Meteorological Controls on Local and Regional Volcanic Ash Dispersal

Volcanic ash has the capacity to impact human health, livestock, crops and infrastructure, including international air traffic. For recent major eruptions, information on the volcanic ash plume has been combined with relatively coarse-resolution meteorological model output to provide simulations of regional ash dispersal, with reasonable success on the scale of hundreds of kilometres. However, to predict and mitigate these impacts locally, significant improvements in modelling capability are required. Here, we present results from a dynamic meteorological-ash-dispersion model configured with sufficient resolution to represent local topographic and convectively-forced flows. We focus on an archetypal volcanic setting, Soufrière, St Vincent, and use the exceptional historical records of the 1902 and 1979 eruptions to challenge our simulations. We find that the evolution and characteristics of ash deposition on St Vincent and nearby islands can be accurately simulated when the wind shear associated with the trade wind inversion and topographically-forced flows are represented. The wind shear plays a primary role and topographic flows a secondary role on ash distribution on local to regional scales. We propose a new explanation for the downwind ash deposition maxima, commonly observed in volcanic eruptions, as resulting from the detailed forcing of mesoscale meteorology on the ash plume

Evaluating the spatial uncertainty of future land abandonment in a mountain valley (Vicdessos, Pyrenees-France) : insights form model parameterization and experiments

International audienceEuropean mountains are particularly sensitive to climatic disruptions and land use changes. The latter leads to high rates of natural reforestation over the last 50 years. Faced with the challenge of predicting possible impacts on ecosystem services, LUCC models offer new opportunities for land managers to adapt or mitigate their strategies. Assessing the spatial uncertainty of future LUCC is crucial for the defintion of sustainable land use strategies. However, the sources of uncertainty may differ, including the input parameters, the model itself, and the wide range of possible futures. The aim of this paper is to propose a method to assess the probability of occurrence of future LUCC that combines the inherent uncertainty of model parameterization and the ensemble uncertainty of the future based scenarios. For this purpose, we used the Land Change Modeler tool to simulate future LUCC on a study site located in the Pyrenees Mountains (France) and 2 scenarios illustratins 2 land use strategies. The model was parameterized with the same driving factors used for its calibration. The defintion of static vs. dynamic and quantitative vs. qualitative (discretized) driving factors, and their combination resulted in 4 parameterizations. The combination of model outcomes produced maps of spatial uncertainty of future LUCC. This work involves literature to future-based LUCC studies. It goes beyond the uncertainty of simulation models by integrating the unceertainty of the future to provide maps to help decision makers and land managers

In situ terminal settling velocity measurements at Stromboli volcano: Input from physical characterization of ash

International audienceAsh particle terminal settling velocity is an important parameter to measure in order to constrain the internal dynamics and dispersion of volcanic ash plumes and clouds that emplace ash fall deposits from which source eruption conditions are often inferred. Whereas the total Particle Size Distribution (PSD) is the main parameter to constrain terminal velocities, many studies have empirically highlighted the need to consider shape descriptors such as the sphericity to refine ash settling velocity as a function of size. During radar remote sensing measurements of weak volcanic plumes erupted from Stromboli volcano in 2015, an optical disdrometer was used to measure the size and settling velocities of falling ash particles over time, while six ash fallout samples were collected at different distances from the vent. We focus on the implications of the physical parameters of ash for settling velocity measurements and modeling. Two-dimensional sizes and shapes are automatically characterized for a large number of ash particles using an optical morpho-grainsizer MORPHOLOGI G3. Manually sieved ash samples show sorted, relatively coarse PSDs spanning a few microns to 2000 μm with modal values between 180 and 355 μm. Although negligible in mass, a population of fine particles below 100 μm form a distinct PSD with a mode around 5–20 μm. All size distributions are offset compared to the indicated sieve limits. Accordingly, we use the diagonal of the upper mesh sizes as the upper sieve limit. Morphologically, particles show decreasing average form factors with increasing circle-equivalent diameter, the latter being equal to 0.92 times the average size between the length and intermediate axes of ash particles. Average particle densities measured by water pycnometry are 2755 ± 50 kg m−3 and increase slightly from 2645 to 2811 kg m−3 with decreasing particle size. The measured settling velocities under laboratory conditions with no wind, <3.6 m s−1, are in agreement with the field velocities expected for particles with sizes <460 μm. The Ganser (1993) empirical model for particle settling velocity is the most consistent with our disdrometer settling velocity results. Converting disdrometer detected size into circle equivalent diameter shows similar PSDs between disdrometer measurements and G3 analyses. This validates volcanological applications of the disdrometer to monitor volcanic ash sizes and settling velocities in real-time with ideal field conditions. We discuss ideal conditions and the measurement limitations. In addition to providing sedimentation rates in-situ, calculated reflectivities can be compared with radar reflectivity measurements inside ash plumes to infer first-order ash plume concentrations. Detailed PSDs and shape parameters may be used to further refine radar-derived mass loading retrievals of the ash plumes

Detection, identification and geographical distribution of European corn borer larval parasitoids using molecular markers

Correspondence:[email protected] audienceBiological control requires specific tools for the accurate detection and identification of natural enemies, and to detect unusual variations in their density, which may follow changes in agricultural practices. Here we have developed specific molecular markers to detect Lydella thompsoni (Herting) and Pseudoperichaeta nigrolineata (Walker) (Diptera: Tachinidae) within the European corn borer, Ostrinia nubilalis (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Crambidae). Primers amplifying fragments of the mitochondrial COI gene were designed following alignment of comparable sequences for a range of parasitoid and host species. Each of the primer pairs proved to be species specific to a tachinid species, amplifying DNA fragments of 191 and 91 bp in length for L. thompsoni and P. nigrolineata, respectively. This DNA-based technique allowed molecular evaluation of parasitism in O. nubilalis natural populations. In order to study the geographical distribution of both species in France, O. nubilalis diapausing larvae in maize stalks were collected from 12 locations over the whole country. The molecular evaluation of parasitism was compared with the traditional method of maintaining O. nubilalis populations in controlled conditions before breaking off the diapause. The percentage parasitism found in both species of tachinids was higher — approximately three times — using the molecular method, suggesting an underestimation by the traditional rearing protocol. Tachinid parasitism on O. nubilalis was not significantly different between geographical areas (south, central and north France) for both species. This study shows that molecular methods are very promising for the correct detection and identification of tachinid parasitoids in natural field population

La conformation bouchère des agneaux. Etude d'après la variabilité génétique entre races

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Benzenesulfonamide-based tricarbonyl rhenium complexes as new carbonic anhydrase ix inhibitors

International audienc