Inferring the age and sex of ancient potters from fingerprint ridge densities: A data-driven, Bayesian mixture modelling approach

The density of epidermal ridges in a fingerprint varies predictably by age and sex. Archaeologists are therefore interested in using recovered fingerprints to learn about the ancient people who produced them. Recent studies focus on estimating the age and sex of individuals by measuring their fingerprints with one of two similar metrics: mean ridge breadth (MRB) or ridge density (RD). Yet these attempts face several critical problems: expected values for adult females and adolescent males are inherently indistinguishable, and inter-assemblage variation caused by biological and technological differences cannot be easily estimated. Each of these factors greatly decreases the accuracy of predictions based on individual prints, and together they condemn this strategy to relative uselessness. However, information in fingerprints from across an assemblage can be pooled to generate a more accurate depiction of potter demographics. We present a new approach to epidermal ridge density analysis using Bayesian mixture models with the following key benefits: Age and sex are estimated more accurately than existing methods by incorporating a data-driven understanding of how demographics and ridge density covary. Uncertainty in demographic estimates is automatically quantified and included in output. The Bayesian framework can be easily adapted to fit the unique needs of different researchers. </p

Modifications of comet materials by the sublimation process: Results from simulation experiments

An active comet like comet Halley loses by sublimation a surface layer of the order of 1 m thickness per perihelion passage. In situ measurements show that water ice is the main constituent which contributes to the gas emission although even more volatile species (CO, NH3, CH4, CO2 etc.) have been identified. Dust particles which were embedded in the ices are carried by the sublimating gases. Measurements of the chemical composition of cometary grains indicate that they are composed of silicates of approximate chondritic composition and refractory carbonaceous material. Comet simulation experiments show that significant modifications of cometary materials occur due to sublimation process in near surface layers which have to be taken into account in order to derive the original state of the material

Modelling long-distance route choice using mobile phone call detail record data: A case study of Senegal

The growing mobile phone penetration rates have led to the emergence of large-scale call detail records (CDRs) that could serve as a low-cost data source for travel behaviour modelling. However, to the best of our knowledge, there is no previous study evaluating the potential of CDR data in the context of route choice behaviour modelling. Being event-driven, the data are discontinuous and only able to yield partial trajectories, thus presenting serious challenges for route identification. This paper proposes techniques for inferring the users' chosen routes or subsets of their likely routes from partial CDR trajectories, as well as data fusion with external sources of information such as route costs, and then adapts the broad choice framework to the current modelling scenario. The model results show that CDR data can capture the expected travel behaviour and the derived values of travel time are found to be realistic for the study area

Volatile Decision Dynamics: Experiments, Stochastic Description, Intermittency Control, and Traffic Optimization

The coordinated and efficient distribution of limited resources by individual decisions is a fundamental, unsolved problem. When individuals compete for road capacities, time, space, money, goods, etc., they normally make decisions based on aggregate rather than complete information, such as TV news or stock market indices. In related experiments, we have observed a volatile decision dynamics and far-from-optimal payoff distributions. We have also identified ways of information presentation that can considerably improve the overall performance of the system. In order to determine optimal strategies of decision guidance by means of user-specific recommendations, a stochastic behavioural description is developed. These strategies manage to increase the adaptibility to changing conditions and to reduce the deviation from the time-dependent user equilibrium, thereby enhancing the average and individual payoffs. Hence, our guidance strategies can increase the performance of all users by reducing overreaction and stabilizing the decision dynamics. These results are highly significant for predicting decision behaviour, for reaching optimal behavioural distributions by decision support systems, and for information service providers. One of the promising fields of application is traffic optimization.Comment: For related work see http://www.helbing.or

Airline customer loyalty through analysis of stated preference

This study evaluates airline customer loyalty and estimates the switching costs for a domestic airline route in Brazil through a stated preference survey. Several structures of discrete choice models were tested to represent the choice of behavior: multinomial logit, mixed logit random coefficients, multinomial logit incorporating systematic variations of preferences, mixed logit error component and mixed logit error component incorporating systematic variations of preferences. The results showed that loyal passengers are more likely to choose the dominant Brazilian airline Tam. The switching costs of passengers loyal to Tam, for this sample, are equivalent to 15% of the fare, which represents much more than the percentage for other companies. These passengers are less sensitive to variations in the fares and incur higher costs not to switch airlines

SOCIAL DESIRABILITY AND CYNICISM: BRIDGING THE ATTITUDE-BEHAVIOR GAP IN CSR SURVEYS

Many consumer-focused corporate social responsibility (CSR) studies suggest a positive link between the responsibility demonstrated by a company and consumers’ intention to favor the company in their purchases. Yet an analogous causal effect between corporate social and financial performances is not evident. This chapter conceptualizes how social desirability and cynicism contribute to the discrepancy between consumers’ attitudes and their actual purchase behavior, and analyzes why consumer choices indicated in surveys do not consistently convert into actions

Accessibility appraisal of integrated land-use-transport strategies: methodology and case study for the Netherlands Randstad area

Conventional approaches to measuring accessibility benefits are not capable of fully measuring the total accessibility benefits of integrated land-use-transport strategies, in which both land-use and transport changes form part of the policy strategy. In this paper a comprehensive methodology for analysing accessibility impacts and accessibility benefits, which is based on location-based and utility-based accessibility measures within an integrated land-use-transport interaction modelling framework, is described and applied in a case study. The case study examines the accessibility benefits and related user benefits of intensive mixed-use strategies aimed at increasing the density and diversity of activities around railway stations for the Randstad area of the Netherlands for the 1996-2030 period. A heavy concentration of activities near railway stations is shown to result in decreasing marginal returns for public-transport users and disbenefits for car users. © 2006 a Pion publication printed in Great Britain

Latent variables and route choice behavior

In the last decade, a broad array of disciplines has shown a general interest in enhancing discrete choice models by considering the incorporation of psychological factors affecting decision making. This paper provides insight into the comprehension of the determinants of route choice behavior by proposing and estimating a hybrid model that integrates latent variable and route choice models. Data contain information about latent variable indicators and chosen routes of travelers driving regularly from home to work in an urban network. Choice sets include alternative routes generated with a branch and bound algorithm. A hybrid model consists of measurement equations, which relate latent variables to measurement indicators and utilities to choice indicators, and structural equations, which link travelers' observable characteristics to latent variables and explanatory variables to utilities. Estimation results illustrate that considering latent variables (i.e., memory, habit, familiarity, spatial ability, time saving skills) alongside traditional variables (e.g., travel time, distance, congestion level) enriches the comprehension of route choice behavior