A systems approach to modeling drivers of conflict and convergence in the Asia-Pacific region in the next 5-25 years

This project is part of a Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment (SMA) for the U.S. Pacific Command (PACOM). This SMA provides planning support for complex operational imperatives requiring multi-agency, multi-disciplinary solutions that are not currently within core PACOM competencies. The Naval Postgraduate School’s (NPS) contribution overcomes the current conceptualization limitations by using a Systems Dynamics (SD) viewpoint to examine U.S.–China relations. This approach employs systems thinking and systems dynamics methodologies to analyze the policy structures of major issues of concern common to U.S. and China which result in non-linear and dynamic behavior over time. The SD model developed is composed of four sectors of common concern: energy demand and resources, demographics and stability, economics, and military actions. These sector models are used to model tension between the U.S. and China over the next 25 years. Tension was chosen as an underlying surrogate to overall U.S.–China relations. A simulation tool was developed assist policy makers in better understanding how the system's variables are related, how they influence one another, and how they are influenced by the system's external environment. The simulation tool also supports decision / policy making by allowing analysts to explore the effects of these variables on potential futures.Assistant Secretary of Defense for Research & Engineering/Rapid Fielding Directorate/Rapid Reaction Technology OfficeAssistant Secretary of Defense for Research & Engineering/Rapid Fielding Directorate/Rapid Reaction Technology Office (ASD R&E/RFD/RRTO).Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited

The allergic sensitization in infants with atopic eczema from different countries

No study has compared allergic sensitization patterns in infants with atopic eczema from different countries. The aim of this study was to investigate the patterns of allergic sensitization in a cohort of infants with atopic eczema participating in a multicentre, international study

Confirmation of the association between high levels of immunoglobulin E food sensitization and eczema in infancy: an international study

Background Studies of Australian infants have reported that more than 80% of those with moderate atopic eczema (AE) have high levels of IgE food sensitization (IgE-FS) that are commonly associated with IgE food allergy. Objectives To explore the relationship between high levels of IgE-FS and AE in a large cohort of young children with eczema participating in a multi-centre, international study. Methods Two thousand one hundred and eighty-four subjects (mean age 17.6 months, range 11.8-25.4; 1246 males) with active eczema from atopic families from 94 centres in 12 countries were studied. Clinical history, Scoring Atopic Dermatitis index as a measure of eczema severity and CAP-FEIA measurements for total IgE and IgE antibody levels to cow milk, egg and peanut were entered into a database. If CAP-FEIA levels exceeded previously reported age-specific cut-off levels for 95% positive predictive values (PPVs) for food allergy, subjects were defined as having high-risk IgE-FS (HR-IgE-FS). Results Serum was available from 2048 patients; 55.5% were atopic. The frequency of HR-IgE-FS to milk, egg and/or peanut was the greatest in patients whose eczema developed in the first 3 months of life and the least in those whose eczema developed after 12 months (P < 0.0001). In a regression analysis to allow for potential confounding factors, children with HR-IgE-FS had the most severe eczema and the youngest age of onset (P < 0.001); 64% of infants with severe eczema of onset-age <3 months had HR-IgE-FS. Conclusion Early-onset severe eczema in infancy was associated with HR-IgE-FS. Clinical implications Food allergies should be routinely assessed in infants with moderate or severe eczema. Capsule summary In eczematous infants, the earlier the age of onset, and the greater the severity of eczema, the greater the frequency of associated high levels of IgE-FS