Перспективи використання теорії катастроф у дослідженні економічних криз

OBJECTIVE: To assess in-hospital and long-term mortality of Dutch ICU patients admitted with an acute intoxication. DESIGN: Cohort of ICU admissions from a national ICU registry linked to records from an insurance claims database. SETTING: Eighty-one ICUs (85% of all Dutch ICUs). PATIENTS: Seven thousand three hundred thirty-one admissions between January 1, 2008, and October 1, 2011. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Kaplan-Meier curves were used to compare the unadjusted mortality of the total intoxicated population and for specific intoxication subgroups based on the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV reasons for admission: 1) alcohol(s), 2) analgesics, 3) antidepressants, 4) street drugs, 5) sedatives, 6) poisoning (carbon monoxide, arsenic, or cyanide), 7) other toxins, and 8) combinations. The case-mix adjusted mortality was assessed by the odds ratio adjusted for age, gender, severity of illness, intubation status, recurrent intoxication, and several comorbidities. The ICU mortality was 1.2%, and the in-hospital mortality was 2.1%. The mortality 1, 3, 6, 12, and 24 months after ICU admission was 2.8%, 4.1%, 5.2%, 6.5%, and 9.3%, respectively. Street drugs had the highest mortality 2 years after ICU admission (12.3%); a combination of different intoxications had the lowest (6.3%). The adjusted observed mortality showed that intoxications with street drugs and "other toxins" have a significant higher mortality 1 month after ICU admission (odds ratio adj = 1.63 and odds ratioadj= 1.73, respectively). Intoxications with alcohol or antidepressants have a significant lower mortality 1 month after ICU admission (odds ratioadj = 0.50 and odds ratioadj = 0.46, respectively). These differences were not found in the adjusted mortality 3 months upward of ICU admission. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the mortality 2 years after ICU admission is relatively low compared with other ICU admissions. The first 3 months after ICU admission there is a difference in mortality between the subgroups, not thereafter. Still, the difference between the in-hospital mortality and the mortality after 2 years is substantial

Body Mass Index and Mortality in Coronavirus Disease 2019 and Other Diseases:A Cohort Study in 35,506 ICU Patients

OBJECTIVES: Obesity is a risk factor for severe coronavirus disease 2019 and might play a role in its pathophysiology. It is unknown whether body mass index is related to clinical outcome following ICU admission, as observed in various other categories of critically ill patients. We investigated the relationship between body mass index and inhospital mortality in critically ill coronavirus disease 2019 patients and in cohorts of ICU patients with non-severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 viral pneumonia, bacterial pneumonia, and multiple trauma. DESIGN: Multicenter observational cohort study. SETTING: Eighty-two Dutch ICUs participating in the Dutch National Intensive Care Evaluation quality registry. PATIENTS: Thirty-five-thousand five-hundred six critically ill patients. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Patient characteristics and clinical outcomes were compared between four cohorts (coronavirus disease 2019, nonsevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 viral pneumonia, bacterial pneumonia, and multiple trauma patients) and between body mass index categories within cohorts. Adjusted analyses of the relationship between body mass index and inhospital mortality within each cohort were performed using multivariable logistic regression. Coronavirus disease 2019 patients were more likely male, had a higher body mass index, lower Pao2/Fio2 ratio, and were more likely mechanically ventilated during the first 24 hours in the ICU compared with the other cohorts. Coronavirus disease 2019 patients had longer ICU and hospital length of stay, and higher inhospital mortality. Odds ratios for inhospital mortality for patients with body mass index greater than or equal to 35 kg/m2 compared with normal weight in the coronavirus disease 2019, nonsevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 viral pneumonia, bacterial pneumonia, and trauma cohorts were 1.15 (0.79- 1.67), 0.64 (0.43-0.95), 0.73 (0.61-0.87), and 0.81 (0.57-1.15), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The obesity paradox, which is the inverse association between body mass index and mortality in critically ill patients, is not present in ICU patients with coronavirus disease 2019-related respiratory failure, in contrast to nonsevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 viral and bacterial respiratory infections

Strain on Scarce Intensive Care Beds Drives Reduced Patient Volumes, Patient Selection, and Worse Outcome: A National Cohort Study

OBJECTIVES: Strain on ICUs during the COVID-19 pandemic required stringent triage at the ICU to distribute resources appropriately. This could have resulted in reduced patient volumes, patient selection, and worse outcome of non-COVID-19 patients, especially during the pandemic peaks when the strain on ICUs was extreme. We analyzed this potential impact on the non-COVID-19 patients. DESIGN: A national cohort study. SETTING: Data of 71 Dutch ICUs. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 120,393 patients in the pandemic non-COVID-19 cohort (from March 1, 2020 to February 28, 2022) and 164,737 patients in the prepandemic cohort (from January 1, 2018 to December 31, 2019). INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Volume, patient characteristics, and mortality were compared between the pandemic non-COVID-19 cohort and the prepandemic cohort, focusing on the pandemic period and its peaks, with attention to strata of specific admission types, diagnoses, and severity. The number of admitted non-COVID-19 patients during the pandemic period and its peaks were, respectively, 26.9% and 34.2% lower compared with the prepandemic cohort. The pandemic non-COVID-19 cohort consisted of fewer medical patients (48.1% vs. 50.7%), fewer patients with comorbidities (36.5% vs. 40.6%), and more patients on mechanical ventilation (45.3% vs. 42.4%) and vasoactive medication (44.7% vs. 38.4%) compared with the prepandemic cohort. Case-mix adjusted mortality during the pandemic period and its peaks was higher compared with the prepandemic period, odds ratios were, respectively, 1.08 (95% CI, 1.05-1.11) and 1.10 (95% CI, 1.07-1.13). CONCLUSIONS: In non-COVID-19 patients the strain on healthcare has driven lower patient volume, selection of fewer comorbid patients who required more intensive support, and a modest increase in the case-mix adjusted mortality

An inverse association between the Mediterranean diet and bladder cancer risk: a pooled analysis of 13 cohort studies

The role of diet in bladder carcinogenesis has yet to be established. To date most studies have investigated dietary components individually, rather than as dietary patterns, which may provide stronger evidence for any influence of diet on bladder carcinogenesis. The Mediterranean diet has been associated with many health benefits, but few studies have investigated its association with bladder cancer risk.Peer reviewe

The association between palliative care team consultation and hospital costs for patients with advanced cancer: An observational study in 12 Dutch hospitals

Background: Early palliative care team consultation has been shown to reduce costs of hospital care. The objective of this study was to investigate the association between palliative care team (PCT) consultation and the content and costs of hospital care in patients with advanced cancer. Material and Methods: A prospective, observational study was conducted in 12 Dutch hospitals.

Hospital mortality is associated with ICU admission time

Previous studies have shown that patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) after "office hours" are more likely to die. However these results have been challenged by numerous other studies. We therefore analysed this possible relationship between ICU admission time and in-hospital mortality in The Netherlands. This article relates time of ICU admission to hospital mortality for all patients who were included in the Dutch national ICU registry (National Intensive Care Evaluation, NICE) from 2002 to 2008. We defined office hours as 08:00-22:00 hours during weekdays and 09:00-18:00 hours during weekend days. The weekend was defined as from Saturday 00:00 hours until Sunday 24:00 hours. We corrected hospital mortality for illness severity at admission using Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score, reason for admission, admission type, age and gender. A total of 149,894 patients were included in this analysis. The relative risk (RR) for mortality outside office hours was 1.059 (1.031-1.088). Mortality varied with time but was consistently higher than expected during "off hours" and lower during office hours. There was no significant difference in mortality between different weekdays of Monday to Thursday, but mortality increased slightly on Friday (RR 1.046; 1.001-1.092). During the weekend the RR was 1.103 (1.071-1.136) in comparison with the rest of the week. Hospital mortality in The Netherlands appears to be increased outside office hours and during the weekends, even when corrected for illness severity at admission. However, incomplete adjustment for certain confounders might still play an important role. Further research is needed to fully explain this differenc

Predicting 30-day mortality in intensive care unit patients with ischaemic stroke or intracerebral haemorrhage

BACKGROUND Stroke patients admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) follow a particular survival pattern with a high short-term mortality, but if they survive the first 30 days, a relatively favourable subsequent survival is observed. OBJECTIVES The development and validation of two prognostic models predicting 30-day mortality for ICU patients with ischaemic stroke and for ICU patients with intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH), analysed separately, based on parameters readily available within 24 h after ICU admission, and with comparison with the existing Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV (APACHE-IV) model. DESIGN Observational cohort study. SETTING All 85 ICUs participating in the Dutch National Intensive Care Evaluation database. PATIENTS All adult patients with ischaemic stroke or ICH admitted to these ICUs between 2010 and 2019. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Models were developed using logistic regressions and compared with the existing APACHE-IV model. Predictive performance was assessed using ROC curves, calibration plots and Brier scores. RESULTS We enrolled 14 303 patients with stroke admitted to ICU: 8422 with ischaemic stroke and 5881 with ICH. Thirty-day mortality was 27% in patients with ischaemic stroke and 41% in patients with ICH. Important factors predicting 30-day mortality in both ischaemic stroke and ICH were age, lowest Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score in the first 24 h, acute physiological disturbance (measured using the Acute Physiology Score) and the application of mechanical ventilation. Both prognostic models showed high discrimination with an AUC 0.85 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.84 to 0.87] for patients with ischaemic stroke and 0.85 (0.83 to 0.86) in ICH. Calibration plots and Brier scores indicated an overall good fit and good predictive performance. The APACHE-IV model predicting 30-day mortality showed similar performance with an AUC of 0.86 (95% CI, 0.85 to 0.87) in ischaemic stroke and 0.87 (0.86 to 0.89) in ICH. CONCLUSION We developed and validated two prognostic models for patients with ischaemic stroke and ICH separately with a high discrimination and good calibration to predict 30-day mortality within 24 h after ICU admission

Quality improvement of Dutch ICUs from 2009 to 2021: A registry based observational study

Purpose: To investigate the development in quality of ICU care over time using the Dutch National Intensive Care Evaluation (NICE) registry. Materials and methods: We included data from all ICU admissions in the Netherlands from those ICUs that submitted complete data between 2009 and 2021 to the NICE registry. We determined median and interquartile range for eight quality indicators. To evaluate changes over time on the indicators, we performed multilevel regression analyses, once without and once with the COVID-19 years 2020 and 2021 included. Additionally we explored between-ICU heterogeneity by calculating intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC). Results: 705,822 ICU admissions from 55 (65%) ICUs were included in the analyses. ICU length of stay (LOS), duration of mechanical ventilation (MV), readmissions, in-hospital mortality, hypoglycemia, and pressure ulcers decreased significantly between 2009 and 2019 (OR <1). After including the COVID-19 pandemic years, the significant change in MV duration, ICU LOS, and pressure ulcers disappeared. We found an ICC ≤0.07 on the quality indicators for all years, except for pressure ulcers with an ICC of 0.27 for 2009 to 2021. Conclusions: Quality of Dutch ICU care based on seven indicators significantly improved from 2009 to 2019 and between-ICU heterogeneity is medium to small, except for pressure ulcers. The COVID-19 pandemic disturbed the trend in quality improvement, but unaltered the between-ICU heterogeneity