Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

Prospective, multicentre study of screening, investigation and management of hyponatraemia after subarachnoid haemorrhage in the UK and Ireland

Background: Hyponatraemia often occurs after subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH). However, its clinical significance and optimal management are uncertain. We audited the screening, investigation and management of hyponatraemia after SAH. Methods: We prospectively identified consecutive patients with spontaneous SAH admitted to neurosurgical units in the United Kingdom or Ireland. We reviewed medical records daily from admission to discharge, 21 days or death and extracted all measurements of serum sodium to identify hyponatraemia (<135 mmol/L). Main outcomes were death/dependency at discharge or 21 days and admission duration >10 days. Associations of hyponatraemia with outcome were assessed using logistic regression with adjustment for predictors of outcome after SAH and admission duration. We assessed hyponatraemia-free survival using multivariable Cox regression. Results: 175/407 (43%) patients admitted to 24 neurosurgical units developed hyponatraemia. 5976 serum sodium measurements were made. Serum osmolality, urine osmolality and urine sodium were measured in 30/166 (18%) hyponatraemic patients with complete data. The most frequently target daily fluid intake was >3 L and this did not differ during hyponatraemic or non-hyponatraemic episodes. 26% (n/N=42/164) patients with hyponatraemia received sodium supplementation. 133 (35%) patients were dead or dependent within the study period and 240 (68%) patients had hospital admission for over 10 days. In the multivariable analyses, hyponatraemia was associated with less dependency (adjusted OR (aOR)=0.35 (95% CI 0.17 to 0.69)) but longer admissions (aOR=3.2 (1.8 to 5.7)). World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies grade I–III, modified Fisher 2–4 and posterior circulation aneurysms were associated with greater hazards of hyponatraemia. Conclusions: In this comprehensive multicentre prospective-adjusted analysis of patients with SAH, hyponatraemia was investigated inconsistently and, for most patients, was not associated with changes in management or clinical outcome. This work establishes a basis for the development of evidence-based SAH-specific guidance for targeted screening, investigation and management of high-risk patients to minimise the impact of hyponatraemia on admission duration and to improve consistency of patient care

Antithrombotic Therapy in Patients with Recent Stroke and Atrial Fibrillation

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common arrhythmia which carries a significant risk of stroke. Secondary prevention, particularly in the acute phase of stroke with anti-thrombotic therapy, has not been validated. The aim of this review is to evaluate the available evidence on the use of antithrombotic therapy in patients with recent stroke who have AF, and suggest a treatment algorithm for the various time points, taking into account both the bleeding and thrombosis risks posed at each stage

A Prospective Study of the Synergistic Effects of Arsenic Exposure and Smoking, Sun Exposure, Fertilizer Use, and Pesticide Use on Risk of Premalignant Skin Lesions in Bangladeshi Men

Skin lesions are classic clinical signs of toxicity due to long-term exposure to arsenic, and they are considered precursors to arsenic-related skin cancer. The authors prospectively evaluated synergisms between effects of arsenic exposure and those of tobacco use, sun exposure, and pesticide and fertilizer use on incident skin lesions using risk factor data from 5,042 men from the Health Effects of Arsenic Longitudinal Study in Araihazar, Bangladesh, which recruited participants from October 2000 to May 2002. Discrete time hazard models were used to estimate measures of synergistic interactions on the additive scale. The authors observed significant synergistic effects between various measures of arsenic exposure and smoking and fertilizer use. The relative excess risks for the interactions between smoking status and arsenic exposure were 0.12 (95% confidence interval: 0.06, 0.19) for water arsenic and 0.11 (95% confidence interval: 0.05, 0.15) for urinary arsenic measures, respectively. Significant synergistic effects were also observed between fertilizer use and water arsenic (relative excess risk for the interaction = 0.06, 95% confidence interval: 0.01, 0.12). This is the first prospective study based on individual-level data that supports a role for smoking and certain occupational risk factors in modification of the effect of long-term arsenic exposure on skin lesions. Understanding differential arsenic susceptibility allows researchers to develop interventions to prevent the health consequences of this massive problem in the Bangladeshi population and beyond

Caldendrin Directly Couples Postsynaptic Calcium Signals to Actin Remodeling in Dendritic Spines

Compartmentalization of calcium-dependent plasticity allows for rapid actin remodeling in dendritic spines. However, molecular mechanisms for the spatio-temporal regulation of filamentous actin (F-actin) dynamics by spinous Ca2+-transients are still poorly defined. We show that the postsynaptic Ca2+ sensor caldendrin orchestrates nano-domain actin dynamics that are essential for actin remodeling in the early phase of long-term potentiation (LTP). Steep elevation in spinous [Ca2+]i disrupts an intramolecular interaction of caldendrin and allows cortactin binding. The fast on and slow off rate of this interaction keeps cortactin in an active conformation, and protects F-actin at the spine base against cofilin-induced severing. Caldendrin gene knockout results in higher synaptic actin turnover, altered nanoscale organization of spinous F-actin, defects in structural spine plasticity, LTP, and hippocampus-dependent learning. Collectively, the data indicate that caldendrin-cortactin directly couple [Ca2+]i to preserve a minimal F-actin pool that is required for actin remodeling in the early phase of LTP

Caldendrin Directly Couples Postsynaptic Calcium Signals to Actin Remodeling in Dendritic Spines

Compartmentalization of calcium-dependent plasticity allows for rapid actin remodeling in dendritic spines. However, molecular mechanisms for the spatio-temporal regulation of filamentous actin (F-actin) dynamics by spinous Ca2+-transients are still poorly defined. We show that the postsynaptic Ca2+ sensor caldendrin orchestrates nano-domain actin dynamics that are essential for actin remodeling in the early phase of long-term potentiation (LTP). Steep elevation in spinous [Ca2+]i disrupts an intramolecular interaction of caldendrin and allows cortactin binding. The fast on and slow off rate of this interaction keeps cortactin in an active conformation, and protects F-actin at the spine base against cofilin-induced severing. Caldendrin gene knockout results in higher synaptic actin turnover, altered nanoscale organization of spinous F-actin, defects in structural spine plasticity, LTP, and hippocampus-dependent learning. Collectively, the data indicate that caldendrin-cortactin directly couple [Ca2+]i to preserve a minimal F-actin pool that is required for actin remodeling in the early phase of LTP