Parametric uncertainty in complex environmental models: a cheap emulation approach for models with high-dimensional output

In order to understand underlying processes governing environmental and physical processes, and predict future outcomes, a complex computer model is frequently required to simulate these dynamics. However there is inevitably uncertainty related to the exact parametric form or the values of such parameters to be used when developing these simulators, with \emph{ranges} of plausible values prevalent in the literature. Systematic errors introduced by failing to account for these uncertainties have the potential to have a large effect on resulting estimates in unknown quantities of interest. Due to the complexity of these types of models, it is often unfeasible to run large numbers of training runs that are usually required for full statistical emulators of the environmental processes. We therefore present a method for accounting for uncertainties in complex environmental simulators without the need for very large numbers of training runs and illustrate the method through an application to the Met Office's atmospheric transport model NAME. We conclude that there are two principle parameters that are linked with variability in NAME outputs, namely the free tropospheric turbulence parameter and particle release height. Our results suggest the former should be significantly larger than is currently implemented as a default in NAME, whilst changes in the latter most likely stem from inconsistencies between the model specified ground height at the observation locations and the true height at this location. Estimated discrepancies from independent data are consistent with the discrepancy between modelled and true ground height

Measurements within the Pacific-Indian oceans throughflow region

Two hydrographic ... and trichlorofluoromethane (F-11) sections were carried out between the Australian continental shelf and Indonesia, in August 1989, on board the R.V. "Marion Dufresne". The sections lie in the easternmost part of the Indian Ocean where the throughflow between the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean emerges. They allow us to describe the features of the water-property and circulation fields of the throughflow at its entrance in the Indian Ocean. Between the Australian continental shelf and Bali, the Subtropical and Central waters are separated from the waters of the Indonesian seas by a sharp hydrological front, located around 13°30S, below the thermocline down to 700 m. Near the coast of Bali, upwelling occurs in the near-surface layer under the effect of the Southeast monsoon; at depth, between 300 m to more than 800 m, a water mass of Northern Indian Ocean origin was present. (D'après résumé d'auteur

Study of the lineshape of the chi(c1) (3872) state

A study of the lineshape of the chi(c1) (3872) state is made using a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 3 fb(-1) collected in pp collisions at center-of-mass energies of 7 and 8 TeV with the LHCb detector. Candidate chi(c1)(3872) and psi(2S) mesons from b-hadron decays are selected in the J/psi pi(+)pi(-) decay mode. Describing the lineshape with a Breit-Wigner function, the mass splitting between the chi(c1 )(3872) and psi(2S) states, Delta m, and the width of the chi(c1 )(3872) state, Gamma(Bw), are determined to be (Delta m=185.598 +/- 0.067 +/- 0.068 Mev,)(Gamma BW=1.39 +/- 0.24 +/- 0.10 Mev,) where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second systematic. Using a Flatte-inspired model, the mode and full width at half maximum of the lineshape are determined to be (mode=3871.69+0.00+0.05 MeV.)(FWHM=0.22-0.04+0.13+0.07+0.11-0.06-0.13 MeV, ) An investigation of the analytic structure of the Flatte amplitude reveals a pole structure, which is compatible with a quasibound D-0(D) over bar*(0) state but a quasivirtual state is still allowed at the level of 2 standard deviations

Measurement of the CKM angle γγ in B±→DK±B^\pm\to D K^\pm and B±→Dπ±B^\pm \to D π^\pm decays with D→KS0h+h−D \to K_\mathrm S^0 h^+ h^-

A measurement of $CP$-violating observables is performed using the decays $B^\pm\to D K^\pm$ and $B^\pm\to D \pi^\pm$, where the $D$ meson is reconstructed in one of the self-conjugate three-body final states $K_{\mathrm S}\pi^+\pi^-$ and $K_{\mathrm S}K^+K^-$ (commonly denoted $K_{\mathrm S} h^+h^-$). The decays are analysed in bins of the $D$-decay phase space, leading to a measurement that is independent of the modelling of the $D$-decay amplitude. The observables are interpreted in terms of the CKM angle $\gamma$. Using a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of $9\,\text{fb}^{-1}$ collected in proton-proton collisions at centre-of-mass energies of $7$, $8$, and $13\,\text{TeV}$ with the LHCb experiment, $\gamma$ is measured to be $\left(68.7^{+5.2}_{-5.1}\right)^\circ$. The hadronic parameters $r_B^{DK}$, $r_B^{D\pi}$, $\delta_B^{DK}$, and $\delta_B^{D\pi}$, which are the ratios and strong-phase differences of the suppressed and favoured $B^\pm$ decays, are also reported