La permisión del mal en santo Tomás

El propósito de nuestro artículo es analizar el concepto de permisión divina del mal en la obra de santo Tomás de Aquino, especialmente en referencia al mal físico y al mal moral de culpa. Subrayamos la importancia de distinguir los diversos planos en los que el autor expone la cuestión, a fin de evitar lecturas parciales o demasiado unívocas que podrían producir una incorrecta interpretación de la enseñanza del Doctor Angélico

Totalitarismos invisibles y crisis de la identidad en el siglo XXI

This article is a written version of the lecture given in the forum Challenges for The New Generation 2022. From the general positive opinion about democracy in today´s world, inquiries about its basis. It mentions how from the relativism that is proposed by some authors and a controversial conception of respect of difference appear metaphysical and psychological conditions for the crisis of identity and a totalitarian domination that nowadays is not easily identifiable.El presente artículo es la versión escrita de la ponencia realizada en el foro Desafíos para una Nueva Generación 2022. A partir de la generalizada valoración positiva de la democracia en el mundo actual, indaga sobre su fundamento. Señala cómo desde el relativismo que algunos autores proponen y una discutible concepción del respeto por la diferencia se generan, desde lo metafísico y lo psicológico, las condiciones para la pérdida de la identidad y la dominación totalitaria, con la particularidad de que esta resulta en tiempos actuales menos identificable

Studien zur Totalsynthese von Pristinamycin IIA und Synthese biologischer Synthons

Im Rahmen der vorliegenden Arbeit wurden zwei Makrozyklisierungsvorläufer CAB und ABC zum totalsynthetischen Aufbau des Streptogramins Pristinamycin IIA in Betracht gezogen. Als gemeinsamer Vorläufer diente Amid AB, welches in einer neuartigen Reaktionssequenz in hoher Ausbeute stereoselektiv über neun Stufen (längste lineare Sequenz, LLS) aus den zwei Bausteinen A und B dargestellt werden konnte. Obwohl eine direkte Veresterung des AB-Bausteins mit dem neuartigen Dehydroprolin-Baustein C nicht möglich war, lieferte eine sequenzielle Route CAB in hoher Ausbeute (LLS: 16, 18%). Der Aufbau des ABC-Zyklisierungsvorläufers war mittels SmI2-vermittelter BARBIER- bzw. NHTK-Reaktion zwischen AB und C hingegen nicht möglich. Unter ähnlichen Bedingungen war die Makrozyklisierung des CAB-Vorläufers ebenfalls nicht erfolgreich. Im Gegensatz zum Vorläufer nach PANEK et al., eignet sich Dehydroprolin-CAB nicht als Substrat in einer reduktiven Addition für die Makrozyklisierung zum 23-gliedrigen Ring. Nach theoretischer Konformationsanalyse liegt die Vermutung nahe, dass die fehlende Präkoordination durch H-Brücken die Makrozyklisierung drastisch erschwert. Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit konnte jedoch maßgeblich zu neuen Syntheserouten intermediärer Bausteine in hohen Ausbeuten und Stereoselektivitäten beigetragen und das Verständnis um die Chemie der Streptogramine erweitert werden. In Zusammenarbeit mit der AG ERB des Max-Plank- Instituts Marburg die Inkorporation von Extender-Substraten in die Phoslactomycin (Pn) PKS und 6-Deoxyerythronolid-B-Synthase (DEBS) untersucht. Dazu wurden biologische Synthons bereitgestellt, welche anschließend im downstream-processing angewendet wurden bzw. als Referenzproben dienten. Im Zuge der Selektivitätsuntersuchungen in der Dehydratase-Domäne der Pn PKS, konnten (Z,Z)- bzw. (E,Z)-Dienester und β-Hydroxyester dargestellt werden. Im zweiten Teilprojekt wurden Methyl-, Butyl- und Hexyl-substituierte Lactone als Referenzproben bereitgestellt. Insgesamt konnten alle Synthons im Rahmen des Kollaborationsprojekts stereoselektiv und in guten Ausbeuten synthetisiert werden. Deren anschließende Implementierung durch die AG ERB, sowohl in Pn PKS- als auch DEBS-Essays war ebenfalls erfolgreich, wobei Teile der Ergebnisse in einer gemeinsamen Publikation der Arbeitskreise KOERT und ERB veröffentlicht werden konnten

Comparative transcriptome analysis of trout skin pigment cells

Background Enormous variability in skin colour and patterning is a characteristic of teleost fish, including Salmonidae fishes, which present themselves as a suitable model for studying mechanisms of pigment patterning. In order to screen for candidate genes potentially involved in the specific skin pigment pattern in marble trout (labyrinthine skin pattern) and brown trout (spotted skin pattern), we conducted comparative transcriptome analysis between differently pigmented dermis sections of the adult skin of the two species. Results Differentially expressed genes (DEGs) possibly associated with skin pigment pattern were identified. The expression profile of 27 DEGs was further tested with quantitative real-time PCR on a larger number of samples. Expression of a subset of ten of these genes was analysed in hybrid (marble x brown) trout individuals and compared with the complexity of their skin pigment pattern. A correlation between the phenotype and the expression profile assessed for hybrid individuals was detected for four (gja5, clcn2, cdkn1a and tjp1) of the ten candidate genes tested. The potential role of these genes in skin pigment pattern maintenance is discussed. Conclusions Our results indicate that the maintenance of different pigment patterns in trout is dependent upon specific communication—involving gap junctions, tight junctions and ion channels—between chromatophores present in differentially pigmented skin regions.publishedVersio

Stochastic system dynamics modelling for climate change water scarcity assessment of a reservoir in the Italian Alps

Water management in mountain regions is facing multiple pressures due to climate change and anthropogenic activities. This is particularly relevant for mountain areas where water abundance in the past allowed for many anthropogenic activities, exposing them to future water scarcity. Here stochastic system dynamics modelling (SDM) was implemented to explore water scarcity conditions affecting the stored water and turbined outflows in the Santa Giustina (S. Giustina) reservoir (Autonomous Province of Trento, Italy). The analysis relies on a model chain integrating outputs from climate change simulations into a hydrological model, the output of which was used to test and select statistical models in an SDM for replicating turbined water and stored volume within the S. Giustina dam reservoir. The study aims at simulating future conditions of the S. Giustina reservoir in terms of outflow and volume as well as implementing a set of metrics to analyse volume extreme conditions.Average results on 30-year slices of simulations show that even under the short-term RCP4.5 scenario (2021-2050) future reductions for stored volume and turbined outflow are expected to be severe compared to the 14-year baseline (1999-2004 and 2009-2016; -24.9 % of turbined outflow and -19.9 % of stored volume). Similar reductions are expected also for the long-term RCP8.5 scenario (2041-2070; -26.2 % of turbined outflow and -20.8 % of stored volume), mainly driven by the projected precipitations having a similar but lower trend especially in the last part of the 2041-2070 period. At a monthly level, stored volume and turbined outflow are expected to increase for December to March (outflow only), January to April (volume only) depending on scenarios and up to +32.5 % of stored volume in March for RCP8.5 for 2021-2050. Reductions are persistently occurring for the rest of the year from April to November for turbined outflows (down to -56.3 % in August) and from May to December for stored volume (down to -44.1 % in June). Metrics of frequency, duration and severity of future stored volume values suggest a general increase in terms of low volume below the 10th and 20th percentiles and a decrease of high-volume conditions above the 80th and 90th percentiles. These results point at higher percentage increases in frequency and severity for values below the 10th percentile, while volume values below the 20th percentile are expected to last longer. Above the 90th percentile, values are expected to be less frequent than baseline conditions, while showing smaller severity reductions compared to values above the 80th percentile. These results call for the adoption of adaptation strategies focusing on water demand reductions. Months of expected increases in water availability should be considered periods for water accumulation while preparing for potential persistent reductions of stored water and turbined outflows. This study provides results and methodological insights that can be used for future SDM upscaling to integrate different strategic mountain socio-economic sectors (e.g. hydropower, agriculture and tourism) and prepare for potential multi-risk conditions

Comparative Analysis of System Dynamics and Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks Modelling for Water Systems Management

Copyright © 2012 Springer. The final publication is available at link.springer.comThis paper presents a comparative analysis of System Dynamics Modelling (SDM) and Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks (OOBN). Both techniques are extensively used for water resources modelling due to their flexibility, effectiveness in assessing different management options, ease of operation and suitability for encouraging stakeholder involvement. Conversely, both approaches have several important differences that make them complementary. For example, while SDM is more suitable for simulating the feedback dynamics of processes, OOBN modelling is a powerful tool for modelling systems with uncertain inputs (or outputs) characterised by probability distributions. This comparative analysis is applied to the Kairouan aquifer system, Tunisia, where the aquifer plays an essential role for socio-economic development in the region. Both models produced comparable results using baseline data, and show their complementarity through a suite of scenario tests. It is shown that reducing pumping of groundwater to coastal cities may prove the key to reducing the current aquifer deficit, though local demand reduction must be considered to preserve the agricultural economy. It is suggested that water management assessment should be tackled using both approaches to complement each other, adding depth and insight, and giving a more coherent picture of the problem being addressed, allowing for robust policy decisions to be made

Bayesian analysis of the species-specific lengthening of the growing season in two European countries and the influence of an insect pest

A recent lengthening of the growing season in mid and higher latitudes of the northern hemisphere is reported as a clear indicator for climate change impacts. Using data from Germany (1951–2003) and Slovenia (1961–2004), we study whether changes in the start, end, and length of the growing season differ among four deciduous broad-leaved tree species and countries, how the changes are related to temperature changes, and what might be the confounding effects of an insect attack. The functional behaviour of the phenological and climatological time series and their trends are not analysed by linear regression, but by a new Bayesian approach taking into account different models for the functional description (one change-point, linear, constant models). We find advanced leaf unfolding in both countries with the same species order (oak > horse chestnut, beech, and birch). However, this advance is non linear over time and more apparent in Germany with clear change-points in the late 1970s, followed by marked advances (on average 3.67 days decade−1 in the 2000s). In Slovenia, we find a more gradual advance of onset dates (on average 0.8 days decade−1 in the 2000s). Leaf colouring of birch, beech, and oak has been slightly delayed in the last 3 decades, especially in Germany, however with no clear functional behaviour. Abrupt changes in leaf colouring dates of horse chestnut with recent advancing onset dates can be linked across countries to damage by a newly emerging pest, the horse chestnut leaf-miner (Cameraria ohridella). The lengthening of the growing season, more distinct in Germany than in Slovenia (on average 4.2 and 1.0 days decade−1 in the 2000s, respectively), exhibits the same species order in both countries (oak > birch > beech). Damage by horse chestnut leaf-miner leads to reduced lengthening (Germany) and drastic shortening (Slovenia) of the horse chestnut growing season (-12 days decade−1 in the 2000s). Advanced spring leaf unfolding and lengthening of the growing season of oak, beech and birch are highly significantly related to increasing March temperatures in both countries. Only beech and oak leaf unfolding in Germany, which is generally observed later in the year than that of the other two species, is more closely correlated with April temperatures, which comparably exhibit marked change-points at the end of the 1970s

Assessment of the effectiveness of a risk-reduction measure on pluvial flooding and economic loss in Eindhoven, the Netherlands

Open Access journalCopyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.12th International Conference on Computing and Control for the Water Industry, CCWI2013Cities are increasingly assessing and reducing pluvial flood risk. Quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of risk-reduction measures is required. We use hydraulic simulation with GIS-based financial analysis to assess the pluvial flood risk for Eindhoven, The Netherlands. Analysis is carried out for four scenarios: two rainfall events, with and without separation of the combined sewer-stormwater network. Flooding statistics show how the risk-reduction measure impacts local flooding. Financial analysis demonstrates the saving resulting from the risk-reduction measure. Expected annual damage is reduced by c.€130,500. City authorities are better equipped in making cost-benefit decisions regarding implementation of pluvial flood risk-reduction measures.EC FP7 project PREPARED: Enabling Chang

Assessing Financial Loss due to Pluvial Flooding and the Efficacy of Risk-Reduction Measures in the Residential Property Sector

The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11269-014-0833-6A novel quantitative risk assessment for residential properties at risk of pluvial flooding in Eindhoven, The Netherlands, is presented. A hydraulic model belonging to Eindhoven was forced with low return period rainfall events (2, 5 and 10-year design rainfalls). Three scenarios were analysed for each event: a baseline and two risk-reduction scenarios. GIS analysis identified areas where risk-reduction measures had the greatest impact. Financial loss calculations were carried out using fixed-threshold and probabilistic approaches. Under fixed-threshold assessment, per-event Expected Annual Damage (EAD) reached €38.2 m, with reductions of up to €454,000 resulting from risk-reduction measures. Present costs of flooding reach €1.43bn when calculated over a 50-year period. All net-present value figures for the risk-reduction measures are negative. Probabilistic assessment yielded EAD values up to more than double those of the fixed-threshold analysis which suggested positive net-present value. To the best of our knowledge, the probabilistic method based on the distribution of doorstep heights has never before been introduced for pluvial flood risk assessment. Although this work suggests poor net-present value of risk-reduction measures, indirect impacts of flooding, damage to infrastructure and the potential impacts of climate change were omitted. This work represents a useful first step in helping Eindhoven prepare for future pluvial flooding. The analysis is based on software and tools already available at the municipality, eliminating the need for software upgrading or training. The approach is generally applicable to similar cities.European Commission Seventh Framework Program (EC FP7

Operational resilience of reservoirs to climate change, agricultural demand, and tourism: A case study from Sardinia

Copyright © 2015 Elsevier. NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Science of the Total Environment. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Science of the Total Environment (2015), DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.04.066Many (semi-) arid locations globally, and particularly islands, rely heavily on reservoirs for water supply. Some reservoirs are particularly vulnerable to climate and development changes (e.g. population change, tourist growth, hydropower demands). Irregularities and uncertainties in the fluvial regime associated with climate change and the continuous increase in water demand by different sectors will add new challenges to the management and to the resilience of these reservoirs. The resilience of vulnerable reservoirs must be studied in detail to prepare for and mitigate potential impacts of these changes. In this paper, a reservoir balance model is developed and presented for the Pedra e' Othoni reservoir in Sardinia, Italy, to assess resilience to climate and development changes. The model was first calibrated and validated, then forced with extensive ensemble climate data for representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, agricultural data, and with four socio-economic development scenarios. Future projections show a reduction in annual reservoir inflow and an increase in demand, mainly in the agricultural sector. Under no scenario is reservoir resilience significantly affected, the reservoir always achieves refill. However, this occurs at the partial expenses of hydropower production with implications for the production of renewable energy. There is also the possibility of conflict between the agricultural sector and hydropower sector for diminishing water supply. Pedra e' Othoni reservoir shows good resilience to future change mostly because of the disproportionately large basin feeding it. However this is not the case of other Sardinian reservoirs and hence a detailed resilience assessment of all reservoirs is needed, where development plans should carefully account for the trade-offs and potential conflicts among sectors. For Sardinia, the option of physical connection between reservoirs is available, as are alternative water supply measures. Those reservoirs at risk to future change should be identified, and mitigating measures investigated.European Commission Seventh Framework Project ‘WASSERMed’ (Water Availability and Security in Southern EuRope and the Mediterranean