Philipps University of Marburg

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    12164 research outputs found

    Performing without Pressure? The Effect of Ghost Games on Effort- and Skill-based Tasks in the Football Bundesliga

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    We analyze the natural experiment of ghost games in the 2019/2020 season of the German football Bundesliga and confirm previous studies showing that the home advantage diminishes if the stadium is empty. However, our paper is the first that distinguishes between effort- and skill-based tasks in this setting. In line with behavioral economics, we observe that a supportive audience has a positive effect on effort-based performance but a negative effect on some offensive skill-based performance measures

    Whose Inflation Rates Matter Most? A DSGE Model and Machine Learning Approach to Monetary Policy in the Euro Area

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    In the euro area, monetary policy is conducted by a single central bank for 20 member countries. However, countries are heterogeneous in their economic development, including their inflation rates. This paper combines a New Keynesian model and a neural network to assess whether the European Central Bank (ECB) conducted monetary policy between 2002 and 2022 according to the weighted average of the inflation rates within the European Monetary Union (EMU) or reacted more strongly to the inflation rate developments of certain EMU countries. The New Keynesian model first generates data which is used to train and evaluate several machine learning algorithms. We find that a neural network performs best out-of-sample. We use this algorithm to (i) generally classify historical EMU data, and to (ii) determine the exact weight on the inflation rate of EMU members in each quarter of the past two decades. Our findings suggest disproportional emphasis of the ECB on the inflation rates of EMU members that exhibited high inflation rate volatility for the vast majority of the time frame considered (80%), with a median inflation weight of 67% on these countries. We show that these results stem from a tendency of the ECB to react more strongly to countries whose inflation rates exhibit greater deviations from their long-term trend

    Forecasting Market Diffusion of Innovative Battery-Electric and Conventional Vehicles in Germany under Model Uncertainty

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    In this research paper accuracies (percentage errors, MAPE) of different procedures (growth, ARIMA(X), exponential smoothing and deterministic trend models) in forecasting new passenger car registrations in Germany are presented. It is found that the Logistic Growth Model provides rather accurate predictions of the number of new registrations (total number, which still refers to predominantly conventional gasoline and diesel vehicles) for the forecast period of the study. However, the Bass diffusion model is recommended for predicting the new registration numbers of the innovative battery-electric technology. Furthermore, it is exemplarified that the Bass coefficient of imitation q, in contrast to the coefficient of innovation p, is robust to a variation of the assumed market potential M. Therefore, q should also contribute to a stable short-term forecast (given a variation of M), provided that a period in the early phase of the product life cycle is considered. The study also shows that with the bulk of the procedures, percentage forecast errors are obtained which lie in a narrow margin for the established product passenger car, but not for the innovative battery-electric propulsion technology. So while the careful selection of the forecasting model seems rather negligible for the established product, it is essential for the innovative product. In addition, new registration figures in the German federal states were forecasted, which in turn were used to calculate pooled forecasts for Germany. In general, no increase in forecast accuracy was achieved by means of pooling compared with direct forecasting (i.e. from the national time series)

    Who Supports War for Justice and Why? Evidence from Russia and Ukraine

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    We study the acceptability of war as a necessary tool to obtain justice under certain conditions across individuals from Russia and Ukraine in 2011. We discuss which socio-economic, political and individual characteristics shape the support for using destructive military force to achieve justice. Overall, the acceptance of war for justice is relatively low in both countries. Using logistic regressions, we found that there are characteristics that significantly reduce the support for war for justice in both countries, such as gender and level of happiness. Support in both countries is also significantly larger among respondents who are interested in politics and are married. Additionally, there are conditions which produce different results between the countries, such as religiosity, country aims, employment, confidence in the government, concern over possible war and political orientation

    Lockdown Spillovers

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    Lockdowns imposed to fight the Covid-19 pandemic have cross-border effects. In this paper, we estimate the empirical magnitude of lockdown spillovers in a set of panel local projections. We use daily indicators of economic activity such as stock returns, effective exchange rates, NO2 emissions, mobility and maritime container trade. Lockdown shocks originating in the most important trading partners have a strong and significant adverse effect on economic activity in the home economy. For stock prices and exports, the spillovers can even be larger than the effect of domestic lockdown shocks. The results are robust with respect to alternative country weights used to construct foreign shocks, i.e. weights based on foreign direct investment or the connectedness through value chains. We find that lockdown spillovers have been par-ticularly strong during the first wave of the pandemic. Countries with a higher export share are particularly exposed to lockdown spillovers

    Verbal memory depends on structural hippocampal subfield volume

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    Objective: To investigate correlates in hippocampal subfield volume and verbal and visual memory function in patients with temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE), mild amnestic cognitive impairment (MCI) and heathy participants (HP). Methods: 50 right-handed participants were included in this study; 11 patients with temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE), 18 patients with mild amnestic cognitive impairment (MCI) and 21 healthy participants (HP). Verbal memory performance was evaluated via the verbal memory test (VLMT) and visual memory performance via the diagnosticum for cerebral damage (DCM). Hippocampal subfield volumes of T1-weighted Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) scans were computed with FreeSurfer version 7.1. Stepwise correlation analyses were performed between the left hippocampal subfield volumes and learning, free recall, consolidation and recognition performance scores of the VLMT as well as between right hippocampal subfield volumes and visual memory performance. Results: The volume of the left subicular complex was highly correlated to learning performance (β = 0.284; p = 0.042) and free recall performance in the VLMT (β = 0.434; p = 0.001). The volume of the left CA3 subfield showed a significant correlation to the consolidation performance in the VLMT (β = 0.378; p = 0.006) and recognition performance in the VLMT (β = 0.290; p = 0.037). There was no significant correlation identified between the right hippocampal subfields and the visual memory performance. Conclusion: The results of this study show verbal memory correlates with hippocampal subfields and support the role of left subiculum and left CA2/CA3 in verbal memory performance

    How to Enable Participation until the End of Life? A Survey of German Occupational Therapists Working in Palliative Care

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    Background: In palliative care, the needs of people with life-limiting illnesses must be addressed with the support of a multidisciplinary team. Occupational therapy is a profession that focuses on activity and participation. In Germany, there are no surveys to date that demonstrate the work of occupational therapists in palliative care and which problems can occur in this field. Aim: The aim of this study is to describe the work and problems of occupational therapists in German palliative care. Design: The survey consists of 17 questions and could be conducted anonymously. Descriptive statistics and a thematic analysis of the free text responses were used to analyze data. Setting/participants: Respondents were German occupational therapists who are members of the “German Association of Occupational Therapy”. Results: A total of 281 valid responses were evaluated, of which 120 respondents work in the context of palliative care. Most of them provide needs-based therapies (74%), train relatives (69%), or help patients with positioning (69%) or relaxation therapy (66%). Four themes were developed in the free text responses that describe problems in the utilization of occupational therapy in palliative care. Conclusions: The evaluation shows that occupational therapy in palliative care offers a variety of possible applications and approaches. The findings urgently need to be implemented in daily practice to improve the status of occupational therapists. This requires appropriate billing modalities and clear guidelines. There is still a significant need for research and training in this area

    Effects of heterogeneity on the ecological diversity and redundancy of forest fauna

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    Heterogeneity in forests might promote biodiversity not only through an increase in niche volume but also through other processes, such as an increase in resources and their spatial distribution. However, negative relationships between heterogeneity and biodiversity have also been observed, which may indicate that heterogeneity acts as a filter for some species. This study examined the effects of different facets of heterogeneity in forest stands, i.e. deadwood, plant diversity, forest stand structure, and micro-scale topography, on the ecological (functional-phylogenetic) diversity and redundancy of nine animal groups: moths, true bugs, different functional groups of beetles, spiders, birds, and bats. Overall, we found positive effects of heterogeneity on ecological diversity and redundancy. Although the effect of heterogeneity at the local scale was moderate compared with the general effect of region, greater heterogeneity could be beneficial to some species groups and lead to more resilient species communities

    Geringqualifizierte Arbeit, Marktlöhne und Sozialpolitik: Konzepte für Deutschland

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    Die Diskussion der Reformvorschläge in der deutschen Kombilohndiskussion hat gezeigt, dass hohe Beschäftigungseffekte und fiskalische Einsparungen im Wesentlichen durch die Absenkung des Grundsicherungsniveaus zu erwarten sind. Mikrosimulationsstudien zeigen – wenig überraschend –, dass die Beschäftigung umso mehr zunimmt und der Staat um so mehr einspart, je höher die Absenkung des Grundsicherungsniveaus ausfällt. Will man jedoch zusätzliche finanzielle Anreize in ein System mit hohem Grundsicherungsniveau einführen, dann sind sehr hohe fiskalische Belastungen in der Einführungsphase zu erwarten. Es ist schwer vorstellbar, dass die hohen Einführungskosten durch zusätzliche Beschäftigung und den damit verbundenen staatlichen Einnahmen überkompensiert werden können. Schwierig wird die Kombilohndiskussion erst dann, wenn man Reformen ohne Absenkung des Grundsicherungsniveaus umsetzen will. Dabei lassen sich grundsätzlich zwei Wege beschreiten. Entweder wird die Arbeitspflicht der Hilfeempfänger massiv eingefordert. Im Extremfall wird auf alle Kombilohnelemente verzichtet und ausschließlich gemeinnützige Beschäftigung als Gegenleistung eingefordert (Workfare). Oder es werden Lohnsubventionen an Arbeitgeber gezahlt. Aber auch diese beiden Wege sind nicht unproblematisch. So ist bei einem reinen Workfare-Konzept, das in einen unflexiblen Arbeitsmarkt eingeführt wird, zu befürchten, dass hohe fiskalische Lasten durch einen dauerhaften und umfangreichen gemeinnützigen Sektor entstehen. Weiterhin ist ein Sog in Richtung Erwerbsunfähigkeit zu erwarten, wenn die Hilfeleistungen bei Erwerbsunfähigkeit nicht deutlich unter der bei Erwerbsfähigkeit liegen. Dagegen sind bei ausschließlicher Fokussierung auf die Senkung der Arbeitskosten der Unternehmen durch Lohnsubventionen zu befürchten, dass Mitnahme- und Verdrängungseffekte eine zunehmende Rolle spielen – und letztlich ein erheblicher Teil der Stellen im Niedriglohnbereich dauerhaft subventioniert werden muss. Trotz aller Schwierigkeiten: Die Reform der Grundsicherung muss weiter vorangetrieben werden. Viel versprechend könnte eine Kombination von positiv evaluierten Workfare-, Kombilohn- und Lohnsubventionselementen sein, wobei sich deren Wirkungen durch Ausnutzen von Komplementaritäten sogar noch verstärken ließen. Einschränkend ist zu vermerken, dass die existierenden Evaluationsverfahren, stets nur einen Teil der zu erwartenden Wirkungen abschätzen können – der Politik bleibt eine Restunsicherheit nicht erspart

    Evidence for the “Suicide by Firearm” Proxy for Gun Ownership from Austria

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    When attempting to measure gun ownership in the United States, the problem of missing administrative data arises, making it necessary to find a valid proxy. Several such proxies are employed in economic studies, one of which is the fraction of “suicides by firearm” of “all suicides” (FSS). My work validates this proxy from out-of-sample data, namely, Austrian administrative data on firearm licenses. I also reevaluate, with appropriate statistical methods, a result on firearms and suicide from the medical that is often used for public policy advocacy. This result is, unfortunately, heavily biased due to ignoring a well-known fallacy and thus can be only partially confirmed


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