Quantification of the Arctic Sea ice‐driven atmospheric circulation variability in coordinated large ensemble simulations

A coordinated set of large ensemble atmosphere‐only simulations is used to investigate the impacts of observed Arctic sea ice‐driven variability (SIDV) on the atmospheric circulation during 1979–2014. The experimental protocol permits separating Arctic SIDV from internal variability and variability driven by other forcings including sea surface temperature and greenhouse gases. The geographic pattern of SIDV is consistent across seven participating models, but its magnitude strongly depends on ensemble size. Based on 130 members, winter SIDV is ~0.18 hPa2 for Arctic‐averaged sea level pressure (~1.5% of the total variance), and ~0.35 K2 for surface air temperature (~21%) at interannual and longer timescales. The results suggest that more than 100 (40) members are needed to separate Arctic SIDV from other components for dynamical (thermodynamical) variables, and insufficient ensemble size always leads to overestimation of SIDV. Nevertheless, SIDV is 0.75–1.5 times as large as the variability driven by other forcings over northern Eurasia and Arctic

Reconciling conflicting evidence for the cause of the observed early 21st century Eurasian cooling

It is now well established that the Arctic is warming at a faster rate than the global average. This warming, which has been accompanied by a dramatic decline in sea ice, has been linked to cooling over the Eurasian subcontinent over recent decades, most dramatically during the period 1998–2012. This is a counter-intuitive impact under global warming given that land regions should warm more than ocean (and the global average). Some studies have proposed a causal teleconnection from Arctic sea-ice retreat to Eurasian wintertime cooling; other studies argue that Eurasian cooling is mainly driven by internal variability. Overall, there is an impression of strong disagreement between those holding the “ice-driven” versus “internal variability” viewpoints. Here, we offer an alternative framing showing that the sea ice and internal variability views can be compatible. Key to this is viewing Eurasian cooling through the lens of dynamics (linked primarily to internal variability with some potential contribution from sea ice; cools Eurasia) and thermodynamics (linked to sea-ice retreat; warms Eurasia). This approach, combined with recognition that there is uncertainty in the hypothesized mechanisms themselves, allows both viewpoints (and others) to co-exist and contribute to our understanding of Eurasian cooling. A simple autoregressive model shows that Eurasian cooling of this magnitude is consistent with internal variability, with some periods exhibiting stronger cooling than others, either by chance or by forced changes. Rather than posit a “yes-or-no” causal relationship between sea ice and Eurasian cooling, a more constructive way forward is to consider whether the cooling trend was more likely given the observed sea-ice loss, as well as other sources of low-frequency variability. Taken in this way both sea ice and internal variability are factors that affect the likelihood of strong regional cooling in the presence of ongoing global warming.publishedVersio

Reconciling conflicting evidence for the cause of the observed early 21st century Eurasian cooling

It is now well established that the Arctic is warming at a faster rate than the global average. This warming, which has been accompanied by a dramatic decline in sea ice, has been linked to cooling over the Eurasian subcontinent over recent decades, most dramatically during the period 1998–2012. This is a counter-intuitive impact under global warming given that land regions should warm more than ocean (and the global average). Some studies have proposed a causal teleconnection from Arctic sea-ice retreat to Eurasian wintertime cooling; other studies argue that Eurasian cooling is mainly driven by internal variability. Overall, there is an impression of strong disagreement between those holding the “ice-driven” versus “internal variability” viewpoints. Here, we offer an alternative framing showing that the sea ice and internal variability views can be compatible. Key to this is viewing Eurasian cooling through the lens of dynamics (linked primarily to internal variability with some potential contribution from sea ice; cools Eurasia) and thermodynamics (linked to sea-ice retreat; warms Eurasia). This approach, combined with recognition that there is uncertainty in the hypothesized mechanisms themselves, allows both viewpoints (and others) to co-exist and contribute to our understanding of Eurasian cooling. A simple autoregressive model shows that Eurasian cooling of this magnitude is consistent with internal variability, with some periods exhibiting stronger cooling than others, either by chance or by forced changes. Rather than posit a “yes-or-no” causal relationship between sea ice and Eurasian cooling, a more constructive way forward is to consider whether the cooling trend was more likely given the observed sea-ice loss, as well as other sources of low-frequency variability. Taken in this way both sea ice and internal variability are factors that affect the likelihood of strong regional cooling in the presence of ongoing global warming.</p

Impacts of Arctic sea ice on cold season atmospheric variability and trends estimated from observations and a multi-model large ensemble

To examine the atmospheric responses to Arctic sea ice variability in the Northern Hemisphere cold season (from October to the following March), this study uses a coordinated set of large-ensemble experiments of nine atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) forced with observed daily varying sea ice, sea surface temperature, and radiative forcings prescribed during the 1979–2014 period, together with a parallel set of experiments where Arctic sea ice is substituted by its climatology. The simulations of the former set reproduce the near-surface temperature trends in reanalysis data, with similar amplitude, and their multimodel ensemble mean (MMEM) shows decreasing sea level pressure over much of the polar cap and Eurasia in boreal autumn. The MMEM difference between the two experiments allows isolating the effects of Arctic sea ice loss, which explain a large portion of the Arctic warming trends in the lower troposphere and drive a small but statistically significant weakening of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation. The observed interannual covariability between sea ice extent in the Barents–Kara Seas and lagged atmospheric circulation is distinguished from the effects of confounding factors based on multiple regression, and quantitatively compared to the covariability in MMEMs. The interannual sea ice decline followed by a negative North Atlantic Oscillation–like anomaly found in observations is also seen in the MMEM differences, with consistent spatial structure but much smaller amplitude. This result suggests that the sea ice impacts on trends and interannual atmospheric variability simulated by AGCMs could be underestimated, but caution is needed because internal atmospheric variability may have affected the observed relationship

Commercial Arctic shipping through the Northeast Passage:routes, resources, governance, technology, and infrastructure

The Russian and Norwegian Arctic are gaining notoriety as an alternative maritime route connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and as sources of natural resources. The renewed interest in the Northeast Passage or the Northern Sea Route is fueled by a recession of Arctic sea ice coupled with the discovery of new natural resources at a time when emerging and global markets are in growing demand for them. Driven by the expectation of potential future economic importance of the region, political interest and governance has been rapidly developing, mostly within the Arctic Council. However, this paper argues that optimism regarding the potential of Arctic routes as an alternative to the Suez Canal is overstated. The route involves many challenges: jurisdictional disputes create political uncertainties; shallow waters limit ship size; lack of modern deepwater ports and search and rescue (SAR) capabilities requires ships to have higher standards of autonomy and safety; harsh weather conditions and free-floating ice make navigation more difficult and schedules more variable; and more expensive ship construction and operation costs lessen the economic viability of the route. Technological advances and infrastructure investments may ameliorate navigational challenges, enabling increased shipping of natural resources from the Arctic to global markets.Albert Buixadé Farré, Scott R. Stephenson, Linling Chen, Michael Czub, Ying Dai, Denis Demchev, Yaroslav Efimov, Piotr Graczyk, Henrik Grythe, Kathrin Keil, Niku Kivekäs, Naresh Kumar, Nengye Liu, Igor Matelenok, Mari Myksvoll, Derek O'Leary, Julia Olsen, Sachin Pavithran.A.P., Edward Petersen, Andreas Raspotnik, Ivan Ryzhov, Jan Solski, Lingling Suo, Caroline Troein, Vilena Valeeva, Jaap van Rijckevorsel and Jonathan Wightin

The East Pacific Wavetrain: Its variability and impact on the atmospheric circulation in the boreal winter

The East Pacific wavetrain (EPW) refers to here the intense stationary wave activity detected in the troposphere over the East Pacific and North America in 45 northern winters from 1958 to 2002. The EPW is generated in the lower troposphere over the East Pacific, propagating predominantly eastward into North America and slightly upward then eventually into the stratosphere. The intensity of the EPW varies from year to year and exhibits apparent decadal variability. For the period 1958-1964, the EPW was in its second maximum, and it was weakest for the period 1965-1975, then it was strongest for the period 1976-1987. After 1987, the EPW weakened again. The intensity and position of the members (i.e., the Aleutian low, the North American trough, and the North American ridge) of the EPW oscillate from time to time. For an active EPW versus a weak EPW, the Aleutian low deepens abnormally and shifts its center from the west to the east of the date line, in the middle and upper troposphere the East Asian trough extends eastward, and the Canadian ridge intensifies at the same time. The opposite is true for a weak EPW. Even in the lower stratosphere, significant changes in the stationary wave pattern are also observed. Interestingly the spatial variability of the EPW assumes a Pacific-North American (PNA)-like teleconnection pattern. It is likely that the PNA low-frequency oscillation is a reflection of the oscillations of intensity and position of the members of the EPW in horizontal direction.http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000303058800005&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=8e1609b174ce4e31116a60747a720701Meteorology &amp; Atmospheric SciencesSCI(E)中国科技核心期刊(ISTIC)中国科学引文数据库(CSCD)5ARTICLE3471-4832

Performance of Seven Gridded Precipitation Products over Arid Central Asia and Subregions

The evaluation of gridded precipitation products is important for the region where meteorological stations are scarce. To find out the applicable gridded precipitation products in arid Central Asia (ACA) for better follow-up research, this paper evaluated the accuracy of five long-term gridded precipitation products (GPCC, CRU, MERRA-2, ERA5-Land, and PREC/L) and two short-term products (PERSIANN-CDR and GPM IMERG) on different time scales for the whole ACA and two subregions, Central Asia (CA) and Xinjiang of China (XJ). Seven evaluation indices were used to evaluate the consistency between the seven gridded precipitation products and observations at 328 meteorological stations for 40 years from 1980 to 2019. The main findings were as follows: (1) Each product can correctly reflect the trend of decreasing annual precipitation in CA and increasing annual precipitation in XJ, except for ERA5-Land. (2) GPCC captured extreme events by 75.9% for heavy rainfall and 67.9% for drought events, and GPM IMERG outperformed PERSIANN-CDR with a capture probability of 61% for heavy rainfall and 50% for drought events. (3) Annually, except for GPCC and CRU without significant deviations (BIAS 60%) for the seven products were near the Tianshan Mountains; comparatively, they performed better in CA than in XJ, with BIAS approximately 20% for CA and 40% for XJ. Despite regional differences, GPCC performed the best across the five long-term products overall, followed by CRU, MERRA-2, PREC/L, and ERA5-Land. For the two short-term products, GPM IMERG outperformed PERSIANN-CDR