The association of the Mediterranean diet with heart failure risk in a Dutch population

Background and aims: It is still unclear whether a healthy diet can prevent heart failure (HF). Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the association between adherence to a Mediterranean-style diet, reflected by modified Mediterranean Diet Scores (mMDS), and the incidence of HF in men and women. / Methods and results: This observational study comprised 9316 men and 27,645 women from the EPIC-NL cohort free from cardiovascular disease at baseline. Dietary intakes were assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire. mMDS was calculated using a 9-point scale based on consumption of vegetables, legumes, fruit, nuts, seeds, grains, fish, fat ratio, dairy, meat and alcohol. HF events were ascertained by linkage to nation-wide registries. Multivariable Hazard Ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated by Cox proportional hazards regression models. Over a median follow-up of 15 years (IQR 14–16), 633 HF events occurred: 144 in men (1.5%) and 489 in women (1.8%). The median mMDS was 4 (IQR 3–5). There was significant effect modification by sex (P-value for interaction <0.001), therefore results are stratified for men and women. For men, a higher mMDS associated with lower HF risk (HR: 0.88; 95% CI: 0.79, 0.98 per point increase in mMDS; HR upper category: 0.53; 95% CI: 0.33, 0.86), whereas no association was found in women (HR: 0.98; 95% CI: 0.93, 1.04 per point increase; HR upper category: 1.07; 95% CI: 0.83, 1.36). / Conclusion: Adherence to a Mediterranean-style diet may reduce HF risk, particularly in men. The underlying reasons for the differences in findings between men and women need further study

Smart homes and their users:a systematic analysis and key challenges

Published research on smart homes and their users is growing exponentially, yet a clear understanding of who these users are and how they might use smart home technologies is missing from a field being overwhelmingly pushed by technology developers. Through a systematic analysis of peer-reviewed literature on smart homes and their users, this paper takes stock of the dominant research themes and the linkages and disconnects between them. Key findings within each of nine themes are analysed, grouped into three: (1) views of the smart home-functional, instrumental, socio-technical; (2) users and the use of the smart home-prospective users, interactions and decisions, using technologies in the home; and (3) challenges for realising the smart home-hardware and software, design, domestication. These themes are integrated into an organising framework for future research that identifies the presence or absence of cross-cutting relationships between different understandings of smart homes and their users. The usefulness of the organising framework is illustrated in relation to two major concerns-privacy and control-that have been narrowly interpreted to date, precluding deeper insights and potential solutions. Future research on smart homes and their users can benefit by exploring and developing cross-cutting relationships between the research themes identified

Quantifying the effectiveness of climate change mitigation through forest plantations and carbon sequestration with an integrated land-use model

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Carbon plantations are introduced in climate change policy as an option to slow the build-up of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations. Here we present a methodology to evaluate the potential effectiveness of carbon plantations. The methodology explicitly considers future long-term land-use change around the world and all relevant carbon (C) fluxes, including all natural fluxes. Both issues have generally been ignored in earlier studies.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Two different baseline scenarios up to 2100 indicate that uncertainties in future land-use change lead to a near 100% difference in estimates of carbon sequestration potentials. Moreover, social, economic and institutional barriers preventing carbon plantations in natural vegetation areas decrease the physical potential by 75–80% or more.</p> <p>Nevertheless, carbon plantations can still considerably contribute to slowing the increase in the atmospheric CO₂concentration but only in the long term. The most conservative set of assumptions lowers the increase of the atmospheric CO₂concentration in 2100 by a 27 ppm and compensates for 5–7% of the total energy-related CO₂emissions. The net sequestration up to 2020 is limited, given the short-term increased need for agricultural land in most regions and the long period needed to compensate for emissions through the establishment of the plantations. The potential is highest in the tropics, despite projections that most of the agricultural expansion will be in these regions. Plantations in high latitudes as Northern Europe and Northern Russia should only be established if the objective to sequester carbon is combined with other activities.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Carbon sequestration in plantations can play an important role in mitigating the build-up of atmospheric CO₂. The actual magnitude depends on natural and management factors, social barriers, and the time frame considered. In addition, there are a number of ancillary benefits for local communities and the environment. Carbon plantations are, however, particularly effective in the long term. Furthermore, plantations do not offer the ultimate solution towards stabilizing CO₂concentrations but should be part of a broader package of options with clear energy emission reduction measures.</p

Biophysical and economic limits to negative CO2 emissions

To have a >50% chance of limiting warming below 2 °C, most recent scenarios from integrated assessment models (IAMs) require large-scale deployment of negative emissions technologies (NETs). These are technologies that result in the net removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. We quantify potential global impacts of the different NETs on various factors (such as land, greenhouse gas emissions, water, albedo, nutrients and energy) to determine the biophysical limits to, and economic costs of, their widespread application. Resource implications vary between technologies and need to be satisfactorily addressed if NETs are to have a significant role in achieving climate goals

Developing novel approaches to tracking domestic water demand under uncertainty - A reflection on the "up scaling" of social science approaches in the United Kingdom

Climate change, socio-demographic change and changing patterns of ordinary consumption are creating new and unpredictable pressures on urban water resources in the UK. While demand management is currently offered as a first option for managing supply/demand deficit, the uncertainties around demand and its' potential trajectories are problematic. In this paper we review the ways in which particular branches of social science offer a model of 'distributed demand' that helps explain these current and future uncertainties. We also identify a few potential strategies for tracking where the drivers of change for demand may lie. Rather than suggesting an alternative 'demand forecasting' technique we propose alternative methodological approaches that 'stretch out' and 'scale up' measures of demand to inform water resources planning and policy. These proxy measurements could act as 'indictors of change' to water demand at a population level that could then be used to inform research and policy strategies. We conclude by arguing for the need to recognise the co-production of demand futures and supply trajectories