Radar Detection of High Concentrations of Ice Particles - Methodology and Preliminary Flight Test Results

High Ice Water Content (HIWC) has been identified as a primary causal factor in numerous engine events over the past two decades. Previous attempts to develop a remote detection process utilizing modern commercial radars have failed to produce reliable results. This paper discusses the reasons for previous failures and describes a new technique that has shown very encouraging accuracy and range performance without the need for any hardware modifications to industrys current radar designs. The performance of this new process was evaluated during the joint NASA/FAA HIWC RADAR II Flight Campaign in August of 2018. Results from that evaluation are discussed, along with the potential for commercial application, and development of minimum operational performance standards for a future commercial radar product

Instrumentation for the High Ice Water Content (HIWC) Flight Campaigns

To Identify, Develop/Modify, and Qualify Cloud Physics Instrumentation for High Ice Water Content Characterization Flight Campaigns

High Ice Water Content at Low Radar Reflectivity near Deep Convection: Part II. Evaluation of Microphysical Pathways in Updraft Parcel Simulations

The aeronautics industry has established that a threat to aircraft is posed by atmospheric conditions of substantial ice water content (IWC) where equivalent radar reflectivity (Ze) does not exceed 20-30 dBZ and supercooled water is not present; these conditions are encountered almost exclusively in the vicinity of deep convection. Part 1 (Fridlind et al., 2015) of this two-part study presents in situ measurements of such conditions sampled by Airbus in three tropical regions, commonly near 11 km and -43 C, and concludes that the measured ice particle size distributions are broadly consistent with past literature with profiling radar measurements of Z(sub e) and mean Doppler velocity obtained within monsoonal deep convection in one of the regions sampled. In all three regions, the Airbus measurements generally indicate variable IWC that often exceeds 2 gm (exp -3) with relatively uniform mass median area-equivalent diameter (MMD(sub eq) of 200-300 micrometers. Here we use a parcel model with size-resolved microphysics to investigate microphysical pathways that could lead to such conditions. Our simulations indicate that homogeneous freezing of water drops produces a much smaller ice MMD(sub eq) than observed, and occurs only in the absence of hydrometeor gravitational collection for the conditions considered. Development of a mass mode of ice aloft that overlaps with the measurements requires a substantial source of small ice particles at temperatures of about -10 C or warmer, which subsequently grow from water vapor. One conceivable source in our simulation framework is Hallett-Mossop ice production; another is abundant concentrations of heterogeneous ice freezing nuclei acting together with copious shattering of water drops upon freezing. Regardless of the production mechanism, the dominant mass modal diameter of vapor-grown ice is reduced as the ice-multiplication source strength increases and as competition for water vapor increases. Both mass and modal diameter are reduced by entrainment and by increasing aerosol concentrations. Weaker updrafts lead to greater mass and larger modal diameters of vapor-grown ice, the opposite of expectations regarding lofting of larger ice particles in stronger updrafts. While stronger updrafts do loft more dense ice particles produced primarily by raindrop freezing, we find that weaker updrafts allow the warm rain process to reduce competition for diffusional growth of the less dense ice expected to persist in convective outflow

Evaluation of radar reflectivity factor simulations of ice crystal populations from in situ observations for the retrieval of condensed water content in tropical mesoscale convective systems

This study presents the evaluation of a technique to estimate cloud condensed water content (CWC) in tropical convection from airborne cloud radar reflectivity factors at 94 GHz and in situ measurements of particle size distributions (PSDs) and aspect ratios of ice crystal populations. The approach is to calculate from each 5 s mean PSD and flight-level reflectivity the variability of all possible solutions of m(D) relationships fulfilling the condition that the simulated radar reflectivity factor (T-matrix method) matches the measured radar reflectivity factor. For the reflectivity simulations, ice crystals were approximated as oblate spheroids, without using a priori assumptions on the mass–size relationship of ice crystals. The CWC calculations demonstrate that individual CWC values are in the range ±32 % of the retrieved average CWC value over all CWC solutions for the chosen 5 s time intervals. In addition, during the airborne field campaign performed out of Darwin in 2014, as part of the international High Altitude Ice Crystals/High Ice Water Content (HAIC/HIWC) projects, CWCs were measured independently with the new IKP-2 (isokinetic evaporator probe) instrument along with simultaneous particle imagery and radar reflectivity. Retrieved CWCs from the T-matrix radar reflectivity simulations are on average 16 % higher than the direct CWCIKP measurements. The differences between the CWCIKP and averaged retrieved CWCs are found to be primarily a function of the total number concentration of ice crystals. Consequently, a correction term is applied (as a function of total number concentration) that significantly improves the retrieved CWC. After correction, the retrieved CWCs have a median relative error with respect to measured values of only −1 %. Uncertainties in the measurements of total concentration of hydrometeors are investigated in order to calculate their contribution to the relative error of calculated CWC with respect to measured CWCIKP. It is shown that an overestimation of the concentration by about +50 % increases the relative errors of retrieved CWCs by only +29 %, while possible shattering, which impacts only the concentration of small hydrometeors, increases the relative error by about +4 %. Moreover, all cloud events with encountered graupel particles were studied and compared to events without observed graupel particles. Overall, graupel particles seem to have the largest impact on high crystal number-concentration conditions and show relative errors in retrieved CWCs that are higher than for events without graupel particles

Segmentation and Model Generation for Large-Scale Cyber Attacks

Raw Cyber attack traffic can present more questions than answers to security analysts. Especially with large-scale observables it is difficult to identify which packets are relevant and what attack behaviors are present. Many existing works in Host or Flow Clustering attempt to group similar behaviors to expedite analysis; these works often phrase the problem directly as offline unsupervised machine learning. This work proposes online processing to simultaneously model coordinating actors and segment traffic that is relevant to a target of interest, all while it is being received. The goal is not just to aggregate similar attack behaviors, but to provide situational awareness by grouping potential coordinators and isolating an attack area of interest around a particular target. The clustering problem is recast as a supervised learning problem: classifying received traffic to the most likely attack model, and iteratively introducing new attack models to explain received traffic. A novel graphical prior probability is defined based on the macroscopic attack structure to improve classification. Malicious traffic captures provided by the Cooperative Association for Internet Data Analysis are used to demonstrate the accuracy of the online model generation and segmentation

Isokinetic TWC Evaporator Probe: Development of the IKP2 and Performance Testing for the HAIC-HIWC Darwin 2014 and Cayenne 2015 Field Campaigns

A new Isokinetic Total Water Content Evaporator (IKP2) was downsized from a prototype instrument, specifically to make airborne measurements of hydrometeor total water content (TWC) in deep tropical convective clouds to assess the new ice crystal Appendix D icing envelope. The probe underwent numerous laboratory and wind tunnel investigations to ensure reliable operation under the difficult high altitude/speed/TWC conditions under which other TWC instruments have been known to either fail, or have unknown performance characteristics. The article tracks the testing and modifications of the IKP2 probe to ensure its readiness for three flight campaigns in 2014 and 2015. Comparisons are made between the IKP2 and the NASA Icing Research Tunnel reference values in liquid conditions, and to an exploratory technique estimating ice water content from a bulk ice capture cylinder method in glaciated conditions. These comparisons suggest that the initial target of 20% accuracy in TWC has been achieved and likely exceeded for tested TWC values in excess of about 0.5/cu gm. Uncertainties in the ice water content reference method have been identified. Complications are introduced in the necessary subtraction of an independently measured background water vapor concentration, errors of which are small at the colder flight temperatures, but increase rapidly with increasing temperature, and ultimately limit the practical use of the instrument in a tropical convective atmosphere to conditions colder than about 0 C. A companion article in this conference traces the accuracy of the components of the IKP2 to derive estimated system accuracy

High Ice Water Content at Low Radar Reflectivity near Deep Convection

Occurrences of jet engine power loss and damage have been associated with flight through fully glaciated deep convection at -10 to -50 degrees Centigrade. Power loss events commonly occur during flight through radar reflectivity (Zeta (sub e)) less than 20-30 decibels relative to Zeta (dBZ - radar returns) and no more than moderate turbulence, often overlying moderate to heavy rain near the surface. During 2010-2012, Airbus carried out flight tests seeking to characterize the highest ice water content (IWC) in such low-radar-reflectivity regions of large, cold-topped storm systems in the vicinity of Cayenne, Darwin, and Santiago. Within the highest IWC regions encountered, at typical sampling elevations (circa 11 kilometers), the measured ice size distributions exhibit a notably narrow concentration of mass over area-equivalent diameters of 100-500 micrometers. Given substantial and poorly quantified measurement uncertainties, here we evaluate the consistency of the Airbus in situ measurements with ground-based profiling radar observations obtained under quasi-steady, heavy stratiform rain conditions in one of the Airbus-sampled locations. We find that profiler-observed radar reflectivities and mean Doppler velocities at Airbus sampling temperatures are generally consistent with those calculated from in situ size-distribution measurements. We also find that column simulations using the in situ size distributions as an upper boundary condition are generally consistent with observed profiles of radar reflectivity (Ze), mean Doppler velocity (MDV), and retrieved rain rate. The results of these consistency checks motivate an examination of the microphysical pathways that could be responsible for the observed size-distribution features in Ackerman et al. (2015)

Summary of the High Ice Water Content (HIWC) RADAR Flight Campaigns

NASA and the FAA conducted two flight campaigns to quantify onboard weather radar measurements with in-situ measurements of high concentrations of ice crystals found in deep convective storms. The ultimate goal of this research was to improve the understanding and develop onboard weather radar processing to detect regions of high ice water content ahead of an aircraft and enable tactical avoidance of the potentially hazardous conditions. Both High Ice Water Content (HIWC) RADAR campaigns utilized the NASA DC-8 Airborne Science Laboratory which was equipped with a Honeywell RDR-4000 weather radar and icing instruments to characterize the ice crystal clouds. The purpose of this paper is to summarize how these campaigns were conducted and highlight key results

Summary of the High Ice Water Content (HIWC) RADAR Flight Campaigns

NASA and the FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) conducted two flight campaigns to quantify onboard weather radar measurements with in-situ measurements of high concentrations of ice crystals found in deep convective storms. The ultimate goal of this research was to improve the understanding and develop onboard weather radar processing to detect regions of high ice water content ahead of an aircraft and enable tactical avoidance of the potentially hazardous conditions. Both High Ice Water Content (HIWC) RADAR campaigns utilized the NASA DC-8 Airborne Science Laboratory which was equipped with a Honeywell RDR-4000 weather radar and icing instruments to characterize the ice crystal clouds. The purpose of this paper is to summarize how these campaigns were conducted and highlight key results