Report from the MPP Working Group to the NASA Associate Administrator for Space Science and Applications

NASA's Office of Space Science and Applications (OSSA) gave a select group of scientists the opportunity to test and implement their computational algorithms on the Massively Parallel Processor (MPP) located at Goddard Space Flight Center, beginning in late 1985. One year later, the Working Group presented its report, which addressed the following: algorithms, programming languages, architecture, programming environments, the way theory relates, and performance measured. The findings point to a number of demonstrated computational techniques for which the MPP architecture is ideally suited. For example, besides executing much faster on the MPP than on conventional computers, systolic VLSI simulation (where distances are short), lattice simulation, neural network simulation, and image problems were found to be easier to program on the MPP's architecture than on a CYBER 205 or even a VAX. The report also makes technical recommendations covering all aspects of MPP use, and recommendations concerning the future of the MPP and machines based on similar architectures, expansion of the Working Group, and study of the role of future parallel processors for space station, EOS, and the Great Observatories era

Statistical modelling of air quality impacts from individual forest fires in New South Wales, Australia

Wildfires and hazard reduction burns produce smoke that contains pollutants including particulate matter. Particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in diameter (PM2.5) is harmful to human health, potentially causing cardiovascular and respiratory issues that can lead to premature deaths. PM2.5 levels depend on environmental conditions, fire behaviour and smoke dispersal patterns. Fire management agencies need to understand and predict PM2.5 levels associated with a particular fire so that pollution warnings can be sent to communities and/or hazard reduction burns can be timed to avoid the worst conditions for PM2.5 pollution. We modelled PM2.5, measured at air quality stations in New South Wales (Australia) from ∼ 1400 d when individual fires were burning near air quality stations, as a function of fire and weather variables. Using Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) satellite hotspots, we identified days when one fire was burning within 150 km of at least 1 of 48 air quality stations. We extracted ERA5 gridded weather data and daily active fire area estimates from the hotspots for our modelling. We created random forest models for afternoon, night and morning PM2.5 levels to understand drivers of and predict PM2.5. Fire area and boundary layer height were important predictors across the models, with temperature, wind speed and relative humidity also being important. There was a strong increase in PM2.5 with decreasing distance, with a sharp increase when the fire was within 20 km. The models improve our understanding of the drivers of PM2.5 from individual fires and demonstrate a promising approach to PM2.5 model development. However, although the models predicted well overall, there were several large under-predictions of PM2.5 that mean further model development would be required for the models to be deployed operationally.</p

Drivers of long-distance spotting during wildfires in south-eastern Australia

We analysed the influence of wildfire area, topography, fuel, surface weather and upper-level weather conditions on long-distance spotting during wildfires. The analysis was based on a large dataset of 338 observations, from aircraft-acquired optical line scans, of spotting wildfires in south-east Australia between 2002 and 2018. Source fire area (a measure of fire activity) was the most important predictor of maximum spotting distance and the number of long-distance spot fires produced (i.e. >500 m from a source fire). Weather (surface and upper-level), vegetation and topographic variables had important secondary effects. Spotting distance and number of long-distance spot fires increased strongly with increasing source fire area, particularly under strong winds and in areas containing dense forest and steep slopes. General vegetation descriptors better predicted spotting compared with bark hazard and presence variables, suggesting systems that measure and map bark spotting potential need improvement. The results from this study have important implications for the development of predictive spotting and wildfire behaviour models

Effects of dependence in high-dimensional multiple testing problems

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>We consider effects of dependence among variables of high-dimensional data in multiple hypothesis testing problems, in particular the False Discovery Rate (FDR) control procedures. Recent simulation studies consider only simple correlation structures among variables, which is hardly inspired by real data features. Our aim is to systematically study effects of several network features like sparsity and correlation strength by imposing dependence structures among variables using random correlation matrices.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We study the robustness against dependence of several FDR procedures that are popular in microarray studies, such as Benjamin-Hochberg FDR, Storey's q-value, SAM and resampling based FDR procedures. False Non-discovery Rates and estimates of the number of null hypotheses are computed from those methods and compared. Our simulation study shows that methods such as SAM and the q-value do not adequately control the FDR to the level claimed under dependence conditions. On the other hand, the adaptive Benjamini-Hochberg procedure seems to be most robust while remaining conservative. Finally, the estimates of the number of true null hypotheses under various dependence conditions are variable.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>We discuss a new method for efficient guided simulation of dependent data, which satisfy imposed network constraints as conditional independence structures. Our simulation set-up allows for a structural study of the effect of dependencies on multiple testing criterions and is useful for testing a potentially new method on <it>π</it>₀or FDR estimation in a dependency context.</p

Phenotypic heterogeneity and genetic modification of P102L inherited prion disease in an international series

The largest kindred with inherited prion disease P102L, historically Gerstmann-Sträussler-Scheinker syndrome, originates from central England, with émigrés now resident in various parts of the English-speaking world. We have collected data from 84 patients in the large UK kindred and numerous small unrelated pedigrees to investigate phenotypic heterogeneity and modifying factors. This collection represents by far the largest series of P102L patients so far reported. Microsatellite and genealogical analyses of eight separate European kindreds support multiple distinct mutational events at a cytosine-phosphate diester-guanidine dinucleotide mutation hot spot. All of the smaller P102L kindreds were linked to polymorphic human prion protein gene codon 129M and were not connected by genealogy or microsatellite haplotype background to the large kindred or each other. While many present with classical Gerstmann-Sträussler-Scheinker syndrome, a slowly progressive cerebellar ataxia with later onset cognitive impairment, there is remarkable heterogeneity. A subset of patients present with prominent cognitive and psychiatric features and some have met diagnostic criteria for sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease. We show that polymorphic human prion protein gene codon 129 modifies age at onset: the earliest eight clinical onsets were all MM homozygotes and overall age at onset was 7 years earlier for MM compared with MV heterozygotes (P = 0.02). Unexpectedly, apolipoprotein E4 carriers have a delayed age of onset by 10 years (P = 0.02). We found a preponderance of female patients compared with males (54 females versus 30 males, P = 0.01), which probably relates to ascertainment bias. However, these modifiers had no impact on a semi-quantitative pathological phenotype in 10 autopsied patients. These data allow an appreciation of the range of clinical phenotype, modern imaging and molecular investigation and should inform genetic counselling of at-risk individuals, with the identification of two genetic modifiers

Spatially heterogeneous argon-isotope systematics and apparent ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages in perlitised obsidian

In situ laser ablation Ar-isotope analyses of variably hydrated and devitrified obsidian from the ~ 27 Ma Cochetopa Dome, San Juan, USA, reveal complex interplay between degassing of initial Ar and absorption of atmospheric Ar. These processes have locally modified the Ar-isotope composition of the obsidian and led to spurious, spatially-heterogeneous Ar-isotope and 40Ar/39Ar age data. Small perlite beads exhibit older apparent Ar-ages at the rims than the cores. This is interpreted as an apparent excess of 40Ar at the rims, produced either by a) diffusion of excess 40Ar into the bead during flushing of the lava with excess 40Ar-bearing volcanic gas, or by b) isotopic fractionation during degassing of initial Ar, causing preferential loss of 36Ar over 40Ar at the bead rims. The second interpretation is favoured by a relative enrichment of 36Ar in the core of a perlite bead along a microlite-free (poorly degassed) flow band, and by a lack of age variation in a larger, fresh, well-degassed perlite bead. These isotopic gradients were later overprinted during glass hydration by absorption of Ar with near-atmospheric composition, resulting in elevated 36Ar and reduced radiogenic 40Ar* yields at the rims of perlite beads. These complex interactions essentially represent the mixing of three distinct Ar reservoirs: initial trapped Ar that may or may not be fractionated, an isotopically atmospheric Ar component introduced during hydration, and radiogenic 40Ar*. Such reservoir mixing is the underlying reason for poor correlations on isotope correlation diagrams and the difficulties in validating the composition of the non-radiogenic Ar component. We thus suggest that high 36Ar yields are a combination of the incomplete degassing of initial (possibly magmatic) Ar and the gain of Ar during interaction between the obsidian and meteoric/atmospheric fluids. Our analyses emphasise the challenging nature of 40Ar/39Ar dating obsidian samples, but also point to possible solutions by careful sample characterisation and selection of highly degassed samples

Evaluation of a brief anti-stigma campaign in Cambridge: do short-term campaigns work?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In view of the high costs of mass-media campaigns, it is important to understand whether it is possible for a media campaign to have significant population effects over a short period of time. This paper explores this question specifically in reference to stigma and discrimination against people with mental health problems using the <it>Time to Change </it>Cambridge anti-stigma campaign as an example.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>410 face-to-face interviews were performed pre, during and post campaign activity to assess campaign awareness and mental health-related knowledge, attitudes and behaviours.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Although campaign awareness was not sustained following campaign activity, significant and sustained shifts occurred for mental health-related knowledge items. Specifically, there was a 24% (p < 0.001) increase in persons agreeing with the statement: <it>If a friend had a mental health problem, I know what advice to give them to get professional help</it>, following the campaign. Additionally, for the statement: <it>Medication can be an effective treatment for people with mental health problems</it>, there was a 10% rise (p = 0.05) in the proportion of interviewees responding 'agree' or 'strongly agree' following the campaign. These changes, however, were not evident for attitudinal or behaviour related questions.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Although these results only reflect the impact of one small scale campaign, these preliminary findings suggest several considerations for mass-media campaign development and evaluation strategies such as: (1) Aiming to influence outcomes pertaining to knowledge in the short term; (2) Planning realistic and targeted outcomes over the short, medium and long term during sustained campaigns; and (3) Monitoring indirect campaign effects such as social discourse or other social networking/contact in the evaluation.</p

Normative Ethics Does Not Need a Foundation: It Needs More Science

The impact of science on ethics forms since long the subject of intense debate. Although there is a growing consensus that science can describe morality and explain its evolutionary origins, there is less consensus about the ability of science to provide input to the normative domain of ethics. Whereas defenders of a scientific normative ethics appeal to naturalism, its critics either see the naturalistic fallacy committed or argue that the relevance of science to normative ethics remains undemonstrated. In this paper, we argue that current scientific normative ethicists commit no fallacy, that criticisms of scientific ethics contradict each other, and that scientific insights are relevant to normative inquiries by informing ethics about the options open to the ethical debate. Moreover, when conceiving normative ethics as being a nonfoundational ethics, science can be used to evaluate every possible norm. This stands in contrast to foundational ethics in which some norms remain beyond scientific inquiry. Finally, we state that a difference in conception of normative ethics underlies the disagreement between proponents and opponents of a scientific ethics. Our argument is based on and preceded by a reconsideration of the notions naturalistic fallacy and foundational ethics. This argument differs from previous work in scientific ethics: whereas before the philosophical project of naturalizing the normative has been stressed, here we focus on concrete consequences of biological findings for normative decisions or on the day-to-day normative relevance of these scientific insights