Evolution of Mechanical Properties of Lava Dome Rocks Across the 1995–2010 Eruption of Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat

Lava dome collapses pose a hazard to surrounding populations, but equally represent important processes for deciphering the eruptive history of a volcano. Models examining lava dome instability rely on accurate physical and mechanical properties of volcanic rocks. Here we focus on determining the physical and mechanical properties of a suite of temporally-constrained rocks from different phases of the 1995–2010 eruption at Soufrière Hills volcano in Montserrat. We determine the uniaxial compressive strength, tensile strength, density, porosity, permeability, and Young’s modulus using laboratory measurements, complemented by Schmidt hammer testing in the field. By viewing a snapshot of each phase, we find the highest tensile and compressive strengths in the samples attributed to Phase 4, corresponding to a lower permeability and an increasing proportion of isolated porosity. Samples from Phase 5 show lower compressive and tensile strengths, corresponding to the highest permeability and porosity of the tested materials. Overall, this demonstrates a reliance of mechanical properties primarily on porosity, however, a shift toward increasing prevalence of pore connectivity in weaker samples identified by microtextural analysis demonstrates that here pore connectivity also contributes to the strength and Young’s Modulus, as well as controlling permeability. The range in UCS strengths are supported using Schmidt hammer field testing. We determine a narrow range in mineralogy across the sample suite, but identify a correlation between increasing crystallinity and increasing strength. We correlate these changes to residency-time in the growing lava dome during the eruption, where stronger rocks have undergone more crystallization. In addition, subsequent recrystallization of silica polymorphs from the glass phase may further strengthen the material. We suggest the variation in physical and mechanical rock properties shown within the Soufrière Hills eruptive products be included in future structural stability models of the remaining over-steepened dome on Montserrat, and that consideration of rock heterogeneity and its temporal variation if possible, be made in other, similar systems

The relationship between eruptive activity, flank collapse, and sea level at volcanic islands: A long-term (>1 Ma) record offshore Montserrat, Lesser Antilles

Hole U1395B, drilled southeast of Montserrat during Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 340, provides a long (>1 Ma) and detailed record of eruptive and mass-wasting events (>130 discrete events). This record can be used to explore the temporal evolution in volcanic activity and landslides at an arc volcano. Analysis of tephra fall and volcaniclastic turbidite deposits in the drill cores reveals three heightened periods of volcanic activity on the island of Montserrat (?930 ka to ?900 ka, ?810 ka to ?760 ka, and ?190 ka to ?120 ka) that coincide with periods of increased volcano instability and mass-wasting. The youngest of these periods marks the peak in activity at the Soufrière Hills volcano. The largest flank collapse of this volcano (?130 ka) occurred towards the end of this period, and two younger landslides also occurred during a period of relatively elevated volcanism. These three landslides represent the only large (>0.3 km3) flank collapses of the Soufrière Hills edifice, and their timing also coincides with periods of rapid sea-level rise (>5 m/ka). Available age data from other island arc volcanoes suggests a general correlation between the timing of large landslides and periods of rapid sea-level rise, but this is not observed for volcanoes in intra-plate ocean settings. We thus infer that rapid sea-level rise may modulate the timing of collapse at island arc volcanoes, but not in larger ocean-island settings

Heat flow in the Lesser Antilles island arc and adjacent back arc Grenada basin

Using temperature gradients measured in 10 holes at 6 sites, we generate the first high fidelity heat flow measurements from Integrated Ocean Drilling Program drill holes across the northern and central Lesser Antilles arc and back arc Grenada basin. The implied heat flow, after correcting for bathymetry and sedimentation effects, ranges from about 0.1 W/m² on the crest of the arc, midway between the volcanic islands of Montserrat and Guadeloupe, to 15 km from the crest in the back arc direction. Combined with previous measurements, we find that the magnitude and spatial pattern of heat flow are similar to those at continental arcs. The heat flow in the Grenada basin to the west of the active arc is 0.06 W/m², a factor of 2 lower than that found in the previous and most recent study. There is no thermal evidence for significant shallow fluid advection at any of these sites. Present-day volcanism is confined to the region with the highest heat flow.American Geophysical Union – Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems. This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by the American Geophysical Union and can be found at: http://www.agu.org/journals/gc/.Keywords: volcanic arc., Lesser Antilles, IODP, heat flow, back arc, Grenada basinKeywords: volcanic arc., Lesser Antilles, IODP, heat flow, back arc, Grenada basi

Permeability and pressure measurements in Lesser Antilles submarine slides: Evidence for pressure-driven slow-slip failure

Recent studies hypothesize that some submarine slides fail via pressure-driven slow-slip deformation. To test this hypothesis, this study derives pore pressures in failed and adjacent unfailed deep marine sediments by integrating rock physics models, physical property measurements on recovered sediment core, and wireline logs. Two drill sites (U1394 and U1399) drilled through interpreted slide debris; a third (U1395) drilled into normal marine sediment. Near-hydrostatic fluid pressure exists in sediments at site U1395. In contrast, results at both sites U1394 and U1399 indicate elevated pore fluid pressures in some sediment. We suggest that high pore pressure at the base of a submarine slide deposit at site U1394 results from slide shearing. High pore pressure exists throughout much of site U1399, and Mohr circle analysis suggests that only slight changes in the stress regime will trigger motion. Consolidation tests and permeability measurements indicate moderately low (~10⁻¹⁶–10⁻¹⁷ m²) permeability and overconsolidation in fine-grained slide debris, implying that these sediments act as seals. Three mechanisms, in isolation or in combination, may produce the observed elevated pore fluid pressures at site U1399: (1) rapid sedimentation, (2) lateral fluid flow, and (3) shearing that causes sediments to contract, increasing pore pressure. Our preferred hypothesis is this third mechanism because it explains both elevated fluid pressure and sediment overconsolidation without requiring high sedimentation rates. Our combined analysis of subsurface pore pressures, drilling data, and regional seismic images indicates that slope failure offshore Martinique is perhaps an ongoing, creep-like process where small stress changes trigger motion

Late Pleistocene stratigraphy of IODP Site U1396 and compiled chronology offshore of south and south west Montserrat, Lesser Antilles

Marine sediments around volcanic islands contain an archive of volcaniclastic deposits, which can be used to reconstruct the volcanic history of an area. Such records hold many advantages over often incomplete terrestrial data sets. This includes the potential for precise and continuous dating of intervening sediment packages, which allow a correlatable and temporally constrained stratigraphic framework to be constructed across multiple marine sediment cores. Here we discuss a marine record of eruptive and mass-wasting events spanning ~250 ka offshore of Montserrat, using new data from IODP Expedition 340, as well as previously collected cores. By using a combination of high-resolution oxygen isotope stratigraphy, AMS radiocarbon dating, biostratigraphy of foraminifera and calcareous nannofossils, and clast componentry, we identify five major events at Soufriere Hills volcano since 250 ka. Lateral correlations of these events across sediment cores collected offshore of the south and south west of Montserrat have improved our understanding of the timing, extent and associations between events in this area. Correlations reveal that powerful and potentially erosive density-currents traveled at least 33 km offshore and demonstrate that marine deposits, produced by eruption-fed and mass-wasting events on volcanic islands, are heterogeneous in their spatial distribution. Thus, multiple drilling/coring sites are needed to reconstruct the full chronostratigraphy of volcanic islands. This multidisciplinary study will be vital to interpreting the chaotic records of submarine landslides at other sites drilled during Expedition 340 and provides a framework that can be applied to the stratigraphic analysis of sediments surrounding other volcanic islands.Keywords: Debris avalanche, Pyroclastic flows, Late quaternary, Submarine evidenc

Obeticholic acid for the treatment of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis: interim analysis from a multicentre, randomised, placebo-controlled phase 3 trial

Background Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is a common type of chronic liver disease that can lead to cirrhosis. Obeticholic acid, a farnesoid X receptor agonist, has been shown to improve the histological features of NASH. Here we report results from a planned interim analysis of an ongoing, phase 3 study of obeticholic acid for NASH. Methods In this multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled study, adult patients with definite NASH,non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) activity score of at least 4, and fibrosis stages F2–F3, or F1 with at least oneaccompanying comorbidity, were randomly assigned using an interactive web response system in a 1:1:1 ratio to receive oral placebo, obeticholic acid 10 mg, or obeticholic acid 25 mg daily. Patients were excluded if cirrhosis, other chronic liver disease, elevated alcohol consumption, or confounding conditions were present. The primary endpointsfor the month-18 interim analysis were fibrosis improvement (≥1 stage) with no worsening of NASH, or NASH resolution with no worsening of fibrosis, with the study considered successful if either primary endpoint was met. Primary analyses were done by intention to treat, in patients with fibrosis stage F2–F3 who received at least one dose of treatment and reached, or would have reached, the month 18 visit by the prespecified interim analysis cutoff date. The study also evaluated other histological and biochemical markers of NASH and fibrosis, and safety. This study is ongoing, and registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02548351, and EudraCT, 20150-025601-6. Findings Between Dec 9, 2015, and Oct 26, 2018, 1968 patients with stage F1–F3 fibrosis were enrolled and received at least one dose of study treatment; 931 patients with stage F2–F3 fibrosis were included in the primary analysis (311 in the placebo group, 312 in the obeticholic acid 10 mg group, and 308 in the obeticholic acid 25 mg group). The fibrosis improvement endpoint was achieved by 37 (12%) patients in the placebo group, 55 (18%) in the obeticholic acid 10 mg group (p=0·045), and 71 (23%) in the obeticholic acid 25 mg group (p=0·0002). The NASH resolution endpoint was not met (25 [8%] patients in the placebo group, 35 [11%] in the obeticholic acid 10 mg group [p=0·18], and 36 [12%] in the obeticholic acid 25 mg group [p=0·13]). In the safety population (1968 patients with fibrosis stages F1–F3), the most common adverse event was pruritus (123 [19%] in the placebo group, 183 [28%] in the obeticholic acid 10 mg group, and 336 [51%] in the obeticholic acid 25 mg group); incidence was generally mild to moderate in severity. The overall safety profile was similar to that in previous studies, and incidence of serious adverse events was similar across treatment groups (75 [11%] patients in the placebo group, 72 [11%] in the obeticholic acid 10 mg group, and 93 [14%] in the obeticholic acid 25 mg group). Interpretation Obeticholic acid 25 mg significantly improved fibrosis and key components of NASH disease activity among patients with NASH. The results from this planned interim analysis show clinically significant histological improvement that is reasonably likely to predict clinical benefit. This study is ongoing to assess clinical outcomes

Construction of volcanic records from marine sediment cores: A review and case study (Montserrat, West Indies)

Detailed knowledge of the past history of an active volcano is crucial for the prediction of the timing, frequency and style of future eruptions, and for the identification of potentially at-risk areas. Subaerial volcanic stratigraphies are often incomplete, due to a lack of exposure, or burial and erosion from subsequent eruptions. However, many volcanic eruptions produce widely-dispersed explosive products that are frequently deposited as tephra layers in the sea. Cores of marine sediment therefore have the potential to provide more complete volcanic stratigraphies, at least for explosive eruptions. Nevertheless, problems such as bioturbation and dispersal by currents affect the preservation and subsequent detection of marine tephra deposits. Consequently, cryptotephras, in which tephra grains are not sufficiently concentrated to form layers that are visible to the naked eye, may be the only record of many explosive eruptions. Additionally, thin, reworked deposits of volcanic clasts transported by floods and landslides, or during pyroclastic density currents may be incorrectly interpreted as tephra fallout layers, leading to the construction of inaccurate records of volcanism. This work uses samples from the volcanic island of Montserrat as a case study to test different techniques for generating volcanic eruption records from marine sediment cores, with a particular relevance to cores sampled in relatively proximal settings (i.e. tens of kilometres from the volcanic source) where volcaniclastic material may form a pervasive component of the sedimentary sequence. Visible volcaniclastic deposits identified by sedimentological logging were used to test the effectiveness of potential alternative volcaniclastic-deposit detection techniques, including point counting of grain types (component analysis), glass or mineral chemistry, colour spectrophotometry, grain size measurements, XRF core scanning, magnetic susceptibility and X-radiography. This study demonstrates that a set of time-efficient, non-destructive and high-spatial-resolution analyses (e.g. XRF core-scanning and magnetic susceptibility) can be used effectively to detect potential cryptotephra horizons in marine sediment cores. Once these horizons have been sampled, microscope image analysis of volcaniclastic grains can be used successfully to discriminate between tephra fallout deposits and other volcaniclastic deposits, by using specific criteria related to clast morphology and sorting. Standard practice should be employed when analysing marine sediment cores to accurately identify both visible tephra and cryptotephra deposits, and to distinguish fallout deposits from other volcaniclastic deposits

Evolution of mechanical properties of lava dome rocks across the Soufrière Hills eruption, and application in discrete element models

&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Lava dome collapses pose a hazard to surrounding populations, but equally represent important processes for deciphering the eruptive history of a volcano. Models examining lava dome instability rely on accurate physical and mechanical properties of volcanic rocks. Here we focus on determining the physical and mechanical properties of a suite of temporally-constrained rocks from different phases of the 1995&amp;amp;#8211;2010 eruption at Soufri&amp;amp;#232;re Hills volcano in Montserrat. We determine the uniaxial compressive strength, tensile strength, density, porosity, permeability, and Young&amp;amp;#8217;s modulus using laboratory measurements, complemented by Schmidt hammer testing in the field.&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt; &amp;lt;p&amp;gt;By viewing a snapshot of each phase, we find the highest tensile and compressive strengths in the samples attributed to Phase 4, corresponding to a lower permeability and an increasing proportion of isolated porosity. Samples from Phase 5 show lower compressive and tensile strengths, corresponding to the highest permeability and porosity of the tested materials. Overall, this demonstrates a reliance of mechanical properties primarily on porosity, however, a shift toward increasing prevalence of pore connectivity in weaker samples identified by microtextural analysis demonstrates that here pore connectivity also contributes to the strength and Young&amp;amp;#8217;s Modulus, as well as controlling permeability. The range in UCS strengths are supported using Schmidt hammer field testing. We determine a narrow range in mineralogy across the sample suite, but identify a correlation between increasing crystallinity and increasing strength. We correlate these changes to residency-time in the growing lava dome during the eruption, where stronger rocks have undergone more crystallization. In addition, subsequent recrystallization of silica polymorphs from the glass phase may further strengthen the material.&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt; &amp;lt;p&amp;gt;We incorporate the variation in physical and mechanical rock properties shown within the Soufri&amp;amp;#232;re Hills eruptive into structural stability models of the remaining over-steepened dome on Montserrat, considering also the possible effect of upscaling on the edifice-scale rock properties, and the resultant dome stability.&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;</jats:p

Carbonate crusts around volcanic islands: composition, origin and their significance in slope stability

Extensive carbonate crusts discovered forming on the slopes of seamounts in many parts of the world's oceans are providing extra stability to the volcanic edifices. These crusts are hardgrounds composed of mixtures of volcaniclastic debris and bioclastic material, in most cases cemented by calcite, in the form of isopachous coatings around grains and pore-filling spar. Such crusts, which have been collected by a remotely-operated vehicle (ROV), are described here from moderate-depth to deeper-water slopes (180–820 m) around the volcanic island of Montserrat in the Caribbean, and from the nearby Kick'em Jenny submarine volcano off Grenada. Radiogenic 87Sr/86Sr isotope ratios from the carbonates give an indication of age (up to 0.4 Ma years old) but they also demonstrate that some samples have been altered by hydrothermal-volcanic processes, to give ages much older than expected (14 to 18 Ma) based on the foraminifera present. Such alteration is also supported by carbon and oxygen isotope (δ13C and δ18O) ratios, although most samples retain typical marine values. In many cases δ18O is usually a little more positive than expected from modern Caribbean shallow-water carbonates, likely reflecting cooler water at their moderate depths of lithification. Just one sample, from Kick'em Jenny, has very negative δ13C (−42‰) indicating methanogenesis. Crusts are also reported here from the Mediterranean Sea, with an example described from Kolumbo submarine volcano, northeast of the Santorini volcanic complex in the Hellenic subduction zone, that are similar in many respects to those from the Caribbean. Typically, the biota of the crusts consists of calcareous red algae (commonly encrusting volcanic clasts), foraminifera (benthic, some also encrusting, and planktic), subordinate serpulids, bivalves, pteropods and heteropods, and rare deeper-water corals. Some bioclasts are derived from shallower water, others from the moderate depths of the slope itself, and planktic fallout. In addition, there is evidence for the former presence of microbes from the occurrence of calcified filaments and peloids in intragranular cavities. Several generations of sponge borings are usually present as well as calcite cement. Dissolution and calcite replacement of aragonitic bioclasts and cement, and sponge spicules (originally opaline silica), have taken place. The carbonate crusts are attributed to seawater circulating within the surficial sediment, in some cases mixing with hydrothermal fluid driven by geothermal and volcanic processes. Submarine volcanic slopes clearly provide a location for moderate-depth carbonate production and cementation, but a further significance of these hardgrounds is in stabilising seamounts, enabling their slopes to avoid frequent collapse, dissection and readjustment. However, when failure does occur, larger-scale submarine landslides involving coherent slabs are more likely

Mapping and assessing volcanic and flood hazards and risks, with emphasis on lahars, in Arequipa, Peru

Studies of the type, extent, and volume of Holocene pyroclastic and lahar deposits have concluded that future eruptions of El Misti volcano, even if moderate in magnitude, will pose a serious threat to the city of Arequipa, Peru. After describing the most probable volcanic scenarios at El Misti, this paper concentrates on lahar and flood risk assessment. Scenarios were derived with the help of the simulation codes LAHARZ and TITAN2D. The lahar risk assessment varies significantly depending on the method selected. LAHARZ simulations indicate that a considerable part of the urban areas and infrastructure could be severely affected. Losses due to impacts inflicted by lahars in three selected parts of the urban area are estimated to be in the order of 40–100 million U.S. dollars. In the case of TITAN2D, the resulting lahar-affected area only includes infrastructure assets mainly located along the Río Chili. Results indicate that although simulation codes could be useful tools in the analysis of lahar hazard scenarios, it is still premature to regard them as accurate sources of information for actual decision making related to risk mitigation at the local level. More research is required to further adjust simulation codes and refine risk scenarios. The first priority for the mitigation of the volcanic hazard faced by the city of Arequipa should be improvement of the risk map (a hazard map has already been drawn and is under scrutiny) and the preparation of contingency plans