Restratification Structure and Processes in the Irminger Sea

The Irminger Sea is one of the few regions in the ocean where deep (>1,000 m) convection occurs. Convection is followed by restratification during summer, when the stratification of the water column is reestablished and the convectively formed water is exported at depth. There are currently no descriptions of interannual variability and physical drivers of restratification in the Irminger Sea. We investigate restratification in the upper 600 m of the central Irminger Sea using reanalysis data for the years 1993–2019. We find distinctly different restratification processes in the upper 100 m (the upper layer) and the water below it (the lower layer). In the upper layer, the stratification is dominated by a seasonal cycle that matches the cycle of the surface heat flux. In 2010 and 2019, there were peaks in upper layer restratification, which could partly be related to strong atmospheric heat and freshwater fluxes. Greenland runoff likely also contributed to the high restratification, although this contribution could not be quantified in the present study. In the lower layer there is strong interannual variability in stratification, caused by variability both in the convection and the restratification strength. The restratification strength is strongly correlated with the eddy kinetic energy in the eastern Irminger Sea, suggesting that lower layer restratification is driven by lateral advection of warm, saline waters through Irminger Current eddies. In the future, surface warming and freshening of the Irminger Sea due to anthropogenic climate change are expected to increase upper layer stratification, potentially inhibiting convection

Tide and skew surge independence: new insights for flood risk

Storm surges are a significant hazard to coastal communities around the world, putting lives at risk and costing billions of dollars in damage. Understanding how storm surges and high tides interact is crucial for estimating extreme water levels so that we can protect coastal communities. We demonstrate that in a tidal regime the best measure of a storm surge is the skew surge, the difference between the observed and predicted high water within a tidal cycle. Based on tide gauge records spanning decades from the UK, US, Netherlands and Ireland we show that the magnitude of high water exerts no influence on the size of the most extreme skew surges. This is the first systematic proof that any storm surge can occur on any tide, which is essential for understanding worst case scenarios. The lack of surge generation dependency on water depth emphasises the dominant natural variability of weather systems in an observations-based analysis. Weak seasonal relationships between skew surges and high waters were identified at a minority of locations where long period changes to the tidal cycle interact with the storm season. Our results allow advances to be made in methods for estimating the joint probabilities of storm surges and tides

Recent Change—North Sea

This chapter discusses past and ongoing change in the following physical variables within the North Sea: temperature, salinity and stratification; currents and circulation; mean sea level; and extreme sea levels. Also considered are carbon dioxide; pH and nutrients; oxygen; suspended particulate matter and turbidity; coastal erosion, sedimentation and morphology; and sea ice. The distinctive character of the Wadden Sea is addressed, with a particular focus on nutrients and sediments. This chapter covers the past 200 years and focuses on the historical development of evidence (measurements, process understanding and models), the form, duration and accuracy of the evidence available, and what the evidence shows in terms of the state and trends in the respective variables. Much work has focused on detecting long-term change in the North Sea region, either from measurements or with models. Attempts to attribute such changes to, for example, anthropogenic forcing are still missing for the North Sea. Studies are urgently needed to assess consistency between observed changes and current expectations, in order to increase the level of confidence in projections of expected future conditions

Tropical air-sea interaction in general circulation models

An intercomparison is undertaken of the tropical behavior of 17 coupled ocean-atmosphere models in which at least one component may be termed a general circulation model (GCM). The aim is to provide a taxonomy—a description and rough classification—of behavior across the ensemble of models, focusing on interannual variability. The temporal behavior of the sea surface temperature (SST) field along the equator is presented for each model, SST being chosen as the primary variable for intercomparison due to its crucial role in mediating the coupling and because it is a sensitive indicator of climate drift. A wide variety of possible types of behavior are noted among the models. Models with substantial interannual tropical variability may be roughly classified into cases with propagating SST anomalies and cases in which the SST anomalies develop in place. A number of the models also exhibit significant drift with respect to SST climatology. However, there is not a clear relationship between climate drift and the presence or absence of interannual oscillations. In several cases, the mode of climate drift within the tropical Pacific appears to involve coupled feedback mechanisms similar to those responsible for El Niño variability. Implications for coupled-model development and for climate prediction on seasonal to interannual time scales are discussed. Overall, the results indicate considerable sensitivity of the tropical coupled ocean-atmosphere system and suggest that the simulation of the warm-pool/cold-tongue configuration in the equatorial Pacific represents a challenging test for climate model parameterizations

Irreducible uncertainty in near-term climate projections

Model simulations of the next few decades are widely used in assessments of climate change impacts and as guidance for adaptation. Their non-linear nature reveals a level of irreducible uncertainty which it is important to understand and quantify, especially for projections of near-term regional climate. Here we use large idealised initial condition ensembles of the FAMOUS global climate model with a 1 %/year compound increase in CO2 levels to quantify the range of future temperatures in model-based projections. These simulations explore the role of both atmospheric and oceanic initial conditions and are the largest such ensembles to date. Short-term simulated trends in global temperature are diverse, and cooling periods are more likely to be followed by larger warming rates. The spatial pattern of near-term temperature change varies considerably, but the proportion of the surface showing a warming is more consistent. In addition, ensemble spread in inter-annual temperature declines as the climate warms, especially in the North Atlantic. Over Europe, atmospheric initial condition uncertainty can, for certain ocean initial conditions, lead to 20 year trends in winter and summer in which every location can exhibit either strong cooling or rapid warming. However, the details of the distribution are highly sensitive to the ocean initial condition chosen and particularly the state of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. On longer timescales, the warming signal becomes more clear and consistent amongst different initial condition ensembles. An ensemble using a range of different oceanic initial conditions produces a larger spread in temperature trends than ensembles using a single ocean initial condition for all lead times. This highlights the potential benefits from initialising climate predictions from ocean states informed by observations. These results suggest that climate projections need to be performed with many more ensemble members than at present, using a range of ocean initial conditions, if the uncertainty in near-term regional climate is to be adequately quantified

Antenna-assisted picosecond control of nanoscale phase transition in vanadium dioxide

Nanoscale devices in which the interaction with light can be configured using external control signals hold great interest for next-generation optoelectronic circuits. Materials exhibiting a structural or electronic phase transition offer a large modulation contrast with multi-level optical switching and memory functionalities. In addition, plasmonic nanoantennas can provide an efficient enhancement mechanism for both the optically induced excitation and the readout of materials strategically positioned in their local environment. Here, we demonstrate picosecond all-optical switching of the local phase transition in plasmonic antenna-vanadium dioxide (VO2) hybrids, exploiting strong resonant field enhancement and selective optical pumping in plasmonic hotspots. Polarization- and wavelength-dependent pump-probe spectroscopy of multifrequency crossed antenna arrays shows that nanoscale optical switching in plasmonic hotspots does not affect neighboring antennas placed within 100 nm of the excited antennas. The antenna-assisted pumping mechanism is confirmed by numerical model calculations of the resonant, antenna-mediated local heating on a picosecond time scale. The hybrid, nanoscale excitation mechanism results in 20 times reduced switching energies and 5 times faster recovery times than a VO2 film without antennas, enabling fully reversible switching at over two million cycles per second and at local switching energies in the picojoule range. The hybrid solution of antennas and VO2 provides a conceptual framework to merge the field localization and phase-transition response, enabling precise, nanoscale optical memory functionalities