Prey selection by an apex predator : the importance of sampling uncertainty.

The impact of predation on prey populations has long been a focus of ecologists, but a firm understanding of the factors influencing prey selection, a key predictor of that impact, remains elusive. High levels of variability observed in prey selection may reflect true differences in the ecology of different communities but might also reflect a failure to deal adequately with uncertainties in the underlying data. Indeed, our review showed that less than 10% of studies of European wolf predation accounted for sampling uncertainty. Here, we relate annual variability in wolf diet to prey availability and examine temporal patterns in prey selection; in particular, we identify how considering uncertainty alters conclusions regarding prey selection. Over nine years, we collected 1,974 wolf scats and conducted drive censuses of ungulates in Alpe di Catenaia, Italy. We bootstrapped scat and census data within years to construct confidence intervals around estimates of prey use, availability and selection. Wolf diet was dominated by boar (61.5±3.90 [SE] % of biomass eaten) and roe deer (33.7±3.61%). Temporal patterns of prey densities revealed that the proportion of roe deer in wolf diet peaked when boar densities were low, not when roe deer densities were highest. Considering only the two dominant prey types, Manly's standardized selection index using all data across years indicated selection for boar (mean = 0.73±0.023). However, sampling error resulted in wide confidence intervals around estimates of prey selection. Thus, despite considerable variation in yearly estimates, confidence intervals for all years overlapped. Failing to consider such uncertainty could lead erroneously to the assumption of differences in prey selection among years. This study highlights the importance of considering temporal variation in relative prey availability and accounting for sampling uncertainty when interpreting the results of dietary studies

Global patterns in the divergence between phylogenetic diversity and species richness in terrestrial birds

Aim The conservation value of sites is often based on species richness (SR).However, metrics of phylogenetic diversity (PD) reflect a community’s evolu-tionary potential and reveal the potential for additional conservation valueabove that based purely on SR. Although PD is typically correlated with SR,localized differences in this relationship have been found in different taxa.Here, we explore geographical variation in global avian PD. We identify wherePD is higher or lower than expected (from SR) and explore correlates of thosedifferences, to find communities with high irreplaceability, in terms of theuniqueness of evolutionary histories.Location Global terrestrial.Methods Using comprehensive avian phylogenies and global distributionaldata for all extant birds, we calculated SR and Faith’s PD, a widely appliedmeasure of community PD, across the terrestrial world. We modelled the rela-tionship between avian PD for terrestrial birds and its potential environmentalcorrelates. Analyses were conducted at a global scale and also for individualbiogeographical realms. Potential explanatory variables of PD included SR,long-term climate stability, climatic diversity (using altitudinal range as aproxy), habitat diversity and proximity to neighbouring realms.Results We identified areas of high and low relative PD (rPD; PD relative tothat expected given SR). Areas of high rPD were associated with deserts andislands, while areas of low rPD were associated with historical glaciation. Ourresults suggest that rPD is correlated with different environmental variables indifferent parts of the world.Main conclusions There is geographical variation in avian rPD, much ofwhich can be explained by putative drivers. However, the importance of thesedrivers shows pronounced regional variation. Moreover, the variation in avianrPD differs substantially from patterns found for mammals and amphibians.We suggest that PD adds additional insights about the irreplaceability of com-munities to conventional metrics of biodiversity based on SR, and could beusefully included in assessments of site valuation and prioritizatio

Contrasting life histories in neighbouring populations of a large mammal

Background: A fundamental life history question is how individuals should allocate resources to reproduction optimally over time (reproductive allocation). The reproductive restraint hypothesis predicts that reproductive effort (RE; the allocation of resources to current reproduction) should peak at prime-age, whilst the terminal investment hypothesis predicts that individuals should continue to invest more resources in reproduction throughout life, owing to an ever-decreasing residual reproductive value. There is evidence supporting both hypotheses in the scientific literature. Methodology/Principal Findings: We used an uncommonly large, 38 year dataset on Alpine chamois (Rupicapra rupicapra) shot at various times during the rutting period to test these two hypotheses. We assumed that body mass loss in rutting males was strongly related to RE and, using a process-based approach, modelled how male relative mass loss rates varied with age. For different regions of our study area, we provide evidence consistent with different hypotheses for reproductive allocation. In sites where RE declined in older age, this appears to be strongly linked to declining body condition in old males. In this species, terminal investment may only occur in areas with lower rates of body mass senescence. Conclusions/Significance: Our results show that patterns of reproductive allocation may be more plastic than previously thought. It appears that there is a continuum from downturns in RE at old age to terminal investment that can be manifest, even across adjacent populations. Our work identifies uncertainty in the relationship between reproductive restraint and a lack of competitive ability in older life (driven by body mass senescence); both could explain a decline in RE in old age and may be hard to disentangle in empirical data. We discuss a number of environmental and anthropogenic factors which could influence reproductive life histories, underlining that life history patterns should not be generalised across different populations

Chemotherapy versus supportive care in advanced non-small cell lung cancer: improved survival without detriment to quality of life

BACKGROUND: In 1995 a meta-analysis of randomised trials investigating the value of adding chemotherapy to primary treatment for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) suggested a small survival benefit for cisplatin-based chemotherapy in each of the primary treatment settings. However, the metaanalysis included many small trials and trials with differing eligibility criteria and chemotherapy regimens. METHODS: The aim of the Big Lung Trial was to confirm the survival benefits seen in the meta-analysis and to assess quality of life and cost in the supportive care setting. A total of 725 patients were randomised to receive supportive care alone (n = 361) or supportive care plus cisplatin-based chemotherapy (n = 364). RESULTS: 65% of patients allocated chemotherapy (C) received all three cycles of treatment and a further 27% received one or two cycles. 74% of patients allocated no chemotherapy (NoC) received thoracic radiotherapy compared with 47% of the C group. Patients allocated C had a significantly better survival than those allocated NoC: HR 0.77 (95% CI 0.66 to 0.89, p = 0.0006), median survival 8.0 months for the C group v 5.7 months for the NoC group, a difference of 9 weeks. There were 19 (5%) treatment related deaths in the C group. There was no evidence that any subgroup benefited more or less fromchemotherapy. No significant differences were observed between the two groups in terms of the pre-defined primary and secondary quality of life end points, although large negative effects of chemotherapy were ruled out. The regimens used proved to be cost effective, the extra cost of chemotherapy being offset by longer survival. CONCLUSIONS: The survival benefit seen in this trial was entirely consistent with the NSCLC meta-analysis and subsequent similarly designed large trials. The information on quality of life and cost should enablepatients and their clinicians to make more informed treatment choices

Theoretical description of deformed proton emitters: nonadiabatic coupled-channel method

The newly developed nonadiabatic method based on the coupled-channel Schroedinger equation with Gamow states is used to study the phenomenon of proton radioactivity. The new method, adopting the weak coupling regime of the particle-plus-rotor model, allows for the inclusion of excitations in the daughter nucleus. This can lead to rather different predictions for lifetimes and branching ratios as compared to the standard adiabatic approximation corresponding to the strong coupling scheme. Calculations are performed for several experimentally seen, non-spherical nuclei beyond the proton dripline. By comparing theory and experiment, we are able to characterize the angular momentum content of the observed narrow resonance.Comment: 12 pages including 10 figure

Propagation of secondary antiprotons and cosmic rays in the Galaxy

Recent measurements of the cosmic ray (CR) antiproton flux have been shown to challenge existing CR propagation models. It was shown that the reacceleration models designed to match secondary to primary nuclei ratios (e.g., B/C) produce too few antiprotons. In the present paper we discuss one possibility to overcome these difficulties. Using the measured antiproton flux AND B/C ratio to fix the diffusion coefficient, we show that the spectra of primary nuclei as measured in the heliosphere may contain a fresh local "unprocessed" component at low energies perhaps associated with the Local Bubble, thus decreasing the measured secondary to primary nuclei ratio. The independent evidence for SN activity in the solar vicinity in the last few Myr supports this idea. The model reproduces antiprotons, B/C ratio, and elemental abundances up to Ni (Z<=28). Calculated isotopic distributions of Be and B are in perfect agreement with CR data. The abundances of three "radioactive clock" isotopes in CR, 10Be, 26Al, 36Cl, are all consistent and indicate a halo size z_h~4 kpc based on the most accurate data taken by the ACE spacecraft.Comment: 6 pages, 5 ps-figures, cospar.sty; Proc. of 34th COSPAR Scientific Assembly (Houston, 10-19 October 2002). Submitted to Advances in Space Research. More details can be found at http://www.gamma.mpe-garching.mpg.de/~aws/aws.htm

Customer emotions in service failure and recovery encounters

Emotions play a significant role in the workplace, and considerable attention has been given to the study of employee emotions. Customers also play a central function in organizations, but much less is known about customer emotions. This chapter reviews the growing literature on customer emotions in employee–customer interfaces with a focus on service failure and recovery encounters, where emotions are heightened. It highlights emerging themes and key findings, addresses the measurement, modeling, and management of customer emotions, and identifies future research streams. Attention is given to emotional contagion, relationships between affective and cognitive processes, customer anger, customer rage, and individual differences

Global surveillance of cancer survival 1995-2009: analysis of individual data for 25,676,887 patients from 279 population-based registries in 67 countries (CONCORD-2)

BACKGROUND: Worldwide data for cancer survival are scarce. We aimed to initiate worldwide surveillance of cancer survival by central analysis of population-based registry data, as a metric of the effectiveness of health systems, and to inform global policy on cancer control. METHODS: Individual tumour records were submitted by 279 population-based cancer registries in 67 countries for 25·7 million adults (age 15-99 years) and 75,000 children (age 0-14 years) diagnosed with cancer during 1995-2009 and followed up to Dec 31, 2009, or later. We looked at cancers of the stomach, colon, rectum, liver, lung, breast (women), cervix, ovary, and prostate in adults, and adult and childhood leukaemia. Standardised quality control procedures were applied; errors were corrected by the registry concerned. We estimated 5-year net survival, adjusted for background mortality in every country or region by age (single year), sex, and calendar year, and by race or ethnic origin in some countries. Estimates were age-standardised with the International Cancer Survival Standard weights. FINDINGS: 5-year survival from colon, rectal, and breast cancers has increased steadily in most developed countries. For patients diagnosed during 2005-09, survival for colon and rectal cancer reached 60% or more in 22 countries around the world; for breast cancer, 5-year survival rose to 85% or higher in 17 countries worldwide. Liver and lung cancer remain lethal in all nations: for both cancers, 5-year survival is below 20% everywhere in Europe, in the range 15-19% in North America, and as low as 7-9% in Mongolia and Thailand. Striking rises in 5-year survival from prostate cancer have occurred in many countries: survival rose by 10-20% between 1995-99 and 2005-09 in 22 countries in South America, Asia, and Europe, but survival still varies widely around the world, from less than 60% in Bulgaria and Thailand to 95% or more in Brazil, Puerto Rico, and the USA. For cervical cancer, national estimates of 5-year survival range from less than 50% to more than 70%; regional variations are much wider, and improvements between 1995-99 and 2005-09 have generally been slight. For women diagnosed with ovarian cancer in 2005-09, 5-year survival was 40% or higher only in Ecuador, the USA, and 17 countries in Asia and Europe. 5-year survival for stomach cancer in 2005-09 was high (54-58%) in Japan and South Korea, compared with less than 40% in other countries. By contrast, 5-year survival from adult leukaemia in Japan and South Korea (18-23%) is lower than in most other countries. 5-year survival from childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia is less than 60% in several countries, but as high as 90% in Canada and four European countries, which suggests major deficiencies in the management of a largely curable disease. INTERPRETATION: International comparison of survival trends reveals very wide differences that are likely to be attributable to differences in access to early diagnosis and optimum treatment. Continuous worldwide surveillance of cancer survival should become an indispensable source of information for cancer patients and researchers and a stimulus for politicians to improve health policy and health-care systems

All-sky search for long-duration gravitational wave transients with initial LIGO

We present the results of a search for long-duration gravitational wave transients in two sets of data collected by the LIGO Hanford and LIGO Livingston detectors between November 5, 2005 and September 30, 2007, and July 7, 2009 and October 20, 2010, with a total observational time of 283.0 days and 132.9 days, respectively. The search targets gravitational wave transients of duration 10-500 s in a frequency band of 40-1000 Hz, with minimal assumptions about the signal waveform, polarization, source direction, or time of occurrence. All candidate triggers were consistent with the expected background; as a result we set 90% confidence upper limits on the rate of long-duration gravitational wave transients for different types of gravitational wave signals. For signals from black hole accretion disk instabilities, we set upper limits on the source rate density between 3.4×10-5 and 9.4×10-4 Mpc-3 yr-1 at 90% confidence. These are the first results from an all-sky search for unmodeled long-duration transient gravitational waves. © 2016 American Physical Society