Energy efficient buildings, the 2030 Agenda and the Swedish environmental goal system

The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development was adopted by all United Nations member states in 2015. Since then, the Agenda and its 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) has become a broad framework for sustainable development. In Sweden, the ecological dimension of the 2030 Agenda is represented by the national environmental goal system, which the environmental quality objectives (EQOs) are an integral part of. Currently only one of the EQOs is reached. However, since the 2030 Agenda is experiencing a global momentum, it may be used to increase the pace in the work towards the EQOs.  This study aims to examine how the 2030 Agenda can be used as a tool for working towards the Swedish environmental goal system. This is done through an actor analysis based on literature studies and qualitative interviews, where the work towards the Agenda and the national environmental goals in different sectors is analyzed. In addition to the actor analysis, a case study is conducted to investigate how energy efficient buildings can contribute to reaching SDG 11 and the EQOs Reduced climate impact and A Good Built Environment. The case study concerns the office building Trikåfabriken in Stockholm’s Hammarby Sjöstad district. Trikåfabriken’s energy use is analyzed through the software VIP-Energy, and further energy efficiency measures are evaluated. These include adding more solar panels to the roof, increasing the solar protection on windows and decreasing the activity in the building. The results show that most studied actors work with the 2030 Agenda to some extent, but few outside of the public sector are actively working with the EQOs. There is however a consensus that the Agenda correlates with the EQOs. The case study shows that Trikåfabriken contributes to reaching SDG 11 and the EQOs Reduced climate impact and A Good Built Environment due to its design and embedded technologies. Regarding further energy efficiency measures, the results show that a reduced activity would lead to a higher energy use, whereas the two other measures would reduce it.

Environmental and health impacts when replacing kerosene lamps with solar lanterns : A study on global warming potential and household air pollution

In regions with low energy access kerosene lamps are commonly used, and these emit carbon dioxide (CO2) as well as household air pollutants (HAP). This bachelor thesis examines the possible reduction of carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2eq) emissions and HAP from kerosene lamps by replacing them with off-grid solar powered lanterns. Life cycle assessment, or LCA, is used as a method to assess CO2eq emissions from the solar lanterns. Data on emissions from the different stages in the solar lantern lifecycle, as well as for the kerosene lamps, is gathered through literature studies. Furthermore, possible improvements of health and social aspects as result of replacing kerosene lamps are studied and discussed. The results show that CO2eq emissions could be significantly lower if solar lanterns were used. During a lifetime of 30 years, a simple kerosene lamp emits a total of 15 500 kg CO2eq, a hurricane lantern 7 900 kg CO2eq, whereas a solar lantern emits 66.1 kg CO2eq. However, it is found that the possible harmful effects of HAP are much larger than those of CO2. Finally, possibilities and challenges regarding implementation and usage of off-grid solar powered lanterns are identified and discussed

Environmental and health impacts when replacing kerosene lamps with solar lanterns : A study on global warming potential and household air pollution

In regions with low energy access kerosene lamps are commonly used, and these emit carbon dioxide (CO2) as well as household air pollutants (HAP). This bachelor thesis examines the possible reduction of carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2eq) emissions and HAP from kerosene lamps by replacing them with off-grid solar powered lanterns. Life cycle assessment, or LCA, is used as a method to assess CO2eq emissions from the solar lanterns. Data on emissions from the different stages in the solar lantern lifecycle, as well as for the kerosene lamps, is gathered through literature studies. Furthermore, possible improvements of health and social aspects as result of replacing kerosene lamps are studied and discussed. The results show that CO2eq emissions could be significantly lower if solar lanterns were used. During a lifetime of 30 years, a simple kerosene lamp emits a total of 15 500 kg CO2eq, a hurricane lantern 7 900 kg CO2eq, whereas a solar lantern emits 66.1 kg CO2eq. However, it is found that the possible harmful effects of HAP are much larger than those of CO2. Finally, possibilities and challenges regarding implementation and usage of off-grid solar powered lanterns are identified and discussed

Energy efficient buildings, the 2030 Agenda and the Swedish environmental goal system

The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development was adopted by all United Nations member states in 2015. Since then, the Agenda and its 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) has become a broad framework for sustainable development. In Sweden, the ecological dimension of the 2030 Agenda is represented by the national environmental goal system, which the environmental quality objectives (EQOs) are an integral part of. Currently only one of the EQOs is reached. However, since the 2030 Agenda is experiencing a global momentum, it may be used to increase the pace in the work towards the EQOs.  This study aims to examine how the 2030 Agenda can be used as a tool for working towards the Swedish environmental goal system. This is done through an actor analysis based on literature studies and qualitative interviews, where the work towards the Agenda and the national environmental goals in different sectors is analyzed. In addition to the actor analysis, a case study is conducted to investigate how energy efficient buildings can contribute to reaching SDG 11 and the EQOs Reduced climate impact and A Good Built Environment. The case study concerns the office building Trikåfabriken in Stockholm’s Hammarby Sjöstad district. Trikåfabriken’s energy use is analyzed through the software VIP-Energy, and further energy efficiency measures are evaluated. These include adding more solar panels to the roof, increasing the solar protection on windows and decreasing the activity in the building. The results show that most studied actors work with the 2030 Agenda to some extent, but few outside of the public sector are actively working with the EQOs. There is however a consensus that the Agenda correlates with the EQOs. The case study shows that Trikåfabriken contributes to reaching SDG 11 and the EQOs Reduced climate impact and A Good Built Environment due to its design and embedded technologies. Regarding further energy efficiency measures, the results show that a reduced activity would lead to a higher energy use, whereas the two other measures would reduce it.

Prestudy on System Level Impacts of Automation, Electrification and Digitalization for Long-term Transport Analysis and Planning

The aim of this prestudy is to investigate how developments within automation, electrification and digitalization (AED) may affect the demand for passenger and freight transport in Sweden in terms of transport activity (ton-kilometers TKM and passenger-kilometers PKM), traffic activity (vehicle kilometers traveled VKT), modal distribution and other characteristics of the transport system, in order to assess whether the current base forecasts for 2040 that are developed and used by Trafikverket are still robust when accounting for developments and impacts of AED. Both freight and passenger transports are considered, as well as several transport modes. These include road (passenger cars, light and heavy trucks), rail (long and short distance), marine (ships and ferries) and air (planes). In addition, support infrastructure such as charging stations and goods terminals are considered. Automation technologies include automated vehicles and goods handling. Electrification refers to the replacement of conventional fuels with electric energy, as well as charging infrastructure. Digitalization is the broadest of the technological fields, and includes both digital services and digital infrastructure. The latter is furthermore an enabler for first and foremost automation, but also for electrification to some extent.   The theoretical perspective of the study is that transport demand is derived from the need to transport goods and people. Several drivers of transport demand (such as mode characteristics and economic structure) are presented and included in a general framework for assessing transport demand. The framework further incorporates a variety of previously constructed models and consists of three layers (activities &amp; material flows, transport services and infrastructure) which connect in two markets (the transport and traffic market). The effects on transport demand are assessed from a set of demand parameters, including TKM, PKM and VKT. Finally, six mechanisms through which AED could affect transport demand are presented and integrated into the general framework.    Through literature reviews and workshops, a set of general trends within AED were identified. Since there is a considerable uncertainty regarding how these trends could develop until 2040, an explorative scenario-based approach was employed. In order to structure this approach, a morphological analysis was conducted where the identified trends were formulated as parameters and their stages of development as attributes. Combined, these parameters and attributes formed a morphological box which could be used to illustrate different scenarios. In this study, four scenarios were then mapped in the morphological box: a base scenario intended to mimic explicit and implicit assumptions in the base forecast and three alternative scenarios (Partnership Society, Social Engineering 2.0 and Swimming in Data) intended to contrast the base scenario by illustrating alternative societal and technological development paths.    These scenarios and their respective morphological box mappings were then analyzed based on the general framework. The first step in this impact analysis consisted of investigating possible separate impacts of the parameters on each layer and market in the general framework. The mechanisms of which each parameter would affect the system were also identified. Examples of effects include changes in generalized costs and service levels. In the second step, the impacts from combined AED development were studied based on the scenario mappings in the morphological box. This highlights possible synergies between the technologies. Finally, the combined effects were compared with the base scenario in order to reach the study’s aim.     The results of the analysis show that automation, electrification and digitalization technologies separately could lead to changes in transport efficiency as well costs. Furthermore, synergetic effects leading to even stronger impacts on factors such as these could arise when they are combined. Through the general framework and the demand impact mechanisms, it was shown that factors such as these could lead to changes in the transport demand, modal distribution and transport system characteristics. Since the scenario mapping shows that the base forecasts do not consider development in automation and digitalization to a significant extent, the base forecasts would probably not be robust if these technologies see a continued development and implementation in the transport system.QC 20231115</p

Prestudy on System Level Impacts of Automation, Electrification and Digitalization for Long-term Transport Analysis and Planning

The aim of this prestudy is to investigate how developments within automation, electrification and digitalization (AED) may affect the demand for passenger and freight transport in Sweden in terms of transport activity (ton-kilometers TKM and passenger-kilometers PKM), traffic activity (vehicle kilometers traveled VKT), modal distribution and other characteristics of the transport system, in order to assess whether the current base forecasts for 2040 that are developed and used by Trafikverket are still robust when accounting for developments and impacts of AED. Both freight and passenger transports are considered, as well as several transport modes. These include road (passenger cars, light and heavy trucks), rail (long and short distance), marine (ships and ferries) and air (planes). In addition, support infrastructure such as charging stations and goods terminals are considered. Automation technologies include automated vehicles and goods handling. Electrification refers to the replacement of conventional fuels with electric energy, as well as charging infrastructure. Digitalization is the broadest of the technological fields, and includes both digital services and digital infrastructure. The latter is furthermore an enabler for first and foremost automation, but also for electrification to some extent.   The theoretical perspective of the study is that transport demand is derived from the need to transport goods and people. Several drivers of transport demand (such as mode characteristics and economic structure) are presented and included in a general framework for assessing transport demand. The framework further incorporates a variety of previously constructed models and consists of three layers (activities &amp; material flows, transport services and infrastructure) which connect in two markets (the transport and traffic market). The effects on transport demand are assessed from a set of demand parameters, including TKM, PKM and VKT. Finally, six mechanisms through which AED could affect transport demand are presented and integrated into the general framework.    Through literature reviews and workshops, a set of general trends within AED were identified. Since there is a considerable uncertainty regarding how these trends could develop until 2040, an explorative scenario-based approach was employed. In order to structure this approach, a morphological analysis was conducted where the identified trends were formulated as parameters and their stages of development as attributes. Combined, these parameters and attributes formed a morphological box which could be used to illustrate different scenarios. In this study, four scenarios were then mapped in the morphological box: a base scenario intended to mimic explicit and implicit assumptions in the base forecast and three alternative scenarios (Partnership Society, Social Engineering 2.0 and Swimming in Data) intended to contrast the base scenario by illustrating alternative societal and technological development paths.    These scenarios and their respective morphological box mappings were then analyzed based on the general framework. The first step in this impact analysis consisted of investigating possible separate impacts of the parameters on each layer and market in the general framework. The mechanisms of which each parameter would affect the system were also identified. Examples of effects include changes in generalized costs and service levels. In the second step, the impacts from combined AED development were studied based on the scenario mappings in the morphological box. This highlights possible synergies between the technologies. Finally, the combined effects were compared with the base scenario in order to reach the study’s aim.     The results of the analysis show that automation, electrification and digitalization technologies separately could lead to changes in transport efficiency as well costs. Furthermore, synergetic effects leading to even stronger impacts on factors such as these could arise when they are combined. Through the general framework and the demand impact mechanisms, it was shown that factors such as these could lead to changes in the transport demand, modal distribution and transport system characteristics. Since the scenario mapping shows that the base forecasts do not consider development in automation and digitalization to a significant extent, the base forecasts would probably not be robust if these technologies see a continued development and implementation in the transport system.QC 20231115</p

Cancer associated proteins in blood plasma : Determining normal variation

Protein biomarkers have the potential to improve diagnosis, stratification of patients into treatment cohorts, follow disease progression and treatment response. One distinct group of potential biomarkers comprises proteins which have been linked to cancer, known as cancer associated proteins (CAPs). We determined the normal variation of 86 CAPs in 72 individual plasma samples collected from ten individuals using SRM mass spectrometry. Samples were collected weekly during 5 weeks from ten volunteers and over one day at nine fixed time points from three volunteers. We determined the degree of the normal variation depending on interpersonal variation, variation due to time of day, and variation over weeks and observed that the variation dependent on the time of day appeared to be the most important. Subdivision of the proteins resulted in two predominant protein groups containing 21 proteins with relatively high variation in all three factors (day, week and individual), and 22 proteins with relatively low variation in all factors. We present a strategy for prioritizing biomarker candidates for future studies based on stratification over their normal variation and have made all data publicly available. Our findings can be used to improve selection of biomarker candidates in future studies and to determine which proteins are most suitable depending on study design

The metabolites urobilin and sphingomyelin (30:1) are associated with incident heart failure in the general population

Aims: We aimed to investigate whether metabolomic profiling of blood can lead to novel insights into heart failure pathogenesis or improved risk prediction. Methods: Mass spectrometry-based metabolomic profiling was performed in plasma or serum samples from three community-based cohorts without heart failure at baseline (total n=3,924; 341 incident heart failure events, median follow-up ranging from 4.6 to 13.9 years). Cox proportional hazards models were applied to assess the association of each of the 206 identified metabolites with incident heart failure in the discovery cohorts Prospective Investigation of the Vasculature in Uppsala Seniors (PIVUS, n=920) and Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (ULSAM, n=1,121). Replication was undertaken in the independent cohort TwinGene (n=1,797). We also assessed whether metabolites could improve the prediction of heart failure beyond established risk factors (age, sex, body mass index, low-density lipoprotein- and high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, triglycerides, lipid medication, diabetes, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, blood pressure medication, glomerular filtration rate, smoking status, and myocardial infarction prior to or during follow-up). Results: Higher circulating urobilin and lower sphingomyelin (30:1) were associated with incident heart failure in age- and sex-adjusted models in the discovery and replication sample. The hazard ratio (HR) for urobilin in the replication cohort was estimated to 1.29 per SD unit, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03-1.63) and for sphingomyelin (30:1) to 0.72 (95% CI 0.58-0.89). Results remained similar after further adjustment for established heart failure risk factors in meta-analyses of all three cohorts. Urobilin concentrations were inversely associated with left ventricular ejection fraction at baseline in the PIVUS cohort (β= -0.70 (95% CI -1.03-(-0.38)). No improvement in risk prediction was observed when adding the two top metabolites (C-index 0.787 (95% CI 0.752-0.823)) or nine Lasso-selected metabolites (0.790 (95% CI 0.754-0.826)) to a modified Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) heart failure risk score model (0.780 (95% CI 0.745-0.816)). Conclusions: Our metabolomics study identified associations of circulating levels of the heme breakdown product urobilin, and sphingomyelin (30:1), a cell membrane component involved in signal transduction and apoptosis, with incident heart failure