Modelling the monthly abundance of Culicoides biting midges in nine European countries using Random Forests machine learning

Background: Culicoides biting midges transmit viruses resulting in disease in ruminants and equids such as bluetongue, Schmallenberg disease and African horse sickness. In the past decades, these diseases have led to important economic losses for farmers in Europe. Vector abundance is a key factor in determining the risk of vector-borne disease spread and it is, therefore, important to predict the abundance of Culicoides species involved in the transmission of these pathogens. The objectives of this study were to model and map the monthly abundances of Culicoides in Europe. Methods: We obtained entomological data from 904 farms in nine European countries (Spain, France, Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Poland, Denmark, Sweden and Norway) from 2007 to 2013. Using environmental and climatic predictors from satellite imagery and the machine learning technique Random Forests, we predicted the monthly average abundance at a 1 km2 resolution. We used independent test sets for validation and to assess model performance. Results: The predictive power of the resulting models varied according to month and the Culicoides species/ensembles predicted. Model performance was lower for winter months. Performance was higher for the Obsoletus ensemble, followed by the Pulicaris ensemble, while the model for Culicoides imicola showed a poor performance. Distribution and abundance patterns corresponded well with the known distributions in Europe. The Random Forests model approach was able to distinguish differences in abundance between countries but was not able to predict vector abundance at individual farm level. Conclusions: The models and maps presented here represent an initial attempt to capture large scale geographical and temporal variations in Culicoides abundance. The models are a first step towards producing abundance inputs for R0 modelling of Culicoides-borne infections at a continental scale

Monthly variation in the probability of presence of adult Culicoides populations in nine European countries and the implications for targeted surveillance

Background: Biting midges of the genus Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) are small hematophagous insects responsible for the transmission of bluetongue virus, Schmallenberg virus and African horse sickness virus to wild and domestic ruminants and equids. Outbreaks of these viruses have caused economic damage within the European Union. The spatio-temporal distribution of biting midges is a key factor in identifying areas with the potential for disease spread. The aim of this study was to identify and map areas of neglectable adult activity for each month in an average year. Average monthly risk maps can be used as a tool when allocating resources for surveillance and control programs within Europe. Methods : We modelled the occurrence of C. imicola and the Obsoletus and Pulicaris ensembles using existing entomological surveillance data from Spain, France, Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Denmark, Sweden, Norway and Poland. The monthly probability of each vector species and ensembles being present in Europe based on climatic and environmental input variables was estimated with the machine learning technique Random Forest. Subsequently, the monthly probability was classified into three classes: Absence, Presence and Uncertain status. These three classes are useful for mapping areas of no risk, areas of high-risk targeted for animal movement restrictions, and areas with an uncertain status that need active entomological surveillance to determine whether or not vectors are present. Results: The distribution of Culicoides species ensembles were in agreement with their previously reported distribution in Europe. The Random Forest models were very accurate in predicting the probability of presence for C. imicola (mean AUC = 0.95), less accurate for the Obsoletus ensemble (mean AUC = 0.84), while the lowest accuracy was found for the Pulicaris ensemble (mean AUC = 0.71). The most important environmental variables in the models were related to temperature and precipitation for all three groups. Conclusions: The duration periods with low or null adult activity can be derived from the associated monthly distribution maps, and it was also possible to identify and map areas with uncertain predictions. In the absence of ongoing vector surveillance, these maps can be used by veterinary authorities to classify areas as likely vector-free or as likely risk areas from southern Spain to northern Sweden with acceptable precision. The maps can also focus costly entomological surveillance to seasons and areas where the predictions and vector-free status remain uncertain

Cost-effectiveness and Quality of Specialized and Routine Care in a German Cohort of Patients with Chronic Pruritus

Müller S, Ständer S, Naatz M, Augustin M, Steinke S. Cost-effectiveness and Quality of Specialized and Routine Care in a German Cohort of Patients with Chronic Pruritus. Acta Dermato-Venereologica. 2023;103: adv4868.Chronic pruritus is a prevalent interdisciplinary symptom with a strong influence on health-related quality of life. Patients need extensive diagnostics and long-term treatment. This retrospective and prospective cohort study compared routine and university-based specialized care in terms of cost-effectiveness and patient benefit. Direct medical and non-medical costs and patient-reported outcomes (PRO; pruritus intensity, quality of life, treatment needs and benefits) were assessed. Data analyses were conducted using descriptive methods and non-parametric statistical tests. A total of 300 adult patients (54.3% female) participated in the study. Six months after the treatment start in a specialized German pruritus care unit, the total costs were significantly reduced (mean total costs 686 vs 433 per patient per half year (total cohort); p<0.001; mean out-of-pocket costs 198 vs 124 per half year (total cohort), p<0.001). Pruritus intensity (numerical rating scale 5.3 vs 3.7, p<0.001), quality of life (Dermatology Life Quality Index 8.9 vs 5.7, p<0.001) and patient benefit (Patient Benefit Index Pruritus 1.2 vs 2.1, p<0.001) improved significantly (total cohort). The results of this study show, that treatment of chronic pruritus patients in a specialized itch centre leads to an improvement in patient benefit and reduces the economic burden at the same time

Data_Sheet_1_Hepatorenal dysfunction in patients with chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension.docx

BackgroundCardiac interactions with organs such as the liver or kidneys have been described in different cardiovascular diseases. However, the clinical relevance of hepatorenal dysfunction in chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension (CTEPH) remains unclear. We determined the association of hepatorenal dysfunction (measured using the Model for End-stage Liver Disease Sodium [MELDNa] score) with right heart function and survival in patients with CTEPH.MethodsWe analyzed all patients with CTEPH in the Giessen Pulmonary Hypertension Registry who had available MELDNa scores and were not taking vitamin K antagonists. The MELDNa score was calculated as MELD score − serum Na − (0.025 * MELD score * (140 − serum Na)) + 140; the MELD score was calculated as 10*(0.957*ln(creatinine)+0.378*ln(bilirubin)+1.12*ln(International Normalized Ratio))+6.43.ResultsSeventy-two patients were included (74% female; median [Q1, Q3] MELDNa: 9 [6, 11]). MELDNa correlated well with right atrial and ventricular function and pulmonary hemodynamics. Forward regression analysis revealed that hepatorenal dysfunction mainly depends on right atrial strain and tricuspid regurgitation, but not right ventricular systolic dysfunction. Hepatorenal dysfunction predicted mortality at baseline and follow-up (adjusted hazard ratios [95% confidence intervals] per unit increase of MELDNa: 1.6 [1.1, 2.4] and 1.8 [1.1, 2.9], respectively). Changes in hepatorenal function also predicted mortality.ConclusionHepatorenal dysfunction in CTEPH is primarily associated with venous congestion rather than cardiac forward failure. As a surrogate parameter for hepatorenal dysfunction, MELDNa is a simple method to identify at-risk patients at baseline and follow-up.</p

Standards-based metadata management for molecular simulations

State-of-the-art research in a variety of natural sciences depends heavily on methods of computational chemistry, for example, the calculation of the properties of materials, proteins, catalysts, and drugs. Applications providing such methods require a lot of expertise to handle their complexity and the usage of high-performance computing. The MoSGrid (molecular simulation grid) infrastructure relieves this burden from scientists by providing a science gateway, which eases access to and usage of computational chemistry applications. One of its cornerstones is the molecular simulations markup language (MSML), an extension of the chemical markup language. MSML abstracts all chemical as well as computational aspects of simulations. An application and its results can be described with common semantics. Using such application, independent descriptions users can easily switch between different applications or compare them. This paper introduces MSML, its integration into a science gateway, and its usage for molecular dynamics, quantum chemistry, and protein docking

The MoSGrid science gateway : a complete solution for molecular simulations

The MoSGrid portal offers an approach to carry out high-quality molecular simulations on distributed compute infrastructures to scientists with all kinds of background and experience levels. A user-friendly Web interface guarantees the ease-of-use of modern chemical simulation applications well established in the field. The usage of well-defined workflows annotated with metadata largely improves the reproducibility of simulations in the sense of good lab practice. The MoSGrid science gateway supports applications in the domains quantum chemistry (QC), molecular dynamics (MD), and docking. This paper presents the open-source MoSGrid architecture as well as lessons learned from its design