Surface and atmospheric driven variability of the single‐layer urban canopy model under clear‐sky conditions over London

Urban canopy models (UCMs) are parametrization schemes that are used to improve weather forecasts in urban areas. The performance of UCMs depends on understanding potential uncertainty sources that can generally originate from the (a) urban surface parameters, (b) atmospheric forcing, and (c) physical description. Here, we investigate the relative importance of surface and atmospheric driven model sensitivities of the single‐layer urban canopy model when fully interactive with a 1‐D configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). The impact of different physical descriptions in UCMs and other key parameterization schemes of WRF is considered. As a case study, we use a 54‐h period with clear‐sky conditions over London. Our analysis is focused on the surface radiation and energy flux partitioning and the intensity of turbulent mixing. The impact of changes in atmospheric forcing and surface parameter values on model performance appears to be comparable in magnitude. The advection of potential temperature, aerosol optical depth, exchange coefficient and roughness length for heat, surface albedo, and the anthropogenic heat flux are the most influential. Some atmospheric forcing variations have similar impact on the key physical processes as changes in surface parameters. Hence, error compensation may occur if one optimizes model performance using a single variable or combinations that have potential for carryover effects (e.g., temperature). Process diagrams help differences to be understood in the physical description of different UCMs, boundary layer, and radiation schemes and between the model and the observations

Urban Water Storage Capacity Inferred From Observed Evapotranspiration Recession

Water storage plays an important role in mitigating heat and flooding in urban areas. Assessment of the water storage capacity of cities remains challenging due to the inherent heterogeneity of the urban surface. Traditionally, effective storage has been estimated from runoff. Here, we present a novel approach to estimate effective water storage capacity from recession rates of observed evaporation during precipitation-free periods. We test this approach for cities at neighborhood scale with eddy-covariance based latent heat flux observations from 14 contrasting sites with different local climate zones, vegetation cover and characteristics, and climates. Based on analysis of 583 drydowns, we find storage capacities to vary between 1.3 and 28.4 mm, corresponding to e-folding timescales of 1.8-20.1 days. This makes the urban storage capacity at least five times smaller than all the observed values for natural ecosystems, reflecting an evaporation regime characterized by extreme water limitation.Peer reviewe

Exploring the Possible Role of Small-Scale Terrain Drag on Stable Boundary Layers over Land

This paper addresses the possible role of unresolved terrain drag, relative to the turbulent drag on the development of the stable atmospheric boundary layer over land. Adding a first-order estimate for terrain drag to the turbulent drag appears to provide drag that is similar to the enhanced turbulent drag obtained with the so-called long-tail mixing functions. These functions are currently used in many operational models for weather and climate, although they lack a clear physical basis. Consequently, a simple and practical quasi-empirical parameterization of terrain drag divergence for use in large-scale models is proposed and is tested in a column mode. As an outcome, the cross-isobaric mass flow (a measure for cyclone filling) with the new scheme, using realistic turbulent drag, appears to be equal to what is found with the unphysical long-tail scheme. At the same time, the new scheme produces a much more realistic less-deep boundary layer than is obtained by using the long-tail mixing function.Keywords: Land surface, Small scale processes, Boundary layerKeywords: Land surface, Small scale processes, Boundary laye

Dutch dairy farmers' perspectives on culling reasons and strategies

Since the abolishment of the milk quota system in Europe in 2014 and the introduction of environmental policies such as the phosphate rights system in the Netherlands, the reasons for culling dairy cows might have changed. The aim of this study was to determine the culling reasons for dairy cattle and to identify farmers' culling strategies and their intentions regarding the alteration of indicated culling strategies. To this end, an online questionnaire was distributed among dairy farmers nationally that resulted in 207 responses. Results showed that the most frequent culling reasons were related to problems with reproduction, udder, and hoof health. Primiparous cows were primarily culled for miscellaneous reasons such as injury, reproduction failure, and low milk yield. Multiparous cows were culled predominantly for reproduction failure, udder health and hoof health reasons. Most respondents indicated that they consider formulating a culling strategy, based on certain rules of thumb regarding the most common reasons for culling. Most farmers also reported that culling decisions on their farms were perceived to be unavoidable, though reproductive culling decisions are primarily voluntary. Most respondents stated that they intended to reduce the culling rate for better economic gain did not intend to alter the amount of replacement stock reared. The applied rules of thumb regarding culling strategies do not seem to have changed since the policy changes in dairy farming. The question remains whether farmers' rules of thumb might have made them unaware of the actual economic consequences of their culling strategies under the altered situation

A high-resolution perspective of extreme rainfall and river flow under extreme climate change in Southeast Asia

This article provides high-resolution information on the projected changes in annual extreme rainfall and high- and low-streamflow events over Southeast Asia under extreme climate change. The analysis was performed using the bias-corrected result of the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) multi-model experiment for the period 1971–2050. Eleven rainfall indices were calculated, along with streamflow simulation using the PCR-GLOBWB hydrological model. The historical period 1981–2010 and the near-future period 2021–2050 were considered for this analysis. Results indicate that, over former mainland Southeast Asia, Myanmar will face more challenges in the near future. The east coast of Myanmar will experience more extreme high-rainfall conditions, while northern Myanmar will have longer dry spells. Over the Indonesian maritime continent, Sumatra and Java will suffer from an increase in dry-spell length of up to 40 %, while the increase in extreme high rainfall will occur over Borneo and mountainous areas in Papua. Based on the streamflow analysis, the impact of climate change is more prominent in a low-flow event than in a high-flow event. The majority of rivers in the central Mekong catchment, Sumatra, Peninsular Malaysia, Borneo, and Java will experience more extreme low-flow events. More extreme dry conditions in the near future are also seen from the increasing probability of future low-flow occurrences, which reaches 101 % and 90 %, on average, over Sumatra and Java, respectively. In addition, based on our results over Java and Sumatra, we found that the changes in extreme high- and low-streamflow events are more pronounced in rivers with steep hydrographs (rivers where flash floods are easily triggered), while rivers with flat hydrographs have a higher risk in terms of the probability of low-flow change.</p

The International Urban Energy Balance Models Comparison Project: First Results from Phase 1

A large number of urban surface energy balance models now exist with different assumptions about the important features of the surface and exchange processes that need to be incorporated. To date, no com- parison of these models has been conducted; in contrast, models for natural surfaces have been compared extensively as part of the Project for Intercomparison of Land-surface Parameterization Schemes. Here, the methods and first results from an extensive international comparison of 33 models are presented. The aim of the comparison overall is to understand the complexity required to model energy and water exchanges in urban areas. The degree of complexity included in the models is outlined and impacts on model performance are discussed. During the comparison there have been significant developments in the models with resulting improvements in performance (root-mean-square error falling by up to two-thirds). Evaluation is based on a dataset containing net all-wave radiation, sensible heat, and latent heat flux observations for an industrial area in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. The aim of the comparison is twofold: to identify those modeling ap- proaches that minimize the errors in the simulated fluxes of the urban energy balance and to determine the degree of model complexity required for accurate simulations. There is evidence that some classes of models perform better for individual fluxes but no model performs best or worst for all fluxes. In general, the simpler models perform as well as the more complex models based on all statistical measures. Generally the schemes have best overall capability to model net all-wave radiation and least capability to model latent heat flux

Performance evaluation of MeteoTracker mobile sensor for outdoor applications

The morphological complexity of urban environments results in a high spatial and temporal variability of the urban microclimate. The consequent demand for high-resolution atmospheric data remains a challenge for atmospheric research and operational application. The recent widespread availability and increasing adoption of low-cost mobile sensing offer the opportunity to integrate observations from conventional monitoring networks with microclimatic and air pollution data at a finer spatial and temporal scale. So far, the relatively low quality of the measurements and outdoor performance compared to conventional instrumentation has discouraged the full deployment of mobile sensors for routine monitoring. The present study addresses the performance of a commercial mobile sensor, the MeteoTracker (IoTopon Srl), recently launched on the market to quantify the microclimatic characteristics of the outdoor environment. The sensor follows the philosophy of the Internet of Things technology, being low cost, having an automatic data flow via personal smartphones and online data sharing, supporting user-friendly software, and having the potential to be deployed in large quantities. In this paper, the outdoor performance is evaluated through tests aimed at quantifying (i) the intra-sensor variability under similar atmospheric conditions and (ii) the outdoor accuracy compared to a reference weather station under sub-optimal (in a fixed location) and optimal (mobile) sensor usage. Data-driven corrections are developed and successfully applied to improve the MeteoTracker data quality. In particular, a recursive method for the simultaneous improvement of relative humidity, dew point, and humidex index proves to be crucial for increasing the data quality. The results mark an intra-sensor variability of approximately ± 0.5 °C for air temperature and ± 1.2 % for the corrected relative humidity, both of which are within the declared sensor accuracy. The sensor captures the same atmospheric variability as the reference sensor during both fixed and mobile tests, showing positive biases (overestimation) for both variables. Through the mobile test, the outdoor accuracy is observed to be between ± 0.3 to ± 0.5 °C for air temperature and between ± 3 % and ± 5 % for the relative humidity, ranking the MeteoTracker in the real accuracy range of similar commercial sensors from the literature and making it a valid solution for atmospheric monitoring.</p

Near-real-time CO2_2 fluxes from CarbonTracker Europe for high-resolution atmospheric modeling

We present the CarbonTracker Europe High-Resolution (CTE-HR) system that estimates carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange over Europe at high resolution (0.1 × 0.2∘) and in near real time (about 2 months' latency). It includes a dynamic anthropogenic emission model, which uses easily available statistics on economic activity, energy use, and weather to generate anthropogenic emissions with dynamic time profiles at high spatial and temporal resolution (0.1×0.2∘, hourly). Hourly net ecosystem productivity (NEP) calculated by the Simple Biosphere model Version 4 (SiB4) is driven by meteorology from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis 5th Generation (ERA5) dataset. This NEP is downscaled to 0.1×0.2∘ using the high-resolution Coordination of Information on the Environment (CORINE) land-cover map and combined with the Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS) fire emissions to create terrestrial carbon fluxes. Ocean CO2 fluxes are included in our product, based on Jena CarboScope ocean CO2 fluxes, which are downscaled using wind speed and temperature. Jointly, these flux estimates enable modeling of atmospheric CO2 mole fractions over Europe. We assess the skill of the CTE-HR CO2 fluxes (a) to reproduce observed anomalies in biospheric fluxes and atmospheric CO2 mole fractions during the 2018 European drought, (b) to capture the reduction of anthropogenic emissions due to COVID-19 lockdowns, (c) to match mole fraction observations at Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS) sites across Europe after atmospheric transport with the Transport Model, version 5 (TM5) and the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT), driven by ECMWF-IFS, and (d) to capture the magnitude and variability of measured CO2 fluxes in the city center of Amsterdam (the Netherlands). We show that CTE-HR fluxes reproduce large-scale flux anomalies reported in previous studies for both biospheric fluxes (drought of 2018) and anthropogenic emissions (COVID-19 pandemic in 2020). After applying transport of emitted CO2, the CTE-HR fluxes have lower median root mean square errors (RMSEs) relative to mole fraction observations than fluxes from a non-informed flux estimate, in which biosphere fluxes are scaled to match the global growth rate of CO2 (poor person's inversion). RMSEs are close to those of the reanalysis with the CTE data assimilation system. This is encouraging given that CTE-HR fluxes did not profit from the weekly assimilation of CO2 observations as in CTE. We furthermore compare CO2 concentration observations at the Dutch Lutjewad coastal tower with high-resolution STILT transport to show that the high-resolution fluxes manifest variability due to different emission sectors in summer and winter. Interestingly, in periods where synoptic-scale transport variability dominates CO2 concentration variations, the CTE-HR fluxes perform similarly to low-resolution fluxes (5–10× coarsened). The remaining 10 % of the simulated CO2 mole fraction differs by >2 ppm between the low-resolution and high-resolution flux representation and is clearly associated with coherent structures (“plumes”) originating from emission hotspots such as power plants. We therefore note that the added resolution of our product will matter most for very specific locations and times when used for atmospheric CO2 modeling. Finally, in a densely populated region like the Amsterdam city center, our modeled fluxes underestimate the magnitude of measured eddy covariance fluxes but capture their substantial diurnal variations in summertime and wintertime well. We conclude that our product is a promising tool for modeling the European carbon budget at a high resolution in near real time. The fluxes are freely available from the ICOS Carbon Portal (CC-BY-4.0) to be used for near-real-time monitoring and modeling, for example, as an a priori flux product in a CO2 data assimilation system. The data are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/20Z1-AYJ2 (van der Woude, 2022a)

Initial results from Phase 2 of the international urban energy balance model comparison

Urban land surface schemes have been developed to model the distinct features of the urban surface and the associated energy exchange processes. These models have been developed for a range of purposes and make different assumptions related to the inclusion and representation of the relevant processes. Here, the first results of Phase 2 from an international comparison project to evaluate 32 urban land surface schemes are presented. This is the first large-scale systematic evaluation of these models. In four stages, participants were given increasingly detailed information about an urban site for which urban fluxes were directly observed. At each stage, each group returned their models' calculated surface energy balance fluxes. Wide variations are evident in the performance of the models for individual fluxes. No individual model performs best for all fluxes. Providing additional information about the surface generally results in better performance. However, there is clear evidence that poor choice of parameter values can cause a large drop in performance for models that otherwise perform well. As many models do not perform well across all fluxes, there is need for caution in their application, and users should be aware of the implications for applications and decision making