Quantitative analysis of transmission parameters for bluetongue virus serotype 8 in Western Europe in 2006

The recent bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) epidemic in Western Europe struck hard. Controlling the infection was difficult and a good and safe vaccine was not available until the spring of 2008. Little was known regarding BTV transmission in Western Europe or the efficacy of control measures. Quantitative details on transmission are essential to assess the potential and efficacy of such measures

West Nile virus antibody prevalence in horses of Ukraine

West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne virus of global importance. Over the last two decades, it has been responsible for significant numbers of cases of illness in humans and animals in many parts of the world. In Ukraine, WNV infections in humans and birds were first reported more than 25 years ago, yet the current epidemiological status is quite unclear. In this study, serum samples from over 300 equines were collected and screened in order to detect current WNV activity in Ukraine with the goal to estimate the risk of infection for humans and horses. Sera were tested by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and virus neutralization assay (NT) to detect WNV- specific antibodies. The results clearly revealed that WNV circulates in most of the regions from which samples were obtained, shown by a WNV seroprevalence rate of 13.5% of examined horses. This is the first topical report indicating the presence of WNV infections in horses in Ukraine, and the results of this study provide evidence of a widespread WNV circulation in this country

Epidemiology of Bluetongue Virus Serotype 8, Germany

In Germany, bluetongue disease had not been reported before 2006. During August 2006–August 2008, >24,000 bluetongue virus serotype 8 infections were reported, most (20,635) in 2007. In 2006 and 2007, respectively, case-fatality rates were 6.4% and 13.1% for cattle and 37.5% and 41.5% for sheep. Vaccination in 2008 decreased cases

Harmonizing methods for wildlife abundance estimation and pathogen detection in Europe-a questionnaire survey on three selected host-pathogen combinations

Questionnaire on common vole and Francisella tularensis. (PDF 2040 kb

Impact of El Niño/Southern Oscillation on Visceral Leishmaniasis, Brazil

We used time-series analysis and linear regression to investigate the relationship between the annual Niño-3 index from 1980 to 1998 and the annual incidence of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the State of Bahia, Brazil, during 1985–1999. An increase in VL incidence was observed in the post-El Niño years 1989 (+38.7%) and 1995 (+33.5%). The regression model demonstrates that the previous year’s mean Niño-3 index and the temporal trend account for approximately 50% of the variance in the annual incidence of VL in Bahia. The model shows a robust agreement with the real data, as only the influence of El Niño on the cycle of VL was analyzed. The results suggest that this relationship could be used to predict high-risk years for VL and thus help reduce health impact in susceptible regions in Brazil

Chances and Limitations of Wild Bird Monitoring for the Avian Influenza Virus H5N1 — Detection of Pathogens Highly Mobile in Time and Space

Highly pathogenic influenza virus (HPAIV) H5N1 proved to be remarkably mobile in migratory bird populations where it has led to extensive outbreaks for which the true number of affected birds usually cannot be determined. For the evaluation of avian influenza monitoring and HPAIV early warning systems, we propose a time-series analysis that includes the estimation of confidence intervals for (i) the prevalence in outbreak situations or (ii) in the apparent absence of disease in time intervals for specified regional units. For the German outbreak regions in 2006 and 2007, the upper 95% confidence limit allowed the detection of prevalences below 1% only for certain time intervals. Although more than 25,000 birds were sampled in Germany per year, the upper 95% confidence limit did not fall below 5% in the outbreak regions for most of the time. The proposed analysis can be used to monitor water bodies and high risk areas, also as part of an early-warning system. Chances for an improved targeting of the monitoring system as part of a risk-based approach are discussed with the perspective of reducing sample sizes