Variability and trends in total and vertically resolved stratospheric ozone

International audienceTrends in ozone columns and vertical distributions were calculated for the period 1979?2004 based on the three-dimensional ozone data set CATO (Candidoz Assimilated Three-dimensional Ozone) using a multiple linear regression model. CATO has been reconstructed from TOMS, GOME and SBUV total column ozone observations in an equivalent latitude and potential temperature framework and offers a pole to pole coverage of the stratosphere on 15 potential temperature levels. The regression model includes explanatory variables describing the influence of the quasi-biennial oscillation, volcanic eruptions, the solar cycle, the Brewer-Dobson circulation, Arctic ozone depletion, and the increase in stratospheric chlorine. The effects of displacements of the polar vortex and jet streams due to planetary waves, which may significantly affect trends at a given geographical latitude, are eliminated in the equivalent latitude framework. Ozone variability is largely explained by the QBO and stratospheric aerosol loading and the spatial structure of their influence is in good agreement with previous studies. The solar cycle signal peaks at about 30 to 35 km altitude which is lower than reported previously, and no negative signal is found in the tropical lower stratosphere. The Brewer-Dobson circulation shows a dominant contribution to interannual variability at both high and low latitudes and accounts for some of the ozone increase seen in the northern hemisphere since the mid-1990s. Arctic ozone depletion significantly affects the high northern latitudes between January and March and extends its influence to the mid-latitudes during later months. The vertical distribution of the ozone trend shows distinct negative trends at about 18 km in the lower stratosphere with largest declines over the poles, and above 35 km in the upper stratosphere. A narrow band of large negative trends extends into the tropical lower stratosphere. Assuming that the observed negative trend before 1995 continued to 2004 cannot explain the ozone changes since 1996. A model accounting for recent changes in EESC, aerosols and Eliassen-Palm flux, on the other hand, closely tracks ozone changes since 1995

Golgi Structure in Three Dimensions: Functional Insights from the Normal Rat Kidney Cell

Three-dimensional reconstructions of portions of the Golgi complex from cryofixed, freeze-substituted normal rat kidney cells have been made by dual-axis, high-voltage EM tomography at ∼7-nm resolution. The reconstruction shown here (∼1 × 1 × 4 μm3) contains two stacks of seven cisternae separated by a noncompact region across which bridges connect some cisternae at equivalent levels, but none at nonequivalent levels. The rest of the noncompact region is filled with both vesicles and polymorphic membranous elements. All cisternae are fenestrated and display coated buds. They all have about the same surface area, but they differ in volume by as much as 50%. The trans-most cisterna produces exclusively clathrin-coated buds, whereas the others display only nonclathrin coated buds. This finding challenges traditional views of where sorting occurs within the Golgi complex. Tubules with budding profiles extend from the margins of both cis and trans cisternae. They pass beyond neighboring cisternae, suggesting that these tubules contribute to traffic to and/or from the Golgi. Vesicle-filled “wells” open to both the cis and lateral sides of the stacks. The stacks of cisternae are positioned between two types of ER, cis and trans. The cis ER lies adjacent to the ER-Golgi intermediate compartment, which consists of discrete polymorphic membranous elements layered in front of the cis-most Golgi cisterna. The extensive trans ER forms close contacts with the two trans-most cisternae; this apposition may permit direct transfer of lipids between ER and Golgi membranes. Within 0.2 μm of the cisternae studied, there are 394 vesicles (8 clathrin coated, 190 nonclathrin coated, and 196 noncoated), indicating considerable vesicular traffic in this Golgi region. Our data place structural constraints on models of trafficking to, through, and from the Golgi complex

Extreme events in total ozone over Arosa – Part 2: Fingerprints of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry and effects on mean values and long-term changes

In this study the frequency of days with extreme low (termed ELOs) and extreme high (termed EHOs) total ozone values and their influence on mean values and trends are analyzed for the world's longest total ozone record (Arosa, Switzerland). The results show (a) an increase in ELOs and (b) a decrease in EHOs during the last decades and (c) that the overall trend during the 1970s and 1980s in total ozone is strongly dominated by changes in these extreme events. After removing the extremes, the time series shows a strongly reduced trend (reduction by a factor of 2.5 for trend in annual mean). Excursions in the frequency of extreme events reveal "fingerprints" of dynamical factors such as ENSO or NAO, and chemical factors, such as cold Arctic vortex ozone losses, as well as major volcanic eruptions of the 20th century (Gunung Agung, El Chichón, Mt. Pinatubo). Furthermore, atmospheric loading of ozone depleting substances leads to a continuous modification of column ozone in the Northern Hemisphere also with respect to extreme values (partly again in connection with polar vortex contributions). Application of extreme value theory allows the identification of many more such "fingerprints" than conventional time series analysis of annual and seasonal mean values. The analysis shows in particular the strong influence of dynamics, revealing that even moderate ENSO and NAO events have a discernible effect on total ozone. Overall the approach to extremal modelling provides new information on time series properties, variability, trends and the influence of dynamics and chemistry, complementing earlier analyses focusing only on monthly (or annual) mean values

Extreme events in total ozone over Arosa – Part 1: Application of extreme value theory

In this study ideas from extreme value theory are for the first time applied in the field of stratospheric ozone research, because statistical analysis showed that previously used concepts assuming a Gaussian distribution (e.g. fixed deviations from mean values) of total ozone data do not adequately address the structure of the extremes. We show that statistical extreme value methods are appropriate to identify ozone extremes and to describe the tails of the Arosa (Switzerland) total ozone time series. In order to accommodate the seasonal cycle in total ozone, a daily moving threshold was determined and used, with tools from extreme value theory, to analyse the frequency of days with extreme low (termed ELOs) and high (termed EHOs) total ozone at Arosa. The analysis shows that the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) provides an appropriate model for the frequency distribution of total ozone above or below a mathematically well-defined threshold, thus providing a statistical description of ELOs and EHOs. The results show an increase in ELOs and a decrease in EHOs during the last decades. The fitted model represents the tails of the total ozone data set with high accuracy over the entire range (including absolute monthly minima and maxima), and enables a precise computation of the frequency distribution of ozone mini-holes (using constant thresholds). Analyzing the tails instead of a small fraction of days below constant thresholds provides deeper insight into the time series properties. Fingerprints of dynamical (e.g. ENSO, NAO) and chemical features (e.g. strong polar vortex ozone loss), and major volcanic eruptions, can be identified in the observed frequency of extreme events throughout the time series. Overall the new approach to analysis of extremes provides more information on time series properties and variability than previous approaches that use only monthly averages and/or mini-holes and mini-highs

Peroxy radicals in the summer free troposphere: seasonality and potential for heterogeneous loss

The sum of peroxy radicals (HO<sub>2</sub>+Σ<sub><i>i</i></sub>R<sub><i>i</i></sub>O<sub>2</sub>) and supporting trace gases were measured on the Jungfraujoch (3580 m a.s.l.) during the late summer of 2005. The period was marked by extended times of heavy snow which led to reduction in the observed peroxy radicals during the snowy periods that was greater than the concomitant reduction in <i>j</i>(O<sup>1</sup>D). In the limit a first order loss rate of 0.0063 s<sup>−1</sup> can be derived for the peroxy radical loss in the snowy conditions that could be potentially ascribed to a heterogenous loss process. On snow free days photolysis of HCHO is shown to be a significant peroxy radical source. The seasonal trends of the peroxy radical concentrations have been mapped from the winter to summer transition in line with previous experiments. Net ozone production in late summer at the Jungfraujoch was net neutral to marginally ozone destructive. A value of 28±4 pptv is calculated for the ozone compensation point for the snow free days

Long-term changes in lower tropospheric baseline ozone concentrations at northern mid-latitudes

Changes in baseline (here understood as representative of continental to hemispheric scales) tropospheric O<sub>3</sub> concentrations that have occurred at northern mid-latitudes over the past six decades are quantified from available measurement records with the goal of providing benchmarks to which retrospective model calculations of the global O<sub>3</sub> distribution can be compared. Eleven data sets (ten ground-based and one airborne) including six European (beginning in the 1950's and before), three North American (beginning in 1984) and two Asian (beginning in 1991) are analyzed. When the full time periods of the data records are considered a consistent picture emerges; O<sub>3</sub> has increased at all sites in all seasons at approximately 1% yr<sup>−1</sup> relative to the site's 2000 yr mixing ratio in each season. For perspective, this rate of increase sustained from 1950 to 2000 corresponds to an approximate doubling. There is little if any evidence for statistically significant differences in average rates of increase among the sites, regardless of varying length of data records. At most sites (most definitively at the European sites) the rate of increase has slowed over the last decade (possibly longer), to the extent that at present O<sub>3</sub> is decreasing at some sites in some seasons, particularly in summer. The average rate of increase before 2000 shows significant seasonal differences (1.08 ± 0.09, 0.89 ± 0.10, 0.85 ± 0.11 and 1.21 ± 0.12% yr<sup>−1</sup> in spring, summer, autumn and winter, respectively, over North America and Europe)

An evaluation of the performance of chemistry transport models by comparison with research aircraft observations. Part 1: Concepts and overall model performance

A rigorous evaluation of five global Chemistry-Transport and two Chemistry-Climate Models operated by several different groups in Europe, was performed. Comparisons were made of the models with trace gas observations from a number of research aircraft measurement campaigns during the four-year period 1995-1998. Whenever possible the models were run over the same four-year period and at each simulation time step the instantaneous tracer fields were interpolated to all coinciding observation points. This approach allows for a very close comparison with observations and fully accounts for the specific meteorological conditions during the measurement flights. This is important considering the often limited availability and representativity of such trace gas measurements. A new extensive database including all major research and commercial aircraft measurements between 1995 and 1998, as well as ozone soundings, was established specifically to support this type of direct comparison. Quantitative methods were applied to judge model performance including the calculation of average concentration biases and the visualization of correlations and RMS errors in the form of so-called Taylor diagrams. We present the general concepts applied, the structure and content of the database, and an overall analysis of model skills over four distinct regions. These regions were selected to represent various atmospheric conditions and to cover large geographical domains such that sufficient observations are available for comparison. The comparison of model results with the observations revealed specific problems for each individual model. This study suggests the further improvements needed and serves as a benchmark for re-evaluations of such improvements. In general all models show deficiencies with respect to both mean concentrations and vertical gradients of important trace gases. These include ozone, CO and NOx at the tropopause. Too strong two-way mixing across the tropopause is suggested to be the main reason for differences between simulated and observed CO and ozone values. The generally poor correlations between simulated and measured NOx values suggest that in particular the NOx input by lightning and the convective transport from the polluted boundary layer are still not well described by current parameterizations, which may lead to significant differences in the spatial and seasonal distribution of NOx in the models. Simulated OH concentrations, on the other hand, were found to be in surprisingly good agreement with measured values

An evaluation of the performance of chemistry transport models - Part 2: Detailed comparison with two selected campaigns

This is the second part of a rigorous model evaluation study involving five global Chemistry-Transport and two Chemistry-Climate Models operated by different groups in Europe. Simulated trace gas fields were interpolated to the exact times and positions of the observations to account for the actual weather conditions and hence for the specific histories of the sampled air masses. In this part of the study we focus on a detailed comparison with two selected campaigns, PEM-Tropics A and SONEX, contrasting the clean environment of the tropical Pacific with the more polluted North Atlantic region. The study highlights the different strengths and weaknesses of the models in accurately simulating key processes in the UT/LS region including stratosphere-troposphere-exchange, rapid convective transport, lightning emissions, radical chemistry and ozone production. Model simulated Radon, which was used as an idealized tracer for continental influence, was occasionally much better correlated with measured CO than simulated CO pointing towards deficiencies in the used biomass burning emission fields. The abundance and variability of HOx radicals is in general well represented in the models as inferred directly from the comparison with measured OH and HO2 and indirectly from the comparison with hydrogen peroxide concentrations. Components of the NOy family such as PAN, HNO3 and NO were found to compare less favorably. Interestingly, models showing good agreement with observations in the case of PEM-Tropics A often failed in the case of SONEX and vice versa. A better description of NOx and NOy emissions, chemistry and sinks is thought to be key to future model improvements with respect to the representation of chemistry in the UT/LS region