The overconfidence problem in insurance markets

Adverse selection has long been recognized as a rationale for government intervention in in- surance markets and for the adoption of public compulsory insurance. A different rationale for compulsory insurance is that overconfident individuals may underinsure because they underes- timate the relevant risks. We show that government intervention is not a Pareto improvement in an adverse selection model with a significant fraction of overcon�dent agents. We underline that behavioral biases need not be the basis for government intervention. In fact, behavioral biases may overturn existing compelling reasons for intervention in the economy. Our model also delivers novel positive implications on aggregate variables that have been at the center of recent empirical investigation

Mediation, arbitration and negotiation

We compare three common dispute resolution processes { negotiation, mediation, and arbitration { in the framework of Crawford and Sobel (1982). Under negotiation, the two parties engage in (possibly arbitrarily long) face-to-face cheap talk. Under mediation, the parties communicate with a neutral third party who makes a non-binding recommendation. Under arbitration, the two parties commit to conform to the third party recommendation. We characterize and compare the optimal mediation and arbitration procedures. Both mediators and arbitrators should optimally filter information, but mediators should also add noise to it. We find that unmediated negotiation performs as well as mediation if and only if the degree of conflict between the parties is low

A pediatric case of Miller Fisher syndrome with central involvement.

no abstract availabl

West Nile virus transmission. results from the integrated surveillance system in Italy, 2008 to 2015

IIn Italy a national Plan for the surveillance of imported and autochthonous human vector-borne diseases (chikungunya, dengue, Zika virus disease and West Nile virus (WNV) disease) that integrates human and veterinary (animals and vectors) surveillance, is issued and revised annually according with the observed epidemiological changes. Here we describe results of the WNV integrated veterinary and human surveillance systems in Italy from 2008 to 2015. A real time data exchange protocol is in place between the surveillance systems to rapidly identify occurrence of human and animal cases and to define and update the map of affected areas i.e. provinces during the vector activity period from June to October. WNV continues to cause severe illnesses in Italy during every transmission season, albeit cases are sporadic and the epidemiology varies by virus lineage and geographic area. The integration of surveillance activities and a multidisciplinary approach made it possible and have been fundamental in supporting implementation of and/or strengthening preventive measures aimed at reducing the risk of transmission of WNV trough blood, tissues and organ donation and to implementing further measures for vector control

Guillain-Barré syndrome and COVID-19: an observational multicentre study from two Italian hotspot regions

Objective: Single cases and small series of Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) have been reported during the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak worldwide. We evaluated incidence and clinical features of GBS in a cohort of patients from two regions of northern Italy with the highest number of patients with COVID-19. Methods: GBS cases diagnosed in 12 referral hospitals from Lombardy and Veneto in March and April 2020 were retrospectively collected. As a control population, GBS diagnosed in March and April 2019 in the same hospitals were considered. Results: Incidence of GBS in March and April 2020 was 0.202/100 000/month (estimated rate 2.43/100 000/year) vs 0.077/100 000/month (estimated rate 0.93/100 000/year) in the same months of 2019 with a 2.6-fold increase. Estimated incidence of GBS in COVID-19-positive patients was 47.9/100 000 and in the COVID-19-positive hospitalised patients was 236/100 000. COVID-19-positive patients with GBS, when compared with COVID-19-negative subjects, showed lower MRC sum score (26.3±18.3 vs 41.4±14.8, p=0.006), higher frequency of demyelinating subtype (76.6% vs 35.3%, p=0.011), more frequent low blood pressure (50% vs 11.8%, p=0.017) and higher rate of admission to intensive care unit (66.6% vs 17.6%, p=0.002). Conclusions: This study shows an increased incidence of GBS during the COVID-19 outbreak in northern Italy, supporting a pathogenic link. COVID-19-associated GBS is predominantly demyelinating and seems to be more severe than non-COVID-19 GBS, although it is likely that in some patients the systemic impairment due to COVID-19 might have contributed to the severity of the whole clinical picture

Clinical features and outcomes of elderly hospitalised patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, heart failure or both

Background and objective: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and heart failure (HF) mutually increase the risk of being present in the same patient, especially if older. Whether or not this coexistence may be associated with a worse prognosis is debated. Therefore, employing data derived from the REPOSI register, we evaluated the clinical features and outcomes in a population of elderly patients admitted to internal medicine wards and having COPD, HF or COPD + HF. Methods: We measured socio-demographic and anthropometric characteristics, severity and prevalence of comorbidities, clinical and laboratory features during hospitalization, mood disorders, functional independence, drug prescriptions and discharge destination. The primary study outcome was the risk of death. Results: We considered 2,343 elderly hospitalized patients (median age 81 years), of whom 1,154 (49%) had COPD, 813 (35%) HF, and 376 (16%) COPD + HF. Patients with COPD + HF had different characteristics than those with COPD or HF, such as a higher prevalence of previous hospitalizations, comorbidities (especially chronic kidney disease), higher respiratory rate at admission and number of prescribed drugs. Patients with COPD + HF (hazard ratio HR 1.74, 95% confidence intervals CI 1.16-2.61) and patients with dementia (HR 1.75, 95% CI 1.06-2.90) had a higher risk of death at one year. The Kaplan-Meier curves showed a higher mortality risk in the group of patients with COPD + HF for all causes (p = 0.010), respiratory causes (p = 0.006), cardiovascular causes (p = 0.046) and respiratory plus cardiovascular causes (p = 0.009). Conclusion: In this real-life cohort of hospitalized elderly patients, the coexistence of COPD and HF significantly worsened prognosis at one year. This finding may help to better define the care needs of this population

Demographic and clinical determinants of neck pain in idiopathic cervical dystonia.

Cervical dystonia is associated with neck pain in a significant proportion of cases, but the mechanisms underlying pain are largely unknown. In this exploratory study, we compared demographic and clinical variables in cervical dystonia patients with and without neck pain from the Italian Dystonia Registry. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analysis indicated a higher frequency of sensory trick and a lower educational level among patients with pain