The Regressivity of a Tax on Consumer Interest Exceeding Fifteen Percent

This note estimates the tax incidence of a proposed thirty percent surtax on consumer interest in excess of fifteen percent annually using data from the 2007 Survey of Consumer Finance. The burden of this tax falls on the 11.8% of households with unpaid balances on credit cards with interest rates over fifteen percent. The tax is highly regressive with a Suits Index of -0.40

The Effects of Lottery Promotions, Credit Constraints, and the Stock Market on Daily New Jersey Lottery Sales

This paper estimates the price elasticity of demand for daily Pick 3 and Pick 4 lottery games using random price variation generated by the New Jersey Lottery’s evening Pick 3 Green Ball promotion and Pick 4 Red Ball promotion. These promotions lower the price of a lottery ticket for an evening daily numbers game by increasing prize payments during the promotion period. The own-price elasticity of demand for evening Pick 3 is -0.50, while the own-price elasticity of demand for evening Pick 4 is -0.57. This inelastic demand implies that the loss in margin outweighs the gain in sales during the promotion for the promoted lottery game. Midday Pick 3 and Pick 4 lottery sales increase because of the price promotions for their evening counterparts. The lottery promotions also moderately increase midday daily game sales and Pick 3 and Pick 4 sales temporarily after the promotions end. Our findings that sales are significantly higher on Fridays and at the start of a month are consistent with daily lottery players facing credit constraints

The Responsiveness of Casino Revenue to the Casino Tax Rate

This paper uses variation in Illinois casino taxes to estimate the elasticity of casino adjusted gross receipts (AGR) with respect to the marginal casino tax rate. Illinois’ shift to a graduated rate schedule initiated increases in the highest marginal tax rate on AGR from 20% to 70% with reversion to a 50% rate. We construct a state-level casino tax rate variable based on the effective marginal rates on AGR at individual casinos, imputing the tax on casino admissions as a proportion of adjusted gross receipts. We find that a 1% increase in this casino tax rate decreases AGR by 0.2%

The Effect of New Jersey Lottery Promotions on Consumer Demand and State Profits

We estimate elasticities of demand for New Jersey’s Pick 3 and Pick 4 midday/evening numbers games by exploiting random price variation generated by episodic promotions for each game. These Pick 3 Green Ball and Pick 4 Red Ball promotions lower the price of a lottery ticket for an evening numbers game by increasing prize payments during the 28-day promotion periods. The own-price elasticity of demand for the evening Pick 3 and Pick 4 games are both approximately -0.5. During the promotions, the loss in margin outweighs the gain in sales because of this inelastic demand. However, Green Ball promotions increase state profits by about $14.5 million because of the increase in sales of Pick 3/Pick 4 games and instant games after the promotion ends, and because of the complementarity of Pick 3 with Pick 4 and instant games during the promotion. Red Ball promotions reduce state profits by an estimated$2.6 million because increased evening Pick 4 sales after the promotion ends are not sufficient to offset the losses during the promotion, and the Pick 4 promotion has a net negative effect on other lottery games. (JEL D12, H71, L83, L98

Specification of progression in glaucomatous visual field loss, applying locally condensed stimulus arrangements

The goal of this work was to (i) determine patterns of progression in glaucomatous visual field loss, (ii) compare the detection rate of progression between locally condensed stimulus arrangements and conventional 6° × 6° grid, and (iii) assess the individual frequency distribution of test locations exhibiting a local event (i.e., an abrupt local deterioration of differential luminance sensitivity (DLS) by more than -10dB between any two examinations). The visual function of 41 glaucomatous eyes of 41 patients (16 females, 25 males, 37 to 75 years old) was examined with automated static perimetry (Tuebingen Computer Campimeter or Octopus 101-Perimeter). Stimuli were added to locally enhance the spatial resolution in suspicious regions of the visual field. The minimum follow-up was four subsequent sessions with a minimum of 2-month (median 6-month) intervals between each session. Progression was identified using a modified pointwise linear regression (PLR) method and a modified Katz criterion. The presence of events was assessed in all progressive visual fields. Eleven eyes (27%) showed progression over the study period (median 2.5 years, range 1.3–8.6 years). Six (55%) of these had combined progression in depth and size and five eyes (45%) progressed in depth only. Progression in size conformed always to the nerve fiber course. Seven out of 11 (64%) of the progressive scotomata detected by spatially condensed grids would have been missed by the conventional 6° × 6° grid. At least one event occurred in 64% of all progressive eyes. Five of 11 (46%) progressive eyes showed a cluster of events. The most common pattern of progression in glaucomatous visual fields is combined progression in depth and size of an existing scotoma. Applying individually condensed test grids remarkably enhances the detection rate of glaucomatous visual field deterioration (at the expense of an increased examination time) compared to conventional stimulus arrangements

Targeting DNA Damage Response and Replication Stress in Pancreatic Cancer

Background and aims: Continuing recalcitrance to therapy cements pancreatic cancer (PC) as the most lethal malignancy, which is set to become the second leading cause of cancer death in our society. The study aim was to investigate the association between DNA damage response (DDR), replication stress and novel therapeutic response in PC to develop a biomarker driven therapeutic strategy targeting DDR and replication stress in PC. Methods: We interrogated the transcriptome, genome, proteome and functional characteristics of 61 novel PC patient-derived cell lines to define novel therapeutic strategies targeting DDR and replication stress. Validation was done in patient derived xenografts and human PC organoids. Results: Patient-derived cell lines faithfully recapitulate the epithelial component of pancreatic tumors including previously described molecular subtypes. Biomarkers of DDR deficiency, including a novel signature of homologous recombination deficiency, co-segregates with response to platinum (P < 0.001) and PARP inhibitor therapy (P < 0.001) in vitro and in vivo. We generated a novel signature of replication stress with which predicts response to ATR (P < 0.018) and WEE1 inhibitor (P < 0.029) treatment in both cell lines and human PC organoids. Replication stress was enriched in the squamous subtype of PC (P < 0.001) but not associated with DDR deficiency. Conclusions: Replication stress and DDR deficiency are independent of each other, creating opportunities for therapy in DDR proficient PC, and post-platinum therapy

Canagliflozin and renal outcomes in type 2 diabetes and nephropathy

BACKGROUND Type 2 diabetes mellitus is the leading cause of kidney failure worldwide, but few effective long-term treatments are available. In cardiovascular trials of inhibitors of sodium–glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2), exploratory results have suggested that such drugs may improve renal outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes. METHODS In this double-blind, randomized trial, we assigned patients with type 2 diabetes and albuminuric chronic kidney disease to receive canagliflozin, an oral SGLT2 inhibitor, at a dose of 100 mg daily or placebo. All the patients had an estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) of 30 to <90 ml per minute per 1.73 m2 of body-surface area and albuminuria (ratio of albumin [mg] to creatinine [g], >300 to 5000) and were treated with renin–angiotensin system blockade. The primary outcome was a composite of end-stage kidney disease (dialysis, transplantation, or a sustained estimated GFR of <15 ml per minute per 1.73 m2), a doubling of the serum creatinine level, or death from renal or cardiovascular causes. Prespecified secondary outcomes were tested hierarchically. RESULTS The trial was stopped early after a planned interim analysis on the recommendation of the data and safety monitoring committee. At that time, 4401 patients had undergone randomization, with a median follow-up of 2.62 years. The relative risk of the primary outcome was 30% lower in the canagliflozin group than in the placebo group, with event rates of 43.2 and 61.2 per 1000 patient-years, respectively (hazard ratio, 0.70; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.59 to 0.82; P=0.00001). The relative risk of the renal-specific composite of end-stage kidney disease, a doubling of the creatinine level, or death from renal causes was lower by 34% (hazard ratio, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.53 to 0.81; P<0.001), and the relative risk of end-stage kidney disease was lower by 32% (hazard ratio, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.54 to 0.86; P=0.002). The canagliflozin group also had a lower risk of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke (hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.67 to 0.95; P=0.01) and hospitalization for heart failure (hazard ratio, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.47 to 0.80; P<0.001). There were no significant differences in rates of amputation or fracture. CONCLUSIONS In patients with type 2 diabetes and kidney disease, the risk of kidney failure and cardiovascular events was lower in the canagliflozin group than in the placebo group at a median follow-up of 2.62 years

Who Plays the Numbers Games in the Middle of the Day

We analyse the increase in sales of Pick 3 and Pick 4 daily numbers lottery games and other Ohio Lottery games after Ohio introduced midday drawings for the Pick 3 and Pick 4 games in August 1999. The midday drawings increased Pick 3 sales by 5%, Pick 4 sales by 12%, and total lottery sales by 2% based on our analysis of a 36-month panel dataset of Ohio lottery sales by zip code. Midday drawings raise more revenue from the strongly regressive daily numbers games. However, the introduction of midday drawings does not change the negative income elasticities of demand for numbers games in an economically meaningful manner

Who Plays the Numbers Games in the Middle of the Day?

We analyze the increase in sales of daily numbers lottery games – Pick 3 and Pick 4 games – after Ohio introduced midday drawings in August 1999. Using a 36 month panel data set of Ohio lottery sales by zip code we find that midday drawings increased Pick 3 sales by 12.1% per adult and increased Pick 4 sales by 16.6% per adult. The increase in both Pick 3 and Pick 4 sales after midday drawings began was greater in zip codes with a greater percentage of households receiving public assistance and zip codes with a higher percentage of black residents. The Pick 3 Red Ball promotions during this period, which increased the payouts to winning Pick 3 tickets, were successful in raising Ohio Lottery sales and profits. Pick 3 sales per adult would have declined 15.4% and Pick 4 sales per adult would have dropped 2.4% between 1998 and 2000 without any marketing innovations by the Ohio Lottery. This trend of falling lottery sales over time was more severe in areas near casinos, many of which opened in the mid 1990s.

Assessing the Impact of Monopoly Toll Road Service Areas

The higher prices on the Garden State Parkway, the Atlantic City Expressway, and the New Jersey Turnpike found in this study demonstrate that consumers face increased prices when there is a government-created monopoly for service providers at rest areas instead of vigorous competition. Prices for gasoline are higher at service areas along the Garden State Parkway and the Atlantic City Expressway. Food prices are dramatically higher at service areas along the Garden State Parkway, the Atlantic City Expressway, and the New Jersey Turnpike. Consumers are clearly worse off when they are paying these marked-up food and gasoline prices on New Jersey's toll roads. As this research has demonstrated, consumer welfare along the GSP and NJT is annually reduced by $5,475,027 because of higher gasoline prices and$26,227,925 because of higher food prices. While these findings focus on the price and quantities of goods sold at monopoly service areas, economic theory also suggests that the quality of customer service may be reduced when competition is absent.Roads; Tolls