A comparison of isoprene nitrate concentrations at two forest‐impacted sites

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/94913/1/jgrd10897.pd

Evaluating the contribution of changes in isoprene emissions to surface ozone trends over the eastern United States

Reducing surface ozone (O3) to concentrations in compliance with the national air quality standard has proven to be challenging, despite tighter controls on O3 precursor emissions over the past few decades. New evidence indicates that isoprene emissions changed considerably from the mid-1980s to the mid-1990s owing to land-use changes in the eastern United States (Purves et al., 2004). Over this period, U.S. anthropogenic VOC (AVOC) emissions decreased substantially. Here we apply two chemical transport models (GEOS-CHEM and MOZART-2) to test the hypothesis, put forth by Purves et al. (2004), that the absence of decreasing O3 trends over much of the eastern United States may reflect a balance between increases in isoprene emissions and decreases in AVOC emissions. We find little evidence for this hypothesis; over most of the domain, mean July afternoon (1300–1700 local time) surface O3 is more responsive (ranging from −9 to +7 ppbv) to the reported changes in anthropogenic NOx emissions than to the concurrent isoprene (−2 to +2 ppbv) or AVOC (−2 to 0 ppbv) emission changes. The estimated magnitude of the O3 response to anthropogenic NOx emission changes, however, depends on the base isoprene emission inventory used in the model. The combined effect of the reported changes in eastern U.S. anthropogenic plus biogenic emissions is insufficient to explain observed changes in mean July afternoon surface O3 concentrations, suggesting a possible role for decadal changes in meteorology, hemispheric background O3, or subgrid-scale chemistry. We demonstrate that two major uncertainties, the base isoprene emission inventory and the fate of isoprene nitrates (which influence surface O3 in the model by −15 to +4 and +4 to +12 ppbv, respectively), preclude a well-constrained quantification of the present-day contribution of biogenic or anthropogenic emissions to surface O3 concentrations, particularly in the high-isoprene-emitting southeastern United States. Better constraints on isoprene emissions and chemistry are needed to quantitatively address the role of isoprene in eastern U.S. air quality

Contribution of isoprene to chemical budgets:A model tracer study with the NCAR CTM MOZART-4

We present a study of the sensitivity of isoprene emission calculations in a global chemistry transport model (CTM) to input land cover characteristics and analyze the impacts of changes in isoprene on the tropospheric budgets of atmospheric key species. The CTM Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Species, version 4 (MOZART-4) includes the online calculation of isoprene emissions based on the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN), which is driven by three different land parameter inputs. We also included a tagging scheme in the CTM, which keeps track of the production of carbon containing species from isoprene oxidation. It is found that the amount of tropospheric carbon monoxide (CO), formaldehyde (HCHO) and peroxyacetylnitrate (PAN) explained by isoprene oxidation ranges from 9-16%, 15-27%, and 22-32%, depending on the isoprene emissions scenario. Changes in the global tropospheric burden with different land cover inputs can reach up to 10% for CO, 15% for HCHO, and 20% for PAN. Changes for ozone are small on a global scale, but regionally differences are as large as 3DU in the tropospheric column and as large as 5 ppbv in the surface concentrations. Our results demonstrate that a careful integration of isoprene emissions and chemistry in CTMs is very important for simulating the budgets of a number of atmospheric trace gases. We further demonstrate that the model tagging scheme has the capability of improving conventional methods of constraining isoprene emissions from space-borne HCHO column observations, especially in regions where a considerable part of the variability in the HCHO column is not related to isoprene. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union

Characterizing the tropospheric ozone response to methane emission controls and the benefits to climate and air quality

Reducing methane (CH4) emissions is an attractive option for jointly addressing climate and ozone (O3) air quality goals. With multidecadal full-chemistry transient simulations in the MOZART-2 tropospheric chemistry model, we show that tropospheric O3 responds approximately linearly to changes in CH4 emissions over a range of anthropogenic emissions from 0–430 Tg CH4 a−1 (0.11–0.16 Tg tropospheric O3 or ∼11–15 ppt global mean surface O3 decrease per Tg a−1 CH4 reduced). We find that neither the air quality nor climate benefits depend strongly on the location of the CH4 emission reductions, implying that the lowest cost emission controls can be targeted. With a series of future (2005–2030) transient simulations, we demonstrate that cost-effective CH4 controls would offset the positive climate forcing from CH4 and O3 that would otherwise occur (from increases in NOx and CH4 emissions in the baseline scenario) and improve O3 air quality. We estimate that anthropogenic CH4 contributes 0.7 Wm−2 to climate forcing and ∼4 ppb to surface O3 in 2030 under the baseline scenario. Although the response of surface O3 to CH4 is relatively uniform spatially compared to that from other O3 precursors, it is strongest in regions where surface air mixes frequently with the free troposphere and where the local O3 formation regime is NOx-saturated. In the model, CH4 oxidation within the boundary layer (below ∼2.5 km) contributes more to surface O3 than CH4 oxidation in the free troposphere. In NOx-saturated regions, the surface O3 sensitivity to CH4 can be twice that of the global mean, with >70% of this sensitivity resulting from boundary layer oxidation of CH4. Accurately representing the NOx distribution is thus crucial for quantifying the O3 sensitivity to CH4