Estimating the upper limit of prehistoric peak ground acceleration using an in situ, intact and vulnerable stalagmite from Plavecka priepast cave (Detrekoi-zsomboly), Little Carpathians, Slovakia-first results

Earthquakes hit urban centres in Europe infrequently, but occasionally with disastrous effects. Obtaining an unbiased view of seismic hazard (and risk) is therefore very important. In principle, the best way to test probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHAs) is to compare them with observations that are entirely independent of the procedure used to produce PSHA models. Arguably, the most valuable information in this context should be information on long-term hazard, namely maximum intensities (or magnitudes) occurring over time intervals that are at least as long as a seismic cycle. The new observations can provide information of maximum intensity (or magnitude) for long timescale as an input data for PSHA studies as well. Long-term information can be gained from intact stalagmites in natural caves. These formations survived all earthquakes that have occurred over thousands of years, depending on the age of the stalagmite. Their 'survival' requires that the horizontal ground acceleration (HGA) has never exceeded a certain critical value within that time period. Here, we present such a stalagmite-based case study from the Little Carpathians of Slovakia. A specially shaped, intact and vulnerable stalagmite in the Plavecka priepast cave was examined in 2013. This stalagmite is suitable for estimating the upper limit of horizontal peak ground acceleration generated by prehistoric earthquakes. The critical HGA values as a function of time going back into the past determined from the stalagmite that we investigated are presented. For example, at the time of Joko event (1906), the critical HGA value cannot have been higher than 1 and 1.3 m/s(2) at the time of the assumed Carnuntum event (similar to 340 AD), and 3000 years ago, it must have been lower than 1.7 m/s(2). We claimed that the effect of Joko earthquake (1906) on the location of the Plavecka priepast cave is consistent with the critical HGA value provided by the stalagmite we investigated. The approach used in this study yields significant new constraints on the seismic hazard, as tectonic structures close to Plavecka priepast cave did not generate strong earthquakes in the last few thousand years. The results of this study are highly relevant given that the two capitals, Vienna and Bratislava, are located within 40 and 70 km of the cave, respectively.Web of Science2151130111

Seeking cyclonic activity records in speleothems from central Pacific: preliminary sample screening

PosterInternational audienceIdeal cyclone-sensitive speleothems would have the following properties: active at the time of sampling and recording the past few millenia, with fast growth rate, made of clean primary calcite, precipitated without kinetic fractionation, and fed by water with a short residence time allowing for the isotopic signal of short events like cyclones to be transferred but long enough for the drip water to be supersaturated. The screening for this type of speleothem is still in progress and the results presented here are very preliminary. U-Th dating: low U concentration (9-40ng/g; host rock is reef limestone) ; significant detrital content, involving large corrections and large final age uncertainties. Growth rate is highly variable, from ~0.12 mm/yr to ~0.03mm/yr. Tau12A: δ 18 O profile shows some quite large variations (~3‰), with several abrupt events that we will try to identify in other archives. δ 13 C signal amplitude is very large (~-4 to ~-14‰) suggesting the effect of prior calcite precipitation. The δ 18 O signal gets heavier when the δ 13 C does, which could reflect the rainfall amount in this context. Var12C: δ 18 O profile shows values between-3.1 and-6.3‰, with decadal or centennial fluctuations, superimposed on a general trend which is consistent with the one of the δ 13 C profile without being correlated, which implies that calcite precipitation could occur in conditions close to isotopic equilibrium. Once properly dated, this record should provide interesting information about past rainfall regimes on the island

Speleothem record of mild and wet mid-Pleistocene climate in northeast Greenland

The five interglacials before the Mid-Brunhes Event (MBE) [c.430 thousand years (ka) ago] are generally considered to be globally cooler than those post-MBE. Inhomogeneities exist regionally, however, which suggest that the Arctic was warmer than present during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 15a. Using the first speleothem record for the High Arctic, we investigate the climatic response of northeast Greenland between c.588 and c.549 ka ago. Our results indicate an enhanced warmth of at least +3.5 degrees C relative to the present, leading to permafrost thaw and increased precipitation. We find that delta O-18 of precipitation was at least 3 parts per thousand higher than today and recognize two local cooling events (c.571 and c.594 ka ago) thought to be caused by freshwater forcing. Our results are important for improving understanding of the regional climatic response leading up to the MBE and specifically provide insights into the climatic response of a warmer Arctic

Climate and structure of the 8.2 ka event reconstructed from three speleothems from Germany

The most pronounced climate anomaly of the Holocene was the 8.2 ka cooling event. We present new 230Th/U-ages as well as high-resolution stable isotope and trace element data from three stalagmitesfrom two different cave systems in Germany, which provide important information about the structure and climate variability of the 8.2 ka event in central Europe. In all three speleothems, the 8.2 ka event is clearly recorded as a pronounced negative excursion of the {\delta}18O values and can be divided into a 'whole event' and a 'central event'. All stalagmites show a similar structure of the event with a short negative excursion prior to the 'central event', which marks the beginning of the 'whole event'. The timing and duration of the 8.2.ka event are different for the individual records, which may, however, be related to dating uncertainties. Whereas stalagmite Bu4 from Bunker Cave also shows a negative anomaly in the {\delta}13C values and Mg content during the event, the two speleothems from the Herbstlabyrinth cave system do not show distinct peaks in the other proxies. This may suggest that the speleothem {\delta}18O values recorded in the three stalagmites do not primarily reflect climate change at the cave site, but rather large-scale changes in the North Atlantic. This is supported by comparison with climate modelling data, which suggest that the negative peak in the speleothem {\delta}18O values is mainly due to lower {\delta}18O values of precipitation above the cave and that temperature only played a minor role. Alternatively, the other proxies may not be as sensitive as {\delta}18O values to record this centennial-scale cooling event. This may particularly be the case for speleothem {\delta}13C values as suggested by comparison with a climate modelling study simulating vegetation changes in Europe during the 8.2 ka event. ..

Bunker Cave stalagmites: an archive for central European Holocene climate variability

Holocene climate was characterised by variability on multi-centennial to multi-decadal time scales. In central Europe, these fluctuations were most pronounced during winter. Here we present a record of past winter climate variability for the last 10.8 ka based on four speleothems from Bunker Cave, western Germany. Due to its central European location, the cave site is particularly well suited to record changes in precipitation and temperature in response to changes in the North Atlantic realm. We present high-resolution records of δ18O, δ13C values and Mg/Ca ratios. Changes in the Mg/Ca ratio are attributed to past meteoric precipitation variability. The stable C isotope composition of the speleothems most likely reflects changes in vegetation and precipitation, and variations in the δ18O signal are interpreted as variations in meteoric precipitation and temperature. We found cold and dry periods between 8 and 7 ka, 6.5 and 5.5 ka, 4 and 3 ka as well as between 0.7 and 0.2 ka. The proxy signals in the Bunker Cave stalagmites compare well with other isotope records and, thus, seem representative for central European Holocene climate variability. The prominent 8.2 ka event and the Little Ice Age cold events are both recorded in the Bunker Cave record. However, these events show a contrasting relationship between climate and δ18O, which is explained by different causes underlying the two climate anomalies. Whereas the Little Ice Age is attributed to a pronounced negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, the 8.2 ka event was triggered by cooler conditions in the North Atlantic due to a slowdown of the thermohaline circulation

Climate Variability in Central Europe during the Last 2500 Years Reconstructed from Four High-Resolution Multi-Proxy Speleothem Records

The Late Holocene was characterized by several centennial-scale climate oscillations including the Roman Warm Period, the Dark Ages Cold Period, the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age. The detection and investigation of such climate anomalies requires paleoclimate archives with an accurate chronology as well as a high temporal resolution. Here, we present 230Th/U-dated high-resolution multi-proxy records (δ13C, δ18O and trace elements) for the last 2500 years of four speleothems from Bunker Cave and the Herbstlabyrinth cave system in Germany. The multi-proxy data of all four speleothems show evidence of two warm and two cold phases during the last 2500 years, which coincide with the Roman Warm Period and the Medieval Warm Period, as well as the Dark Ages Cold Period and the Little Ice Age, respectively. During these four cold and warm periods, the δ18O and δ13C records of all four speleothems and the Mg concentration of the speleothems Bu4 (Bunker Cave) and TV1 (Herbstlabyrinth cave system) show common features and are thus interpreted to be related to past climate variability. Comparison with other paleoclimate records suggests a strong influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation at the two caves sites, which is reflected by warm and humid conditions during the Roman Warm Period and the Medieval Warm Period, and cold and dry climate during the Dark Ages Cold period and the Little Ice Age. The Mg records of speleothems Bu1 (Bunker Cave) and NG01 (Herbstlabyrinth) as well as the inconsistent patterns of Sr, Ba and P suggests that the processes controlling the abundance of these trace elements are dominated by site-specific effects rather than being related to supra-regional climate variability

The magnesium isotope record of cave carbonate archives

Here we explore the potential of magnesium (δ<sup>26</sup>Mg) isotope time-series data as continental climate proxies in speleothem calcite archives. For this purpose, a total of six Pleistocene and Holocene stalagmites from caves in Germany, Morocco and Peru and two flowstones from a cave in Austria were investigated. These caves represent the semi-arid to arid (Morocco), the warm-temperate (Germany), the equatorial-humid (Peru) and the cold-humid (Austria) climate zones. Changes in the calcite magnesium isotope signature with time are compared against carbon and oxygen isotope records from these speleothems. Similar to other proxies, the non-trivial interaction of a number of environmental, equilibrium and disequilibrium processes governs the δ<sup>26</sup>Mg fractionation in continental settings. These include the different sources of magnesium isotopes such as rainwater or snow as well as soil and host rock, soil zone biogenic activity, shifts in silicate versus carbonate weathering ratios and residence time of water in the soil and karst zone. Pleistocene stalagmites from Morocco show the lowest mean δ<sup>26</sup>Mg values (GDA: −4.26 ± 0.07‰ and HK3: −4.17 ± 0.15‰), and the data are well explained in terms of changes in aridity over time. The Pleistocene to Holocene stalagmites from Peru show the highest mean value of all stalagmites (NC-A and NC-B δ<sup>26</sup>Mg: −3.96 ± 0.04‰) but only minor variations in Mg-isotope composition, which is consistent with the rather stable equatorial climate at this site. Holocene stalagmites from Germany (AH-1 mean δ<sup>26</sup>Mg: −4.01 ± 0.07‰; BU 4 mean δ<sup>26</sup>Mg: −4.20 ± 0.10‰) suggest changes in outside air temperature was the principal driver rather than rainfall amount. The alpine Pleistocene flowstones from Austria (SPA 52: −3.00 ± 0.73‰; SPA 59: −3.70 ± 0.43‰) are affected by glacial versus interglacial climate change with outside air temperature affecting soil zone activity and weathering balance. Several δ<sup>26</sup>Mg values of the Austrian and two δ<sup>26</sup>Mg values of the German speleothems are shifted to higher values due to sampling in detrital layers (Mg-bearing clay minerals) of the speleothems. The data and their interpretation shown here highlight the potential but also the limitations of the magnesium isotope proxy applied in continental climate research. An obvious potential lies in its sensitivity for even subtle changes in soil-zone parameters, a hitherto rather poorly understood but extremely important component in cave archive research. Limitations are most obvious in the low resolution and high sample amount needed for analysis. Future research should focus on experimental and conceptual aspects including quantitative and well-calibrated leaching and precipitation experiments

Persistent influence of obliquity on ice age terminations since the Middle Pleistocene transition.

Radiometric dating of glacial terminations over the past 640,000 years suggests pacing by Earth's climatic precession, with each glacial-interglacial period spanning four or five cycles of ~20,000 years. However, the lack of firm age estimates for older Pleistocene terminations confounds attempts to test the persistence of precession forcing. We combine an Italian speleothem record anchored by a uranium-lead chronology with North Atlantic ocean data to show that the first two deglaciations of the so-called 100,000-year world are separated by two obliquity cycles, with each termination starting at the same high phase of obliquity, but at opposing phases of precession. An assessment of 11 radiometrically dated terminations spanning the past million years suggests that obliquity exerted a persistent influence on not only their initiation but also their duration

Isotope hydrology of dripwaters in a Scottish cave and implications for stalagmite palaeoclimate research

Dripwater hydrology and hydrogeochemistry is particularly useful in constraining the meaning of speleothem palaeoclimate archives, for example using δ<sup>18</sup>O signatures. Here, we calibrate the relationship between δ<sup>18</sup>O in precipitation, percolation waters and contemporary calcite deposits, at Tartair cave, Sutherland, NW Scotland, an Atlantic site sensitive to regional changes both of temperature and precipitation. Monthly precipitation displayed a 7.1‰ range in δ<sup>18</sup>O, a negative linear relationship with rainfall amount, and no correlation with temperature. Autogenically-derived cave percolation waters show little variation in δ<sup>18</sup>O during the same period and their annual weighted mean is the same as that of the local precipitation. This evidence together with hydrological data and electroconductivity values indicates that percolation waters are well mixed and dominated by stored water. Calculated values of δ<sup>18</sup>O of calcite deposited in this cave environment indicate that the cave deposits are forming close to isotopic equilibrium and kinetic effects are negligible. Comparison of a high-resolution δ<sup>18</sup>O stalagmite record with the instrumental record of climate indicates that isotopically heavy values are reflective of relatively cold, dry conditions (and vice-versa for warm, wet condition) and hence that stalagmite oxygen isotopes provide an appropriate means of investigating the palaeoclimate in this location