Participatory modeling updates expectations for individuals and groups, catalyzing behavior change and collective action in water-energy-food nexus governance

Participatory modeling is a potentially high-impact approach for catalyzing fundamental sustainability transformations. We test if participation in a group system dynamics modeling exercise increases participants' agency through a novel method to evaluate potential behavioral change using expectations measures. A water-energy-food nexus a functionally interdependent but under-conceptualised system with low consensus and high scientific uncertainty -- was mapped and its evolution simulated by 46 participants in three interventions in a region undergoing hydropower infrastructure development in North-eastern Cambodia. Participants' system-related expectations were measured before and after the interventions. Our results suggest that participants became significantly more optimistic about their individual agency to increase agricultural and fishing income, and interestingly, less likely to participate in local government development planning procedures. Findings also reveal how some uncertainties for multiple variables were reduced within and across the groups. Such converging expectations suggest that participatory modelling could contribute to making collective solutions and institutionalised agreements more likely. This research contributes to innovation in sustainability because it unpacks some underlying mechanics of how participatory processes can lead to new adaptive capacities, shared perspectives and collective actions

Mapping the economic value of landslide regulation by forests

The role of forests in regulating landslide risks is well established but estimates of the economic value of this ecosystem service are limited. In order to incorporate the role of forests for landslide risk mitigation in spatial planning and other decision-making contexts, there is a need for spatially explicit information regarding the value of this service. We develop a methodological framework to combine bio-physical modelling of natural hazard risk and socio-economic exposure in a predictive model to estimate and map of the economic value of forest regulation of landslides. This method is applied in a case study of Adjara Autonomous Republic of Georgia to examine alternative scenarios for forest management and associated land cover change. The approach produces credible spatially explicit results to inform policy decisions regarding investment in forest management; and has the potential for replication in other data scarce regions

Dual in-aquifer and near surface processes drive arsenic mobilization in Cambodian groundwaters

Millions of people globally, and particularly in South and Southeast Asia, face chronic exposure to arsenic from reducing groundwater in which arsenic release is widely attributed to the reductive dissolution of arsenic-bearing iron minerals, driven by metal reducing bacteria using bioavailable organic matter as an electron donor. However, the nature of the organic matter implicated in arsenic mobilization, and the location within the subsurface where these processes occur, remains debated. In a high resolution study of a largely pristine, shallow aquifer in Kandal Province, Cambodia, we have used a complementary suite of geochemical tracers (including 14C, 3H, 3He, 4He, Ne, δ18O, δD, CFCs and SF6) to study the evolution in arsenic-prone shallow reducing groundwaters along dominant flow paths. The observation of widespread apparent 3H-3He ages of 30 m, and the relationships between age-related tracers and arsenic suggest that this surface-derived organic matter is likely to contribute to in-aquifer arsenic mobilization. A strong relationship between 3H-3He age and depth suggests the dominance of a vertical hydrological control with an overall vertical flow velocity of ~0.4 ± 0.1 m·yr−1 across the field area. A calculated overall groundwater arsenic accumulation rate of ~0.08 ± 0.03 μM·yr−1 is broadly comparable to previous estimates from other researchers for similar reducing aquifers in Bangladesh. Although apparent arsenic groundwater accumulation rates varied significantly with site (e.g. between sand versus clay dominated sequences), rates are generally highest near the surface, perhaps reflecting the proximity to the redox cline and/or depth-dependent characteristics of the OM pool, and confounded by localized processes such as continued in-aquifer mobilization, sorption/desorption, and methanogenesis

History of malaria treatment as a predictor of subsequent subclinical parasitaemia: A cross-sectional survey and malaria case records from three villages in Pailin, western Cambodia

Background: Treatment of the sub-clinical reservoir of malaria, which may maintain transmission, could be an important component of elimination strategies. The reliable detection of asymptomatic infections with low levels of parasitaemia requires high-volume quantitative polymerase chain reaction (uPCR), which is impractical to conduct on a large scale. It is unknown to what extent sub-clinical parasitaemias originate from recent or older clinical episodes. This study explored the association between clinical history of malaria and subsequent sub-clinical parasitaemia. Methods: In June 2013 a cross-sectional survey was conducted in three villages in Pailin, western Cambodia. Demographic and epidemiological data and blood samples were collected. Blood was tested for malaria by high-volume qP

Biomarker-indicated extent of oxidation of plant-derived organic carbon (OC) in relation to geomorphology in an arsenic contaminated Holocene aquifer, Cambodia

The poisoning of rural populations in South and Southeast Asia due to high groundwater arsenic concentrations is one of the world’s largest ongoing natural disasters. It is important to consider environmental processes related to the release of geogenic arsenic, including geomorphological and organic geochemical processes. Arsenic is released from sediments when iron-oxide minerals, onto which arsenic is adsorbed or incorporated, react with organic carbon (OC) and the OC is oxidised. In this study we build a new geomorphological framework for Kandal Province, a highly studied arsenic affected region of Cambodia, and tie this into wider regional environmental change throughout the Holocene. Analyses shows that the concentration of OC in the sediments is strongly inversely correlated to grainsize. Furthermore, the type of OC is also related to grain size with the clay containing mostly (immature) plant derived OC and sand containing mostly thermally mature derived OC. Finally, analyses indicate that within the plant derived OC relative oxidation is strongly grouped by stratigraphy with the older bound OC more oxidised than younger OC

Influenza activity in Cambodia during 2006-2008

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>There is little information about influenza disease among the Cambodian population. To better understand the dynamics of influenza in Cambodia, the Cambodian National Influenza Center (NIC) was established in August 2006. To continuously monitor influenza activity, a hospital based sentinel surveillance system for ILI (influenza like illness) with a weekly reporting and sampling scheme was established in five sites in 2006. In addition, hospital based surveillance of acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) cases was established in 2 sites.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The sentinel sites collect weekly epidemiological data on ILI patients fulfilling the case definition, and take naso-pharyngeal specimens from a defined number of cases per week. The samples are tested in the Virology Unit at the Institut Pasteur in Phnom Penh. From each sample viral RNA was extracted and amplified by a multiplex RT-PCR detecting simultaneously influenza A and influenza B virus. Influenza A viruses were then subtyped and analyzed by hemagglutination inhibition assay. Samples collected by the ALRI system were tested with the same approach.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>From 2006 to 2008, influenza circulation was observed mainly from June to December, with a clear seasonal peak in October shown in the data from 2008.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Influenza activity in Cambodia occurred during the rainy season, from June to December, and ended before the cool season (extending usually from December to February). Although Cambodia is a tropical country geographically located in the northern hemisphere, influenza activity has a southern hemisphere transmission pattern. Together with the antigenic analysis of the circulating strains, it is now possible to give better influenza vaccination recommendation for Cambodia.</p

Improved groundwater geogenic arsenic hazard map for Cambodia

Environmental context Groundwater arsenic is a major environmental risk to human health in many regions of the world, including Cambodia where groundwater is often used for drinking water. We present data for hitherto poorly sampled regions in Cambodia, notably around Tonle Sap and in the coastal provinces, and provide a geo-statistical model of arsenic in shallow groundwater for the whole country. Abstract Arsenic is a known environmental chemical hazard in shallow groundwaters of Cambodia and is increasingly recognised as a major problem for public health. Notwithstanding this, accurate arsenic data are not available for many wells in potentially arsenic-prone areas, particularly around the Tonle Sap Great Lake (TSL) and in the coastal provinces (CP). We present here new data for shallow groundwater (16–120-m depth) arsenic in the TSL and CP regions as well as an improved regression-kriging (RK) based groundwater arsenic hazard map for the whole country. High arsenic levels (up to 100μgL–1) were found in shallow groundwaters from the TSL and CP regions of Cambodia, but despite strong compositional similarities (near neutral, reducing, Na-Mg-Ca-HCO3 dominated) with high arsenic level groundwaters near the Mekong and Bassac rivers, groundwater arsenic levels in both the TSL and CP regions were most commonly low (interquartile range 0.09–1.2μgL–1). The RK geostatistical model was highly successful, accounting for over 50% of the observed variation in arsenic concentrations countrywide and represents a potentially useful tool for policymakers and those responsible and with the interest and authority to prepare arsenic mitigation and safe water supply plans.</jats:p