Ape Population Abundance Estimates

This annex presents ape abundance estimates at the site level. The term “site” refers to a protected area and its buffer zone, a logging concession or group of concessions, or any discrete area where a survey has taken place in the past two decades, although this annex also lists a few sites that were last surveyed in the 1970s and 1980s.Output Type: Online-only anne

Predicting Range Shifts of African Apes and Effectiveness of Protected Areas under Global Change Scenarios

First paragraph: Given a burgeoning human population and rapidly-growing global demand for natural resources, reconciling biodiversity conservation and human-related activities is a fundamental challenge. Tropical forests support at least two-thirds of the world's biodiversity, providing important ecosystem services at both global and local scales. However, a decline of 3% in global forest cover was reported between 2010 and 2015, with the highest rates of land-use change and degradation found in the tropics, where deforestation rates exceeded five million hectares per year. Africa had an annual rate of net forest loss at 3.9 million hectares between 2010 and 2020, and has up to 400 million hectares of forest that could potentially be used for agricultural expansion. Therefore, continued widespread expansion of agriculture is likely. Moreover, the African continent is the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change, and future droughts, floods and other extreme weather events will lead to the expansion of agriculture into more humid tropical areas. These areas are where great apes live and are generally high in biodiversity

Sustainable protected areas: Synergies between biodiversity conservation and socioeconomic development

1. Reconciling conservation and socioeconomic development goals is key to sustainability but remains a source of fierce debate. Protected areas (PAs) are believed to play an essential role in achieving these seemingly conflicting goals. Yet, there is limited evidence as to whether PAs are actually achieving the two goals simultaneously. 2. Here, we investigate when and to what extent synergies or trade‐offs between biodiversity conservation and local socioeconomic development occur. To explore these relationships, we collected data across a wide range of socioeconomic settings through face‐to‐face survey with PA managers from 114 African and European PAs using structured questionnaire. 3. We found synergies between biodiversity conservation and socioeconomic development for 62% of the PAs, albeit with significant differences between African (55%) and European PAs (75%). Moreover, the sustainability of PAs in conserving biodiversity was strongly correlated with the empowerment of the PA management and the involvement of local communities in PA planning and decision‐making processes. 4. Our results demonstrate that for PAs to promote synergies between biodiversity conservation and local socioeconomic development, and to enhance their long‐term sustainability, they should invest in the empowerment of their respective management and involvement of local communities in their planning and management activities

Sustainable protected areas: Synergies between biodiversity conservation and socioeconomic development

1. Reconciling conservation and socioeconomic development goals is key to sus- tainability but remains a source of fierce debate. Protected areas (PAs) are be- lieved to play an essential role in achieving these seemingly conflicting goals. Yet, there is limited evidence as to whether PAs are actually achieving the two goals simultaneously. 2. Here, we investigate when and to what extent synergies or trade- offs between biodiversity conservation and local socioeconomic development occur. To ex- plore these relationships, we collected data across a wide range of socioeco- nomic settings through face-to-face survey with PA managers from 114 African and European PAs using structured questionnaire. 3. We found synergies between biodiversity conservation and socioeconomic development for 62% of the PAs, albeit with significant differences between African (55%) and European PAs (75%). Moreover, the sustainability of PAs in conserving biodiversity was strongly correlated with the empowerment of the PA management and the involvement of local communities in PA planning and decision-making processes. 4. Our results demonstrate that for PAs to promote synergies between biodiver- sity conservation and local socioeconomic development, and to enhance their long-term sustainability, they should invest in the empowerment of their respec- tive management and involvement of local communities in their planning and management activitie

Pan paniscus (errata version published in 2016)

Due to high levels of illegal hunting, and habitat destruction and degradation,Pan paniscusis estimated to have experienced a significant population reduction in the last 15–20 years and it is thought that this reduction will continue for the next 60 years. Currently, by far the greatest threat to the Bonobo's survival is poaching for the commercial bushmeat trade. It has been estimated that nine tons of bushmeat are extracted daily from a 50,000-km² conservation landscape within the Bonobo’s range. Not only is there is a massive demand for bushmeat stemming from the cities, but rebel factions and poorly-paid government soldiers add to that demand, at the same time facilitating the flow of guns and ammunition (Fruthet al. 2013). In some areas, local taboos against eating Bonobo meat still exist, but in others, these traditions are disintegrating due to changing cultural values and population movements. Stricter enforcement of wildlife laws and more effective management are urgently needed. Habitat loss through deforestation and fragmentation ranks second. Much of the forest loss in this region is caused by slash-and-burn subsistence agriculture, which is most intense where human densities are high or growing. Logging and mining do not yet occur on an industrial scale in the Bonobo’s range, but in future, industrial agriculture is very likely to become a serious threat. Minimising the conversion of intact forest to human-dominated land uses, will be critical for the future survival of Bonobos. Countrywide factors contributing to the decline include the mobility of growing human populations, opening markets, commercial exploitation of natural resources and road construction. As in the past, the survival of Bonobos will be determined by the levels of poaching and forest loss—threats that have been shown to accompany rapid growth in human populations and political instability (Nackoneyet al. 2014). Due to their slow life history and a generation time estimated to be 25 years, Bonobo populations cannot withstand high levels of offtake. The population decline over a three-generation (75 year) period from 2003 to 2078 is likely to exceed 50%, hence qualifying this taxon as Endangered under criterion A

The Critically Endangered western chimpanzee declines by 80%

African large mammals are under extreme pressure from unsustainable hunting and habitat loss. Certain traits make large mammals particularly vulnerable. These include late age at first reproduction, long inter-birth intervals, and low population density. Great apes are a prime example of such vulnerability, exhibiting all of these traits. Here we assess the rate of population change for the western chimpanzee, Pan troglodytes verus, over a 24-year period. As a proxy for change in abundance, we used transect nest count data from 20 different sites archived in the IUCN SSC A.P.E.S. database, representing 25,000 of the estimated remaining 35,000 western chimpanzees. For each of the 20 sites, datasets for 2 different years were available. We estimated site-specific and global population change using Generalized Linear Models. At 12 of these sites, we detected a significant negative trend. The estimated change in the subspecies abundance, as approximated by nest encounter rate, yielded a 6% annual decline and a total decline of 80.2% over the study period from 1990 to 2014. This also resulted in a reduced geographic range of 20% (657,600 vs. 524,100 km2). Poverty, civil conflict, disease pandemics, agriculture, extractive industries, infrastructure development, and lack of law enforcement, are some of the many reasons for the magnitude of threat. Our status update triggered the uplisting of the western chimpanzee to “Critically Endangered” on the IUCN Red List. In 2017, IUCN will start updating the 2003 Action Plan for western chimpanzees and will provide a consensus blueprint for what is needed to save this subspecies. We make a plea for greater commitment to conservation in West Africa across sectors. Needed especially is more robust engagement by national governments, integration of conservation priorities into the private sector and development planning across the region and sustained financial support from donors.Additional co-authors: Emma Normand, Kathryn Shutt-Phillips, Alexander Tickle, Elleni Vendras, Adam Welsh, Erin G. Wessling, Christophe Boesc

Analysis of differences and commonalities in wildlife hunting across the Africa-Europe South-North gradient

Hunting and its impacts on wildlife are typically studied regionally, with a particular focus on the Global South. Hunting can, however, also undermine rewilding efforts or threaten wildlife in the Global North. Little is known about how hunting manifests under varying socioeconomic and ecological contexts across the Global South and North. Herein, we examined differences and commonalities in hunting characteristics across an exemplary Global South-North gradient approximated by the Human Development Index (HDI) using face-to-face interviews with 114 protected area (PA) managers in 25 African and European countries. Generally, we observed that hunting ranges from the illegal, economically motivated, and unsustainable hunting of herbivores in the South to the legal, socially and ecologically motivated hunting of ungulates within parks and the illegal hunting of mainly predators outside parks in the North. Commonalities across this Africa-Europe South-North gradient included increased conflict-related killings in human-dominated landscapes and decreased illegal hunting with beneficial community conditions, such as mutual trust resulting from community involvement in PA management. Nevertheless, local conditions cannot outweigh the strong effect of the HDI on unsustainable hunting. Our findings highlight regional challenges that require collaborative, integrative efforts in wildlife conservation across actors, while identified commonalities may outline universal mechanisms for achieving this goal.publishedVersio

Range-wide indicators of African great ape density distribution

Species distributions are influenced by processes occurring at multiple spatial scales. It is therefore insufficient to model species distribution at a single geographic scale, as this does not provide the necessary understanding of determining factors. Instead, multiple approaches are needed, each differing in spatial extent, grain, and research objective. Here, we present the first attempt to model continent-wide great ape density distribution. We used site-level estimates of African great ape abundance to (1) identify socioeconomic and environmental factors that drive densities at the continental scale, and (2) predict range-wide great ape density. We collated great ape abundance estimates from 156 sites and defined 134 pseudo-absence sites to represent additional absence locations. The latter were based on locations of unsuitable environmental conditions for great apes, and on existing literature. We compiled seven socioeconomic and environmental covariate layers and fitted a generalized linear model to investigate their influence on great ape abundance. We used an Akaike-weighted average of full and subset models to predict the range-wide density distribution of African great apes for the year 2015. Great ape densities were lowest where there were high Human Footprint and Gross Domestic Product values; the highest predicted densities were in Central Africa, and the lowest in West Africa. Only 10.7% of the total predicted population was found in the International Union for Conservation of Nature Category I and II protected areas. For 16 out of 20 countries, our estimated abundances were largely in line with those from previous studies. For four countries, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Liberia, and South Sudan, the estimated populations were excessively high. We propose further improvements to the model to overcome survey and predictor data limitations, which would enable a temporally dynamic approach for monitoring great apes across their range based on key indicators.Additional co-authors: Jessica Ganas-Swaray, Nicholas Granier, Elizabeth Greengrass, Stefanie Heinicke, Ilka Herbinger, Clement Inkamba-Nkulu, Fortuné Iyenguet, Jessica Junker, Kadiri S. Bobo, Alain Lushimba, Guy Aimé Florent Malanda, Maureen S. McCarthy, Prosper Motsaba, Jennifer Moustgaard, Mizuki Murai, Bezangoye Ndokoue, Stuart Nixon, Rostand Aba'a Nseme, Zacharie Nzooh, Lilian Pintea, Andrew J. Plumptre, Justin Roy, Aaron Rundus, Jim Sanderson, Adeline Serckx, Samantha Strindberg, Clement Tweh, Hilde Vanleeuwe, Ashley Vosper, Matthias Waltert, Michael Wilson, Roger Mundry, Hjalmar S. Küh

Threat of mining to African great apes

The rapid growth of clean energy technologies is driving a rising demand for critical minerals. In 2022 at the 15th Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (COP15), seven major economies formed an alliance to enhance the sustainability of mining these essential decarbonization minerals. However, there is a scarcity of studies assessing the threat of mining to global biodiversity. By integrating a global mining dataset with great ape density distribution, we estimated the number of African great apes that spatially coincided with industrial mining projects. We show that up to one-third of Africa's great ape population faces mining-related risks. In West Africa in particular, numerous mining areas overlap with fragmented ape habitats, often in high-density ape regions. For 97% of mining areas, no ape survey data are available, underscoring the importance of increased accessibility to environmental data within the mining sector to facilitate research into the complex interactions between mining, climate, biodiversity, and sustainability

Characteristics of Positive Deviants in Western Chimpanzee Populations

With continued expansion of anthropogenically modified landscapes, the proximity between humans and wildlife is continuing to increase, frequently resulting in species decline. Occasionally however, species are able to persist and there is an increased interest in understanding such positive outliers and underlying mechanisms. Eventually, such insights can inform the design of effective conservation interventions by mimicking aspects of the social-ecological conditions found in areas of species persistence. Recently, frameworks have been developed to study the heterogeneity of species persistence across populations with a focus on positive outliers. Applications are still rare, and to our knowledge this is one of the first studies using this approach for terrestrial species conservation. We applied the positive deviance concept to the western chimpanzee, which occurs in a variety of social-ecological landscapes. It is now categorized as Critically Endangered due to hunting and habitat loss and resulting excessive decline of most of its populations. Here we are interested in understanding why some of the populations did not decline. We compiled a dataset of 17,109 chimpanzee survey transects (10,929 km) across nine countries and linked them to a range of social and ecological variables. We found that chimpanzees seemed to persist within three social-ecological configurations: first, rainforest habitats with a low degree of human impact, second, steep areas, and third, areas with high prevalence of hunting taboos and low degree of human impact. The largest chimpanzee populations are nowadays found under the third social-ecological configuration, even though most of these areas are not officially protected. Most commonly chimpanzee conservation has been based on exclusion of threats by creation of protected areas and law enforcement. Our findings suggest, however, that this approach should be complemented by an additional focus on threat reduction, i.e., interventions that directly target individual human behavior that is most threatening to chimpanzees, which is hunting. Although changing human behavior is difficult, stakeholder co-designed behavioral change approaches developed in the social sciences have been used successfully to promote pro-environmental behavior. With only a fraction of chimpanzees and primates living inside protected areas, such new approaches might be a way forward to improve primate conservation