Transient climate change scenario simulation of the Mediterranean Sea for the 21st century using a high-resolution ocean circulation model

International audienceA scenario of the Mediterranean Sea is performed for the 21st century based on an ocean modelling approach. A climate change IPCC-A2 scenario run with an atmosphere regional climate model is used to force a Mediterranean Sea high resolution ocean model over the 1960-2099 period. For comparison, a control simulation as long as the scenario has also been carried out under present climate fluxes. This control run shows air-sea fluxes in agreement with observations, stable temperature and salinity characteristics and a realistic thermohaline circulation simulating the different intermediate and deep water masses described in the literature. During the scenario, warming and saltening are simulated for the surface (+3.1°C and +0.48 psu for the Mediterranean Sea at the end of the 21st century) and for the deeper layers (+1.5°C and +0.23 psu on average). These simulated trends are in agreement with observed trends for the Mediterranean Sea over the last decades. In addition, the Mediterranean thermohaline circulation (MTHC) is strongly weakened at the end of the 21st century. This behaviour is mainly due to the decrease in surface density and so the decrease in winter deep water formation. At the end of the 21st century, the MTHC weakening can be evaluated as -40% for the intermediate waters and -80% for the deep circulation with respect to present-climate conditions. The characteristics of the Mediterranean Outflow Waters flowing into the Atlantic Ocean are also strongly influenced during the scenario

Impact of the ocean-atmosphere coupling on high-resolution future projections for the Mediterranean sea and surrounding climate from the Med-CORDEX ensemble

Med-CORDEX is an international initiative that aims at developing fully coupled high resolution Regional Climate System Models (RCSMs) for the Mediterranean basin. After 11 years of work an ensemble of more than 25 multi-model and multi–scenario climatic simulations is now available (Darmaraki et al., 2019; Soto-Navarro et al., 2020). In this study, we analyze the impact of the high-resolution representation of the Mediterranean Sea and of the interaction between ocean and atmosphere, explicitly resolved in the Med-CORDEX simulations, in the projected evolution of the most relevant climatic variables for the Mediterranean basin and the adjacent regions during the 21st century. The final goal is to quantify up to what extent including the explicit and high-resolution representation of the ocean-atmosphere coupling is relevant for regional climate projections. The preliminary results show that, in general, higher resolution coupled simulations project a lower increase in the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) than lower resolution runs. This translates in a smaller input of heat and humidity to the atmosphere that, in turn, affect the cloud cover and precipitation over the basin and the adjacent continental areas. These changes are the result of a better representation of the Mediterranean Sea functioning in the Med-CORDEX RCSMs. In particular, they resolve better the mesoscale processes of the basin, which are partly responsible of the heat transport from the surface to deeper layers, and the ocean-atmosphere feedback that regulates the heat exchange

Ocean color response to wind forcing in the Alboran Sea: A new forecasting method

This work proposes a new method to reconstruct and forecast surface Chlorophyll (Chl) from remotely sensed (SeaWiFS) data in the Alboran Sea, based on the correlation between zonal wind velocities and satellite Chl concentrations. First, the spatial and temporal variability of Chl and zonal wind have been characterized using standard statistics. Second, the annual cycle and trends are removed from the original time series and the residuals submitted to an EOF computation scheme. Then, the correlations between the amplitudes of the first temporal modes of Chl-wind couple have been quantified. Using the most highly correlated pair (Chl-zonal wind, with r. =. 0.63), a simple linear relationship is proposed to reconstruct and forecast the Chl field. This forecasting method is more efficient than persistence for forecast horizons longer than 100. days, with a mean correlation between original and predicted field of 0.73 as compared to 0.5 for persistence for all the year round. In partic\ular, this new method gives a 0.95 mean correlation for periods from 100 to 290. days (while persistence gives 0.5). However, for a constant 8-days prediction horizon the persistence performs marginally better than the proposed method (0.79 vs. 0.68), giving some insight into the temporal scales of the features studied. These results may have significant implications for both short-term operational applications and seasonal forecasts. © 2012 Elsevier B.V.We acknowledge the support of SESAME Integrated Project (Contract number 036949).Peer Reviewe

Representation of spatial and temporal variability of daily wind speed and of intense wind events over the Mediterranean Sea using dynamical downscaling: impact of the regional climate model configuration

Atmospheric datasets coming from long term reanalyzes of low spatial resolution are used for different purposes. Wind over the sea is, for example, a major ingredient of oceanic simulations. However, the shortcomings of those datasets prevent them from being used without an adequate corrective preliminary treatment. Using a regional climate model (RCM) to perform a dynamical downscaling of those large scale reanalyzes is one of the methods used in order to produce fields that realistically reproduce atmospheric chronology and where those shortcomings are corrected. Here we assess the influence of the configuration of the RCM used in this framework on the representation of wind speed spatial and temporal variability and intense wind events on a daily timescale. Our RCM is ALADIN-Climate, the reanalysis is ERA-40, and the studied area is the Mediterranean Sea. <br><br> First, the dynamical downscaling significantly reduces the underestimation of daily wind speed, in average by 9 % over the whole Mediterranean. This underestimation has been corrected both globally and locally, and for the whole wind speed spectrum. The correction is the strongest for periods and regions of strong winds. The representation of spatial variability has also been significantly improved. On the other hand, the temporal correlation between the downscaled field and the observations decreases all the more that one moves eastwards, i.e. further from the atmospheric flux entry. Nonetheless, it remains ~0.7, the downscaled dataset reproduces therefore satisfactorily the real chronology. <br><br> Second, the influence of the choice of the RCM configuration has an influence one order of magnitude smaller than the improvement induced by the initial downscaling. The use of spectral nudging or of a smaller domain helps to improve the realism of the temporal chronology. Increasing the resolution very locally (both spatially and temporally) improves the representation of spatial variability, in particular in regions strongly influenced by the complex surrounding orography. The impact of the interactive air-sea coupling is negligible for the temporal scales examined here. Using two different forcing datasets induces differences on the downscaled fields that are directly related to the differences between those datasets. Our results also show that improving the physics of our RCM is still necessary to increase the realism of our simulations. Finally, the choice of the optimal configuration depends on the scientific objectives of the study for which those wind datasets are used

The MED-CORDEX ensemble future climate projections for the Mediterranean Sea: impacts of the high resolution and ocean-atmosphere coupling

Med-CORDEX is an international initiative that aims at developing fully coupled high resolution Regional Climate System Models (RCSMs) for the Mediterranean basin. After 11 years of work an ensemble of more than 25 multi-model and multi–scenario climatic simulations is now available. In this study, we analyze the impact of the high-resolution representation of the Mediterranean Sea and of the interaction between ocean and atmosphere, explicitly resolved in the Med-CORDEX simulations, in the projected evolution of the most relevant climatic variables for the Mediterranean basin and the adjacent regions during the 21st century. The final goal is to quantify up to what extent including the explicit and high-resolution representation of the ocean-atmosphere coupling is relevant for regional climate projections. The preliminary results show that, in general, higher resolution coupled simulations project a lower increase in the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) than lower resolution runs. This translates in a smaller input of heat and humidity to the atmosphere that, in turn, affect the cloud cover and precipitation over the basin and the adjacent continental areas. These changes are the result of a better representation of the Mediterranean Sea functioning in the Med-CORDEX RCSMs. In particular, they resolve better the mesoscale processes of the basin, which are partly responsible of the heat transport from the surface to deeper layers, and the ocean-atmosphere feedback that regulates the heat exchange.Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech

Atmospheric contribution to Mediterranean and nearby Atlantic sea level variability under different climate change scenarios

The contribution of atmospheric pressure and wind to the XXI century sea level variability in Southern Europe is explored under different climate change scenarios. The barotropic version of the HAMSOM model is forced with the output of the atmospheric ARPEGE model run under scenarios B1, A1B and A2. Additionally, a control simulation forced by observed SST, GHGs and aerosols concentrations for the period 1950-2000 and a hindcast forced by a dynamical downscalling of ERA40 for the period 1958-2001 are also run using the same models. The hindcast results have been validated against tide gauge observations showing good agreement with correlations around 0.8 and root mean square error of 3.2. cm. A careful comparison between the control simulation and the hindcast shows a reasonably good agreement between both runs in statistical terms, which points towards the reliability of the modelling system when it is forced only by GHG and aerosols concentrations. The results for the XXI century indicate a sea level decrease that would be especially strong in winter, with trends of up to - 0.8 ± 0.1. mm/year in the central Mediterranean under the A2 scenario. Trends in summer are small but positive (~. 0.05 ± 0.04. mm/yr), then leading to an increase in the amplitude of the seasonal cycle. The interannual variability also shows some changes, the most important being a widespread standard deviation increase of up to 40%. An increase in the frequency of positive phases of the NAO explains part of the winter negative trends. Also, an increase in the NAO variability would be responsible for the projected increase of the interannual variability of the atmospheric component of sea level. Conversely, the intra-annual variability (1-12. months excluding the seasonal cycle) does not show significant changes. © 2011 Elsevier B.V.This work has been carried out in the framework of the projects VANIMEDAT-2 (CTM2009-10163-C02-01, funded by the Spanish Marine Science and Technology Program and the E-Plan of the Spanish Government) and ESCENARIOS (funded by the Agencia Estatal de METeorología). Additional funding from the Platja de Palma Consortium is also acknowledged. G. Jordà acknowledges a “JAE-DOC” contract funded by the Spanish Research Council (CSIC).Peer Reviewe

Med-CORDEX initiative for Mediterranean climate studies

The Med-CORDEX initiative is a unique framework in which the research community makes use of regional earth system models to increase the reliability of past and future regional climate information. The Mediterranean is expected to be one of the most prominent and vulnerable climate change “hot spots” of the 21st century, and the physical mechanisms underlying this finding are still not clear. Furthermore complex interactions and feedbacks involving ocean-atmosphere-land-biogeochemical processes play a prominent role in modulating the climate and environment of the Mediterranean region on a range of spatial and temporal scales. Therefore it is critical to provide robust climate change information for use in Vulnerability/Impact/Adaptation assessment studies considering the Mediterranean as a fully coupled environmental system. The Med-CORDEX initiative aims at coordinating the Mediterranean climate modeling community towards the development of fully coupled regional climate simulations, improving all relevant components of the system, from atmosphere and ocean dynamics to land surface, hydrology and biogeochemical processes. The primary goals of Med-CORDEX are to improve understanding of past climate variability and trends, and to provide more accurate and reliable future projections, assessing in a quantitative and robust way the added value of using high resolution and coupled regional climate models. The coordination activities and the scientific outcomes of Med-CORDEX can produce an important framework to foster the development of regional earth system models in several key regions worldwide.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Mistral and Tramontane wind systems in climate simulations from 1950 to 2100

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Evaluation of regional ocean circulation models for the Mediterranean Sea at the Strait of Gibraltar: volume transport and thermohaline properties of the outflow

Se adjunta la versión postprint aceptada, que incluye las correcciones de de los revisores, debido a que la editorial tiene los derechos de copyright y no permite la difusión en acceso abierto de la versión publicada. Puede accederse a la misma a través del DOI que se incluye en los datos de la publicación.A set of simulations from different configurations of the NEMOMED8, NEMOMED12 and NEMOMED36 ocean regional circulation models for the Mediterranean Sea has been studied in order to assess the accuracy of their representation of the exchange through the Strait of Gibraltar. The model volume transport and thermohaline properties of the Mediterranean outflow have been compared with observational data collected at Espartel sill, the westernmost sill of the strait, by a permanent station moored since October 2004 in the frame of the INGRES projects. Results show that, in terms of volume transport, NEMOMED8 simulations perform a better representation of the exchange, while NEMOMED12/36 underestimate both the mean inflow and outflow. The reason for this underestimation is a too low velocity of the flow, which could be consequence of an enhanced roughness effect due the flow-bathymetry interaction. An important improvement in the representation of the exchange seasonality is achieved by the simulations including sea surface height variability of the Atlantic area of the domain. The results for the themohaline characteristics of the Mediterranean outflow are better for NEMOMED12 and NEMOMED36, as a consequence of their better representation of the local dynamical processes that leads to a more realistic composition of the Mediterranean waters comprising the flow.Este trabajo se llevó a cabo en el marco del proyecto P07-RNM-02938 financiado Junta de Andalucía. También se contó con apoyo parcial del proyecto CTM2010-21229/MAR (INGRES 3, Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnología

On the seasonality of eddies in the Western Mediterranean Sea: answers with altimetry and modeling.

Trabajo presentado en la EGU General Assemby 2013, celebrada del 7 al 12 de abril de 2013 en Viena (Austria)Eighteen years of weekly SLA merged maps in the Western Mediterranean are analyzed using the new method proposed by Chelton et al. (2011) to identify and track mesoscale eddies. The method has been adapted to take into account the specificity of the Mediterranean basin. Results are similar to the global ocean results with a radius smaller due to a smaller Rossby radius. The areas of intense rotational speed and amplitude of eddies are similar to the areas of intense eddy kinetic energy calculated from altimetry sea level anomalies. Eddies propagation speed shows a wide range of values without a clear preferred direction. Nevertheless, eddies seems to propagate following the main currents. Temporal analysis of the number of eddies per day is made focusing on the annual and semiannual variability. This annual and semi-annual cycle is analyzed using a regional model of the Mediterranean Sea and studying the interaction with atmospheric forcingsPeer reviewe