Modelling secondary production in the Norwegian Sea with a fully coupled physical/primary production/individual-based Calanus finmarchicus model system

The copepod Calanus finmarchicus is the dominant species of the meso-zooplankton in the Norwegian Sea, and constitutes an important link between the phytoplankton and the higher trophic levels in the Norwegian Sea food chain. An individual-based model for C. finmarchicus, based on super-individuals and evolving traits for behaviour, stages, etc., is two-way coupled to the NORWegian ECOlogical Model system (NORWECOM). One year of modelled C. finmarchicus spatial distribution, production and biomass are found to represent observations reasonably well. High C. finmarchicus abundance is found along the Norwegian shelf-break in the early summer, while the overwintering population is found along the slope and in the deeper Norwegian Sea basins. The timing of the spring bloom is generally later than in the observations. Annual Norwegian Sea production is found to be 29 million tonnes of carbon and a production to biomass (P/B) ratio of 4.3 emerges. Sensitivity tests show that the modelling system is robust to initial values of behavioural traits and with regards to the number of super-individuals simulated given that this is above about 50,000 individuals. Experiments with the model system indicate that it provides a valuable tool for studies of ecosystem responses to causative forces such as prey density or overwintering population size. For example, introducing C. finmarchicus food limitations reduces the stock dramatically, but on the other hand, a reduced stock may rebuild in one year under normal conditions

Assessing the importance of zooplankton sampling patterns with an ecosystem model

The copepod Calanus finmarchicus is the dominant species of mesozooplankton in the Norwegian Sea and an important food source for multiple commercially exploited pelagic fish stocks. In addition to the patchy distribution of species, the vast size of the Norwegian Sea makes synoptic zooplankton monitoring challenging. Monitoring includes relatively few sampling stations, and the number as well as the geographical location of these vary in time and space among years. In the present study, we explored the sampling patterns in 2 existing datasets: (1) for the period 1994-2004: size-fractionated zooplankton biomass, which allows for estimation of C. finmarchicus fractions, at irregularly spaced locations, and (2) for the period 1995-2017: non-size-fractionated zooplankton biomass data, gridded by objective analysis. We first assessed the C. finmarchicus data set by virtual sampling in C. finmarchicus spatial fields from the end-to-end ecosystem model NORWECOM.E2E. We found that non-consistent sampling patterns during the month of May caused the biomass estimate to be highly dependent on the chosen sampling strategy: sampling patterns from the first part of the period generally produced the highest biomass estimates. We then assessed the gridded zooplankton dataset by applying the 1995-2004 sampling patterns as well as a recent (2020) sampling pattern, which included regular and more numerous sampling locations, and found systematic differences. We conclude that the present May sampling pattern is much more robust and thereby also more likely to provide a good estimate of the interannual variability of the total biomass in the area. This study is an example of how models can be used to mechanistically interpret experimental datasets, and more specifically, how models can be used to assess sampling patterns and reveal their limitations.submittedVersio

Particle aggregation at the edges of anticyclonic eddies and implications for distribution of biomass

Acoustic measurements show that the biomass of zooplankton and mesopelagic fish is redistributed by mesoscale variability and that the signal extends over several hundred meters depth. The mechanisms governing this distribution are not well understood, but influences from both physical (i.e. redistribution) and biological processes (i.e. nutrient transport, primary production, active swimming, etc.) are likely. This study examines how hydrodynamic conditions and basic vertical swimming behavior act to distribute biomass in an anticyclonic eddy. Using an eddy-resolving 2.3 km-resolution physical ocean model as forcing for a particle-tracking module, particles representing passively floating organisms and organisms with vertical swimming behavior are released within an eddy and monitored for 20 to 30 days. The role of hydrodynamic conditions on the distribution of biomass is discussed in relation to the acoustic measurements. Particles released close to the surface tend, in agreement with the observations, to accumulate around the edge of the eddy, whereas particles released at depth gradually become distributed along the isopycnals. After a month they are displaced several hundreds meters in the vertical with the deepest particles found close to the eddy center and the shallowest close to the edge. There is no evidence of aggregation of particles along the eddy rim in the last simulation. The model results points towards a physical mechanism for aggregation at the surface, however biological processes cannot be ruled out using the current modeling tool.publishedVersio

Context matters when using climate model projections for aquaculture

At present, specific guidance on how to choose, assess and interpret climate model projections for the aquaculture sector is scarce. Since many aspects of aquaculture production are influenced by the local farm-level environment, there is a need to consider how climate model projections can be used to predict potential future farming conditions locally. This study compared in-situ measurements of temperature and salinity from Norwegian salmon farms and fixed monitoring stations to simulations from a regional ocean climate model for multiple locations and depths in southern Norway. For locations considered in this study, a similar seasonal cycle in terms of phasing was visible for modelled and measured temperatures. For some depths and times of the year the modelled and measured temperatures were similar, but for others there were differences. The model tended to underestimate temperature. On occasion there were differences between average modelled and measured temperatures of several degrees and aquaculture users would need to consider the implications of using the modelled temperatures. As for salinity, the model does not include localized freshwater inputs, so the model overestimated salinity for locations close to shore and was not able to represent more brackish water conditions in shallower depths. It was not possible to draw a general conclusion as to whether the model was suitable for aquaculture purposes, as the similarities and differences between the modelled and measured values varied by variable, area, depth, and time. These findings made it clear that aquaculture users would have to implement a process to determine whether they could use climate model outputs for their specific purpose. A model vetting framework is presented that can be used to support decisions on the use of climate model projections for aquaculture purposes. The vetting framework describes four stages that can be used to establish the necessary context regarding the aquaculture requirements and model capabilities, and then check how the model is simulating the conditions of interest at farm sites. Although the focus was aquaculture, the findings are relevant for other sectors and the framework can guide use of climate models for more local-scale assessment and management in coastal locations

Productivity in the Barents Sea - Response to recent climate variability

The temporal and spatial dynamics of primary and secondary biomass/production in the Barents Sea since the late 1990s are examined using remote sensing data, observations and a coupled physical-biological model. Field observations of mesozooplankton biomass, and chlorophyll a data from transects (different seasons) and large-scale surveys (autumn) were used for validation of the remote sensing products and modeling results. The validation showed that satellite data are well suited to study temporal and spatial dynamics of chlorophyll a in the Barents Sea and that the model is an essential tool for secondary production estimates. Temperature, open water area, chlorophyll a, and zooplankton biomass show large interannual variations in the Barents Sea. The climatic variability is strongest in the northern and eastern parts. The moderate increase in net primary production evident in this study is likely an ecosystem response to changes in climate during the same period. Increased open water area and duration of open water season, which are related to elevated temperatures, appear to be the key drivers of the changes in annual net primary production that has occurred in the northern and eastern areas of this ecosystem. The temporal and spatial variability in zooplankton biomass appears to be controlled largely by predation pressure. In the southeastern Barents Sea, statistically significant linkages were observed between chlorophyll a and zooplankton biomass, as well as between net primary production and fish biomass, indicating bottom-up trophic interactions in this region

Insight into real-world complexities is required to enable effective response from the aquaculture sector to climate change

This study demonstrates how a comprehensive knowledge base can be used by the aquaculture industry, researchers, and policymakers as a foundation for more targeted and detailed climate change impact analysis, risk assessments and adaptation planning. Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) production in Norway was used as a case study and to illustrate the need to consider impacts from multiple stressors across different production stages and the wider supply chain. Based on literature searches and industry news, a total of 45 impacts and 101 adaptation responses were identified. Almost all impacts were linked to multiple climate stressors, and many adaptation responses can be used for a range of impacts. Based on the research, a move towards more targeted and detailed assessments is recommended. This can be facilitated through a strong knowledge base, further research to address complexities, and better communication between all stakeholders. The results also demonstrate the need for more climate change research that reflects the challenges that the aquaculture sector faces, where multiple stressors and the range of impacts across production stages and the wider supply chain are included. Highlighting the wide range of stressors, impacts and adaptation responses provides a more holistic understanding of the real-world complexities that aquaculture producers face. This again could facilitate adoption of more effective responses to climate change needed to maintain or increase production sustainably

Climate change with increasing seawater temperature will challenge the health of farmed Atlantic Cod (Gadus morhua L.)

Aquaculture is one of the fastest growing food production sectors in the world and further expansion is expected throughout the 21st century. However, climate change is threatening the development of the sector and action is needed to prepare the industry for the coming challenges. Using downscaled temperature projections based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate projection (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway, SSP2-4.5), we analysed potential future temperatures at a selected Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua L.) farm site in Northern Norway. Results showed that the farming area may experience increased temperatures the next 10–15 years, including more days with temperatures above 17°C. Based on the predicted future conditions, we designed a study with Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua L.) to evaluate effects from high temperature alone and in combination with Fransicella noatunensis infection. Fish were kept at 12°C and 17°C for eight weeks and samples of skin and spleen collected at different timepoints were analysed with transcriptomics, histology, scanning electron microscopy and immunohistochemistry. Results showed that high temperature had a stronger effect on the barrier functions of skin than the infection. Increased temperature induced gene expression changes in skin and spleen, heat shock protein 47 and cold inducible RNA binding protein were identified as potential gene markers for thermal stress. The effect of bacterial challenge was small at 12°C. At high temperature, the development of severe pathology in spleen coincided with a significant decrease of immunoglobulins transcripts, which contrasted with the activation of multiple immune genes. In addition, we used an in vitro model of skin biopsies and scale explants exposed to hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) to assess the effects of thermal and oxidative stress. High temperature and H2O2 reduced proliferation and migration of keratocytes, and increased expression of stress markers, and compounding effects were observed with combined stressors. Results suggest that the projected increased seawater temperature will pose a significant threat to Norwegian cod farming, affecting various biological processes and making fish more vulnerable to stressors and pathogens. Cod farming needs high attention to temperature changes, and special precautions should be taken if the temperature increases beyond cods’ thermal optimum