Fluid dynamics of planetary ices

The role of water ice in the solar system is reviewed from a fluid-dynamical point of view. On Earth and Mars, water ice forms ice sheets, ice caps and glaciers at the surface, which show glacial flow under their own weight. By contrast, water ice is a major constituent of the bulk volume of the icy satellites in the outer solar system, and ice flow can occur as thermal convection. The rheology of polycrystalline aggregates of ordinary, hexagonal ice Ih is described by a power law, different forms of which are discussed. The temperature dependence of the ice viscosity follows an Arrhenius law. Therefore, the flow of ice in a planetary environment constitutes a thermo-mechanically coupled problem; its model equations are obtained by inserting the flow law and the thermodynamic material equations in the balance laws of mass, momentum and energy. As an example of gravity-driven flow, the polar caps of Mars are discussed. For the north-polar cap, large-scale flow velocities of the order of 0.1...1 mm/a are likely, locally enhanced by a factor ten or more in the vicinity of surface scarps/troughs. By contrast, the colder south-polar cap is expected to be almost stagnant. Tidally heated convection is discussed for the example of the icy crust of Europa, where a two-dimensional model predicts the formation of an upper, conductive lid and a lower, convective layer with flow velocities of the order of 100 mm/a. Very little is known about the fluid-dynamical relevance of high-pressure phases of water ice as well as ices made up of other materials.Comment: 24 pages, 12 figure

Large-scale features of Pliocene climate: results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project

Climate and environments of the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264 to 3.025 Ma) have been extensively studied. Whilst numerical models have shed light on the nature of climate at the time, uncertainties in their predictions have not been systematically examined. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project quantifies uncertainties in model outputs through a coordinated multi-model and multi-model/data intercomparison. Whilst commonalities in model outputs for the Pliocene are clearly evident, we show substantial variation in the sensitivity of models to the implementation of Pliocene boundary conditions. Models appear able to reproduce many regional changes in temperature reconstructed from geological proxies. However, data/model comparison highlights that models potentially underestimate polar amplification. To assert this conclusion with greater confidence, limitations in the time-averaged proxy data currently available must be addressed. Furthermore, sensitivity tests exploring the known unknowns in modelling Pliocene climate specifically relevant to the high latitudes are essential (e.g. palaeogeography, gateways, orbital forcing and trace gasses). Estimates of longer-term sensitivity to CO2 (also known as Earth System Sensitivity; ESS), support previous work suggesting that ESS is greater than Climate Sensitivity (CS), and suggest that the ratio of ESS to CS is between 1 and 2, with a "best" estimate of 1.5

Surface albedo changes with time on Titan’s possible cryovolcanic sites: Cassini/VIMS processing and geophysical implications

We present a study on Titan’s possibly cryovolcanic and varying regions as suggested from previous studies [e.g. 1;2;7]. These regions, which are potentially subject to change over time in brightness and are located close to the equator, are Tui Regio, Hotei Regio, and Sotra Patera. We apply two methods on Cassini/VIMS data in order to retrieve their surface properties and monitor any temporal variations. First, we apply a statistical method, the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) [3;4] where we manage to isolate regions of distinct and diverse chemical composition called ‘Region of interest – RoI’. Then, we focus on retrieving the spectral differences (with respect to the Huygens landing site albedo) among the RoIs by applying a radiative transfer code (RT) [5;3]. Hence, we are able to view the dynamical range and evaluate the differences in surface albedo within the RoIs of the three regions. In addition, using this double procedure, we study the temporal surface variations of the three regions witnessing albedo changes with time for Tui Regio from 2005-2009 (darkening) and Sotra Patera from 2005-2006 (brightening) at all wavelengths [3]. The surface albedo variations and the presence of volcanic-like features within the regions in addition to a recent study [6] that calculates Titan's tidal response are significant indications for the connection of the interior with the cryovolcanic candidate features with implications for the satellite’s astrobiological potential

Stable Isotopic Evidence for Methane Seeps in Neoproterozoic Postglacial Cap Carbonates

The Earth's most severe glaciations are thought to have occurred about 600 million years ago, in the late Neoproterozoic era. A puzzling feature of glacial deposits from this interval is that they are overlain by 1–5-m-thick 'cap carbonates' (particulate deep-water marine carbonate rocks) associated with a prominent negative carbon isotope excursion. Cap carbonates have been controversially ascribed to the aftermath of almost complete shutdown of the ocean ecosystems for millions of years during such ice ages—the 'snowball Earth' hypothesis. Conversely, it has also been suggested that these carbonate rocks were the result of destabilization of methane hydrates during deglaciation and concomitant flooding of continental shelves and interior basins. The most compelling criticism of the latter 'methane hydrate' hypothesis has been the apparent lack of extreme isotopic variation in cap carbonates inferred locally to be associated with methane seeps. Here we report carbon isotopic and petrographic data from a Neoproterozoic postglacial cap carbonate in south China that provide direct evidence for methane-influenced processes during deglaciation. This evidence lends strong support to the hypothesis that methane hydrate destabilization contributed to the enigmatic cap carbonate deposition and strongly negative carbon isotopic anomalies following Neoproterozoic ice ages. This explanation requires less extreme environmental disturbance than that implied by the snowball Earth hypothesis

Sea Surface Temperature of the mid-Piacenzian Ocean:A Data-Model Comparison

The mid-Piacenzian climate represents the most geologically recent interval of long-term average warmth relative to the last million years, and shares similarities with the climate projected for the end of the 21st century. As such, it represents a natural experiment from which we can gain insight into potential climate change impacts, enabling more informed policy decisions for mitigation and adaptation. Here, we present the first systematic comparison of Pliocene sea surface temperature (SST) between an ensemble of eight climate model simulations produced as part of PlioMIP (Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project) with the PRISM (Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping) Project mean annual SST field. Our results highlight key regional and dynamic situations where there is discord between the palaeoenvironmental reconstruction and the climate model simulations. These differences have led to improved strategies for both experimental design and temporal refinement of the palaeoenvironmental reconstruction

The hydrological cycle and ocean circulation of the Maritime Continent in the Pliocene: results from PlioMIP2

The Maritime Continent (MC) forms the western boundary of the tropical Pacific Ocean, and relatively small changes in this region can impact the climate locally and remotely. In the mid-Piacenzian warm period of the Pliocene (mPWP; 3.264 to 3.025 Ma) atmospheric CO2 concentrations were ∼ 400 ppm, and the subaerial Sunda and Sahul shelves made the land–sea distribution of the MC different to today. Topographic changes and elevated levels of CO2, combined with other forcings, are therefore expected to have driven a substantial climate signal in the MC region at this time. By using the results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2), we study the mean climatic features of the MC in the mPWP and changes in Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) with respect to the preindustrial. Results show a warmer and wetter mPWP climate of the MC and lower sea surface salinity in the surrounding ocean compared with the preindustrial. Furthermore, we quantify the volume transfer through the ITF; although the ITF may be expected to be hindered by the subaerial shelves, 10 out of 15 models show an increased volume transport compared with the preindustrial. In order to avoid undue influence from closely related models that are present in the PlioMIP2 ensemble, we introduce a new metric, the multi-cluster mean (MCM), which is based on cluster analysis of the individual models. We study the effect that the choice of MCM versus the more traditional analysis of multi-model mean (MMM) and individual models has on the discrepancy between model results and data. We find that models, which reproduce modern MC climate well, are not always good at simulating the mPWP climate anomaly of the MC. By comparing with individual models, the MMM and MCM reproduce the preindustrial sea surface temperature (SST) of the reanalysis better than most individual models and produce less discrepancy with reconstructed sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) than most individual models in the MC. In addition, the clusters reveal spatial signals that are not captured by the MMM, so that the MCM provides us with a new way to explore the results from model ensembles that include similar models

Evaluation of Arctic warming in mid-Pliocene climate simulations

Palaeoclimate simulations improve our understanding of the climate, inform us about the performance of climate models in a different climate scenario, and help to identify robust features of the climate system. Here, we analyse Arctic warming in an ensemble of 16 simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP), derived from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2). The PlioMIP2 ensemble simulates Arctic (60–90∘ N) annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) increases of 3.7 to 11.6 ∘C compared to the pre-industrial period, with a multi-model mean (MMM) increase of 7.2 ∘C. The Arctic warming amplification ratio relative to global SAT anomalies in the ensemble ranges from 1.8 to 3.1 (MMM is 2.3). Sea ice extent anomalies range from −3.0 to −10.4×10^{6} km^{2}, with a MMM anomaly of −5.6×10^{6} km^{2}, which constitutes a decrease of 53 % compared to the pre-industrial period. The majority (11 out of 16) of models simulate summer sea-ice-free conditions (≤1×10^{6} km^{2}) in their mPWP simulation. The ensemble tends to underestimate SAT in the Arctic when compared to available reconstructions, although the degree of underestimation varies strongly between the simulations. The simulations with the highest Arctic SAT anomalies tend to match the proxy dataset in its current form better. The ensemble shows some agreement with reconstructions of sea ice, particularly with regard to seasonal sea ice. Large uncertainties limit the confidence that can be placed in the findings and the compatibility of the different proxy datasets. We show that while reducing uncertainties in the reconstructions could decrease the SAT data–model discord substantially, further improvements are likely to be found in enhanced boundary conditions or model physics. Lastly, we compare the Arctic warming in the mPWP to projections of future Arctic warming and find that the PlioMIP2 ensemble simulates greater Arctic amplification than CMIP5 future climate simulations and an increase instead of a decrease in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength compared to pre-industrial period. The results highlight the importance of slow feedbacks in equilibrium climate simulations, and that caution must be taken when using simulations of the mPWP as an analogue for future climate change

A return to large-scale features of Pliocene climate: the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2

The Pliocene epoch has great potential to improve our understanding of the long-term climatic and environmental consequences of an atmospheric CO2 concentration near ~ 400 parts per million by volume. Here we present the large-scale features of Pliocene climate as simulated by a new ensemble of climate models of varying complexity and spatial resolution and based on new reconstructions of boundary conditions (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2; PlioMIP2). As a global annual average, modelled surface air temperatures increase by between 1.4 and 4.7 °C relative to pre-industrial with a multi-model mean value of 2.8 °C. Annual mean total precipitation rates increase by 6 % (range: 2 %–13 %). On average, surface air temperature (SAT) increases are 1.3 °C greater over the land than over the oceans, and there is a clear pattern of polar amplification with warming polewards of 60° N and 60° S exceeding the global mean warming by a factor of 2.4. In the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, meridional temperature gradients are reduced, while tropical zonal gradients remain largely unchanged. Although there are some modelling constraints, there is a statistically significant relationship between a model's climate response associated with a doubling in CO2 (Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity; ECS) and its simulated Pliocene surface temperature response. The mean ensemble earth system response to doubling of CO2 (including ice sheet feedbacks) is approximately 50 % greater than ECS, consistent with results from the PlioMIP1 ensemble. Proxy-derived estimates of Pliocene sea-surface temperatures are used to assess model estimates of ECS and indicate a range in ECS from 2.5 to 4.3 °C. This result is in general accord with the range in ECS presented by previous IPCC Assessment Reports