Failure monitoring in dynamic systems: Model construction without fault training data

Advances in the use of autoregressive models, pattern recognition methods, and hidden Markov models for on-line health monitoring of dynamic systems (such as DSN antennas) have recently been reported. However, the algorithms described in previous work have the significant drawback that data acquired under fault conditions are assumed to be available in order to train the model used for monitoring the system under observation. This article reports that this assumption can be relaxed and that hidden Markov monitoring models can be constructed using only data acquired under normal conditions and prior knowledge of the system characteristics being measured. The method is described and evaluated on data from the DSS 13 34-m beam wave guide antenna. The primary conclusion from the experimental results is that the method is indeed practical and holds considerable promise for application at the 70-m antenna sites where acquisition of fault data under controlled conditions is not realistic

Initial results on fault diagnosis of DSN antenna control assemblies using pattern recognition techniques

Initial results obtained from an investigation using pattern recognition techniques for identifying fault modes in the Deep Space Network (DSN) 70 m antenna control loops are described. The overall background to the problem is described, the motivation and potential benefits of this approach are outlined. In particular, an experiment is described in which fault modes were introduced into a state-space simulation of the antenna control loops. By training a multilayer feed-forward neural network on the simulated sensor output, classification rates of over 95 percent were achieved with a false alarm rate of zero on unseen tests data. It concludes that although the neural classifier has certain practical limitations at present, it also has considerable potential for problems of this nature

Real-time antenna fault diagnosis experiments at DSS 13

Experimental results obtained when a previously described fault diagnosis system was run online in real time at the 34-m beam waveguide antenna at Deep Space Station (DSS) 13 are described. Experimental conditions and the quality of results are described. A neural network model and a maximum-likelihood Gaussian classifier are compared with and without a Markov component to model temporal context. At the rate of a state update every 6.4 seconds, over a period of roughly 1 hour, the neural-Markov system had zero errors (incorrect state estimates) while monitoring both faulty and normal operations. The overall results indicate that the neural-Markov combination is the most accurate model and has significant practical potential

STOL aircraft transient ground effects. Part 1: Fundamental analytical study

The first phases of a fundamental analytical study of STOL ground effects were presented. Ground effects were studied in two dimensions to establish the importance of nonlinear effects, to examine transient aspects of ascent and descent near the ground, and to study the modelling of the jet impingement on the ground. Powered lift system effects were treated using the jet-flap analogy. The status of a three-dimensional jet-wing ground effect method was presented. It was shown, for two-dimensional unblown airfoils, that the transient effects are small and are primarily due to airfoil/freestream/ground orientation rather than to unsteady effects. The three-dimensional study showed phenomena similar to the two-dimensional results. For unblown wings, the wing/freestream/ground orientation effects were shown to be of the same order of magnitude as for unblown airfoils. This may be used to study the nonplanar, nonlinear, jet-wing ground effect

Electrical Characterization of PbZr0.4Ti0.6O3 Capacitors

We have conducted a careful study of current-voltage (I-V) characteristics in fully integrated commercial PbZr0.4Ti0.6O3 thin film capacitors with Pt bottom and Ir/IrO2 top electrodes. Highly reproducible steady state I-V were obtained at various temperatures over two decades in voltage from current-time data and analyzed in terms of several common transport models including space charge limited conduction, Schottky thermionic emission under full and partial depletion and Poole-Frenkel conduction, showing that the later is the most plausible leakage mechanism in these high quality films. In addition, ferroelectric hysteresis loops and capacitance-voltage data were obtained over a large range of temperatures and discussed in terms of a modified Landau-Ginzburg-Devonshire theory accounting for space charge effects.Comment: 17 pages, 7 figure

Marginally unstable Holmboe modes

Marginally unstable Holmboe modes for smooth density and velocity profiles are studied. For a large family of flows and stratification that exhibit Holmboe instability, we show that the modes with phase velocity equal to the maximum or the minimum velocity of the shear are marginally unstable. This allows us to determine the critical value of the control parameter R (expressing the ratio of the velocity variation length scale to the density variation length scale) that Holmboe instability appears R=2. We then examine systems for which the parameter R is very close to this critical value. For this case we derive an analytical expression for the dispersion relation of the complex phase speed c(k) in the unstable region. The growth rate and the width of the region of unstable wave numbers has a very strong (exponential) dependence on the deviation of R from the critical value. Two specific examples are examined and the implications of the results are discussed.Comment: Submitted to Physics of Fluid

Multiresolution pattern recognition of small volcanos in Magellan data

The Magellan data is a treasure-trove for scientific analysis of venusian geology, providing far more detail than was previously available from Pioneer Venus, Venera 15/16, or ground-based radar observations. However, at this point, planetary scientists are being overwhelmed by the sheer quantities of data collected--data analysis technology has not kept pace with our ability to collect and store it. In particular, 'small-shield' volcanos (less than 20 km in diameter) are the most abundant visible geologic feature on the planet. It is estimated, based on extrapolating from previous studies and knowledge of the underlying geologic processes, that there should be on the order of 10(exp 5) to 10(exp 6) of these volcanos visible in the Magellan data. Identifying and studying these volcanos is fundamental to a proper understanding of the geologic evolution of Venus. However, locating and parameterizing them in a manual manner is very time-consuming. Hence, we have undertaken the development of techniques to partially automate this task. The goal is not the unrealistic one of total automation, but rather the development of a useful tool to aid the project scientists. The primary constraints for this particular problem are as follows: (1) the method must be reasonably robust; and (2) the method must be reasonably fast. Unlike most geological features, the small volcanos of Venus can be ascribed to a basic process that produces features with a short list of readily defined characteristics differing significantly from other surface features on Venus. For pattern recognition purposes the relevant criteria include the following: (1) a circular planimetric outline; (2) known diameter frequency distribution from preliminary studies; (3) a limited number of basic morphological shapes; and (4) the common occurrence of a single, circular summit pit at the center of the edifice

Immediate replacement of fishing with dairying by the earliest farmers of the NE Atlantic archipelagos

The appearance of farming, from its inception in the Near East around 12 000 years ago, finally reached the northwestern extremes of Europe by the fourth millennium BC or shortly thereafter. Various models have been invoked to explain the Neolithization of northern Europe; however, resolving these different scenarios has proved problematic due to poor faunal preservation and the lack of specificity achievable for commonly applied proxies. Here, we present new multi-proxy evidence, which qualitatively and quantitatively maps subsistence change in the northeast Atlantic archipelagos from the Late Mesolithic into the Neolithic and beyond. A model involving significant retention of hunter–gatherer–fisher influences was tested against one of the dominant adoptions of farming using a novel suite of lipid biomarkers, including dihydroxy fatty acids, ω-(o-alkylphenyl)alkanoic acids and stable carbon isotope signatures of individual fatty acids preserved in cooking vessels. These new findings, together with archaeozoological and human skeletal collagen bulk stable carbon isotope proxies, unequivocally confirm rejection of marine resources by early farmers coinciding with the adoption of intensive dairy farming. This pattern of Neolithization contrasts markedly to that occurring contemporaneously in the Baltic, suggesting that geographically distinct ecological and cultural influences dictated the evolution of subsistence practices at this critical phase of European prehistory

Stratified shear flow instabilities at large Richardson numbers

Numerical simulations of stratified shear flow instabilities are performed in two dimensions in the Boussinesq limit. The density variation length scale is chosen to be four times smaller than the velocity variation length scale so that Holmboe or Kelvin-Helmholtz unstable modes are present depending on the choice of the global Richardson number Ri. Three different values of Ri were examined Ri =0.2, 2, 20. The flows for the three examined values are all unstable due to different modes namely: the Kelvin-Helmholtz mode for Ri=0.2, the first Holmboe mode for Ri=2, and the second Holmboe mode for Ri=20 that has been discovered recently and it is the first time that it is examined in the non-linear stage. It is found that the amplitude of the velocity perturbation of the second Holmboe mode at the non-linear stage is smaller but comparable to first Holmboe mode. The increase of the potential energy however due to the second Holmboe modes is greater than that of the first mode. The Kelvin-Helmholtz mode is larger by two orders of magnitude in kinetic energy than the Holmboe modes and about ten times larger in potential energy than the Holmboe modes. The results in this paper suggest that although mixing is suppressed at large Richardson numbers it is not negligible, and turbulent mixing processes in strongly stratified environments can not be excluded.Comment: Submitted to Physics of Fluid