Electrical load forecasting

Some long-term design activities are based on electrical load forecasting. Forecasting errors result in the wrong decisions being made in the future. At present there are three widely used methods of forecasting: the method based on enlarged specific indexes (ESI), the econometric method and the self-sufficient method. All of these methods have their own disadvantages and errors in estimation. The main reasons for errors in areas such as objective reasoning, changes in production technology, the lack of reliable long-term forecasting for economy development and consumer infraction of load schedule are determined in this paper and an objective estimation for the forecasted error of different spheres of application is made. This work aims to determine a sphere of application for each of these methods and to develop a principal of combined application, so that they may decrease forecasting error. The purpose of this work consists of the creation of an electrical load forecasting method to obtain more reliable data for the different time periods and territory. A new method is presented, based on calculations carried out. Recommendations for all existing methods are given with reference to the calculations and the way that the combined application of several methods was introduced to increase the reliability of a forecast. © 2014 WIT Press.International Journal of Safety and Security Engineering;International Journal of Sustainable Development and Planning;WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environmen

The review (typology) of small and medium-sized business in Russia and abroad

The article examines the problem of classification of small and medium-sized business in Russia, which is relevant due to the increase in state support for them, in order to increase the targeting of the support provided. The article also discusses the development of small and medium-sized business in Russia since the end of the previous century, its gradually changing legislative regulation and comparison of criteria for classification of small and medium-sized business in Russia and foreign countries. In addition, the question is raised about small and medium-sized business falling out of the official classification, while, by their nature of activity, do not cease to be such and possible causes of this phenomenon. In order to resolve controversial issues of classification, some assumptions and possible ways to solve are put forward in the article on the basis of the conducted research that can eliminate gaps in legislation. Within the framework of writing this article, such scientific research methods were used as analysis and generalization of domestic and foreign anti-crisis measures

Distance learning: opportunities and challenges in quarantine.

The urgent introduction of distance education into the learning process due to the COVID-19 pandemic has become a spontaneous experiment, requiring urgent decisions, effective mechanisms to implement into the educational process and analysis of ongoing educational process. The possibilities of modern digital technologies made it possible to quickly set up the information component of education and to controle student’s knowledge. A detailed analysis of the communication between the faculty members of the department among themselves and analysis of the features of teaching and self-education of students in the field of medical radiology and oncology based on answers and comments with using Google classroom, Socrative, Messenger Telegram, etc. was made. Issues of communicative interaction between faculty members and students, psychological aspects of distance communication, language of instruction, logistics of distance education and methodological problems are described in details. It has been suggested that distance education may be equally effective for theoretical subjects in full-time study form, but when studying clinical disciplines, the priority should be given to traditional methods of teaching, involving student's bedside training. Taking into account technical possibilities and high risk of development of extreme and emergency situations, it is suggested to introduce permanent readiness for distance education, to create all – Ukrainian distance imitation service of patients’ follow-up. The importance of using the state language in training as the basis for mastering the professional Ukrainian and English language as the basis for mastering international medical experience is indicated

Prediction of cardiovascular risk using Framingham, ASSIGN and QRISK2: how well do they predict individual rather than population risk?

BACKGROUND: The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of risk scores (Framingham, Assign and QRISK2) in predicting high cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals rather than populations. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This study included 1.8 million persons without CVD and prior statin prescribing using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. This contains electronic medical records of the general population registered with a UK general practice. Individual CVD risks were estimated using competing risk regression models. Individual differences in the 10-year CVD risks as predicted by risk scores and competing risk models were estimated; the population was divided into 20 subgroups based on predicted risk. CVD outcomes occurred in 69,870 persons. In the subgroup with lowest risks, risk predictions by QRISK2 were similar to individual risks predicted using our competing risk model (99.9% of people had differences of less than 2%); in the subgroup with highest risks, risk predictions varied greatly (only 13.3% of people had differences of less than 2%). Larger deviations between QRISK2 and our individual predicted risks occurred with calendar year, different ethnicities, diabetes mellitus and number of records for medical events in the electronic health records in the year before the index date. A QRISK2 estimate of low 10-year CVD risk (<15%) was confirmed by Framingham, ASSIGN and our individual predicted risks in 89.8% while an estimate of high 10-year CVD risk (≥ 20%) was confirmed in only 48.6% of people. The majority of cases occurred in people who had predicted 10-year CVD risk of less than 20%. CONCLUSIONS: Application of existing CVD risk scores may result in considerable misclassification of high risk status. Current practice to use a constant threshold level for intervention for all patients, together with the use of different scoring methods, may inadvertently create an arbitrary classification of high CVD risk

Estimating the costs of air pollution to the National Health Service and social care : An assessment and forecast up to 2035

BACKGROUND: Air pollution damages health by promoting the onset of some non-communicable diseases (NCDs), putting additional strain on the National Health Service (NHS) and social care. This study quantifies the total health and related NHS and social care cost burden due to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) in England. METHOD AND FINDINGS: Air pollutant concentration surfaces from land use regression models and cost data from hospital admissions data and a literature review were fed into a microsimulation model, that was run from 2015 to 2035. Different scenarios were modelled: (1) baseline 'no change' scenario; (2) individuals' pollutant exposure is reduced to natural (non-anthropogenic) levels to compute the disease cases attributable to PM2.5 and NO2; (3) PM2.5 and NO2 concentrations reduced by 1 μg/m3; and (4) NO2 annual European Union limit values reached (40 μg/m3). For the 18 years after baseline, the total cumulative cost to the NHS and social care is estimated at £5.37 billion for PM2.5 and NO2 combined, rising to £18.57 billion when costs for diseases for which there is less robust evidence are included. These costs are due to the cumulative incidence of air-pollution-related NCDs, such as 348,878 coronary heart disease cases estimated to be attributable to PM2.5 and 573,363 diabetes cases estimated to be attributable to NO2 by 2035. Findings from modelling studies are limited by the conceptual model, assumptions, and the availability and quality of input data. CONCLUSIONS: Approximately 2.5 million cases of NCDs attributable to air pollution are predicted by 2035 if PM2.5 and NO2 stay at current levels, making air pollution an important public health priority. In future work, the modelling framework should be updated to include multi-pollutant exposure-response functions, as well as to disaggregate results by socioeconomic status

Hydrodynamic properties of cyclodextrin molecules in dilute solutions

Three well-known representatives of the cyclodextrin family were completely characterized by molecular hydrodynamics methods in three different solvents. For the first time the possibility of an estimation of velocity sedimentation coefficients s between 0.15 and 0.5 S by the numerical solution of the Lamm equation is shown. Comparison of the experimental hydrodynamic characteristics of the cyclodextrins with theoretical calculations for toroidal molecules allows an estimation of the thickness of the solvent layers on the surface of cyclodextrin molecules

Population genomics of marine zooplankton

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2017. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Bucklin, Ann et al. "Population Genomics of Marine Zooplankton." Population Genomics: Marine Organisms. Ed. Om P. Rajora and Marjorie Oleksiak. Springer, 2018. doi:10.1007/13836_2017_9.The exceptionally large population size and cosmopolitan biogeographic distribution that distinguish many – but not all – marine zooplankton species generate similarly exceptional patterns of population genetic and genomic diversity and structure. The phylogenetic diversity of zooplankton has slowed the application of population genomic approaches, due to lack of genomic resources for closelyrelated species and diversity of genomic architecture, including highly-replicated genomes of many crustaceans. Use of numerous genomic markers, especially single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), is transforming our ability to analyze population genetics and connectivity of marine zooplankton, and providing new understanding and different answers than earlier analyses, which typically used mitochondrial DNA and microsatellite markers. Population genomic approaches have confirmed that, despite high dispersal potential, many zooplankton species exhibit genetic structuring among geographic populations, especially at large ocean-basin scales, and have revealed patterns and pathways of population connectivity that do not always track ocean circulation. Genomic and transcriptomic resources are critically needed to allow further examination of micro-evolution and local adaptation, including identification of genes that show evidence of selection. These new tools will also enable further examination of the significance of small-scale genetic heterogeneity of marine zooplankton, to discriminate genetic “noise” in large and patchy populations from local adaptation to environmental conditions and change.Support was provided by the US National Science Foundation to AB and RJO (PLR-1044982) and to RJO (MCB-1613856); support to IS and MC was provided by Nord University (Norway)

Estimation of functional adaptation of the transplanted heart in an organism of the recipient

Significant development of the heart transplantation in clinical practice allowed implementing these types of surgery in most of the major cardiac clinics in the world. This happened because of the improvement of surgical techniques, artificial blood-circulation apparatuses and especially immunosuppression methods. It goes without saying, that these achievements raise the new questions. One of the most important one among them is the recovery of extracardiac regulation, especially the nerve regulatory effect on the transplanted heart. Six months after surgery we've examined 10 patients. Cardiorespiratory synchronism was not detected among all the patients, primary pacemaker in the sinoatrial region of the heart showed no reaction to the Danini-Aschner reflex. These facts showed no signs of the heart's functional reinnervation and recovery of mechanisms of the heart rhythmogenesis hierarchical organization. At the same time, changes in heart rate variability of these patients gave us the reason to assume a manifestation of the initial stages of incorporating the central nervous system influences to the heart rate. The spectral analysis of heart rate variability among these patients showed that TP ms2 they amounted 152,45 ± 13,48; HF ms2 - 59,85 ± 25,02 and VLF ms2 - 74,55 ± 33,16

POST-TRAUMATIC DAMAGE OF BRACHIAL PLEXUS: CLINICAL CASE STUDY

The article presents a clinical case of a posttraumatic injury of branchial plexus. As a result of head-on car collision the driver suffered an injury of left brachial plexus and its branches, multiple rib fractures, a broken left collarbone. Formation of posttraumatic edema ultimately led to interruption of venous and lymphatic drainage from the left axillary basin. A posttraumatic keloid and unremoved bone pieces aggravated the manifestations of edema, which persisted 6 months. This strongly challenged the rehabilitation aimed to restore nerve conduction