The future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distribution

Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, position of centroid, and margins. We fitted the SDMs with data collected for the first European Breeding Bird Atlas and climate and land-use data to predict distributional changes over a century (the 1970s-2070s). The predicted annual changes were then compared to observed annual changes in range size and range centroid over a time period of 30 years using data from the second European Breeding Bird Atlas. Our models successfully predicted ca. 75% of the 64 bird species to contract their breeding range in the future, while the remaining species (mostly southerly breeding species) were predicted to expand their breeding ranges northward. The northern margins of southerly species and southern margins of northerly species, both, predicted to shift northward. Predicted changes in range size and shifts in range centroids were broadly positively associated with the observed changes, although some species deviated markedly from the predictions. The predicted average shift in core distributions was ca. 5 km yr(-1) towards the north (5% northeast, 45% north, and 40% northwest), compared to a slower observed average shift of ca. 3.9 km yr(-1). Predicted changes in range centroids were generally larger than observed changes, which suggests that bird distribution changes may lag behind environmental changes leading to 'climate debt'. We suggest that predictions of SDMs should be viewed as qualitative rather than quantitative outcomes, indicating that care should be taken concerning single species. Still, our results highlight the urgent need for management actions such as wetland creation and restoration to improve wetland birds' resilience to the expected environmental changes in the future

The future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distribution

Publisher Copyright: © 2022 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, position of centroid, and margins. We fitted the SDMs with data collected for the first European Breeding Bird Atlas and climate and land-use data to predict distributional changes over a century (the 1970s-2070s). The predicted annual changes were then compared to observed annual changes in range size and range centroid over a time period of 30 years using data from the second European Breeding Bird Atlas. Our models successfully predicted ca. 75% of the 64 bird species to contract their breeding range in the future, while the remaining species (mostly southerly breeding species) were predicted to expand their breeding ranges northward. The northern margins of southerly species and southern margins of northerly species, both, predicted to shift northward. Predicted changes in range size and shifts in range centroids were broadly positively associated with the observed changes, although some species deviated markedly from the predictions. The predicted average shift in core distributions was ca. 5 km yr-1 towards the north (5% northeast, 45% north, and 40% northwest), compared to a slower observed average shift of ca. 3.9 km yr-1. Predicted changes in range centroids were generally larger than observed changes, which suggests that bird distribution changes may lag behind environmental changes leading to 'climate debt'. We suggest that predictions of SDMs should be viewed as qualitative rather than quantitative outcomes, indicating that care should be taken concerning single species. Still, our results highlight the urgent need for management actions such as wetland creation and restoration to improve wetland birds' resilience to the expected environmental changes in the future.Peer reviewe

Ecological barriers mediate spatiotemporal shifts of bird communities at a continental scale

This study was supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation (grant P2BEP3_195232) and by the Academy of Finland (project 323527 and project 329251).Species' range shifts and local extinctions caused by climate change lead to community composition changes. At large spatial scales, ecological barriers, such as biome boundaries, coastlines, and elevation, can influence a community's ability to shift in response to climate change. Yet, ecological barriers are rarely considered in climate change studies, potentially hindering predictions of biodiversity shifts. We used data from two consecutive European breeding bird atlases to calculate the geographic distance and direction between communities in the 1980s and their compositional best match in the 2010s and modeled their response to barriers. The ecological barriers affected both the distance and direction of bird community composition shifts, with coastlines and elevation having the strongest influence. Our results underscore the relevance of combining ecological barriers and community shift projections for identifying the forces hindering community adjustments under global change. Notably, due to (macro)ecological barriers, communities are not able to track their climatic niches, which may lead to drastic changes, and potential losses, in community compositions in the future.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

PRILOG POZNAVANJU FAUNE PTICA NACIONALNOG PARKA SUTJESKA

U dosadašnjim istraživanjima faune ptica Nacionalnog parka „Sutjeska“ nedostaju ili su rijetkaistraživanja duž vodenih staništa, poput planinskih vodotoka i planinskih jezera, koja su ovom prilikomdetaljnije studirana. Tokom ljeta 2015. i 2016. godine proučavana je fauna ptica duž rijeka Sutjeske iHrčavke, te na pet glacijalnih jezera. Ukupno je registrovano 78 vrsta ptica, od čega je 9 vrsta novih zanacionalni park. Od ukupno do danas registrovanih 118 vrsta, 108 su moguće, vjerovatne ili potvrđenegnjezdarice parka, a najznačajnije moguće, vjerovatne ili potvrđene gnjezdarice zabilježene u toku ovogistraživanja su dnevne grabljivice (Pernis apivorus, Circaetus gallicus, Aquila pennata, Aquila chrysaetos,Falco peregrinus), zatim prdavac (Crex crex), polojka (Actitis hypoleucos), od sova buljina (Bubo bubo), aod djetlića indikator očuvanih planinskih šuma, planinski djetlić (Dendrocopos leucotos)

Analysis of legislation in the field of conservation of animal genetic resources of the Republic of Srpska

Basic international standards that define the objectives, priorities, measures and commitments, both in conservation of biological diversity and protection of genetic resources in livestock production, i.e. protection of indigenous breeds of domestic animals, are contained in the Global Action Plan of the World Organization for Food and Agriculture (FAO) as well as in the Convention on Biological Diversity. By accession to international conventions BiH/RS pledged to establish a system of measures which will enable the conservation of biodiversity and the protection of indigenous and endangered breeds of domestic animals. Nonexistance of registry of indigenous breeds that would contain precise information on the type, numbers and locations of the cattle, made impossible taking any measures for protection of local breeds and prevention of their illegal exports, thus threatening their survival. Legislation that would regulate inventorying and protection of the gene pool does not exist yet. In the field of genetic diversity, a very small number of scientific papers and professional works have been related to indigenous species. From the aspect of preservation of animal genetic resources it is necessary, within the shortest possible time, to propose and adopt a Law on Genetic Resources of the Republic of Srpska, as well as amendments to the Livestock Act of the Republic of Srpska, and to bring programs and define rules of key importance for the management of genetic resources in livestock breeding, all in accordance with international standards

Fauna of the protected area "University City" in Banja Luka and opportunities for biocontrol of pest species

The Protected Area for Management of Resources, "University City" in Banja Luka possesses certain ecological, cultural, historical and aesthetic value, making the entire complex of buildings and park areas placed under legal protection in 2012. In addition to valuable dendroflora presented in extensive parks, tree-lines, individual valuable trees and botanical garden, during valuation and legal protection of this complex, specific faunal values have been identified. With regard to the tasks of the Plan for Management of the Protected Area, there is a need to reconcile the requirements for an arrangement, use and development of the area with the tasks related to the protection of nature, among other things, to preserve the faunal values of the complex. This imposes an increasing commitment to reduce the use of chemical agents for protection and to develop integrated management of theArea and a sustainable use of all the resources that it possesses. This paper presents the results of field research of vertebrate fauna of the Protected Area as well as some perceived ecologic characteristics of recorded species in terms of nutrition. Based on the data collected there has been 61 bird species registered along with 16 mammal species, 4 species of amphibians and 8 species of reptiles. Considering the possibilities of the biocontrol of invertebrate pests and rodents in the Protected Area, the most important potential role in biological control have 43% insectivore bird species and 16% of species of diurnal and nocturnal raptors. The mammals have been 44% insectivore species that feed on pests, and 6% of them were carnivores. As the following steps, some practical possibilities to protect the fauna, particularly useful species, and recording of invertebrate fauna should be considered

Dendroflora as the subject of protection within cultural and historical buildings

In November 2014, the study of dendroflora within the complex of two ruined villas and their forest and park environment in the Eastern part of the Republic of Srpska in Han Pijesak and Pale was conducted. The studied areas are in the zone of beech, fir and spruce forest (Piceo - Abieti - Fagetum). The King Aleksandar Karadjordjevic's residence in Han Pijesak had a clear concept of the park arrangement of the complex, devided in two zones: garden zone and the zone of natural forest. The most abundant species in the surrounding of King Aleksandar Karadjordjevic's residences are the spruce Picea abies (L.) H.Karst and European silver fir Abies alba Mill., whose large trees thogether with the trees of relict species of yew Taxus baccata L. represent an important value of the complex. Around the villa Hadžišabanović in Pale the forest of red pine, white pine and spruce was formed, while in the surrounding area of the villa, according to the current state, we can not talk about thought-out concept of garden landscaping. The devastation of both buildings due to neglect and lack of maintenance is recorded. The purpose of the research is to gain insight into the current state of the facilities and their natural and partly built environment, the other values in the vicinity of dendroflora and other biological values because of future proposals for measures of formal and practical protection. The ultimate goal is the creation of pre-defined study on the conservation area, recommendations for further action to revitalize the park complex and providing guidelines for future sustainable use of these areas and their surroundings

The future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distribution

Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, position of centroid, and margins. We fitted the SDMs with data collected for the first European Breeding Bird Atlas and climate and land-use data to predict distributional changes over a century (the 1970s–2070s). The predicted annual changes were then compared to observed annual changes in range size and range centroid over a time period of 30 years using data from the second European Breeding Bird Atlas. Our models successfully predicted ca. 75% of the 64 bird species to contract their breeding range in the future, while the remaining species (mostly southerly breeding species) were predicted to expand their breeding ranges northward. The northern margins of southerly species and southern margins of northerly species, both, predicted to shift northward. Predicted changes in range size and shifts in range centroids were broadly positively associated with the observed changes, although some species deviated markedly from the predictions. The predicted average shift in core distributions was ca. 5 km yr−1 towards the north (5% northeast, 45% north, and 40% northwest), compared to a slower observed average shift of ca. 3.9 km yr−1. Predicted changes in range centroids were generally larger than observed changes, which suggests that bird distribution changes may lag behind environmental changes leading to 'climate debt'. We suggest that predictions of SDMs should be viewed as qualitative rather than quantitative outcomes, indicating that care should be taken concerning single species. Still, our results highlight the urgent need for management actions such as wetland creation and restoration to improve wetland birds' resilience to the expected environmental changes in the future.<br/

The future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distribution

Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, position of centroid, and margins. We fitted the SDMs with data collected for the first European Breeding Bird Atlas and climate and land-use data to predict distributional changes over a century (the 1970s–2070s). The predicted annual changes were then compared to observed annual changes in range size and range centroid over a time period of 30 years using data from the second European Breeding Bird Atlas. Our models successfully predicted ca. 75% of the 64 bird species to contract their breeding range in the future, while the remaining species (mostly southerly breeding species) were predicted to expand their breeding ranges northward. The northern margins of southerly species and southern margins of northerly species, both, predicted to shift northward. Predicted changes in range size and shifts in range centroids were broadly positively associated with the observed changes, although some species deviated markedly from the predictions. The predicted average shift in core distributions was ca. 5 km yr−1 towards the north (5% northeast, 45% north, and 40% northwest), compared to a slower observed average shift of ca. 3.9 km yr−1. Predicted changes in range centroids were generally larger than observed changes, which suggests that bird distribution changes may lag behind environmental changes leading to 'climate debt'. We suggest that predictions of SDMs should be viewed as qualitative rather than quantitative outcomes, indicating that care should be taken concerning single species. Still, our results highlight the urgent need for management actions such as wetland creation and restoration to improve wetland birds' resilience to the expected environmental changes in the future