Frequency-dependent and correlational selection pressures have conflicting consequences for assortative mating in a color-polymorphic lizard, Uta stansburiana

Acknowledgments We would like to thank the numerous undergraduate researchers involved with this project for their invaluable assistance in lizard rearing and data collection. We also thank D. Haisten, A. Runemark, Y. Takahashi, and M. Verzijden for insightful comments on the manuscript. This project was funded by National Science Foundation DEBOS-15973 to A.G.M. and B.R.S.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Cooling requirements fueled the collapse of a desert bird community from climate change.

Climate change threatens global biodiversity by increasing extinction risk, yet few studies have uncovered a physiological basis of climate-driven species declines. Maintaining a stable body temperature is a fundamental requirement for homeothermic animals, and water is a vital resource that facilitates thermoregulation through evaporative cooling, especially in hot environments. Here, we explore the potential for thermoregulatory costs to underlie the community collapse of birds in the Mojave Desert over the past century in response to climate change. The probability of persistence was lowest for species occupying the warmest and driest sites, which imposed the greatest cooling costs. We developed a general model of heat flux to evaluate whether water requirements for evaporative cooling contributed to species' declines by simulating thermoregulatory costs in the Mojave Desert for 50 bird species representing the range of observed declines. Bird species' declines were positively associated with climate-driven increases in water requirements for evaporative cooling and exacerbated by large body size, especially for species with animal-based diets. Species exhibiting reductions in body size across their range saved up to 14% in cooling costs and experienced less decline than species without size reductions, suggesting total cooling costs as a mechanism underlying Bergmann's rule. Reductions in body size, however, are unlikely to offset the 50 to 78% increase in cooling costs threatening desert birds from future climate change. As climate change spreads warm, dry conditions across the planet, water requirements are increasingly likely to drive population declines, providing a physiological basis for climate-driven extinctions

Scale-free memory model for multiagent reinforcement learning. Mean field approximation and rock-paper-scissors dynamics

A continuous time model for multiagent systems governed by reinforcement learning with scale-free memory is developed. The agents are assumed to act independently of one another in optimizing their choice of possible actions via trial-and-error search. To gain awareness about the action value the agents accumulate in their memory the rewards obtained from taking a specific action at each moment of time. The contribution of the rewards in the past to the agent current perception of action value is described by an integral operator with a power-law kernel. Finally a fractional differential equation governing the system dynamics is obtained. The agents are considered to interact with one another implicitly via the reward of one agent depending on the choice of the other agents. The pairwise interaction model is adopted to describe this effect. As a specific example of systems with non-transitive interactions, a two agent and three agent systems of the rock-paper-scissors type are analyzed in detail, including the stability analysis and numerical simulation. Scale-free memory is demonstrated to cause complex dynamics of the systems at hand. In particular, it is shown that there can be simultaneously two modes of the system instability undergoing subcritical and supercritical bifurcation, with the latter one exhibiting anomalous oscillations with the amplitude and period growing with time. Besides, the instability onset via this supercritical mode may be regarded as "altruism self-organization". For the three agent system the instability dynamics is found to be rather irregular and can be composed of alternate fragments of oscillations different in their properties.Comment: 17 pages, 7 figur

Direct Fitness Correlates and Thermal Consequences of Facultative Aggregation in a Desert Lizard

Social aggregation is a common behavioral phenomenon thought to evolve through adaptive benefits to group living. Comparing fitness differences between aggregated and solitary individuals in nature – necessary to infer an evolutionary benefit to living in groups – has proven difficult because communally-living species tend to be obligately social and behaviorally complex. However, these differences and the mechanisms driving them are critical to understanding how solitary individuals transition to group living, as well as how and why nascent social systems change over time. Here we demonstrate that facultative aggregation in a reptile (the Desert Night Lizard, Xantusia vigilis) confers direct reproductive success and survival advantages and that thermal benefits of winter huddling disproportionately benefit small juveniles, which can favor delayed dispersal of offspring and the formation of kin groups. Using climate projection models, however, we estimate that future aggregation in night lizards could decline more than 50% due to warmer temperatures. Our results support the theory that transitions to group living arise from direct benefits to social individuals and offer a clear mechanism for the origin of kin groups through juvenile philopatry. The temperature dependence of aggregation in this and other taxa suggests that environmental variation may be a powerful but underappreciated force in the rapid transition between social and solitary behavior

Evolutionary instability of Zero Determinant strategies demonstrates that winning isn't everything

Zero Determinant (ZD) strategies are a new class of probabilistic and conditional strategies that are able to unilaterally set the expected payoff of an opponent in iterated plays of the Prisoner's Dilemma irrespective of the opponent's strategy, or else to set the ratio between a ZD player's and their opponent's expected payoff. Here we show that while ZD strategies are weakly dominant, they are not evolutionarily stable and will instead evolve into less coercive strategies. We show that ZD strategies with an informational advantage over other players that allows them to recognize other ZD strategies can be evolutionarily stable (and able to exploit other players). However, such an advantage is bound to be short-lived as opposing strategies evolve to counteract the recognition.Comment: 14 pages, 4 figures. Change in title (again!) to comply with Nature Communications requirements. To appear in Nature Communication

Mobility promotes and jeopardizes biodiversity in rock-paper-scissors games

Biodiversity is essential to the viability of ecological systems. Species diversity in ecosystems is promoted by cyclic, non-hierarchical interactions among competing populations. Such non-transitive relations lead to an evolution with central features represented by the `rock-paper-scissors' game, where rock crushes scissors, scissors cut paper, and paper wraps rock. In combination with spatial dispersal of static populations, this type of competition results in the stable coexistence of all species and the long-term maintenance of biodiversity. However, population mobility is a central feature of real ecosystems: animals migrate, bacteria run and tumble. Here, we observe a critical influence of mobility on species diversity. When mobility exceeds a certain value, biodiversity is jeopardized and lost. In contrast, below this critical threshold all subpopulations coexist and an entanglement of travelling spiral waves forms in the course of temporal evolution. We establish that this phenomenon is robust, it does not depend on the details of cyclic competition or spatial environment. These findings have important implications for maintenance and evolution of ecological systems and are relevant for the formation and propagation of patterns in excitable media, such as chemical kinetics or epidemic outbreaks.Comment: Final submitted version; the printed version can be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature06095 Supplementary movies are available at http://www.theorie.physik.uni-muenchen.de/lsfrey/images_content/movie1.AVI and http://www.theorie.physik.uni-muenchen.de/lsfrey/images_content/movie2.AV

Temperature drives pre-reproductive selection and shapes the biogeography of a female polymorphism

Acknowledgements We are grateful to the many field assistants, PhD students and postdocs who have participated in the field work and thereby directly and indirectly contributed to this study over many years, since 2000 when it was started. We also wish to thank David and Rosalyn Sparrow who kindly hosted B. Willink during a field trip to Cyprus in 2017 and who provided valuable field work help and guidance, enabling us to gather information about morph frequencies of I. elegans at one of the southernmost localities of this species in Europe. Funding information Funding for this study has been provided by research grants from The Swedish Research Council (VR: grant no. 2016‐03356), Carl Tryggers Foundation (CTS), Gyllenstiernska Krapperupstiftelsen (grant no. KR2018‐0038), Stina Werners Foundation and Erik Philip Sörensens Stiftelse to E.I.S.Peer reviewedPostprin

Sociobiological Control of Plasmid copy number

Background:
All known mechanisms and genes responsible for the regulation of plasmid replication lie with the plasmid rather than the chromosome. It is possible therefore that there can be copy-up mutants. Copy-up mutants will have within host selective advantage. This would eventually result into instability of bacteria-plasmid association. In spite of this possibility low copy number plasmids appear to exist stably in host populations. We examined this paradox using a computer simulation model.

Model:
Our multilevel selection model assumes a wild type with tightly regulated replication to ensure low copy number. A mutant with slightly relaxed replication regulation can act as a “cheater” or “selfish” plasmid and can enjoy a greater within-host-fitness. However the host of a cheater plasmid has to pay a greater cost. As a result, in host level competition, host cell with low copy number plasmid has a greater fitness. Furthermore, another mutant that has lost the genes required for conjugation was introduced in the model. The non-conjugal mutant was assumed to undergo conjugal transfer in the presence of another conjugal plasmid in the host cell.

Results:
The simulatons showed that if the cost of carrying a plasmid was low, the copy-up mutant could drive the wild type to extinction or very low frequencies. Consequently, another mutant with a higher copy number could invade the first invader. This process could result into an increasing copy number. However above a certain copy number within-host selection was overcompensated by host level selection leading to a rock-paper-scissor (RPS) like situation. The RPS situation allowed the coexistence of high and low copy number plasmids. The non-conjugal “hypercheaters” could further arrest the copy numbers to a substantially lower level.

Conclusions:
These sociobiological interactions might explain the stability of copy numbers better than molecular mechanisms of replication regulation alone

Determination of the Jet Energy Scale at the Collider Detector at Fermilab

A precise determination of the energy scale of jets at the Collider Detector at Fermilab at the Tevatron $p\bar{p}$ collider is described. Jets are used in many analyses to estimate the energies of partons resulting from the underlying physics process. Several correction factors are developed to estimate the original parton energy from the observed jet energy in the calorimeter. The jet energy response is compared between data and Monte Carlo simulation for various physics processes, and systematic uncertainties on the jet energy scale are determined. For jets with transverse momenta above 50 GeV the jet energy scale is determined with a 3% systematic uncertainty

Observation of Hadronic W Decays in t-tbar Events with the Collider Detector at Fermilab

We observe hadronic W decays in t-tbar -> W (-> l nu) + >= 4 jet events using a 109 pb-1 data sample of p-pbar collisions at sqrt{s} = 1.8 TeV collected with the Collider Detector at Fermilab (CDF). A peak in the dijet invariant mass distribution is obtained that is consistent with W decay and inconsistent with the background prediction by 3.3 standard deviations. From this peak we measure the W mass to be 77.2 +- 4.6 (stat+syst) GeV/c^2. This result demonstrates the presence of two W bosons in t-tbar candidates in the W (-> l nu) + >= 4 jet channel.Comment: 20 pages, 4 figures, submitted to PR