Improved power for TB phase IIa trials using a model-based pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic approach compared with commonly used analysis methods

The research leading to these results has received funding from the Swedish Research Council (grant number 521-2011-3442) in addition to the Innovative Medicines Initiative Joint Undertaking (www.imi.europe.eu) under grant agreement no. 115337, resources of which are composed of financial contribution from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007–2013) and European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations (EFPIA) companies’ in kind contribution.Background : The demand for new anti-TB drugs is high, but development programmes are long and costly. Consequently there is a need for new strategies capable of accelerating this process. Objectives : To explore the power to find statistically significant drug effects using a model-based pharmacokinetic–pharmacodynamic approach in comparison with the methods commonly used for analysing TB Phase IIa trials. Methods : Phase IIa studies of four hypothetical anti-TB drugs (labelled A, B, C and D), each with a different mechanism of action, were simulated using the multistate TB pharmacometric (MTP) model. cfu data were simulated over 14 days for patients taking once-daily monotherapy at four different doses per drug and a reference (10 mg/kg rifampicin). The simulated data were analysed using t-test, ANOVA, mono- and bi-exponential models and a pharmacokinetic–pharmacodynamic model approach (MTP model) to establish their respective power to find a drug effect at the 5% significance level. Results : For the pharmacokinetic–pharmacodynamic model approach, t-test, ANOVA, mono-exponential model and bi-exponential model, the sample sizes needed to achieve 90% power were: 10, 30, 75, 20 and 30 (drug A); 30, 75, 245, 75 and 105 (drug B); 70, >1250, 315, >1250 and >1250 (drug C); and 30, 110, 710, 170 and 185 (drug D), respectively. Conclusions : A model-based design and analysis using a pharmacokinetic–pharmacodynamic approach can reduce the number of patients required to determine a drug effect at least 2-fold compared with current methodologies. This could significantly accelerate early-phase TB drug development.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Adsorption and surface dissociation of HNCO on Pt(110) surfaces: LEED, AES, ELS and TDS studies

Bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) is a pulmonary sampling technique for characterization of drug concentrations in epithelial lining fluid and alveolar cells. Two hypothetical drugs with different pulmonary distribution rates (fast and slow) were considered. An optimized BAL sampling design was generated assuming no previous information regarding the pulmonary distribution (rate and extent) and with a maximum of two samples per subject. Simulations were performed to evaluate the impact of the number of samples per subject (1 or 2) and the sample size on the relative bias and relative root mean square error of the parameter estimates (rate and extent of pulmonary distribution). The optimized BAL sampling design depends on a characterized plasma concentration time profile, a population plasma pharmacokinetic model, the limit of quantification (LOQ) of the BAL method and involves only two BAL sample time points, one early and one late. The early sample should be taken as early as possible, where concentrations in the BAL fluid a parts per thousand yen LOQ. The second sample should be taken at a time point in the declining part of the plasma curve, where the plasma concentration is equivalent to the plasma concentration in the early sample. Using a previously described general pulmonary distribution model linked to a plasma population pharmacokinetic model, simulated data using the final BAL sampling design enabled characterization of both the rate and extent of pulmonary distribution. The optimized BAL sampling design enables characterization of both the rate and extent of the pulmonary distribution for both fast and slowly equilibrating drugs

Model-based relationship between the molecular bacterial load assay and time-to-positivity in liquid culture

The molecular bacterial load (MBL) assay is a new tuberculosis biomarker which provides results in ∼4 hours. The relationship between MBL and time-to-positivity (TTP) has not been thoroughly studied and predictive models do not exist. We aimed to develop a model for MBL and identify the MBL-TTP relationship in patients. The model was developed on data from 105 tuberculosis patients from Malawi, Mozambique and Tanzania with joint MBL and TTP observations quantified from patient sputum collected for 12 weeks. MBL was quantified using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) of mycobacterial RNA and TTP using the Mycobacterial Growth Indicator Tube (MGIT) 960 system. Treatment consisted of isoniazid, pyrazinamide and ethambutol in standard doses together with rifampicin 10 or 35 mg/kg. The developed MBL-TTP model included several linked sub-models; a component describing decline of bacterial load in sputum, another component describing growth in liquid culture and a hazard model translating bacterial growth into a TTP signal. Additional components for contaminated and negative TTP samples were included. Visual predictive checks performed using the developed model gave good description of the observed data. The model predicted greater total sample loss for TTP than MBL due to contamination and negative samples. The model detected an increase in bacterial killing for 35 versus 10 mg/kg rifampicin (p=0.002). In conclusion, a combined model for MBL and TTP was developed that described the MBL-TTP relationship. The full MBL-TTP model or each sub-model used separately. Secondly, the model can be used to predict biomarker response for MBL given TTP data or vice versa in historical or future trials.PostprintPeer reviewe

The Metaphysical Orientation towards the Other as the Foundation of the Political Idea of Community

Cilj je rada razmotriti važnost metafizike za pitanja dobra i prijateljstva kao preduvjeta društvenoga i političkoga zajedništva. Vidljivo je da je danas ideja prijateljstva ozbiljno narušena interesnim i egoističnim postulatima utemeljenima na materijalnoj egzistenciji, stoga je potrebno pitanje o egzistenciji postaviti u njezine metafizičke okvire okrenutosti prema drugomu, što je temeljni supstrat kršćanske metafizike oslonjene na Platonove i Aristotelove postulate. Rad će se usredotočiti na Platonove, Aristotelove, Augustinove i Tomine uvide kojima se otvara mogućnost mišljenja Drugoga kao preduvjeta filozofije i politike prijateljstva. Cilj je rada samo naznačiti neke odnose koji spajaju metafizičke i političke uvide o važnosti ideje dobra i prijateljstva kao preduvjeta otvorenosti prema drugima i time mogućnosti ostvarenja bilo kakvoga oblika zajedništva.The aim of this paper is to discuss the importance of metaphysics for the questions of good and friendship as preconditions for the social and political community. It is obvious that the idea of friendship today is seriously impaired by interest and egoistic postulates based on material existence, therefore, it is necessary to put the question on existence into its metaphysical frameworks of orientation towards the Other, which is the fundamental substratum of Christian metaphysics based on Plato’s and Aristotle’s postulates. The paper will focus on Plato’s, Aristotle’s, Augustine’s and Thomas’ insights which open up the possibility of thinking of the Other as a precondition of a philosophy and politics of friendship. The aim of the paper is only to indicate some relationships that connect the metaphysical and political insights about the importance of the idea of good and friendship as a precondition of openness to others and thus the possibility of achieving any form of community

Standards for model-based early bactericidal activity analysis and sample size determination in tuberculosis drug development

Background: A critical step in tuberculosis (TB) drug development is the Phase 2a early bactericidal activity (EBA) study which informs if a new drug or treatment has short-term activity in humans. The aim of this work was to present a standardized pharmacometric model-based early bactericidal activity analysis workflow and determine sample sizes needed to detect early bactericidal activity or a difference between treatment arms.Methods: Seven different steps were identified and developed for a standardized pharmacometric model-based early bactericidal activity analysis approach. Non-linear mixed effects modeling was applied and different scenarios were explored for the sample size calculations. The sample sizes needed to detect early bactericidal activity given different TTP slopes and associated variability was assessed. In addition, the sample sizes needed to detect effect differences between two treatments given the impact of different TTP slopes, variability in TTP slope and effect differences were evaluated.Results: The presented early bactericidal activity analysis approach incorporates estimate of early bactericidal activity with uncertainty through the model-based estimate of TTP slope, variability in TTP slope, impact of covariates and pharmacokinetics on drug efficacy. Further it allows for treatment comparison or dose optimization in Phase 2a. To detect early bactericidal activity with 80% power and at a 5% significance level, 13 and 8 participants/arm were required for a treatment with a TTP-EBA0-14 as low as 11 h when accounting for variability in pharmacokinetics and when variability in TTP slope was 104% [coefficient of variation (CV)] and 22%, respectively. Higher sample sizes are required for smaller early bactericidal activity and when pharmacokinetics is not accounted for. Based on sample size determinations to detect a difference between two groups, TTP slope, variability in TTP slope and effect difference between two treatment arms needs to be considered.Conclusion: In conclusion, a robust standardized pharmacometric model-based EBA analysis approach was established in close collaboration between microbiologists, clinicians and pharmacometricians. The work illustrates the importance of accounting for covariates and drug exposure in EBA analysis in order to increase the power of detecting early bactericidal activity for a single treatment arm as well as differences in EBA between treatments arms in Phase 2a trials of TB drug development

Greater early bactericidal activity at higher rifampicin doses revealed by modeling and clinical trial simulations

This work was supported by the Swedish Research Council (grant 521-2011-3442 to R. J. S. and U. S. H. S.), the Innovative Medicines Initiative Joint Undertaking (award 115337, with contribution from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme [FP7/2007–2013] and the European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations [in-kind contribution]), the European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership (awards IP.2007.32011.011, IP.2007.32011.012, and IP.2007.32011.013), the Netherlands-African Partnership for Capacity Development and Clinical Interventions Against Poverty-Related Diseases, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.Background The currently recommended rifampicin dose (10 mg/kg) for treating tuberculosis is suboptimal. The PanACEA HIGHRIF1 trial evaluated the pharmacokinetics and early bactericidal activity of rifampicin doses of up to 40 mg/kg. Conventional statistical analyses revealed no significant exposure-response relationship. Our objectives were to explore the exposure-response relationship for high-dose rifampicin by using pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modeling and to predict the early bactericidal activity of 50 mg/kg rifampicin. Methods Data included time to Mycobacterium tuberculosis positivity of liquid cultures of sputum specimens from 83 patients with tuberculosis who were treated with 10 mg/kg rifampicin (n = 8; reference arm) or 20, 25, 30, 35, or 40 mg/kg rifampicin (n = 15/arm) for 7 days. We used a semimechanistic time-to-event approach to model the time-to-positivity data. Rifampicin exposure and baseline time to culture positivity were explored as covariates. Results The baseline time to culture positivity was a significant covariate on the predicted initial bacterial load, and rifampicin exposure was a significant covariate on the bacterial kill rate in sputum resulting in increased early bactericidal activity. The 90% prediction interval for the predicted median day 7 increase in time to positivity for 50 mg/kg rifampicin was 7.25–10.3 days. Conclusions A significant exposure-response relationship was found between rifampicin exposure and early bactericidal activity. Clinical trial simulations showed greater early bactericidal activity for 50 mg/kg rifampicin.PostprintPeer reviewe

Study protocol for locoregional precision treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma with transarterial chemoembolisation (TACTida), a clinical study:idarubicin dose selection, tissue response and survival

INTRODUCTION: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a common cause of cancer-related death, often detected in the intermediate stage. The standard of care for intermediate-stage HCC is transarterial chemoembolisation (TACE), where idarubicin (IDA) is a promising drug. Despite the fact that TACE has been used for several decades, treatment success is unpredictable. This clinical trial has been designed believing that further improvement might be achieved by increasing the understanding of interactions between local pharmacology, tumour targeting, HCC pathophysiology, metabolomics and molecular mechanisms of drug resistance. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The study population of this single-centre clinical trial consists of adults with intermediate-stage HCC. Each tumour site will receive TACE with two different IDA doses, 10 and 15 mg, on separate occasions. Before and after each patient's first TACE blood samples, tissue and liquid biopsies, and positron emission tomography (PET)/MRI will be performed. Blood samples will be used for pharmacokinetics (PK) and liver function evaluation. Tissue biopsies will be used for histopathology analyses, and culturing of primary organoids of tumour and non-tumour tissue to measure cell viability, drug response, multiomics and gene expression. Multiomics analyses will also be performed on liquid biopsies. PET/MRI will be used to evaluate tumour viability and liver metabolism. The two doses of IDA will be compared regarding PK, antitumour effects and safety. Imaging, molecular biology and multiomics data will be used to identify HCC phenotypes and their relation to drug uptake and metabolism, treatment response and survival. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Participants give informed consent. Personal data are deidentified. A patient will be withdrawn from the study if considered medically necessary, or if it is the wish of the patient. The study has been approved by the Swedish Ethical Review Authority (Dnr. 2021-01928) and by the Medical Product Agency, Uppsala, Sweden. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: EudraCT number: 2021-001257-31

The potential for treatment shortening with higher rifampicin doses : relating drug exposure to treatment response in patients with pulmonary tuberculosis

This work was supported by the European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials partnership (grants IP.2007.32011.011, IP.2007.32011.012, and IP.2007.32011.013) and the German Ministry for Education and Research (grant 01KA0901). The original study conducted within the PanACEA consortium.Background: Tuberculosis remains a huge public health problem and the prolonged treatment duration obstructs effective tuberculosis control. Higher rifampicin doses have been associated with better bactericidal activity, but optimal dosing is uncertain. This analysis aimed to characterize the relationship between rifampicin plasma exposure and treatment response over 6 months in a recent study investigating the potential for treatment shortening with high-dose rifampicin. Methods: Data were analyzed from 336 patients with pulmonary tuberculosis (97 with pharmacokinetic data) treated with rifampicin doses of 10, 20, or 35 mg/kg. The response measure was time to stable sputum culture conversion (TSCC). We derived individual exposure metrics with a previously developed population pharmacokinetic model of rifampicin. TSCC was modeled using a parametric time-to-event approach, and a sequential exposure-response analysis was performed. Results: Higher rifampicin exposures increased the probability of early culture conversion. No maximal limit of the effect was detected within the observed range. The expected proportion of patients with stable culture conversion on liquid medium at week 8 was predicted to increase from 39% (95% confidence interval, 37%-41%) to 55% (49%-61%), with the rifampicin area under the curve increasing from 20 to 175 mg/L·h (representative for 10 and 35 mg/kg, respectively). Other predictors of TSCC were baseline bacterial load, proportion of culture results unavailable, and substitution of ethambutol for either moxifloxacin or SQ109. Conclusions: Increasing rifampicin exposure shortened TSCC, and the effect did not plateau, indicating that doses >35 mg/kg could be yet more effective. Optimizing rifampicin dosage while preventing toxicity is a clinical priority.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe