La convergence réelle selon la Théorie de la Croissance: Quelles explications pour l’Union Européenne?

L'Union Européenne est toujours et restera sûrement pendant quelque temps (avec l'élargissement) un groupe de pays marqué par des différences importantes dans les niveaux de revenu. Bien que les pays européens du Sud, qui dans les années 50 étaient classés par la Banque Mondiale comme des pays en voie de développement, fassent maintenant partie du monde développé, la vérité est qu’ils sont encore loin d’atteindre les niveaux de revenu de leur contre-partie nordique. Il semble alors que comprendre le processus de convergence réelle qui s'est produit en Europe, soit tout à fait important et puisse être utile dans un proche avenir. La Théorie Néoclassique de la Croissance peut nous aider à étudier la convergence réelle dans l'UE. Il semble y avoir deux explications qui s’opposent: pour les théoriciens de la croissance exogène, la convergence existe et est due à des productivités marginales décroissantes des facteurs; pour les théoriciens de la croissance endogène, il peut n’y avoir aucune convergence. Après avoir présenté brièvement ces deux approches théoriques, nous évaluerons l'hypothèse de convergence pour les quinze Etats membres entre 1960 et 1990 en utilisant des données en cross section et en séries temporelles et nous vérifierons s' il y a eu convergence due aux rendements décroissants. En plus de l’obtention de résultats qui supportent l’hypothèse de la convergence, nous essaierons également de définir quelques mesures de politique économique qui, selon la théorie de la croissance, doivent stimuler la convergence des Etats membres, présents et futurs.The European Union is still and will probably remain for sometime (with the enlargement) a group of countries with important differences in income levels. Although the southern european countries, which in the 50’s were classified by the World Bank as developing countries, are now part of the developed world, the truth is that they are still far from reaching the income levels of their northern counterparts. It seems then that understanding some of the real convergence process that has occurred in Europe is quite important and can be of use in the near future. The Neoclassical Theory of Growth can help us study real convergence in the EU. Here there seems to be two opposing explanations: for exogenous growth theorists convergence exists and is due to diminishing marginal productivities to inputs; for endogenous growth theorists there can be no convergence. After presenting briefly both theories we test the convergence hypothesis for the 15 member states between 1960 and 1990 using both cross section and time series data and verify if there has been convergence due to diminishing returns. In the presence of results that support the convergence hypoyhesis we also try to establish some economic policy measures that, according to the Theory of Growth, can stimulate convergence between present and future member states.A União Europeia é constituída por países que apresentam diferenciais de níveis de rendimento per capita significativos. Esta situação vai permanecer ainda durante alguns anos e agravar-se-á com o alargamento. Apesar dos países do Sul terem registado taxas de crescimento notáveis nas últimas décadas, podendo ser já classificados como países desenvolvidos, ao contrário do que acontecia na década de 50, a verdade é que o seu rendimento per capita fica ainda muito aquém do dos países do Norte. Tentar perceber se há ou não convergência real no seio da União Europeia e quais as suas causas é assim de extrema importância no contexto actual. Através da Teoria Neoclássica do Crescimento é possível analisar o processo de convergência real na UE. Esta oferece-nos contudo dois tipos de análises, aparentemente contradiórias. A Teoria do Crescimento Exógeno defende a existência de convergência real entre grupos de países na presença de produtividades marginais decrescentes dos factores. A Teoria do Crescimento Endógeno nega a existência de convergência. Depois de uma breve apresentação de ambas as teorias testa-se a hipótese de convergência real para os quinze estados-membros da UE entre 1960 e 1990 com base quer em dados seccionais quer em dados cronológicos. Dado que os resultados apoiam a hipótese de convergência são então propostas algumas medidas de política económica que podem, de acordo com a Teoria do Crescimento, estimular a convergência real entre os actuias e futuros estados-membros

Le rôle de l’investissement dans l’éducation sur la croissance selon différentes spécifications du capital humain: une étude appliquée à l’échantillon de pays riverains de la Méditerranée

Notre objectif principal est tester l’importance de l’investissement en capital humain/éducation comme variable explicative du niveau de productivité d’équilibre d’état stationnaire et du processus de convergence potentiel des pays de nos deux échantillons (8 pays riverains de la Méditerranée: l’Algérie, l’Egypte, la Chypre, l’Israël, le Malte, la Syrie, la Tunisie, la Turquie; ces pays-là plus les pays de l’UE ) tout en contrôlant la qualité de la proxy du capital humain. En effet, la plus part des études de croissance qui incluent la variable capital humain utilisent comme proxy le nombre moyen des années de scolarité, or cette proxy se heurte à un certain nombre de critiques. Elle ne tient pas en compte l’hypothèse de rendements décroissants dans le secteur éducatif ni la différente qualité des différents systèmes éducatifs. Ainsi nous utiliserons une des proxies mentionnée par Wössmann (2000), une spécification à la Mincer du capital humain avec des rendements décroissants. Notre cadre d’analyse a comme point de départ un modèle de croissance exogène, néoclassique, unisectoriel avec capital humain du type Mankiw, Romer et Weil (1992). Les équations de productivité et de convergence serons estimées selon plusieurs méthodes économétriques.Our main goal is to ascertain the importance of human capital accumulation through education for the long run steady state productivity levels and a potential convergence process in two samples (8 Mediterranean countries: Algeria, Egypt, Cyprus, Israel, Malta, Syria, Tunisia, Turkey; the former countries plus 17 European countries) controlling for the quality of the human capital proxy. Most of the economic growth studies consider as a proxy for human capital the average schooling years of the population. But this proxy presents several problems. One of these problems is the fact that it does not take into account the diminishing returns to education nor the quality of the different educational systems. In order to take this into account we are going to use a proxy mentioned by Wössmann (2000). We depart from a neoclassical growth model like that of Mankiw, Romer and Weil (1992). The different equations will be estimated using different estimation procedures

Identifying the research, advocacy, policy and implementation needs for the prevention and management of respiratory syncytial virus lower respiratory tract infection in low- and middle-income countries

Introduction: The high burden of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection in young children disproportionately occurs in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The PROUD (Preventing RespiratOry syncytial virUs in unDerdeveloped countries) Taskforce of 24 RSV worldwide experts assessed key needs for RSV prevention in LMICs, including vaccine and newer preventive measures. Methods: A global, survey-based study was undertaken in 2021. An online questionnaire was developed following three meetings of the Taskforce panellists wherein factors related to RSV infection, its prevention and management were identified using iterative questioning. Each factor was scored, by non-panellists interested in RSV, on a scale of zero (very-low-relevance) to 100 (very-high-relevance) within two scenarios: (1) Current and (2) Future expectations for RSV management. Results: Ninety questionnaires were completed: 70 by respondents (71.4% physicians; 27.1% researchers/scientists) from 16 LMICs and 20 from nine high-income (HI) countries (90.0% physicians; 5.0% researchers/scientists), as a reference group. Within LMICs, RSV awareness was perceived to be low, and management was not prioritised. Of the 100 factors scored, those related to improved diagnosis particularly access to affordable point-of-care diagnostics, disease burden data generation, clinical and general education, prompt access to new interventions, and engagement with policymakers/payers were identified of paramount importance. There was a strong need for clinical education and local data generation in the lowest economies, whereas upper-middle income countries were more closely aligned with HI countries in terms of current RSV service provision. Conclusion: Seven key actions for improving RSV prevention and management in LMICs are proposed

Reducing the environmental impact of surgery on a global scale: systematic review and co-prioritization with healthcare workers in 132 countries

Abstract Background Healthcare cannot achieve net-zero carbon without addressing operating theatres. The aim of this study was to prioritize feasible interventions to reduce the environmental impact of operating theatres. Methods This study adopted a four-phase Delphi consensus co-prioritization methodology. In phase 1, a systematic review of published interventions and global consultation of perioperative healthcare professionals were used to longlist interventions. In phase 2, iterative thematic analysis consolidated comparable interventions into a shortlist. In phase 3, the shortlist was co-prioritized based on patient and clinician views on acceptability, feasibility, and safety. In phase 4, ranked lists of interventions were presented by their relevance to high-income countries and low–middle-income countries. Results In phase 1, 43 interventions were identified, which had low uptake in practice according to 3042 professionals globally. In phase 2, a shortlist of 15 intervention domains was generated. In phase 3, interventions were deemed acceptable for more than 90 per cent of patients except for reducing general anaesthesia (84 per cent) and re-sterilization of ‘single-use’ consumables (86 per cent). In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for high-income countries were: introducing recycling; reducing use of anaesthetic gases; and appropriate clinical waste processing. In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for low–middle-income countries were: introducing reusable surgical devices; reducing use of consumables; and reducing the use of general anaesthesia. Conclusion This is a step toward environmentally sustainable operating environments with actionable interventions applicable to both high– and low–middle–income countries

Levels of education, technology and growth : the OECD evidence from a country and industry-level perspective

Tese de doutoramento em Economia, especialização em Desenvolvimento e Política Económica apresentada à Fac. de Economia de CoimbraEsta dissertação é uma investigação empírica dos mecanismos de transmissão dos investimentos em educação e suas categorias em termos de crescimento da produtividade para um conjunto de países da OCDE, utilizando dados em painel. Para tal propomos uma especificação empírica que corresponde a uma versão corrigida e aumentada da especificação proposta por Benhabib e Spieged (1994) para o estudo do papel do capital humano no crescimento económico, onde se realçam as interligações da educação com outros determinantes das actividades de inovação e imitação propostos pela literatura, a Investigação e Desenvolvimento (IeD), o comércio internacional e o Investimento Directo Estrangeiro (IDE). Conhecendo melhor os mecanismos de transmissão dos investimentos em educação em termos de crescimento da produtividade é possível derivar predições de políticas de educação mais rigorosas uma vez que as economias alcançarão maiores benefícios com a coordenação das diferentes reformas ao invés de se concentrarem em cada política isoladamente. Os resultados da análise de um conjunto de vinte e três países da OCDE, ao longo das quatro últimas décadas do século XX, confirmam o papel fundamental da educação em termos de assimilação da tecnologia desenvolvida no exterior e a complementaridade da educação ao nível dos ensinos secundário e superior com as despesas de IeD. Ao analisarmos a relação ao nível mais desagregado de quinze indústrias transformadoras de onze países da OCDE entre 1981 e 2000, concluímos que a influência dos diferentes níveis de escolaridade varia de acordo com a intensidade tecnológica das diferentes indústrias. Por último, examinam-se os potenciais benefícios da educação para o crescimento da produtividade de catorze indústrias transformadoras portuguesas entre 1986 e 1997, não tendo os resultados obtidos revelado qualquer influência da educação via produção de conhecimento, resumindo-se o seu impacto a uma influência positiva ao nível do ensino secundário via a assimilação da tecnologia incorporada nas importações

Discrimination des facteurs potentiels de croissance et type de convergence de l’économie portugaise dans l’UE à travers la spécification de la fonction de production macro-économique. Une étude appliquée de données de panel et de séries temporelles

Cette communication s’inscrit au sein d’une recherche plus élargie que nous sommes en train de développer sur les facteurs de la croissance, en spécial le capital humain, Duarte&Simões 2000, 2001(a), 2001(b) et 2001(c). Dans cette communication, notre objectif principal est la caractérisation des facteurs potentiels de croissance et du type de convergence potentielle de l’économie portugaise au sein de l’UE. Nous allons tester la spécification de la fonction de production (FP) selon la méthodologie de Duffy&Papageorgiou (2000). Nous voulons savoir quelle est la spécification la plus correcte de la FP, CES ou Cobb-Douglas, pour notre échantillon. L’étude de cette question est très importante car il y a une variété plus riche de types de croissance associés à la technologie CES. Ainsi, si l’élasticité de substitution est supérieure à l’unité (s>1) il y a croissance endogène potentielle, Jones&Manuelli (1990), Rebelo (1991). Dans le cas opposé (s <1), il y a la possibilité d’équilibres multiples, Azariadis (1993, 1996, 2001). Cette méthodologie présente donc l’avantage de permettre que les facteurs de croissance et le type de convergence soient discriminés de façon potentielle. Nous avons considéré un échantillon avec 17 pays européens (l’Autriche, la Belgique, le Danemark, la Finlande, la France, la République Fédérale d’Allemagne, la Grèce, l’Irlande, l’Italie, les Pays-Bas, la Norvège, le Portugal, l’Espagne, la Suède, la Suisse, le Royaume-Uni et l’Islande). Dans toutes les analyses empiriques réalisées, nous avons ordonné les 17 pays par ordre croissant de revenu moyen par travailleur de la période. L’analyse empirique se fonde sur des données en panel et des séries temporelles pour la période de 1960-1987 et la base de données est la base STARS de la Banque Mondiale. L’analyse de la stationnarité des séries temporelles utilisées dans la CES, version non linéaire et linéaire a été faite utilisant des méthodes d’analyse des séries temporelles et des séries temporelles en panel. La FP CES dans les versions non-linéaire et linéaire de Kmenta est estimée pour a) l’échantillon des 17 pays, b) pour l’échantillon de 4 pays (le Portugal, la Grèce, l’Islande et l’Irlande) et pour chaque pays individuellement et selon les deux cas: avec force de travail et avec force de travail ajustée par le nombre moyen d’années de scolarité de la force de travail, la proxy du capital humain. L’estimation de la FP par groupes de pays permet la caractérisation de la FP du groupe par rapport à celle de l’économie moyenne. Et permet aussi l’analyse de la valeur de s en fonction du niveau de développement des pays. Au-delà de l’étude des caractéristiques de stationnarité (racine unitaire) des séries temporelles et des données de panel, nous utiliserons des méthodes d’estimation non-linéaires par maximum vraisemblance et aussi GMM. Nous avons aussi utilisé des méthodes linéaires, moindres carrés généralisés avec des effets individuels et cointégration. Pour les estimations, on a utilisé RATS 5.00, PCGive 10 et NPT 1.3 (Kao&Chiang). Les résultats obtenus montrent qu’on ne peut pas rejeter la CES pour les pays de notre échantillon, cela signifie que la croissance endogène est possible car s>1, cependant les caractéristiques des séries ne permettent pas l’exclusion du problème de régressions fallacieuses

Le rôle de l’investissement dans l’éducation sur la croissance selon différentes spécifications du capital humain: une étude appliquée à l’échantillon de pays riverains de la Méditerranée

Notre objectif principal est tester l’importance de l’investissement en capital humain/éducation comme variable explicative du niveau de productivité d’équilibre d’état stationnaire et du processus de convergence potentiel des pays de nos deux échantillons (8 pays riverains de la Méditerranée: l’Algérie, l’Egypte, la Chypre, l’Israël, le Malte, la Syrie, la Tunisie, la Turquie; ces pays-là plus les pays de l’UE ) tout en contrôlant la qualité de la proxy du capital humain. En effet, la plus part des études de croissance qui incluent la variable capital humain utilisent comme proxy le nombre moyen des années de scolarité, or cette proxy se heurte à un certain nombre de critiques. Elle ne tient pas en compte l’hypothèse de rendements décroissants dans le secteur éducatif ni la différente qualité des différents systèmes éducatifs. Ainsi nous utiliserons une des proxies mentionnée par Wössmann (2000), une spécification à la Mincer du capital humain avec des rendements décroissants. Notre cadre d’analyse a comme point de départ un modèle de croissance exogène, néoclassique, unisectoriel avec capital humain du type Mankiw, Romer et Weil (1992). Les équations de productivité et de convergence serons estimées selon plusieurs méthodes économétriques.Our main goal is to ascertain the importance of human capital accumulation through education for the long run steady state productivity levels and a potential convergence process in two samples (8 Mediterranean countries: Algeria, Egypt, Cyprus, Israel, Malta, Syria, Tunisia, Turkey; the former countries plus 17 European countries) controlling for the quality of the human capital proxy. Most of the economic growth studies consider as a proxy for human capital the average schooling years of the population. But this proxy presents several problems. One of these problems is the fact that it does not take into account the diminishing returns to education nor the quality of the different educational systems. In order to take this into account we are going to use a proxy mentioned by Wössmann (2000). We depart from a neoclassical growth model like that of Mankiw, Romer and Weil (1992). The different equations will be estimated using different estimation procedures

Human Capital Investment Through Education and Economic Growth: a panel data analysis based on a group of Latin American countries

Our main goal is to ascertain whether investment in human capital through education (without differentiation, by gender, with gender gaps) can explain the steady state growth productivity levels and a potential convergence process in a sample of Latin American developing countries (Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Trinidad&Tobago, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela). These countries will also be integrated in a larger sample with developed countries from Europe (Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, the former Federal Republic of Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom). We consider a neoclassical growth model with human capital as did Mankiw, Romer and Weil (1992) and later Knowles, Lorgelly and Owen (1998) who include both female and male education and gender gaps in education levels as explanatory variables. The consideration of human capital by gender and the quantification of its influence appear of major importance in the developing countries if the education of women in these countries produces positive social benefits. In these circumstances the educational policies by gender should be supported because, ceteris paribus, an increase in the levels of female schooling will produce positive total effects in the form of higher productivity levels. The empirical analysis is based on panel data and the following estimation procedures are used: ordinary least squares (OLS), non linear least squares (NLLS), ordinary least squares with dummy variables (LSDV), ordinary least squares with first differences (OLSD) and non linear least squares with dummy variables (NLLSDV). We first present the results for the productivity equations and then for the convergence equations, considering our two samples and the different estimation procedures. The use of different samples and estimation techniques is intended to make our analysis more robust.O nosso objectivo principal consiste em verificar se a acumulação de capital humano através da educação (sem diferenciação, de acordo com o género e com gender gaps) influencia o nível de produtividade e um eventual processo de convergência de um conjunto de países em desenvolvimento da América Latina (Costa Rica, República Dominicana, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, México, Nicarágua, Panamá, Trinidade&Tobago, Argentina, Bolívia, Brasil, Chile, Colômbia, Equador, Guiana, Paraguai, Peru, Uruguai e Venezuela). Consideraremos esta questão também no âmbito de um grupo mais alargado de países que inclui os anteriores e ainda um grupo de países desenvolvidos da Europa (Áustria, Bélgica, Dinamarca, Finlândia, França, RFA, Grécia, Irlanda, Itália, Países Baixos, Noruega, Portugal, Espanha, Suécia, Suíça e Reino Unido). Partimos de um modelo de crescimento neoclássico tal como Mankiw, Romer e Weil (1992) e Knowles, Lorgelly e Owen (1998). Estes últimos consideram a influência quer da educação masculina quer da educação feminina e da diferença entre ambos como variáveis explicativas. Esta distinção parece-nos de grande importância para os países desenvolvidos no caso de existência de benefícios sociais positivos associados à educação das mulheres. Nestas circunstâncias são aconselháveis políticas de educação de acordo com o sexo uma vez que, ceteris paribus, um aumento do nível de escolaridade feminina acarretará feitos totais positivos na forma de níveis de produtividade mais elevados. A análise empírica baseia-se em dados de painel tendo-se utilizado os seguintes métodos de estimação: mínimos quadrados ordinários, mínimos quadrados não lineares, mínimos quadrados com variáveis mudas, mínimos quadrados aplicados à diferenças e mínimos quadrados não lineares com variáveis mudas. Co meçamos por apresentar os resultados relativos às equações de produtividade e em seguida apresentamos os resultados relativos às equações de convergência. A utilização de diferentes amostras e métodos de estimação destina-se a tornar a nossa análise mais robusta

A Especificação da Função de Produção Macro-Económica em Estudos de Crescimento Económico: uma análise com dados em painel aplicada a um grupo de países europeus

Esta comunicação insere-se numa investigação mais vasta que temos vindo a desenvolver sobre as causas do crescimento económico no seio da Europa. Para este efeito estimámos equações de convergência num quadro de crescimento neoclássico com capital humano. Em todos estes estudos a especificação considerada como representativa da tecnologia das economias da nossa amostra foi a função de produção agregada do tipo Cobb-Douglas. Contudo, a questão prévia que se poderia colocar a estes nossos trabalhos é a de saber se uma função de produção agregada do tipo CES não representaria de forma mais correcta a tecnologia dos países considerados. Em caso afirmativo, haverá possibilidade de crescimento endógeno no caso da elasticidade de substituição ser superior à unidade. Os nosso resultados com base numa amostra de dezassete países europeus entre 1960 e 1987 apontam para a não rejeição da função CES como mais correcta em termos de representação da tecnologia da nossa amostra, o que implica crescimento endógeno na Europa. Por outro lado, considerando individualmente cada país é possível identificar à partida factores promotores da convergência (ou divergência). Neste caso, os resultados apontam para algumas desvantagens dos já inicialmente mais desfavorecidos, Portugal, Grécia, Espanha e Irlanda.This study is part of a larger research project that tries to identify the sources of economic growth among European countries. With this goal in mind we tested convergence equations derived from a neoclassical growth model with human capital. These kind of empirical studies consider that a country’s technology is best represented by a Cobb-Douglas aggregate production function. However we should ask ourselves if this is indeed the right hypothesis. Wouldn’t a CES production function describe better the technology of our countries since the Cobb-Douglas technology is a special case of the former? This is what we try to find out in this study. An affirmative answer to this question bears important implications for economic growth since a CES production function allows for endogenous growth in a neoclassical framework if the elasticity is greater than one. We tested this hypothesis using panel data for seventeen European countries between 1960 and 1987 and we were not able to reject the CES function as the one that best represents our sample technology. This means endogenous growth for the European countries. As for convergence, a more detailed analysis of the estimated parameters seems to show that the initially poorer countries like Portugal, Greece and Spain, will not reach the income levels of the richer countries

Distinguishing between potential sources of growth convergence for the Portuguese economy within the EU. A panel data - time series study of the aggregate production function

What are the potential sources of growth and how is the convergence process of the Portuguese economy within the EU characterised? We answer this question by determining the most suitable specification of the aggregate production function, CES or Cobb-Douglas, for the EU countries as in Duffy&Papageorgiou (2000). If the aggregate production technology is best described by a CES production function then the potential sources of growth are wider than the ones associated with a Cobb-Douglas technology. For instance, with an elasticity of substitution between inputs greater than one (ó>1) it is possible to have endogenous growth (see Jones&Manuelli (1990), Rebelo (1991)) while for ó1, it is possible to have endogenous growth although the characterisation of our series does not allow us to ignore the spurious regression problem