Sensitivity of South American tropical forests to an extreme climate anomaly

The tropical forest carbon sink is known to be drought sensitive, but it is unclear which forests are the most vulnerable to extreme events. Forests with hotter and drier baseline conditions may be protected by prior adaptation, or more vulnerable because they operate closer to physiological limits. Here we report that forests in drier South American climates experienced the greatest impacts of the 2015–2016 El Niño, indicating greater vulnerability to extreme temperatures and drought. The long-term, ground-measured tree-by-tree responses of 123 forest plots across tropical South America show that the biomass carbon sink ceased during the event with carbon balance becoming indistinguishable from zero (−0.02 ± 0.37 Mg C ha −1 per year). However, intact tropical South American forests overall were no more sensitive to the extreme 2015–2016 El Niño than to previous less intense events, remaining a key defence against climate change as long as they are protected

Sensitivity of South American tropical forests to an extreme climate anomaly

NERC Knowledge Exchange Fellowship (NE/V018760/1) to E.N.H.C.The tropical forest carbon sink is known to be drought sensitive, but it is unclear which forests are the most vulnerable to extreme events. Forests with hotter and drier baseline conditions may be protected by prior adaptation, or more vulnerable because they operate closer to physiological limits. Here we report that forests in drier South American climates experienced the greatest impacts of the 2015–2016 El Niño, indicating greater vulnerability to extreme temperatures and drought. The long-term, ground-measured tree-by-tree responses of 123 forest plots across tropical South America show that the biomass carbon sink ceased during the event with carbon balance becoming indistinguishable from zero (−0.02 ± 0.37 Mg C ha−1 per year). However, intact tropical South American forests overall were no more sensitive to the extreme 2015–2016 El Niño than to previous less intense events, remaining a key defence against climate change as long as they are protected.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Global trait:environment relationships of plant communities

Abstract Plant functional traits directly affect ecosystem functions. At the species level, trait combinations depend on trade-offs representing different ecological strategies, but at the community level trait combinations are expected to be decoupled from these trade-offs because different strategies can facilitate co-existence within communities. A key question is to what extent community-level trait composition is globally filtered and how well it is related to global versus local environmental drivers. Here, we perform a global, plot-level analysis of trait–environment relationships, using a database with more than 1.1 million vegetation plots and 26,632 plant species with trait information. Although we found a strong filtering of 17 functional traits, similar climate and soil conditions support communities differing greatly in mean trait values. The two main community trait axes that capture half of the global trait variation (plant stature and resource acquisitiveness) reflect the trade-offs at the species level but are weakly associated with climate and soil conditions at the global scale. Similarly, within-plot trait variation does not vary systematically with macro-environment. Our results indicate that, at fine spatial grain, macro-environmental drivers are much less important for functional trait composition than has been assumed from floristic analyses restricted to co-occurrence in large grid cells. Instead, trait combinations seem to be predominantly filtered by local-scale factors such as disturbance, fine-scale soil conditions, niche partitioning and biotic interactions

Sensitivity of South American tropical forests to an extreme climate anomaly

Funder: A Moore Foundation grant, Royal Society Global Challenges grant (Sensitivity of Tropical Forest Ecosystem Services to Climate Changes), CNPq grants (441282/2016-4, 403764/2012-2 and 558244/2009-2), FAPEAM grants 1600/2006, 465/2010 and PPFOR 147/2015, CNPq grants 473308/2009-6 and 558320/2009-0. European Research Council (ERC Advanced Grant 291585 – ‘T-FORCES’), the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation (#1656 ‘RAINFOR’, and ‘MonANPeru’), the European Union’s Fifth, Sixth and Seventh Framework Programme (EVK2-CT-1999-00023 – ‘CARBONSINK-LBA’, 283080 – ‘GEOCARBON’, 282664 – ‘AMAZALERT), the Natural Environment Research Council (NE/ D005590/1 – ‘TROBIT’, NE/F005806/1 – ‘AMAZONICA’, E/M0022021/1 - ‘PPFOR’), several NERC Urgency and New Investigators Grants, the NERC/State of São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP) consortium grants ‘BIO-RED’ (NE/N012542/1), ‘ECOFOR’ (NE/K016431/1, 2012/51872-5, 2012/51509-8), ‘ARBOLES’ (NE/S011811/1, FAPESP 2018/15001-6), ‘SEOSAW’ (NE/P008755/1), ‘SECO’ (NE/T01279X/1), Brazilian National Research Council (PELD/CNPq 403710/2012-0), the Royal Society (University Research Fellowships and Global challenges Awards) (ICA/R1/180100 - ‘FORAMA’), the National Geographic Society, US National Science Foundation (DEB 1754647) and Colombia’s Colciencias. We thank the National Council for Science and Technology Development of Brazil (CNPq) for support to the Cerrado/Amazonia Transition Long-Term Ecology Project (PELD/441244/2016-5), the PPBio Phytogeography of Amazonia/Cerrado Transition Project (CNPq/PPBio/457602/2012-0), PELD-RAS (CNPq, Process 441659/2016-0), RESFLORA (Process 420254/2018-8), Synergize (Process 442354/2019-3), the Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária – Embrapa (SEG: 02.08.06.005.00), the Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo – FAPESP (2012/51509-8 and 2012/51872-5), the Goiás Research Foundation (FAPEG/PELD: 2017/10267000329) the EcoSpace Project (CNPq 459941/2014-3) and several PVE and Productivity Grants. We also thank the “Investissement d’Avenir” program (CEBA, ref. ANR-10LABX-25-01), the São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP 03/12595-7) and the Sustainable Landscapes Brazil Project (through Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (EMBRAPA), the US Forest Service, USAID, and the US Department of State) for supporting plot inventories in the Atlantic Forest sites in Sao Paulo, Brazil. L.E.O.C.A. was supported by CNPq (processes 305054/2016-3 and 442371/2019-5). We thank to the National Council for Technological and Scientific Development (CNPq) for the financial support of the PELD project (441244/2016-5, 441572/2020-0) and FAPEMAT (0346321/2021). NE/B503384/1, NE/N012542/1 - ‘BIO-RED’, ERC Advanced Grant 291585 - ‘T-FORCES’, NE/F005806/1 - ‘AMAZONICA’, NE/N004655/1 - ‘TREMOR’, NERC New Investigators Awards, the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation (‘RAINFOR’, ‘MonANPeru’), ERC Starter Grant 758873 -‘TreeMort’, EU Framework 6, a Royal Society University Research Fellowship, and a Leverhulme Trust Research Fellowship.The tropical forest carbon sink is known to be drought sensitive, but it is unclear which forests are the most vulnerable to extreme events. Forests with hotter and drier baseline conditions may be protected by prior adaptation, or more vulnerable because they operate closer to physiological limits. Here we report that forests in drier South American climates experienced the greatest impacts of the 2015–2016 El Niño, indicating greater vulnerability to extreme temperatures and drought. The long-term, ground-measured tree-by-tree responses of 123 forest plots across tropical South America show that the biomass carbon sink ceased during the event with carbon balance becoming indistinguishable from zero (−0.02 ± 0.37 Mg C ha−1 per year). However, intact tropical South American forests overall were no more sensitive to the extreme 2015–2016 El Niño than to previous less intense events, remaining a key defence against climate change as long as they are protected

Water table depth modulates productivity and biomass across Amazonian forests

Aim: Water availability is the major driver of tropical forest structure and dynamics. Most research has focused on the impacts of climatic water availability, whereas remarkably little is known about the influence of water table depth and excess soil water on forest processes. Nevertheless, given that plants take up water from the soil, the impacts of climatic water supply on plants are likely to be modulated by soil water conditions. Location: Lowland Amazonian forests. Time period: 1971–2019. Methods: We used 344 long-term inventory plots distributed across Amazonia to analyse the effects of long-term climatic and edaphic water supply on forest functioning. We modelled forest structure and dynamics as a function of climatic, soil-water and edaphic properties. Results: Water supplied by both precipitation and groundwater affects forest structure and dynamics, but in different ways. Forests with a shallow water table (depth <5 m) had 18% less above-ground woody productivity and 23% less biomass stock than forests with a deep water table. Forests in drier climates (maximum cumulative water deficit < −160 mm) had 21% less productivity and 24% less biomass than those in wetter climates. Productivity was affected by the interaction between climatic water deficit and water table depth. On average, in drier climates the forests with a shallow water table had lower productivity than those with a deep water table, with this difference decreasing within wet climates, where lower productivity was confined to a very shallow water table. Main conclusions: We show that the two extremes of water availability (excess and deficit) both reduce productivity in Amazon upland (terra-firme) forests. Biomass and productivity across Amazonia respond not simply to regional climate, but rather to its interaction with water table conditions, exhibiting high local differentiation. Our study disentangles the relative contribution of those factors, helping to improve understanding of the functioning of tropical ecosystems and how they are likely to respond to climate change

Water table depth modulates productivity and biomass across Amazonian forests

Aim: Water availability is the major driver of tropical forest structure and dynamics. Most research has focused on the impacts of climatic water availability, whereas remarkably little is known about the influence of water table depth and excess soil water on forest processes. Nevertheless, given that plants take up water from the soil, the impacts of climatic water supply on plants are likely to be modulated by soil water conditions. Location: Lowland Amazonian forests. Time period: 1971–2019. Methods: We used 344 long-term inventory plots distributed across Amazonia to analyse the effects of long-term climatic and edaphic water supply on forest functioning. We modelled forest structure and dynamics as a function of climatic, soil-water and edaphic properties. Results: Water supplied by both precipitation and groundwater affects forest structure and dynamics, but in different ways. Forests with a shallow water table (depth <5 m) had 18% less above-ground woody productivity and 23% less biomass stock than forests with a deep water table. Forests in drier climates (maximum cumulative water deficit < −160 mm) had 21% less productivity and 24% less biomass than those in wetter climates. Productivity was affected by the interaction between climatic water deficit and water table depth. On average, in drier climates the forests with a shallow water table had lower productivity than those with a deep water table, with this difference decreasing within wet climates, where lower productivity was confined to a very shallow water table. Main conclusions: We show that the two extremes of water availability (excess and deficit) both reduce productivity in Amazon upland (terra-firme) forests. Biomass and productivity across Amazonia respond not simply to regional climate, but rather to its interaction with water table conditions, exhibiting high local differentiation. Our study disentangles the relative contribution of those factors, helping to improve understanding of the functioning of tropical ecosystems and how they are likely to respond to climate change

Water table depth modulates productivity and biomass across Amazonian forests

International audienceAim: Water availability is the major driver of tropical forest structure and dynamics. Most research has focused on the impacts of climatic water availability, whereas remarkably little is known about the influence of water table depth and excess soil water on forest processes. Nevertheless, given that plants take up water from the soil, the impacts of climatic water supply on plants are likely to be modulated by soil water conditions. Location: Lowland Amazonian forests. Time period: 1971–2019. Methods: We used 344 long-term inventory plots distributed across Amazonia to analyse the effects of long-term climatic and edaphic water supply on forest functioning. We modelled forest structure and dynamics as a function of climatic, soil-water and edaphic properties. Results: Water supplied by both precipitation and groundwater affects forest structure and dynamics, but in different ways. Forests with a shallow water table (depth <5 m) had 18% less above-ground woody productivity and 23% less biomass stock than forests with a deep water table. Forests in drier climates (maximum cumulative water deficit < −160 mm) had 21% less productivity and 24% less biomass than those in wetter climates. Productivity was affected by the interaction between climatic water deficit and water table depth. On average, in drier climates the forests with a shallow water table had lower productivity than those with a deep water table, with this difference decreasing within wet climates, where lower productivity was confined to a very shallow water table. Main conclusions: We show that the two extremes of water availability (excess and deficit) both reduce productivity in Amazon upland (terra-firme) forests. Biomass and productivity across Amazonia respond not simply to regional climate, but rather to its interaction with water table conditions, exhibiting high local differentiation. Our study disentangles the relative contribution of those factors, helping to improve understanding of the functioning of tropical ecosystems and how they are likely to respond to climate change

Sensitivity of South American tropical forests to an extreme climate anomaly

Funder: A Moore Foundation grant, Royal Society Global Challenges grant (Sensitivity of Tropical Forest Ecosystem Services to Climate Changes), CNPq grants (441282/2016-4, 403764/2012-2 and 558244/2009-2), FAPEAM grants 1600/2006, 465/2010 and PPFOR 147/2015, CNPq grants 473308/2009-6 and 558320/2009-0. European Research Council (ERC Advanced Grant 291585 - 'T-FORCES'), the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation (#1656 'RAINFOR', and 'MonANPeru'), the European Union's Fifth, Sixth and Seventh Framework Programme (EVK2-CT-1999-00023 - 'CARBONSINK-LBA', 283080 - 'GEOCARBON', 282664 - 'AMAZALERT), the Natural Environment Research Council (NE/ D005590/1 - 'TROBIT', NE/F005806/1 - 'AMAZONICA', E/M0022021/1 - 'PPFOR'), several NERC Urgency and New Investigators Grants, the NERC/State of Sao Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP) consortium grants 'BIO-RED' (NE/N012542/1), 'ECOFOR' (NE/K016431/1, 2012/51872-5, 2012/51509-8), 'ARBOLES' (NE/S011811/1, FAPESP 2018/15001-6), 'SEOSAW' (NE/P008755/1), 'SECO' (NE/T01279X/1), Brazilian National Research Council (PELD/CNPq 403710/2012-0), the Royal Society (University Research Fellowships and Global challenges Awards) (ICA/R1/180100 - 'FORAMA'), the National Geographic Society, US National Science Foundation (DEB 1754647) and Colombia's Colciencias. We thank the National Council for Science and Technology Development of Brazil (CNPq) for support to the Cerrado/Amazonia Transition Long-Term Ecology Project (PELD/441244/2016-5), the PPBio Phytogeography of Amazonia/Cerrado Transition Project (CNPq/PPBio/457602/2012-0), PELD-RAS (CNPq, Process 441659/2016-0), RESFLORA (Process 420254/2018-8), Synergize (Process 442354/2019-3), the Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuaria - Embrapa (SEG: 02.08.06.005.00), the Fundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Sao Paulo - FAPESP (2012/51509-8 and 2012/51872-5), the Goias Research Foundation (FAPEG/PELD: 2017/10267000329) the EcoSpace Project (CNPq 459941/2014-3) and several PVE and Productivity Grants. We also thank the "Investissement d'Avenir" program (CEBA, ref. ANR-10LABX-25-01), the Sao Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP 03/12595-7) and the Sustainable Landscapes Brazil Project (through Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (EMBRAPA), the US Forest Service, USAID, and the US Department of State) for supporting plot inventories in the Atlantic Forest sites in Sao Paulo, Brazil. L.E.O.C.A. was supported by CNPq (processes 305054/2016-3 and 442371/2019-5). We thank to the National Council for Technological and Scientific Development (CNPq) for the financial support of the PELD project (441244/2016-5, 441572/2020-0) and FAPEMAT (0346321/2021). NE/B503384/1, NE/N012542/1 - 'BIO-RED', ERC Advanced Grant 291585 - 'T-FORCES', NE/F005806/1 - 'AMAZONICA', NE/N004655/1 - 'TREMOR', NERC New Investigators Awards, the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation ('RAINFOR', 'MonANPeru'), ERC Starter Grant 758873 -'TreeMort', EU Framework 6, a Royal Society University Research Fellowship, and a Leverhulme Trust Research Fellowship.AbstractThe tropical forest carbon sink is known to be drought sensitive, but it is unclear which forests are the most vulnerable to extreme events. Forests with hotter and drier baseline conditions may be protected by prior adaptation, or more vulnerable because they operate closer to physiological limits. Here we report that forests in drier South American climates experienced the greatest impacts of the 2015–2016 El Niño, indicating greater vulnerability to extreme temperatures and drought. The long-term, ground-measured tree-by-tree responses of 123 forest plots across tropical South America show that the biomass carbon sink ceased during the event with carbon balance becoming indistinguishable from zero (−0.02 ± 0.37 Mg C ha−1 per year). However, intact tropical South American forests overall were no more sensitive to the extreme 2015–2016 El Niño than to previous less intense events, remaining a key defence against climate change as long as they are protected.</jats:p

Effects of hospital facilities on patient outcomes after cancer surgery: an international, prospective, observational study

© 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licenseBackground: Early death after cancer surgery is higher in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) compared with in high-income countries, yet the impact of facility characteristics on early postoperative outcomes is unknown. The aim of this study was to examine the association between hospital infrastructure, resource availability, and processes on early outcomes after cancer surgery worldwide. Methods: A multimethods analysis was performed as part of the GlobalSurg 3 study—a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study of patients who had surgery for breast, colorectal, or gastric cancer. The primary outcomes were 30-day mortality and 30-day major complication rates. Potentially beneficial hospital facilities were identified by variable selection to select those associated with 30-day mortality. Adjusted outcomes were determined using generalised estimating equations to account for patient characteristics and country-income group, with population stratification by hospital. Findings: Between April 1, 2018, and April 23, 2019, facility-level data were collected for 9685 patients across 238 hospitals in 66 countries (91 hospitals in 20 high-income countries; 57 hospitals in 19 upper-middle-income countries; and 90 hospitals in 27 low-income to lower-middle-income countries). The availability of five hospital facilities was inversely associated with mortality: ultrasound, CT scanner, critical care unit, opioid analgesia, and oncologist. After adjustment for case-mix and country income group, hospitals with three or fewer of these facilities (62 hospitals, 1294 patients) had higher mortality compared with those with four or five (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 3·85 [95% CI 2·58–5·75]; p<0·0001), with excess mortality predominantly explained by a limited capacity to rescue following the development of major complications (63·0% vs 82·7%; OR 0·35 [0·23–0·53]; p<0·0001). Across LMICs, improvements in hospital facilities would prevent one to three deaths for every 100 patients undergoing surgery for cancer. Interpretation: Hospitals with higher levels of infrastructure and resources have better outcomes after cancer surgery, independent of country income. Without urgent strengthening of hospital infrastructure and resources, the reductions in cancer-associated mortality associated with improved access will not be realised. Funding: National Institute for Health and Care Research

Global variation in postoperative mortality and complications after cancer surgery: a multicentre, prospective cohort study in 82 countries

© 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 licenseBackground: 80% of individuals with cancer will require a surgical procedure, yet little comparative data exist on early outcomes in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared postoperative outcomes in breast, colorectal, and gastric cancer surgery in hospitals worldwide, focusing on the effect of disease stage and complications on postoperative mortality. Methods: This was a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of consecutive adult patients undergoing surgery for primary breast, colorectal, or gastric cancer requiring a skin incision done under general or neuraxial anaesthesia. The primary outcome was death or major complication within 30 days of surgery. Multilevel logistic regression determined relationships within three-level nested models of patients within hospitals and countries. Hospital-level infrastructure effects were explored with three-way mediation analyses. This study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03471494. Findings: Between April 1, 2018, and Jan 31, 2019, we enrolled 15 958 patients from 428 hospitals in 82 countries (high income 9106 patients, 31 countries; upper-middle income 2721 patients, 23 countries; or lower-middle income 4131 patients, 28 countries). Patients in LMICs presented with more advanced disease compared with patients in high-income countries. 30-day mortality was higher for gastric cancer in low-income or lower-middle-income countries (adjusted odds ratio 3·72, 95% CI 1·70–8·16) and for colorectal cancer in low-income or lower-middle-income countries (4·59, 2·39–8·80) and upper-middle-income countries (2·06, 1·11–3·83). No difference in 30-day mortality was seen in breast cancer. The proportion of patients who died after a major complication was greatest in low-income or lower-middle-income countries (6·15, 3·26–11·59) and upper-middle-income countries (3·89, 2·08–7·29). Postoperative death after complications was partly explained by patient factors (60%) and partly by hospital or country (40%). The absence of consistently available postoperative care facilities was associated with seven to 10 more deaths per 100 major complications in LMICs. Cancer stage alone explained little of the early variation in mortality or postoperative complications. Interpretation: Higher levels of mortality after cancer surgery in LMICs was not fully explained by later presentation of disease. The capacity to rescue patients from surgical complications is a tangible opportunity for meaningful intervention. Early death after cancer surgery might be reduced by policies focusing on strengthening perioperative care systems to detect and intervene in common complications. Funding: National Institute for Health Research Global Health Research Unit