Testing for Network and Spatial Autocorrelation

Testing for dependence has been a well-established component of spatial statistical analyses for decades. In particular, several popular test statistics have desirable properties for testing for the presence of spatial autocorrelation in continuous variables. In this paper we propose two contributions to the literature on tests for autocorrelation. First, we propose a new test for autocorrelation in categorical variables. While some methods currently exist for assessing spatial autocorrelation in categorical variables, the most popular method is unwieldy, somewhat ad hoc, and fails to provide grounds for a single omnibus test. Second, we discuss the importance of testing for autocorrelation in network, rather than spatial, data, motivated by applications in social network data. We demonstrate that existing tests for autocorrelation in spatial data for continuous variables and our new test for categorical variables can both be used in the network setting

A Cross-Sectional Study of Prisoners in Mexico City Comparing Prevalence of Transmissible Infections and Chronic Diseases with That in the General Population.

ObjectivesTo describe patterns of transmissible infections, chronic illnesses, socio-demographic characteristics and risk behaviors in Mexico City prisons, including in comparison to the general population, to identify those currently needing healthcare and inform policy.Materials and methodsA cross-sectional study among 17,000 prisoners at 4 Mexico City prisons (June to December 2010). Participation was voluntary, confidential and based on informed consent. Participants were tested for HIV, Hepatitis B & C, syphilis, hypertension, obesity, and, if at risk, glucose and cholesterol. A subset completed a questionnaire on socio-demographic characteristics and risk behaviors. Positive results were delivered with counseling and treatment or referral.Results76.8% (15,517/20,196) of men and 92.9% (1,779/1,914) of women participated. Complete data sets were available for 98.8%. The following prevalence data were established for transmissible infections: HIV 0.7%; syphilis: Anti-TP+/VDRL+ 2.0%; Hepatitis B: HBcAb 2.8%, HBsAg 0.15%; Anti-HCV 3.2%. Obesity: 9.5% men, 33.8% women. Compared with national age- and sex-matched data, the relative prevalence was greater for HIV and syphilis among women, HIV and Hepatitis C in men, and all infections in younger participants. Obesity prevalence was similar for women and lower among male participants. The prevalence of previously diagnosed diabetes and hypertension was lower. Questionnaire data (1,934 men, 520 women) demonstrated lower educational levels, increased smoking and substance use compared to national data. High levels of non-sterile tattooing, physical abuse and histories of sexual violence were found.ConclusionThe study identified that health screening is acceptable to Mexico City prisoners and feasible on a large-scale. It demonstrated higher prevalence of HIV and other infections compared to national data, though low rates compared to international data. Individual participants benefited from earlier diagnosis, treatment and support. The data collected will also enable the formulation of improved policy for this vulnerable group

Differences in response to antiretroviral therapy in HIV-positive patients being treated for tuberculosis in Eastern Europe, Western Europe and Latin America

BACKGROUND: Efavirenz-based antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimens are preferred for treatment of adult HIV-positive patients co-infected with tuberculosis (HIV/TB). Few studies have compared outcomes among HIV/TB patients treated with efavirenz or non-efavirenz containing regimens. METHODS: HIV-positive patients aged ≥16 years with a diagnosis of tuberculosis recruited to the TB:HIV study between Jan 1, 2011, and Dec 31, 2013 in 19 countries in Eastern Europe (EE), Western Europe (WE), and Latin America (LA) who received ART concomitantly with TB treatment were included. Patients either received efavirenz-containing ART starting between 15 days prior to, during, or within 90 days after starting tuberculosis treatment, (efavirenz group), or other ART regimens (non-efavirenz group). Patients who started ART more than 90 days after initiation of TB treatment, or who experienced ART interruption of more than 15 days during TB treatment were excluded. We describe rates and factors associated with death, virological suppression, and loss to follow up at 12 months using univariate, multivariate Cox, and marginal structural models to compare the two groups of patients. RESULTS: Of 965 patients (647 receiving efavirenz-containing ART, and 318 a non-efavirenz regimen) 50% were from EE, 28% from WE, and 22% from LA. Among those not receiving efavirenz-containing ART, regimens mainly contained a ritonavir-boosted protease inhibitor (57%), or raltegravir (22%). At 12 months 1.4% of patients in WE had died, compared to 20% in EE: rates of virological suppression ranged from 21% in EE to 61% in WE. After adjusting for potential confounders, rates of death (adjusted Hazard Ratio; aHR, 95%CI: 1.13, 0.72–1.78), virological suppression (aHR, 95%CI: 0.97, 0.76–1.22), and loss to follow up (aHR, 95%CI: 1.17, 0.81–1.67), were similar in patients treated with efavirenz and non-efavirenz containing ART regimens. CONCLUSION: In this large, prospective cohort, the response to ART varied significantly across geographical regions, whereas the ART regimen (efavirenz or non-efavirenz containing) did not impact on the proportion of patients who were virologically-suppressed, lost to follow up or dead at 12 months

Rates and Reasons for Early Change of First HAART in HIV-1-Infected Patients in 7 Sites throughout the Caribbean and Latin America

BACKGROUND: HAART rollout in Latin America and the Caribbean has increased from approximately 210,000 in 2003 to 390,000 patients in 2007, covering 62% (51%-70%) of eligible patients, with considerable variation among countries. No multi-cohort study has examined rates of and reasons for change of initial HAART in this region. METHODOLOGY: Antiretroviral-naïve patients >or= 18 years who started HAART between 1996 and 2007 and had at least one follow-up visit from sites in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Haiti, Honduras, Mexico and Peru were included. Time from HAART initiation to change (stopping or switching any antiretrovirals) was estimated using Kaplan-Meier techniques. Cox proportional hazards modeled the associations between change and demographics, initial regimen, baseline CD4 count, and clinical stage. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Of 5026 HIV-infected patients, 35% were female, median age at HAART initiation was 37 years (interquartile range [IQR], 31-44), and median CD4 count was 105 cells/uL (IQR, 38-200). Estimated probabilities of changing within 3 months and one year of HAART initiation were 16% (95% confidence interval (CI) 15-17%) and 28% (95% CI 27-29%), respectively. Efavirenz-based regimens and no clinical AIDS at HAART initiation were associated with lower risk of change (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.7 (95% CI 1.1-2.6) and 2.1 (95% CI 1.7-2.5) comparing neverapine-based regimens and other regimens to efavirenz, respectively; HR = 1.3 (95% CI 1.1-1.5) for clinical AIDS at HAART initiation). The primary reason for change among HAART initiators were adverse events (14%), death (5.7%) and failure (1.3%) with specific toxicities varying among sites. After change, most patients remained in first line regimens. CONCLUSIONS: Adverse events were the leading cause for changing initial HAART. Predictors for change due to any reason were AIDS at baseline and the use of a non-efavirenz containing regimen. Differences between participant sites were observed and require further investigation

Risk of Suicidal Behavior With Use of Efavirenz: Results from the Strategic Timing of Antiretroviral Treatment Trial

BACKGROUND: Randomized trials have shown increased risk of suicidality associated with efavirenz (EFV). The START (Strategic Timing of Antiretroviral Treatment) trial randomized treatment-naive human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive adults with high CD4 cell counts to immediate vs deferred antiretroviral therapy (ART). METHODS: The initial ART regimen was selected prior to randomization (prespecified). We compared the incidence of suicidal and self-injurious behaviours (suicidal behavior) between the immediate vs deferred ART groups using proportional hazards models, separately for those with EFV and other prespecified regimens, by intention to treat, and after censoring participants in the deferred arm at ART initiation. RESULTS: Of 4684 participants, 271 (5.8%) had a prior psychiatric diagnosis. EFV was prespecified for 3515 participants (75%), less often in those with psychiatric diagnoses (40%) than without (77%). While the overall intention-to-treat comparison showed no difference in suicidal behavior between arms (hazard ratio [HR], 1.07, P = .81), subgroup analyses suggest that initiation of EFV, but not other ART, is associated with increased risk of suicidal behavior. When censoring follow-up at ART initiation in the deferred group, the immediate vs deferred HR among those who were prespecified EFV was 3.31 (P = .03) and 1.04 (P = .93) among those with other prespecified ART; (P = .07 for interaction). In the immediate group, the risk was higher among those with prior psychiatric diagnoses, regardless of prespecified treatment group. CONCLUSIONS: Participants who used EFV in the immediate ART group had increased risk of suicidal behavior compared with ART-naive controls. Those with prior psychiatric diagnoses were at higher risk

Statistical Methods in Recent HIV Noninferiority Trials: Reanalysis of 11 Trials

Background: In recent years the ‘‘noninferiority’ ’ trial has emerged as the new standard design for HIV drug development among antiretroviral patients often with a primary endpoint based on the difference in success rates between the two treatment groups. Different statistical methods have been introduced to provide confidence intervals for that difference. The main objective is to investigate whether the choice of the statistical method changes the conclusion of the trials. Methods: We presented 11 trials published in 2010 using a difference in proportions as the primary endpoint. In these trials, 5 different statistical methods have been used to estimate such confidence intervals. The five methods are described and applied to data from the 11 trials. The noninferiority of the new treatment is not demonstrated if the prespecified noninferiority margin it includes in the confidence interval of the treatment difference. Results: Results indicated that confidence intervals can be quite different according to the method used. In many situations, however, conclusions of the trials are not altered because point estimates of the treatment difference were too far from the prespecified noninferiority margins. Nevertheless, in few trials the use of different statistical methods led to different conclusions. In particular the use of ‘‘exact’ ’ methods can be very confusing. Conclusion: Statistical methods used to estimate confidence intervals in noninferiority trials have a strong impact on th

Cross-Sectional Analysis of Late HAART Initiation in Latin America and the Caribbean: Late Testers and Late Presenters

Background: Starting HAART in a very advanced stage of disease is assumed to be the most prevalent form of initiation in HIV-infected subjects in developing countries. Data from Latin America and the Caribbean is still lacking. Our main objective was to determine the frequency, risk factors and trends in time for being late HAART initiator (LHI) in this region. Methodology: Cross-sectional analysis from 9817 HIV-infected treatment-naive patients initiating HAART at 6 sites (Argentina, Chile, Haiti, Honduras, Peru and Mexico) from October 1999 to July 2010. LHI had CD4$^+$ count $\leq$200cells/mm$^3$ prior to HAART. Late testers (LT) were those LHI who initiated HAART within 6 months of HIV diagnosis. Late presenters (LP) initiated after 6 months of diagnosis. Prevalence, risk factors and trends over time were analyzed. Principal Findings: Among subjects starting HAART (n = 9817) who had baseline CD4$^+$ available (n = 8515), 76% were LHI: Argentina (56%[95%CI:52–59]), Chile (80%[95%CI:77–82]), Haiti (76%[95%CI:74–77]), Honduras (91%[95%CI:87–94]), Mexico (79%[95%CI:75–83]), Peru (86%[95%CI:84–88]). The proportion of LHI statistically changed over time (except in Honduras) ($p\leq0.02$; Honduras p = 0.7), with a tendency towards lower rates in recent years. Males had increased risk of LHI in Chile, Haiti, Peru, and in the combined site analyses (CSA). Older patients were more likely LHI in Argentina and Peru (OR 1.21 per +10-year of age, 95%CI:1.02–1.45; OR 1.20, 95%CI:1.02–1.43; respectively), but not in CSA (OR 1.07, 95%CI:0.94–1.21). Higher education was associated with decreased risk for LHI in Chile (OR 0.92 per +1-year of education, 95%CI:0.87–0.98) (similar trends in Mexico, Peru, and CSA). LHI with date of HIV-diagnosis available, 55% were LT and 45% LP. Conclusion: LHI was highly prevalent in CCASAnet sites, mostly due to LT; the main risk factors associated were being male and older age. Earlier HIV-diagnosis and earlier treatment initiation are needed to maximize benefits from HAART in the region

Immigrant IBD Patients in Spain Are Younger, Have More Extraintestinal Manifestations and Use More Biologics Than Native Patients

BackgroundPrevious studies comparing immigrant ethnic groups and native patients with IBD have yielded clinical and phenotypic differences. To date, no study has focused on the immigrant IBD population in Spain. MethodsProspective, observational, multicenter study comparing cohorts of IBD patients from ENEIDA-registry who were born outside Spain with a cohort of native patients. ResultsWe included 13,524 patients (1,864 immigrant and 11,660 native). The immigrants were younger (45 +/- 12 vs. 54 +/- 16 years, p < 0.001), had been diagnosed younger (31 +/- 12 vs. 36 +/- 15 years, p < 0.001), and had a shorter disease duration (14 +/- 7 vs. 18 +/- 8 years, p < 0.001) than native patients. Family history of IBD (9 vs. 14%, p < 0.001) and smoking (30 vs. 40%, p < 0.001) were more frequent among native patients. The most prevalent ethnic groups among immigrants were Caucasian (41.5%), followed by Latin American (30.8%), Arab (18.3%), and Asian (6.7%). Extraintestinal manifestations, mainly musculoskeletal affections, were more frequent in immigrants (19 vs. 11%, p < 0.001). Use of biologics, mainly anti-TNF, was greater in immigrants (36 vs. 29%, p < 0.001). The risk of having extraintestinal manifestations [OR: 2.23 (1.92-2.58, p < 0.001)] and using biologics [OR: 1.13 (1.0-1.26, p = 0.042)] was independently associated with immigrant status in the multivariate analyses. ConclusionsCompared with native-born patients, first-generation-immigrant IBD patients in Spain were younger at disease onset and showed an increased risk of having extraintestinal manifestations and using biologics. Our study suggests a featured phenotype of immigrant IBD patients in Spain, and constitutes a new landmark in the epidemiological characterization of immigrant IBD populations in Southern Europe

Ibero-American Consensus on Low- and No-Calorie Sweeteners: Safety, Nutritional Aspects and Benefits in Food and Beverages

International scientific experts in food, nutrition, dietetics, endocrinology, physical activity, paediatrics, nursing, toxicology and public health met in Lisbon on 2-4 July 2017 to develop a Consensus on the use of low- and no-calorie sweeteners (LNCS) as substitutes for sugars and other caloric sweeteners. LNCS are food additives that are broadly used as sugar substitutes to sweeten foods and beverages with the addition of fewer or no calories. They are also used in medicines, health-care products, such as toothpaste, and food supplements. The goal of this Consensus was to provide a useful, evidence-based, point of reference to assist in efforts to reduce free sugars consumption in line with current international public health recommendations. Participating experts in the Lisbon Consensus analysed and evaluated the evidence in relation to the role of LNCS in food safety, their regulation and the nutritional and dietary aspects of their use in foods and beverages. The conclusions of this Consensus were: (1) LNCS are some of the most extensively evaluated dietary constituents, and their safety has been reviewed and confirmed by regulatory bodies globally including the World Health Organisation, the US Food and Drug Administration and the European Food Safety Authority; (2) Consumer education, which is based on the most robust scientific evidence and regulatory processes, on the use of products containing LNCS should be strengthened in a comprehensive and objective way; (3) The use of LNCS in weight reduction programmes that involve replacing caloric sweeteners with LNCS in the context of structured diet plans may favour sustainable weight reduction. Furthermore, their use in diabetes management programmes may contribute to a better glycaemic control in patients, albeit with modest results. LNCS also provide dental health benefits when used in place of free sugars; (4) It is proposed that foods and beverages with LNCS could be included in dietary guidelines as alternative options to products sweetened with free sugars; (5) Continued education of health professionals is required, since they are a key source of information on issues related to food and health for both the general population and patients. With this in mind, the publication of position statements and consensus documents in the academic literature are extremely desirable