Forecasting Tunisian type 2 diabetes prevalence to 2027: validation of a simple model.

BACKGROUND: Most projections of type 2 diabetes (T2D) prevalence are simply based on demographic change (i.e. ageing). We developed a model to predict future trends in T2D prevalence in Tunisia, explicitly taking into account trends in major risk factors (obesity and smoking). This could improve assessment of policy options for prevention and health service planning. METHODS: The IMPACT T2D model uses a Markov approach to integrate population, obesity and smoking trends to estimate future T2D prevalence. We developed a model for the Tunisian population from 1997 to 2027, and validated the model outputs by comparing with a subsequent T2D prevalence survey conducted in 2005. RESULTS: The model estimated that the prevalence of T2D among Tunisians aged over 25 years was 12.0% in 1997 (95% confidence intervals 9.6%-14.4%), increasing to 15.1% (12.5%-17.4%) in 2005. Between 1997 and 2005, observed prevalence in men increased from 13.5% to 16.1% and in women from 12.9% to 14.1%. The model forecast for a dramatic rise in prevalence by 2027 (26.6% overall, 28.6% in men and 24.7% in women). However, if obesity prevalence declined by 20% in the 10 years from 2013, and if smoking decreased by 20% over 10 years from 2009, a 3.3% reduction in T2D prevalence could be achieved in 2027 (2.5% in men and 4.1% in women). CONCLUSIONS: This innovative model provides a reasonably close estimate of T2D prevalence for Tunisia over the 1997-2027 period. Diabetes burden is now a significant public health challenge. Our model predicts that this burden will increase significantly in the next two decades. Tackling obesity, smoking and other T2D risk factors thus needs urgent action. Tunisian decision makers have therefore defined two strategies: obesity reduction and tobacco control. Responses will be evaluated in future population surveys

DIABRISK - SL Prevention of cardio-metabolic disease with life style modification in young urban Sri Lankan's - study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Urban South-Asian's are predisposed to early onset of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). There is an urgent need for country specific primary prevention strategies to address the growing burden of cardio-metabolic disease in this population. The aim of this clinical trial is to evaluate whether intensive (3-monthly) lifestyle modification advice is superior to a less-intensive (12 monthly; control group) lifestyle modification advice on a primary composite cardio-metabolic end point in 'at risk' urban subjects aged between 5-40 years.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>This is an open randomised controlled parallel group clinical trial performed at a single centre in Colombo, Sri-Lanka. A cluster sampling strategy was used to select a large representative sample of subjects aged between 5-40 years at high risk of T2DM and CVD for the intervention study. We have screened 23,298 (males 47% females 53%) healthy subjects for four risk factors: obesity, elevated waist circumference, family history of diabetes and physical inactivity, using a questionnaire and anthropometry. Those with two or more risk-factors were recruited to the intervention trial. We aim to recruit 4600 subjects for the intervention trial. The primary composite cardio-metabolic end point is; new onset T2DM, impaired glucose tolerance, impaired fasting glycaemia, new onset hypertension and albuminuria, following 5 years of intervention. The effect of the intervention on pre-specified secondary endpoints will also be evaluated. The study will be conducted according to good clinical and ethical practice, data analysis and reporting guidelines.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>DIABRISK-SL is a large population based trial to evaluate the prevalence of diabetes, pre-diabetes and cardio-metabolic risk factors among young urban Sri-Lankans and the effect of a primary prevention strategy on cardio-metabolic disease end points. This work will enable country specific and regional cardio-metabolic risk scores to be derived. Further if the proposed intervention is successful the results of this study can be translated and implemented as a low-cost primary prevention tool in Sri-Lanka and other low/middle income developing countries.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>The trial is registered with the World Health Organisation and Sri-Lanka clinical trial registry number SLCTR/2008/003</p

Prevention of type 2 diabetes and its complications in developing countries: a review.

BACKGROUND: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a significant global public health problem affecting more than 285 million people worldwide. Over 70% of those with T2DM live in developing countries, and this proportion is increasing annually. Evidence suggests that lifestyle and other nonpharmacological interventions can delay and even prevent the development of T2DM and its complications; however, to date, programs that have been specifically adapted to the needs and circumstances of developing countries have not been well developed or evaluated. PURPOSE: The purpose of this article is to review published studies that evaluate lifestyle and other non-pharmacological interventions aimed at preventing T2DM and its complications in developing countries. METHODS: We undertook an electronic search of MEDLINE, PubMed, and EMBASE with the English language restriction and published until 30 September 2009. RESULTS: Nine relevant publications from seven studies were identified. The reported interventions predominantly used counseling and educational methods to improve diet and physical activity levels. Each intervention was found to be effective in reducing the risk of developing T2DM in people with impaired glucose tolerance, and improving glycemic control in people with T2DM. CONCLUSIONS: The current evidence concerning the prevention of T2DM and its complications in developing countries has shown reasonably consistent and positive results; however, the small number of studies creates some significant limitations. More research is needed to evaluate the benefits of low-cost screening tools, as well as the efficacy, cost-effectiveness, and sustainability of culturally appropriate interventions in such countries

Patients' perspectives of care for type 2 diabetes in Bangladesh -a qualitative study

Background: Worldwide, type 2 diabetes affects approximately 220 million people and is the cause of 1.1 million deaths each year, 80% of which occur in low and middle income countries (LMICs). Over the next 20 years, prevalence is expected to double worldwide and increase by 150% in LMICs. There is now a move towards improving care for diabetes. However no information on patients' needs, perceptions and experiences is available, hindering effective and appropriate changes in policy and practice. We developed a study with the objective of understanding patients' experiences of treatment for type 2 diabetes. Methods. During January 2011, we conducted in-depth interviews in five sites across two administrative districts of Bangladesh, purposefully chosen to represent different geographic regions and local demographics In total, we conducted 23 (14 male, 9 female) individual interviews across the 5 sites, to gain insight into patients' understanding of their diabetes and its management. Results: Patients' levels of knowledge and understanding about diabetes and its management is depended on where they received their initial diagnosis and care. Away from specialist centres, patients had poor understanding of the essential of diabetes and its management. No appropriate written or verbal information was available for a significant number of patients, compounded limited knowledge and understanding of diabetes by healthcare professionals. Patients felt that with improved provision of appropriate information they would be able to better understand their diabetes and improve their role in its management. Access to appropriate diagnosis and subsequent treatment was restricted by availability and costs of services. Conclusion: Effective, appropriate and essential healthcare services for diabetes in Bangladesh is extremely limited, a majority of patients receive suboptimal care. Site of diagnosis will impact significantly on the quality of information provided and the quality of subsequent treatments. Although appropriate services are available at some specialist centres, the inability of patients to pay for routine tests and check-ups prevents them from receiving timely diagnoses and appropriate continuity of care. The double burden of communicable diseases and diseases is now a well-recognised. Emphasis must be placed on developing appropriate and effective preventive strategies to address this burden

Interaction between FTO gene variants and lifestyle factors on metabolic traits in an Asian Indian population

Background Lifestyle factors such as diet and physical activity have been shown to modify the association between fat mass and obesity–associated (FTO) gene variants and metabolic traits in several populations; however, there are no gene-lifestyle interaction studies, to date, among Asian Indians living in India. In this study, we examined whether dietary factors and physical activity modified the association between two FTO single nucleotide polymorphisms (rs8050136 and rs11076023) (SNPs) and obesity traits and type 2 diabetes (T2D). Methods The study included 734 unrelated T2D and 884 normal glucose-tolerant (NGT) participants randomly selected from the urban component of the Chennai Urban Rural Epidemiology Study (CURES). Dietary intakes were assessed using a validated interviewer administered semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire (FFQ). Physical activity was based upon the self-report. Interaction analyses were performed by including the interaction terms in the linear/logistic regression model. Results There was a significant interaction between SNP rs8050136 and carbohydrate intake (% energy) (Pinteraction = 0.04), where the ‘A’ allele carriers had 2.46 times increased risk of obesity than those with ‘CC’ genotype (P = 3.0 × 10−5) among individuals in the highest tertile of carbohydrate intake (% energy, 71 %). A significant interaction was also observed between SNP rs11076023 and dietary fibre intake (Pinteraction = 0.0008), where individuals with AA genotype who are in the 3rd tertile of dietary fibre intake had 1.62 cm lower waist circumference than those with ‘T’ allele carriers (P = 0.02). Furthermore, among those who were physically inactive, the ‘A’ allele carriers of the SNP rs8050136 had 1.89 times increased risk of obesity than those with ‘CC’ genotype (P = 4.0 × 10−5). Conclusions This is the first study to provide evidence for a gene-diet and gene-physical activity interaction on obesity and T2D in an Asian Indian population. Our findings suggest that the association between FTO SNPs and obesity might be influenced by carbohydrate and dietary fibre intake and physical inactivity. Further understanding of how FTO gene influences obesity and T2D through dietary and exercise interventions is warranted to advance the development of behavioral intervention and personalised lifestyle strategies, which could reduce the risk of metabolic diseases in this Asian Indian population