2 research outputs found
Quantified, Localized Health Benefits of Accelerated Carbon Dioxide Emissions Reductions
Societal risks increase as Earth warms, and increase further for emissions trajectories accepting relatively high levels of near-term emissions while assuming future negative emissions will compensate, even if they lead to identical warming as trajectories with reduced near-term emissions. Accelerating carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reductions, including as a substitute for negative emissions, hence reduces long-term risks but requires dramatic near-term societal transformations. A major barrier to emissions reductions is the difficulty of reconciling immediate, localized costs with global, long-term benefits. However, 2 C trajectories not relying on negative emissions or 1.5 C trajectories require elimination of most fossil-fuel-related emissions. This generally reduces co-emissions that cause ambient air pollution, resulting in near-term, localized health benefits. We therefore examine the human health benefits of increasing 21st-century CO2 reductions by 180 GtC, an amount that would shift a 'standard' 2 C scenario to 1.5 C or could achieve 2 C without negative emissions. The decreased air pollution leads to 153 +/- 43 million fewer premature deaths worldwide, with approx.40% occurring during the next 40 years, and minimal climate disbenefits. More than a million premature deaths would be prevented in many metropolitan areas in Asia and Africa, and greater than 200,000 in individual urban areas on every inhabited continent except Australia