Models for earlier prognosis of renal decline in polycystic kidney disease (PKD) patients

Polycystic kidney disease (PKD) is a genetic condition that leads to increased formation and growth of kidney cysts, and thus may lead to rapid onset of end-stage renal disease (ESRD). In 2017, more than 15% adults in the US were estimated to have inherited PKD. About half of PKD patients require dialysis or renal replacement therapy by 60 years of age. Prior to these terminal outcomes, chronic kidney disease (CKD), which is defined as a progressive loss of kidney function, represents the primary outcome of interest for PKD patients. Treatments of CKD are currently being developed, bur need to be administered earlier in the process. Therefore, earlier prognosis of PKD patients at risk for renal decline provides an opportunity to prevent or delay the progression of ESRD and decrease morbidity and mortality. In this study, CKD stage 3B with glomerular filtration rate (GFR) less than 45 ml/min was considered the endpoint of highest clinical interest since stage 3B is early enough to identify patients before rapid decline, but late enough to represent a clinically meaningful outcome. We evaluated earlier prognostic ability of factors available at birth for CKD stage 3B among currently healthy PKD patients; use of only factors available at birth is a novel approach and could lead to early identification of PKD patients who subsequently experience clinical outcomes (e.g. later stages of CKD or ESRD). Training data were collected from the Consortium for Radiologic Imaging Studies of Chronic Kidney Disease (CRISP). Multivariable logistic regression was initially employed to predict renal decline. A pruned classification tree model showed similar prognostic ability as logistic regression based on overlapping 10-fold cross validation AUC confidence intervals. Random forests, however, showed significant improvement in prognostic ability. This study also validated results using a completed clinical trial of similar PKD patients (the HALT Progression of Polycystic Kidney Disease Study). Both CRISP cross validation and HALT validation results agreed on the best model (random forests) for prognostic ability. In terms of public health significance, random forests could help estimate the probability of PKD patients reaching renal failure at given age, and thus inform prevention efforts

Case Studies of Environmental Visualization

The performance gap between simulation and reality has been identified as a major challenge to achieving sustainability in the Built Environment. While Post-Occupancy Evaluation (POE) surveys are an integral part of better understanding building performance, and thus addressing this issue, the importance of POE remains relatively unacknowledged within the wider Built Environment community. A possible reason that has been highlighted is that POE survey data is not easily understood and utilizable by non-expert stakeholders, including designers. A potential method by which to address this is the visualization method, which has well established benefits for communication of big datasets. This paper presents two case studies where EnViz (short for “Environmental Visualization”), a prototype software application developed for research purposes, was utilized and its effectiveness tested via a range of analysis tasks. The results are discussed and compared with those of previous work that utilized variations of the methods presented here. The paper concludes by presenting the lessons drawn from the five-year period of EnViz, emphasizing the potential of environmental visualization for decision support in environmental design and engineering for the built environment, and suggests directions for future development

Modification effect of changes in cardiometabolic traits in association between kidney stones and cardiovascular events

BackgroundsWhether longitudinal changes in metabolic status influence the effect of kidney stones on cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains unclarified. We investigated the modification effect of status changes in metabolic syndrome (MetS) in the association of kidney stones with risk of incident CVD events.MethodsWe performed a prospective association and interaction study in a nationwide cohort including 129,172 participants aged ≥ 40 years without CVDs at baseline and followed up for an average of 3.8 years. Kidney stones information was collected by using a questionnaire and validated by medical records. The repeated biochemical measurements were performed to ascertain the metabolic status at both baseline and follow-up.Results4,017 incident total CVDs, 1,413 coronary heart diseases (CHDs) and 2,682 strokes were documented and ascertained during follow-up. Kidney stones presence was significantly associated with 44%, 70% and 31% higher risk of CVDs, CHDs and stroke, respectively. The stratified analysis showed significant associations were found in the incident and sustained MetS patients, while no significant associations were found in the non-MetS at both baseline and follow-up subjects or the MetS remission ones, especially in women. For the change status of each single component of the MetS, though the trends were not always the same, the associations with CVD were consistently significant in those with sustained metabolic disorders, except for the sustained high blood glucose group, while the associations were consistently significant in those with incident metabolic disorders except for the incident blood pressure group. We also found a significant association of kidney stone and CVD or CHD risk in the remain normal glucose or triglycerides groups; while the associations were consistently significant in those with incident metabolic disorders except for the incident blood pressure group. We also found a significant association of kidney stone and CVD or CHD risk in the remain normal glucose or triglycerides groups.ConclusionsA history of kidney stones in women with newly developed MetS or long-standing MetS associated with increased risk of CVD. The mechanisms link kidney stones and CVD risk in the metabolic and non-metabolic pathways were warranted for further studies

The Relative Body Weight Gain From Early to Middle Life Adulthood Associated With Later Life Risk of Diabetes: A Nationwide Cohort Study

AimTo determine the effect of decade-based body weight gain from 20 to 50 years of age on later life diabetes risk.Methods35,611 non-diabetic participants aged ≥ 50 years from a well-defined nationwide cohort were followed up for average of 3.6 years, with cardiovascular diseases and cancers at baseline were excluded. Body weight at 20, 30, 40, and 50 years was reported. The overall 30 years and each 10-year weight gain were calculated from the early and middle life. Cox regression models were used to estimate risks of incident diabetes.ResultsAfter 127,745.26 person-years of follow-up, 2,789 incident diabetes were identified (incidence rate, 2.18%) in 25,289 women (mean weight gain 20-50 years, 7.60 kg) and 10,322 men (7.93 kg). Each 10-kg weight gain over the 30 years was significantly associated with a 39.7% increased risk of incident diabetes (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.33-1.47); weight gain from 20-30 years showed a more prominent effect on the risk of developing diabetes before 60 years than that of after 60 years (Hazard ratio, HR = 1.084, 95% CI [1.049-1.121], P <0.0001 vs. 1.015 [0.975-1.056], P = 0.4643; PInteraction=0.0293). It showed a stable effect of the three 10-year intervals weight gain on risk of diabetes after 60 years (HR=1.055, 1.038, 1.043, respectively, all P < 0.0036).ConclusionsThe early life weight gain showed a more prominent effect on developing diabetes before 60 years than after 60 years; however, each-decade weight gain from 20 to 50 years showed a similar effect on risk developing diabetes after 60 years

Study of the B−→Λc+Λˉc−K−B^{-} \to \Lambda_{c}^{+} \bar{\Lambda}_{c}^{-} K^{-} decay

The decay $B^{-} \to \Lambda_{c}^{+} \bar{\Lambda}_{c}^{-} K^{-}$ is studied in proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV using data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 5 $\mathrm{fb}^{-1}$ collected by the LHCb experiment. In the $\Lambda_{c}^+ K^{-}$ system, the $\Xi_{c}(2930)^{0}$ state observed at the BaBar and Belle experiments is resolved into two narrower states, $\Xi_{c}(2923)^{0}$ and $\Xi_{c}(2939)^{0}$, whose masses and widths are measured to be $$m(\Xi_{c}(2923)^{0}) = 2924.5 \pm 0.4 \pm 1.1 \,\mathrm{MeV}, \\ m(\Xi_{c}(2939)^{0}) = 2938.5 \pm 0.9 \pm 2.3 \,\mathrm{MeV}, \\ \Gamma(\Xi_{c}(2923)^{0}) = \phantom{000}4.8 \pm 0.9 \pm 1.5 \,\mathrm{MeV},\\ \Gamma(\Xi_{c}(2939)^{0}) = \phantom{00}11.0 \pm 1.9 \pm 7.5 \,\mathrm{MeV},$$ where the first uncertainties are statistical and the second systematic. The results are consistent with a previous LHCb measurement using a prompt $\Lambda_{c}^{+} K^{-}$ sample. Evidence of a new $\Xi_{c}(2880)^{0}$ state is found with a local significance of $3.8\,\sigma$, whose mass and width are measured to be $2881.8 \pm 3.1 \pm 8.5\,\mathrm{MeV}$ and $12.4 \pm 5.3 \pm 5.8 \,\mathrm{MeV}$, respectively. In addition, evidence of a new decay mode $\Xi_{c}(2790)^{0} \to \Lambda_{c}^{+} K^{-}$ is found with a significance of $3.7\,\sigma$. The relative branching fraction of $B^{-} \to \Lambda_{c}^{+} \bar{\Lambda}_{c}^{-} K^{-}$ with respect to the $B^{-} \to D^{+} D^{-} K^{-}$ decay is measured to be $2.36 \pm 0.11 \pm 0.22 \pm 0.25$, where the first uncertainty is statistical, the second systematic and the third originates from the branching fractions of charm hadron decays.Comment: All figures and tables, along with any supplementary material and additional information, are available at https://cern.ch/lhcbproject/Publications/p/LHCb-PAPER-2022-028.html (LHCb public pages

Measurement of the ratios of branching fractions R(D∗)\mathcal{R}(D^{*}) and R(D0)\mathcal{R}(D^{0})

The ratios of branching fractions $\mathcal{R}(D^{*})\equiv\mathcal{B}(\bar{B}\to D^{*}\tau^{-}\bar{\nu}_{\tau})/\mathcal{B}(\bar{B}\to D^{*}\mu^{-}\bar{\nu}_{\mu})$ and $\mathcal{R}(D^{0})\equiv\mathcal{B}(B^{-}\to D^{0}\tau^{-}\bar{\nu}_{\tau})/\mathcal{B}(B^{-}\to D^{0}\mu^{-}\bar{\nu}_{\mu})$ are measured, assuming isospin symmetry, using a sample of proton-proton collision data corresponding to 3.0 fb${ }^{-1}$ of integrated luminosity recorded by the LHCb experiment during 2011 and 2012. The tau lepton is identified in the decay mode $\tau^{-}\to\mu^{-}\nu_{\tau}\bar{\nu}_{\mu}$. The measured values are $\mathcal{R}(D^{*})=0.281\pm0.018\pm0.024$ and $\mathcal{R}(D^{0})=0.441\pm0.060\pm0.066$, where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second is systematic. The correlation between these measurements is $\rho=-0.43$. Results are consistent with the current average of these quantities and are at a combined 1.9 standard deviations from the predictions based on lepton flavor universality in the Standard Model.Comment: All figures and tables, along with any supplementary material and additional information, are available at https://cern.ch/lhcbproject/Publications/p/LHCb-PAPER-2022-039.html (LHCb public pages

Measurement of CP asymmetries and branching fraction ratios of B− decays to two charm mesons

The $CP$ asymmetries of seven $B^-$ decays to two charm mesons are measured using data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of $9\text{fb}^{-1}$ of proton-proton collisions collected by the LHCb experiment. Decays involving a $D^{*0}$ or $D^{*-}_s$ meson are analysed by reconstructing only the $D^0$ or $D^-_s$ decay products. This paper presents the first measurement of $\mathcal{A}^{CP}(B^- \rightarrow D^{*-}_s D^0)$ and $\mathcal{A}^{CP}(B^- \rightarrow D^{-}_s D^{*0})$, and the most precise measurement of the other five $CP$ asymmetries. There is no evidence of $CP$ violation in any of the analysed decays. Additionally, two ratios between branching fractions of selected decays are measured.The CP asymmetries of seven B$^{−}$ decays to two charm mesons are measured using data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 9 fb$^{−1}$ of proton-proton collisions collected by the LHCb experiment. Decays involving a D$^{*0}$ or ${D}_s^{\ast -}$ meson are analysed by reconstructing only the D$^{0}$ or ${D}_s^{-}$ decay products. This paper presents the first measurement of $\mathcal{A} ^{CP}$(B$^{−}$→${D}_s^{\ast -}$D$^{0}$) and $\mathcal{A} ^{CP}$(B$^{−}$→${D}_s^{-}$D$^{∗0}$), and the most precise measurement of the other five CP asymmetries. There is no evidence of CP violation in any of the analysed decays. Additionally, two ratios between branching fractions of selected decays are measured.[graphic not available: see fulltext]The $CP$ asymmetries of seven $B^-$ decays to two charm mesons are measured using data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of $9\text{ fb}^{-1}$ of proton-proton collisions collected by the LHCb experiment. Decays involving a $D^{*0}$ or $D^{*-}_s$ meson are analysed by reconstructing only the $D^0$ or $D^-_s$ decay products. This paper presents the first measurement of $\mathcal{A}^{CP}(B^- \rightarrow D^{*-}_s D^0)$ and $\mathcal{A}^{CP}(B^- \rightarrow D^{-}_s D^{*0})$, and the most precise measurement of the other five $CP$ asymmetries. There is no evidence of $CP$ violation in any of the analysed decays. Additionally, two ratios between branching fractions of selected decays are measured

Delimiting the boundaries of a Mountain Natural Heritage Site through multi-objective modelling. eco.mont (Journal on Protected Mountain Areas Research)|eco.mont Vol. 7 No. 1 7 1|

Defining the boundaries of natural heritage sites is critical to the protection, management and conservation of natural resources. This paper develops a multiobjective programming model based on game theory. It considers the economic and ecological benefits of various land use / land cover types, as determined by the local government and academic stakeholders’ expectations. A range of boundaries is identified by the Nash equilibrium, satisfying all players’ interests. Combining this with landscape types and considering geographic characteristics obtained from field investigations, we identify a final boundary for the Tomur buffer region in China’s Xinjiang Tianshan World Heritage Site. This novel process greatly improves our ability to shape optimal boundaries in environmental and economic terms. Future work should aim to consider widely the value orientations of various stakeholders, combining these with the cultural values and spatial properties of land use / land cover types to obtain more socially acceptable boundaries

Study on the Detectability of the Sky-Surface Wave Hybrid Radar

Working in the HF (high-frequency) band and the transmitter and receiver locating separately, the sky-surface wave hybrid radar both has the capabilities of the OTHR (over-the-horizon radar) and the advantage of the bistatic radar. As the electromagnetic wave will be disturbed by the ionosphere, interfered by the sea clutter and attenuated by the sea surface, the detectability of this radar system is more complex. So, in this paper, we will discuss the problem detailedly. First of all, the radar equation is deduced based on the propagation of the electromagnetic wave. Then, how to calculate the effect of the ionosphere and the propagation loss is discussed. And an example based on the radar equation is given. At last, the ambiguity function is used to analyze the range and velocity resolution. From the result, we find that the resolution has relation with the location of the target and the height of reflection point of the ionosphere. But compared with the location, the effect of the ionospheric height can be ignored

Conservation Value of World Natural Heritage Sites’ Outstanding Universal Value via Multiple Techniques—Bogda, Xinjiang Tianshan

The protection of World Natural Heritage Sites (WNHSs) has become a global undertaking, wherein Outstanding Universal Value (OUV) is an important aspect of heritage protection. Focusing on the protection of the aesthetic and bioecological values of Bogda (one component of Xinjiang Tianshan WNHS), 17 indicators are selected to construct a Heritage Value Protection Significance Index (HVPSI) and a related Heritage Value Protection Index (HVI). From these, the level of OUV conservation is obtained according to the five aspects of integrity, vulnerability, sensitivity, degree of human impact and environmental factors. The spatial autocorrelation analysis method was applied to the OUV conservation indices to comprehensively reflect the spatial-pattern characteristics of the heritage value in the study area. According to the spatial-division of the HVPSI, the plant community composition and diversity characteristics of different HVPSI zones are analyzed by a field survey (July 2018 and 2019). To verify the rationality of space partition and identify the OUV elements in each HVPSI district, a spatial-econometric model is then used to explore the relationship among HVPSI, HVI and community diversity. This study provides a scientific basis for management of heritage sites and a theoretical basis for further investigation into heritage site indicators