Millennial‐scale climate oscillations triggered by deglacial meltwater discharge in last glacial maximum simulations

Our limited understanding of millennial-scale variability in the context of the last glacial period can be explained by the lack of a reliable modeling framework to study abrupt climate changes under realistic glacial backgrounds. In this article, we describe a new set of long-run Last Glacial Maximum experiments where such climate shifts were triggered by different snapshots of ice-sheet meltwater derived from the early stages of the last deglaciation. Depending on the location and the magnitude of the forcing, we observe three distinct dynamical regimes and highlight a subtle window of opportunity where the climate can sustain oscillations between cold and warm modes. We identify the Eurasian Arctic and Nordic Seas regions as being most sensitive to meltwater discharge in the context of switching to a cold mode, compared to freshwater fluxes from the Laurentide ice sheets. These cold climates follow a consistent pattern in temperature, sea ice, and convection, and are largely independent from freshwater release as a result of effective AMOC collapse. Warm modes, on the other hand, show more complexity in their response to the regional pattern of the meltwater input, and within them, we observe significant differences linked to the reorganization of deep water formation sites and the subpolar gyre. Broadly, the main characteristics of the oscillations, obtained under full-glacial conditions with ice-sheet reconstruction derived meltwater patterns, share similar characteristics with δ18O records of the last glacial period, although our experiment design prevents detailed conclusions from being drawn on whether these represent actual Dansgaard-Oeschger events

Does a difference in ice sheets between Marine Isotope Stages 3 and 5a affect the duration of stadials? Implications from hosing experiments

Glacial periods undergo frequent climate shifts between warm interstadials and cold stadials on a millennial timescale. Recent studies show that the duration of these climate modes varies with the background climate; a colder background climate and lower CO2 generally result in a shorter interstadial and a longer stadial through its impact on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). However, the duration of stadials is shorter during Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3) than during MIS5, despite the colder climate in MIS3, suggesting potential control from other climate factors on the duration of stadials. In this study, we investigate the role of glacial ice sheets. For this purpose, freshwater hosing experiments are conducted with an atmosphere–ocean general circulation model under MIS5a and MIS3 boundary conditions, as well as MIS3 boundary conditions with MIS5a ice sheets. The impact of ice sheet differences on the duration of the stadials is evaluated by comparing recovery times of the AMOC after the freshwater forcing is stopped. These experiments show a slightly shorter recovery time of the AMOC during MIS3 compared with MIS5a, which is consistent with ice core data. We find that larger glacial ice sheets in MIS3 shorten the recovery time. Sensitivity experiments show that stronger surface winds over the North Atlantic shorten the recovery time by increasing the surface salinity and decreasing the sea ice amount in the deepwater formation region, which sets favorable conditions for oceanic convection. In contrast, we also find that surface cooling by larger ice sheets tends to increase the recovery time of the AMOC by increasing the sea ice thickness over the deepwater formation region. Thus, this study suggests that the larger ice sheet during MIS3 compared with MIS5a could have contributed to the shortening of stadials in MIS3, despite the climate being colder than that of MIS5a, because surface wind plays a larger role

Effect of Climatic Precession on Dansgaard-Oeschger-Like Oscillations

Using the climate model MIROC4m, we simulate self-sustained oscillations of millennial-scale periodicity in the climate and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation under glacial conditions. We show two cases of extreme climatic precession and examine the mechanism of these oscillations. When the climatic precession corresponds to strong (weak) boreal seasonality, the period of the oscillation is about 1,500 (3,000) years. During the stadial, hot (cool) summer conditions in the Northern Hemisphere contribute to thin (thick) sea ice, which covers the deep convection sites, triggering early (late) abrupt climate change. During the interstadial, as sea ice is thin (thick), cold deep-water forms and cools the subsurface quickly (slowly), which influences the stratification of the North Atlantic Ocean. We show that the oscillations are explained by the internal feedbacks of the atmosphere-sea ice-ocean system, especially subsurface ocean temperature change and salt advection feedback with a positive feedback between the subpolar gyre and deep convection

Climate of High-obliquity Exoterrestrial Planets with a Three-dimensional Cloud System Resolving Climate Model

Planetary climates are strongly affected by planetary orbital parameters such as obliquity, eccentricity, and precession. In exoplanetary systems, exoterrestrial planets should have various obliquities. High-obliquity planets would have extreme seasonal cycles due to the seasonal change of the distribution of the insolation. Here, we introduce the Non-hydrostatic ICosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM), a global cloud-resolving model, to investigate the climate of high-obliquity planets. This model can explicitly simulate a three-dimensional cloud distribution and vertical transports of water vapor. We simulated exoterrestrial climates with high resolution using the supercomputer FUGAKU. We assumed aqua-planet configurations with 1 bar of air as a background atmosphere, with four different obliquities (0°, 23.5°, 45°, and 60°). We ran two sets of simulations: (1) low resolution (∼220 km mesh as the standard resolution of a general circulation model for exoplanetary science) with parameterization for cloud formation, and (2) high resolution (∼14 km mesh) with an explicit cloud microphysics scheme. Results suggest that high-resolution simulations with an explicit treatment of cloud microphysics reveal warmer climates due to less low cloud fraction and a large amount of water vapor in the atmosphere. It implies that treatments of cloud-related processes lead to a difference between different resolutions in climatic regimes in cases with high obliquities

De-Tuning Albedo Parameters in a Coupled Climate Ice Sheet Model to Simulate the North American Ice Sheet at the Last Glacial Maximum

The Last Glacial Maximum extent of the North American Ice Sheets is well constrained empirically but has proven to be challenging to simulate with coupled Climate-Ice Sheet models. Coupled Climate-Ice Sheet models are often too computationally expensive to sufficiently explore uncertainty in input parameters, and it is unlikely that values calibrated to reproduce modern ice sheets will reproduce the known extent of the ice at the Last Glacial Maximum. To address this, we run an ensemble with a coupled Climate-Ice Sheet model (FAMOUS-ice), simulating the final stages of growth of the last North American Ice Sheets' maximum extent. Using this large ensemble approach, we explore the influence of numerous uncertain ice sheet albedo, ice sheet dynamics, atmospheric, and oceanic parameters on the ice sheet extent. We find that ice sheet albedo parameters determine the majority of uncertainty when simulating the Last Glacial Maximum North American Ice Sheets. Importantly, different albedo parameters are needed to produce a good match to the Last Glacial Maximum North American Ice Sheets than have previously been used to model the contemporary Greenland Ice Sheet due to differences in cloud cover over ablation zones. Thus, calibrating coupled climate-ice sheet models on one ice sheet may produce strong biases when the model is applied to a new domain

The PMIP4 Last Glacial Maximum experiments: preliminary results and comparison with the PMIP3 simulations

The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼ 21 000 years ago) has been a major focus for evaluating how well state-of-the-art climate models simulate climate changes as large as those expected in the future using paleoclimate reconstructions. A new generation of climate models has been used to generate LGM simulations as part of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) contribution to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Here, we provide a preliminary analysis and evaluation of the results of these LGM experiments (PMIP4, most of which are PMIP4-CMIP6) and compare them with the previous generation of simulations (PMIP3, most of which are PMIP3-CMIP5). We show that the global averages of the PMIP4 simulations span a larger range in terms of mean annual surface air temperature and mean annual precipitation compared to the PMIP3-CMIP5 simulations, with some PMIP4 simulations reaching a globally colder and drier state. However, the multi-model global cooling average is similar for the PMIP4 and PMIP3 ensembles, while the multi-model PMIP4 mean annual precipitation average is drier than the PMIP3 one. There are important differences in both atmospheric and oceanic circulations between the two sets of experiments, with the northern and southern jet streams being more poleward and the changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation being less pronounced in the PMIP4-CMIP6 simulations than in the PMIP3-CMIP5 simulations. Changes in simulated precipitation patterns are influenced by both temperature and circulation changes. Differences in simulated climate between individual models remain large. Therefore, although there are differences in the average behaviour across the two ensembles, the new simulation results are not fundamentally different from the PMIP3-CMIP5 results. Evaluation of large-scale climate features, such as land–sea contrast and polar amplification, confirms that the models capture these well and within the uncertainty of the paleoclimate reconstructions. Nevertheless, regional climate changes are less well simulated: the models underestimate extratropical cooling, particularly in winter, and precipitation changes. These results point to the utility of using paleoclimate simulations to understand the mechanisms of climate change and evaluate model performance

A multi-model assessment of the early last deglaciation (PMIP4 LDv1): a meltwater perspective

The last deglaciation (∼20–11 ka BP) is a period of a major, long-term climate transition from a glacial to interglacial state that features multiple centennial- to decadal-scale abrupt climate variations whose root cause is still not fully understood. To better understand this time period, the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) has provided a framework for an internationally coordinated endeavour in simulating the last deglaciation whilst encompassing a broad range of models. Here, we present a multi-model intercomparison of 17 transient simulations of the early part of the last deglaciation (∼20–15 ka BP) from nine different climate models spanning a range of model complexities and uncertain boundary conditions and forcings. The numerous simulations available provide the opportunity to better understand the chain of events and mechanisms of climate changes between 20 and 15 ka BP and our collective ability to simulate them. We conclude that the amount of freshwater forcing and whether it follows the ice sheet reconstruction or induces an inferred Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) history, heavily impacts the deglacial climate evolution for each simulation rather than differences in the model physics. The course of the deglaciation is consistent between simulations except when the freshwater forcing is above 0.1 Sv – at least 70 % of the simulations agree that there is warming by 15 ka BP in most places excluding the location of meltwater input. For simulations with freshwater forcings that exceed 0.1 Sv from 18 ka BP, warming is delayed in the North Atlantic and surface air temperature correlations with AMOC strength are much higher. However, we find that the state of the AMOC coming out of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) also plays a key role in the AMOC sensitivity to model forcings. In addition, we show that the response of each model to the chosen meltwater scenario depends largely on the sensitivity of the model to the freshwater forcing and other aspects of the experimental design (e.g. CO2 forcing or ice sheet reconstruction). The results provide insight into the ability of our models to simulate the first part of the deglaciation and how choices between uncertain boundary conditions and forcings, with a focus on freshwater fluxes, can impact model outputs. We can use these findings as helpful insight in the design of future simulations of this time period