Development and validation of a multivariable prediction model for missed HIV health care provider visits in a large US clinical cohort

Background: Identifying individuals at high risk of missing HIV care provider visits could support proactive intervention. Previous prediction models for missed visits have not incorporated data beyond the individual level. Methods: We developed prediction models for missed visits among people with HIV (PWH) with ≥1 follow-up visit in the Center for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems from 2010 to 2016. Individual-level (medical record data and patient-reported outcomes), community-level (American Community Survey), HIV care site-level (standardized clinic leadership survey), and structural-level (HIV criminalization laws, Medicaid expansion, and state AIDS Drug Assistance Program budget) predictors were included. Models were developed using random forests with 10-fold cross-validation; candidate models with the highest area under the curve (AUC) were identified. Results: Data from 382 432 visits among 20 807 PWH followed for a median of 3.8 years were included; the median age was 44 years, 81% were male, 37% were Black, 15% reported injection drug use, and 57% reported male-to-male sexual contact. The highest AUC was 0.76, and the strongest predictors were at the individual level (prior visit adherence, age, CD4+ count) and community level (proportion living in poverty, unemployed, and of Black race). A simplified model, including readily accessible variables available in a web-based calculator, had a slightly lower AUC of .700. Conclusions: Prediction models validated using multilevel data had a similar AUC to previous models developed using only individual-level data. The strongest predictors were individual-level variables, particularly prior visit adherence, though community-level variables were also predictive. Absent additional data, PWH with previous missed visits should be prioritized by interventions to improve visit adherence

Economics methods in Cochrane systematic reviews of health promotion and public health related interventions.

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Anti-Search for the Glueball Candidate f_J(2220) in Two-Photon Interactions

Using 13.3 fb^{-1} of e^+e^- data recorded with the CLEO II and CLEO II.V detector configurations at CESR, we have searched for f_J(2220) decays to K^0_{S} K^0_{S} in untagged two-photon interactions. We report an upper limit on the product of the two-photon partial width and the branching fraction, Gamma_gamma gamma cdot B (f_J(2220) to K^0_{S} K^0_{S}) of less than 1.1 eV at the 95% C.L: systematic uncertainties are included. This dataset is four times larger than that used in the previous CLEO publication.Comment: 10 pages postscript, also available through http://w4.lns.cornell.edu/public/CLNS, Submitted to PRD (R

Effect of Depth and Duration of Cooling on Death or Disability at Age 18 Months Among Neonates With Hypoxic-Ischemic Encephalopathy: A Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance Hypothermia for 72 hours at 33.5°C for neonatal hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy reduces death or disability, but rates continue to be high. Objective To determine if cooling for 120 hours or to a temperature of 32.0°C reduces death or disability at age 18 months in infants with hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy. Design, Setting, and Participants Randomized 2 × 2 factorial clinical trial in neonates (≥36 weeks’ gestation) with hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy at 18 US centers in the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Neonatal Research Network between October 2010 and January 2016. Interventions A total of 364 neonates were randomly assigned to 4 hypothermia groups: 33.5°C for 72 hours (n = 95), 32.0°C for 72 hours (n = 90), 33.5°C for 120 hours (n = 96), or 32.0°C for 120 hours (n = 83). Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcome was death or moderate or severe disability at 18 to 22 months of age adjusted for center and level of encephalopathy. Severe disability included any of Bayley Scales of Infant Development III cognitive score less than 70, Gross Motor Function Classification System (GMFCS) level of 3 to 5, or blindness or hearing loss despite amplification. Moderate disability was defined as a cognitive score of 70 to 84 and either GMFCS level 2, active seizures, or hearing with amplification. Results The trial was stopped for safety and futility in November 2013 after 364 of the planned 726 infants were enrolled. Among 347 infants (95%) with primary outcome data (mean age at follow-up, 20.7 [SD, 3.5] months; 42% female), death or disability occurred in 56 of 176 (31.8%) cooled for 72 hours and 54 of 171 (31.6%) cooled for 120 hours (adjusted risk ratio, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.68-1.25]; adjusted absolute risk difference, −1.0% [95% CI, −10.2% to 8.1%]) and in 59 of 185 (31.9%) cooled to 33.5°C and 51 of 162 (31.5%) cooled to 32.0°C (adjusted risk ratio, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.68-1.26]; adjusted absolute risk difference, −3.1% [95% CI, −12.3% to 6.1%]). A significant interaction between longer and deeper cooling was observed (P = .048), with primary outcome rates of 29.3% at 33.5°C for 72 hours, 34.5% at 32.0°C for 72 hours, 34.4% at 33.5°C for 120 hours, and 28.2% at 32.0°C for 120 hours. Conclusions and Relevance Among term neonates with moderate or severe hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy, cooling for longer than 72 hours, cooling to lower than 33.5°C, or both did not reduce death or moderate or severe disability at 18 months of age. However, the trial may be underpowered, and an interaction was found between longer and deeper cooling. These results support the current regimen of cooling for 72 hours at 33.5°C

Bose-Einstein Correlations of Three Charged Pions in Hadronic Z^0 Decays

Bose-Einstein Correlations (BEC) of three identical charged pions were studied in 4 x 10^6 hadronic Z^0 decays recorded with the OPAL detector at LEP. The genuine three-pion correlations, corrected for the Coulomb effect, were separated from the known two-pion correlations by a new subtraction procedure. A significant genuine three-pion BEC enhancement near threshold was observed having an emitter source radius of r_3 = 0.580 +/- 0.004 (stat.) +/- 0.029 (syst.) fm and a strength of \lambda_3 = 0.504 +/- 0.010 (stat.) +/- 0.041 (syst.). The Coulomb correction was found to increase the \lambda_3 value by \~9% and to reduce r_3 by ~6%. The measured \lambda_3 corresponds to a value of 0.707 +/- 0.014 (stat.) +/- 0.078 (syst.) when one takes into account the three-pion sample purity. A relation between the two-pion and the three-pion source parameters is discussed.Comment: 19 pages, LaTeX, 5 eps figures included, accepted by Eur. Phys. J.

Simplified Models for LHC New Physics Searches

This document proposes a collection of simplified models relevant to the design of new-physics searches at the LHC and the characterization of their results. Both ATLAS and CMS have already presented some results in terms of simplified models, and we encourage them to continue and expand this effort, which supplements both signature-based results and benchmark model interpretations. A simplified model is defined by an effective Lagrangian describing the interactions of a small number of new particles. Simplified models can equally well be described by a small number of masses and cross-sections. These parameters are directly related to collider physics observables, making simplified models a particularly effective framework for evaluating searches and a useful starting point for characterizing positive signals of new physics. This document serves as an official summary of the results from the "Topologies for Early LHC Searches" workshop, held at SLAC in September of 2010, the purpose of which was to develop a set of representative models that can be used to cover all relevant phase space in experimental searches. Particular emphasis is placed on searches relevant for the first ~50-500 pb-1 of data and those motivated by supersymmetric models. This note largely summarizes material posted at http://lhcnewphysics.org/, which includes simplified model definitions, Monte Carlo material, and supporting contacts within the theory community. We also comment on future developments that may be useful as more data is gathered and analyzed by the experiments.Comment: 40 pages, 2 figures. This document is the official summary of results from "Topologies for Early LHC Searches" workshop (SLAC, September 2010). Supplementary material can be found at http://lhcnewphysics.or

All grown up? The fate after 15 years of a quarter of a million UK firms born in 1998

The theory of firm growth is in a rather unsatisfactory state. However, the analysis of large firm-level datasets which have become available in recent years allows us to begin building an evidence base which can, in turn, be used to underpin the development of more satisfactory theory. Here we study the 239 thousand UK private sector firms born in 1998 over their first 15 years of life. A first, and quite striking, finding is the extraordinary force of mortality. By age 15, 90% of the UK firms born in 1998 are dead, and, for those surviving to age 15, the hazard of death is still about 10% a year. The chance of death is related to the size and growth of firms in an interesting way. Whilst the hazard rate after 15 years is largely independent of size at birth, it is strongly affected by the current (age 14) size. In particular, firms with more than five employees are half as likely to die in the next year as firms with less than five employees. A second important finding is that most firms, even those which survive to age 15, do not grow very much. By age 15 more than half the 26,000 survivors still have less than five jobs. In other words, the growth paths – what we call the ‘growth trajectories’ – of most of the 26,000 survivors are pretty flat. However, of the firms that do grow, firms born smaller grow faster than those born larger. Another striking finding is that growth is heavily concentrated in the first five years. Whilst growth does continue, even up to age 15, each year after age five it involves only a relatively small proportion of firms. Finally, there are two groups of survivors which contribute importantly to job creation. Some are those born relatively large (with more than 20 jobs) although their growth rate is quite modest. More striking though, is a very small group of firms born very small with less than five jobs (about 5% of all survivors) which contribute a substantial proportion (more than one third) of the jobs added to the cohort total by age 15

Alterations in Genes of the EGFR Signaling Pathway and Their Relationship to EGFR Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor Sensitivity in Lung Cancer Cell Lines

Deregulation of EGFR signaling is common in non-small cell lung cancers (NSCLC) and this finding led to the development of tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) that are highly effective in a subset of NSCLC. Mutations of EGFR (mEGFR) and copy number gains (CNGs) of EGFR (gEGFR) and HER2 (gHER2) have been reported to predict for TKI response. Mutations in KRAS (mKRAS) are associated with primary resistance to TKIs.We investigated the relationship between mutations, CNGs and response to TKIs in a large panel of NSCLC cell lines. Genes studied were EGFR, HER2, HER3 HER4, KRAS, BRAF and PIK3CA. Mutations were detected by sequencing, while CNGs were determined by quantitative PCR (qPCR), fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) and array comparative genomic hybridization (aCGH). IC50 values for the TKIs gefitinib (Iressa) and erlotinib (Tarceva) were determined by MTS assay. For any of the seven genes tested, mutations (39/77, 50.6%), copy number gains (50/77, 64.9%) or either (65/77, 84.4%) were frequent in NSCLC lines. Mutations of EGFR (13%) and KRAS (24.7%) were frequent, while they were less frequent for the other genes. The three techniques for determining CNG were well correlated, and qPCR data were used for further analyses. CNGs were relatively frequent for EGFR and KRAS in adenocarcinomas. While mutations were largely mutually exclusive, CNGs were not. EGFR and KRAS mutant lines frequently demonstrated mutant allele specific imbalance i.e. the mutant form was usually in great excess compared to the wild type form. On a molar basis, sensitivity to gefitinib and erlotinib were highly correlated. Multivariate analyses led to the following results: 1. mEGFR and gEGFR and gHER2 were independent factors related to gefitinib sensitivity, in descending order of importance. 2. mKRAS was associated with increased in vitro resistance to gefitinib.Our in vitro studies confirm and extend clinical observations and demonstrate the relative importance of both EGFR mutations and CNGs and HER2 CNGs in the sensitivity to TKIs

Gene expression profiling for molecular distinction and characterization of laser captured primary lung cancers

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We examined gene expression profiles of tumor cells from 29 untreated patients with lung cancer (10 adenocarcinomas (AC), 10 squamous cell carcinomas (SCC), and 9 small cell lung cancer (SCLC)) in comparison to 5 samples of normal lung tissue (NT). The European and American methodological quality guidelines for microarray experiments were followed, including the stipulated use of laser capture microdissection for separation and purification of the lung cancer tumor cells from surrounding tissue.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Based on differentially expressed genes, different lung cancer samples could be distinguished from each other and from normal lung tissue using hierarchical clustering. Comparing AC, SCC and SCLC with NT, we found 205, 335 and 404 genes, respectively, that were at least 2-fold differentially expressed (estimated false discovery rate: < 2.6%). Different lung cancer subtypes had distinct molecular phenotypes, which also reflected their biological characteristics. Differentially expressed genes in human lung tumors which may be of relevance in the respective lung cancer subtypes were corroborated by quantitative real-time PCR.</p> <p>Genetic programming (GP) was performed to construct a classifier for distinguishing between AC, SCC, SCLC, and NT. Forty genes, that could be used to correctly classify the tumor or NT samples, have been identified. In addition, all samples from an independent test set of 13 further tumors (AC or SCC) were also correctly classified.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The data from this research identified potential candidate genes which could be used as the basis for the development of diagnostic tools and lung tumor type-specific targeted therapies.</p

Investigating the genetic architecture of dementia with Lewy bodies: a two-stage genome-wide association study

Background Dementia with Lewy bodies is the second most common form of dementia in elderly people but has been overshadowed in the research field, partly because of similarities between dementia with Lewy bodies, Parkinson’s disease, and Alzheimer’s disease. So far, to our knowledge, no large-scale genetic study of dementia with Lewy bodies has been done. To better understand the genetic basis of dementia with Lewy bodies, we have done a genome-wide association study with the aim of identifying genetic risk factors for this disorder. Methods In this two-stage genome-wide association study, we collected samples from white participants of European ancestry who had been diagnosed with dementia with Lewy bodies according to established clinical or pathological criteria. In the discovery stage (with the case cohort recruited from 22 centres in ten countries and the controls derived from two publicly available database of Genotypes and Phenotypes studies [phs000404.v1.p1 and phs000982.v1.p1] in the USA), we performed genotyping and exploited the recently established Haplotype Reference Consortium panel as the basis for imputation. Pathological samples were ascertained following autopsy in each individual brain bank, whereas clinical samples were collected by clinical teams after clinical examination. There was no specific timeframe for collection of samples. We did association analyses in all participants with dementia with Lewy bodies, and also in only participants with pathological diagnosis. In the replication stage, we performed genotyping of significant and suggestive results from the discovery stage. Lastly, we did a meta-analysis of both stages under a fixed-effects model and used logistic regression to test for association in each stage. Findings This study included 1743 patients with dementia with Lewy bodies (1324 with pathological diagnosis) and 4454 controls (1216 patients with dementia with Lewy bodies vs 3791 controls in the discovery stage; 527 vs 663 in the replication stage). Results confirm previously reported associations: APOE (rs429358; odds ratio [OR] 2·40, 95% CI 2·14–2·70; p=1·05 × 10–⁴⁸), SNCA (rs7681440; OR 0·73, 0·66–0·81; p=6·39 × 10–¹⁰), and GBA (rs35749011; OR 2·55, 1·88–3·46; p=1·78 × 10–⁹). They also provide some evidence for a novel candidate locus, namely CNTN1 (rs7314908; OR 1·51, 1·27–1·79; p=2·21 × 10–⁶); further replication will be important. Additionally, we estimate the heritable component of dementia with Lewy bodies to be about 36%. Interpretation Despite the small sample size for a genome-wide association study, and acknowledging the potential biases from ascertaining samples from multiple locations, we present the most comprehensive and well powered genetic study in dementia with Lewy bodies so far. These data show that common genetic variability has a role in the disease