Mathematics, statistics and archaeometry: the past 50 years or so

This review of developments in the use of mathematics and statistics in archaeometry over the past 50 years is partial, personal and 'broad-brush'. The view is expressed that it is in the past 30 years or so that the major developments have taken place. The view is also expressed that, with the exception of methods for analysing radiocarbon dates and increased computational power, mathematical and statistical methods that are currently used, and found to be useful in widespread areas of application such as provenance studies, don't differ fundamentally from what was being done 30 years ago

Constraints on regional drivers of relative sea-level change around Cordova, Alaska

New records of paleoenvironmental change from two lakes near Cordova, south central Alaska, combined with analysis of previously reported sediment sequences from the adjacent Copper River Delta, provide quantitative constraints on a range of Earth system processes through their expression in relative sea-level change. Basal sediment ages from Upper Whitshed Lake indicate ice-free conditions by at least 14,140 – 15,040 cal yr BP. While Upper and Lower Whitshed Lakes provide only upper limits to relative sea-level change, interbedded layers of freshwater peat and intertidal silt extending more than 11 m below present sea level in Copper River Delta indicate net submergence over the last 6000 years and multiple earthquake deformation cycles. In contrast, Lower Whitshed Lake, situated just above present high tide level, records only one episode of marine sedimentation, commencing AD 1120 – 1500, that we interpret as the result of isostatic subsidence due to Little Ice Age mass accumulation of the Chugach Mountain glaciers. Lower Whitshed Lake also records isostatic uplift at the end of the Little Ice Age before the end of marine sedimentation caused by ~1.5 m coseismic uplift in the great Alaska earthquake of AD 1964. We successfully explain the records of relative sea-level change from both Copper River Delta and the Whitshed Lakes by integrating the effects of eustatic sea-level rise, glacial isostasy, earthquake deformation cycles, sediment loading, sediment compaction and late Holocene changes in glacier mass into a single model. This approach provides initial quantitative constraints on the individual contributions of these processes. Taking reasonable estimates of eustasy, post-Last Glacial Maximum and Neoglacial glacial isostatic adjustment and a simple earthquake deformation cycle, we demonstrate that sediment loading and sediment compaction are both contributors to relative sea-level rise at Copper River Delta, together producing subsidence averaging approximately 1.2 mm yr-1 over the mid to late Holocene. Further isolation basin studies have the potential to greatly improve our understanding of the individual contributions of these processes in this highly dynamic region

A reconciled solution of Meltwater Pulse 1A sources using sea-level fingerprinting

The most rapid global sea-level rise event of the last deglaciation, Meltwater Pulse 1A (MWP-1A), occurred ∼14,650 years ago. Considerable uncertainty regarding the sources of meltwater limits understanding of the relationship between MWP-1A and the concurrent fast-changing climate. Here we present a data-driven inversion approach, using a glacio-isostatic adjustment model to invert for the sources of MWP-1A via sea-level constraints from six geographically distributed sites. The results suggest contributions from Antarctica, 1.3 m (0–5.9 m; 95% probability), Scandinavia, 4.6 m (3.2–6.4 m) and North America, 12.0 m (5.6–15.4 m), giving a global mean sea-level rise of 17.9 m (15.7–20.2 m) in 500 years. Only a North American dominant scenario successfully predicts the observed sea-level change across our six sites and an Antarctic dominant scenario is firmly refuted by Scottish isolation basin records. Our sea-level based results therefore reconcile with field-based ice-sheet reconstructions

Reconstruction of the palaeo‐sea level of Britain and Ireland arising from empirical constraints of ice extent: implications for regional sea level forecasts and North American ice sheet volume

Reconstructions of palaeo-sea level are vital for predicting future sea level change and constraining palaeo-ice sheet reconstructions, as well as being useful for a wide array of applications across Quaternary Science. Previous reconstructions of the palaeo-sea level of Britain and Ireland relied on a circular tuning of glacio-isostatic models: input ice sheet thicknesses and extents were iteratively altered to fit relative sea level data. Here we break that circularity by utilizing new data from the BRITICE-CHRONO project, which constrains the position of the British–Irish ice sheet margin through time, and we compare derived glacio-isostatic modelling to the rich relative sea level record. We test a combination of plausible ice thickness scenarios which account for the uncertainty of ice margin position over the North Sea, demonstrating the region where regional sea level data could distinguish between different glaciation scenarios. Our optimal reconstruction is then combined with several global-scale reconstructions. As the signal of the British–Irish Ice Sheet is constrained, we demonstrate how the relative sea level record of Britain and Ireland can be used to test reconstructions of far-field ice sheets (e.g. Antarctica, Eurasia and the Laurentide). The derived palaeo-topography data are likely to be useful for multiple disciplines. Finally, our improved method of sea level reconstruction impacts predictions of contemporary vertical land motion

Signal peptide mutations in RANK prevent downstream activation of NF-κB

Familial expansile osteolysis and related disorders are caused by heterozygous tandem duplication mutations in the signal peptide region of the gene encoding receptor activator of NF-κB (RANK), a receptor critical for osteoclast formation and function. Previous studies have shown that overexpression of these mutant proteins causes constitutive activation of NF-κB signaling in vitro, and it has been assumed that this accounts for the focal osteolytic lesions that are seen in vivo. We show here that constitutive activation of NF-κB occurred in HEK293 cells overexpressing wild-type or mutant RANK but not in stably transfected cell lines expressing low levels of each RANK gene. Importantly, only cells expressing wild-type RANK demonstrated ligand-dependent activation of NF-κB. When overexpressed, mutant RANK did not localize to the plasma membrane but localized to extensive areas of organized smooth endoplasmic reticulum, whereas, as expected, wild-type RANK was detected at the plasma membrane and in the Golgi apparatus. This intracellular accumulation of the mutant proteins is probably the result of lack of signal peptide cleavage because, using two in vitro translation systems, we demonstrate that the mutations in RANK prevent cleavage of the signal peptide. In conclusion, signal peptide mutations lead to accumulation of RANK in the endoplasmic reticulum and prevent direct activation by RANK ligand. These results strongly suggest that the increased osteoclast formation/activity caused by these mutations cannot be explained by studying the homozygous phenotype alone but requires further detailed investigation of the heterozygous expression of the mutant RANK proteins. © 2011 American Society for Bone and Mineral Researc

Inception of a global atlas of sea levels since the Last Glacial Maximum

Determining the rates, mechanisms, and geographic variability of relative sea-level (RSL) change following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) provides insight into the sensitivity of ice sheets to climate change, the response of the solid Earth and gravity field to ice-mass redistribution, and constrains statistical and physical models used to project future sea-level rise. To do so in a scientifically robust way requires standardized datasets that enable broad spatial comparisons that minimize bias. As part of a larger goal to develop a unified, spatially-comprehensive post-LGM global RSL database, in this special issue we provide a standardized global synthesis of regional RSL data that resulted from the first ‘Geographic variability of HOLocene relative SEA level (HOLSEA)’ meetings in Mt Hood, Oregon (2016) and St Lucia, South Africa (2017). The HOLSEA meetings brought together sea-level researchers to agree upon a consistent protocol to standardize, interpret, and incorporate realistic uncertainties of RSL data. This special issue provides RSL data from ten geographical regions including new databases from Atlantic Europe and the Russian Arctic and revised/expanded databases from Atlantic Canada, the British Isles, the Netherlands, the western Mediterranean, the Adriatic, Israel, Peninsular Malaysia, Southeast Asia, and the Indian Ocean. In total, the database derived from this special issue includes 5634 (5290 validated) index (n = 3202) and limiting points (n = 2088) that span from ∼20,000 years ago to present. Progress in improving the standardization of sea-level databases has also been accompanied by advancements in statistical and analytical methods used to infer spatial patterns and rates of RSL change from geological data that have a spatially and temporally sparse distribution and geochronological and elevational uncertainties. This special issue marks the inception of a unified, spatially-comprehensive post-LGM global RSL database

‘Sons of athelings given to the earth’: Infant Mortality within Anglo-Saxon Mortuary Geography

FOR 20 OR MORE YEARS early Anglo-Saxon archaeologists have believed children are underrepresented in the cemetery evidence. They conclude that excavation misses small bones, that previous attitudes to reporting overlook the very young, or that infants and children were buried elsewhere. This is all well and good, but we must be careful of oversimplifying compound social and cultural responses to childhood and infant mortality. Previous approaches have offered methodological quandaries in the face of this under-representation. However, proportionally more infants were placed in large cemeteries and sometimes in specific zones. This trend is statistically significant and is therefore unlikely to result entirely from preservation or excavation problems. Early medieval cemeteries were part of regional mortuary geographies and provided places to stage events that promoted social cohesion across kinship systems extending over tribal territories. This paper argues that patterns in early Anglo-Saxon infant burial were the result of female mobility. Many women probably travelled locally to marry in a union which reinforced existing social networks. For an expectant mother, however, the safest place to give birth was with experience women in her maternal home. Infant identities were affected by personal and legal association with their mother’s parental kindred, so when an infant died in childbirth or months and years later, it was their mother’s identity which dictated burial location. As a result, cemeteries central to tribal identities became places to bury the sons and daughters of a regional tribal aristocracy

Quantitative fetal fibronectin and cervical length to predict preterm birth in asymptomatic women with previous cervical surgery.

BACKGROUND: Quantitative fetal fibronectin testing has demonstrated accuracy for prediction of spontaneous preterm birth in asymptomatic women with a history of preterm birth. Predictive accuracy in women with previous cervical surgery (a potentially different risk mechanism) is not known. OBJECTIVE: We sought to compare the predictive accuracy of cervicovaginal fluid quantitative fetal fibronectin and cervical length testing in asymptomatic women with previous cervical surgery to that in women with 1 previous preterm birth. STUDY DESIGN: We conducted a prospective blinded secondary analysis of a larger observational study of cervicovaginal fluid quantitative fetal fibronectin concentration in asymptomatic women measured with a Hologic 10Q system (Hologic, Marlborough, MA). Prediction of spontaneous preterm birth (<30, <34, and <37 weeks) with cervicovaginal fluid quantitative fetal fibronectin concentration in primiparous women who had undergone at least 1 invasive cervical procedure (n = 473) was compared with prediction in women who had previous spontaneous preterm birth, preterm prelabor rupture of membranes, or late miscarriage (n = 821). Relationship with cervical length was explored. RESULTS: The rate of spontaneous preterm birth <34 weeks in the cervical surgery group was 3% compared with 9% in previous spontaneous preterm birth group. Receiver operating characteristic curves comparing quantitative fetal fibronectin for prediction at all 3 gestational end points were comparable between the cervical surgery and previous spontaneous preterm birth groups (34 weeks: area under the curve, 0.78 [95% confidence interval 0.64-0.93] vs 0.71 [95% confidence interval 0.64-0.78]; P = .39). Prediction of spontaneous preterm birth using cervical length compared with quantitative fetal fibronectin for prediction of preterm birth <34 weeks of gestation offered similar prediction (area under the curve, 0.88 [95% confidence interval 0.79-0.96] vs 0.77 [95% confidence interval 0.62-0.92], P = .12 in the cervical surgery group; and 0.77 [95% confidence interval 0.70-0.84] vs 0.74 [95% confidence interval 0.67-0.81], P = .32 in the previous spontaneous preterm birth group). CONCLUSION: Prediction of spontaneous preterm birth using cervicovaginal fluid quantitative fetal fibronectin in asymptomatic women with cervical surgery is valid, and has comparative accuracy to that in women with a history of spontaneous preterm birth

Investigating mitochondrial DNA relationships in Neolithic Western Europe through serial coalescent simulations

Recent ancient DNA studies on European Neolithic human populations have provided persuasive evidence of a major migration of farmers originating from the Aegean, accompanied by sporadic hunter-gatherer admixture into early Neolithic populations, but increasing toward the Late Neolithic. In this context, ancient mitochondrial DNA data collected from the Neolithic necropolis of Gurgy (Paris Basin, France), the largest mitochondrial DNA sample obtained from a single archeological site for the Early/Middle Neolithic period, indicate little differentiation from farmers associated to both the Danubian and Mediterranean Neolithic migration routes, as well as from Western European hunter-gatherers. To test whether this pattern of differentiation could arise in a single unstructured population by genetic drift alone, we used serial coalescent simulations. We explore female effective population size parameter combinations at the time of the colonization of Europe 45000 years ago and the most recent of the Neolithic samples analyzed in this study 5900 years ago, and identify conditions under which population panmixia between hunter-gatherers/Early-Middle Neolithic farmers and Gurgy cannot be rejected. In relation to other studies on the current debate of the origins of Europeans, these results suggest increasing hunter-gatherer admixture into farmers' group migrating farther west in Europe.European Journal of Human Genetics advance online publication, 28 December 2016; doi:10.1038/ejhg.2016.180