Retrospective Analog Year Analyses Using NASA Satellite Data to Improve USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

The USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) is responsible for monitoring weather and climate impacts on domestic and foreign crop development. One of WAOB's primary goals is to determine the net cumulative effect of weather and climate anomalies on final crop yields. To this end, a broad array of information is consulted, including maps, charts, and time series of recent weather, climate, and crop observations; numerical output from weather and crop models; and reports from the press, USDA attach s, and foreign governments. The resulting agricultural weather assessments are published in the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin, to keep farmers, policy makers, and commercial agricultural interests informed of weather and climate impacts on agriculture. Because both the amount and timing of precipitation significantly affect crop yields, WAOB often uses precipitation time series to identify growing seasons with similar weather patterns and help estimate crop yields for the current growing season, based on observed yields in analog years. Historically, these analog years are visually identified; however, the qualitative nature of this method sometimes precludes the definitive identification of the best analog year. Thus, one goal of this study is to derive a more rigorous, statistical approach for identifying analog years, based on a modified coefficient of determination, termed the analog index (AI). A second goal is to compare the performance of AI for time series derived from surface-based observations vs. satellite-based measurements (NASA TRMM and other data)

Managing weather and climate risks to agriculture in North America, Central America and the Caribbean

AbstractIn recent decades, numerous weather- and climate-related natural disasters have impacted North America, Central America, and the Caribbean, repeatedly demonstrating how vulnerable local agriculture is to extreme episodic events. Given this recent history, and expectations that the frequency and intensity of some episodic events will increase with climate change, it is becoming increasingly important for farmers to proactively manage weather and climate risks to agriculture to protect their livelihoods. Some farmers in this region already apply various strategies to help reduce weather and climate risks and uncertainties, including farming in multiple locations, diversifying crops and varieties, seeking alternative sources of income, and purchasing crop insurance. Such efforts often help farmers maintain a more stable income while also protecting and preserving the productivity of the land. Other farmers, however, have failed to implement basic risk management strategies despite the clear benefits. Reasons for these failures can be attributed to inadequate farmer education and training, a lack of tools to help facilitate the practical application of risk management concepts, and poor communications between the agrometeorological and farming communities. The agrometeorological community can help overcome these obstacles by building upon existing efforts that have successfully educated farmers about weather and climate risks to agriculture and have equipped farmers with the data, tools, and applications necessary to manage these risks. Farmer input is critical to preparing effective educational and training materials and developing user-friendly risk management tools. The agrometeorological community should solicit input from farmers regularly to ensure that farmers are obtaining the information necessary to effectively manage weather and climate risks to agriculture

Integrating NASA Satellite Data Into USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board Decision Making Environment To Improve Agricultural Estimates

The USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) is responsible for monitoring weather and climate impacts on domestic and foreign crop development. One of WAOB's primary goals is to determine the net cumulative effect of weather and climate anomalies on final crop yields. To this end, a broad array of information is consulted. The resulting agricultural weather assessments are published in the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin, to keep farmers, policy makers, and commercial agricultural interests informed of weather and climate impacts on agriculture. The goal of the current project is to improve WAOB estimates by integrating NASA satellite precipitation and soil moisture observations into WAOB's decision making environment. Precipitation (Level 3 gridded) is from the TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA). Soil moisture (Level 2 swath and Level 3 gridded) is generated by the Land Parameter Retrieval Model (LPRM) and operationally produced by the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GBS DISC). A root zone soil moisture (RZSM) product is also generated, via assimilation of the Level 3 LPRM data by a land surface model (part of a related project). Data services to be available for these products include GeoTIFF, GDS (GrADS Data Server), WMS (Web Map Service), WCS (Web Coverage Service), and NASA Giovanni. Project benchmarking is based on retrospective analyses of WAOB analog year comparisons. The latter are between a given year and historical years with similar weather patterns and estimated crop yields. An analog index (AI) was developed to introduce a more rigorous, statistical approach for identifying analog years. Results thus far show that crop yield estimates derived from TMPA precipitation data are closer to measured yields than are estimates derived from surface-based precipitation measurements. Work is continuing to include LPRM surface soil moisture data and model-assimilated RZSM

Estimating marginal treatment effects from observational studies and indirect treatment comparisons: When are standardization-based methods preferable to those based on propensity score weighting?

In light of newly developed standardization methods, we evaluate, via simulation study, how propensity score weighting and standardization -based approaches compare for obtaining estimates of the marginal odds ratio and the marginal hazard ratio. Specifically, we consider how the two approaches compare in two different scenarios: (1) in a single observational study, and (2) in an anchored indirect treatment comparison (ITC) of randomized controlled trials. We present the material in such a way so that the matching-adjusted indirect comparison (MAIC) and the (novel) simulated treatment comparison (STC) methods in the ITC setting may be viewed as analogous to the propensity score weighting and standardization methods in the single observational study setting. Our results suggest that current recommendations for conducting ITCs can be improved and underscore the importance of adjusting for purely prognostic factors.Comment: 33 page

Pathological and Transcriptome Changes in the ReninAAV db/db uNx Model of Advanced Diabetic Kidney Disease Exhibit Features of Human Disease

The ReninAAV db/db uNx model of diabetic kidney disease (DKD) exhibits hallmarks of advanced human disease, including progressive elevations in albuminuria and serum creatinine, loss of glomerular filtration rate, and pathological changes. Microarray analysis of renal transcriptome changes were more similar to human DKD when compared to db/db eNOS−/− model. The model responds to treatment with arterial pressure lowering (lisinopril) or glycemic control (rosiglitazone) at early stages of disease. We hypothesized the ReninAAV db/db uNx model with advanced disease would have residual disease after treatment with lisinopril, rosiglitazone, or combination of both. To test this, ReninAAV db/db uNx mice with advanced disease were treated with lisinopril, rosiglitazone, or combination of both for 10 weeks. All treatment groups showed significant lowering of urinary albumin to creatinine ratio compared to baseline; however, only combination group exhibited lowering of serum creatinine. Treatment improved renal pathological scores compared to baseline values with residual disease evident in all treatment groups when compared to db/m controls. Gene expression analysis by TaqMan supported pathological changes with increased fibrotic and inflammatory markers. The results further validate this model of DKD in which residual disease is present when treated with agents to lower arterial pressure and glycemic control

Design, synthesis, and evaluation of curcumin-derived arylheptanoids for glioblastoma and neuroblastoma cytotoxicity

Using an innovative approach toward multiple carbon-carbon bond-formations that relies on the multifaceted catalytic properties of titanocene complexes we constructed a series of C1-C7 analogs of curcumin for evaluation as brain and peripheral nervous system anti-cancer agents. C2-Arylated analogs proved efficacious against neuroblastoma (SK-N-SH & SK-N-FI) and glioblastoma multiforme (U87MG) cell lines. Similar inhibitory activity was also evident in p53 knockdown U87MG GBM cells. Furthermore, lead compounds showed limited growth inhibition in vitro against normal primary human CD34+hematopoietic progenitor cells. Taken together, the present findings indicate that these curcumin analogs are viable lead compounds for the development of new central and peripheral nervous system cancer chemotherapeutics with the potential for little effects on normal hematopoietic progenitor cells

Optical systems integrated modeling

An integrated modeling capability that provides the tools by which entire optical systems and instruments can be simulated and optimized is a key technology development, applicable to all mission classes, especially astrophysics. Many of the future missions require optical systems that are physically much larger than anything flown before and yet must retain the characteristic sub-micron diffraction limited wavefront accuracy of their smaller precursors. It is no longer feasible to follow the path of 'cut and test' development; the sheer scale of these systems precludes many of the older techniques that rely upon ground evaluation of full size engineering units. The ability to accurately model (by computer) and optimize the entire flight system's integrated structural, thermal, and dynamic characteristics is essential. Two distinct integrated modeling capabilities are required. These are an initial design capability and a detailed design and optimization system. The content of an initial design package is shown. It would be a modular, workstation based code which allows preliminary integrated system analysis and trade studies to be carried out quickly by a single engineer or a small design team. A simple concept for a detailed design and optimization system is shown. This is a linkage of interface architecture that allows efficient interchange of information between existing large specialized optical, control, thermal, and structural design codes. The computing environment would be a network of large mainframe machines and its users would be project level design teams. More advanced concepts for detailed design systems would support interaction between modules and automated optimization of the entire system. Technology assessment and development plans for integrated package for initial design, interface development for detailed optimization, validation, and modeling research are presented

Assessment of Genetic Diversity of Bermudagrass (Cynodon dactylon) Using ISSR Markers

Bermudagrass (Cynodon spp.) is a major turfgrass for home lawns, public parks, golf courses and sport fields and is known to have originated in the Middle East. Morphological and physiological characteristics are not sufficient to differentiate some bermudagrass genotypes because the differences between them are often subtle and subjected to environmental influences. In this study, twenty seven bermudagrass accessions and introductions, mostly from different parts of Iran, were assayed by inter-simple sequence repeat (ISSR) markers to differentiate and explore their genetic relationships. Fourteen ISSR primers amplified 389 fragments of which 313 (80.5%) were polymorphic. The average polymorphism information content (PIC) was 0.328, which shows that the majority of primers are informative. Cluster analysis using the un-weighted paired group method with arithmetic average (UPGMA) method and Jaccard’s similarity coefficient (r = 0.828) grouped the accessions into six main clusters according to some degree to geographical origin, their chromosome number and some morphological characteristics. It can be concluded that there exists a wide genetic base of bermudograss in Iran and that ISSR markers are effective in determining genetic diversity and relationships among them

Potentiation of Carboplatin-Mediated DNA Damage by the Mdm2 Modulator Nutlin-3a in a Humanized Orthotopic Breast-to-Lung Metastatic Model

Triple-negative breast cancers (TNBC) are typically resistant to treatment, and strategies that build upon frontline therapy are needed. Targeting the murine double minute 2 (Mdm2) protein is an attractive approach, as Mdm2 levels are elevated in many therapy-refractive breast cancers. The Mdm2 protein-protein interaction inhibitor Nutlin-3a blocks the binding of Mdm2 to key signaling molecules such as p53 and p73α and can result in activation of cell death signaling pathways. In the present study, the therapeutic potential of carboplatin and Nutlin-3a to treat TNBC was investigated, as carboplatin is under evaluation in clinical trials for TNBC. In mutant p53 TMD231 TNBC cells, carboplatin and Nutlin-3a led to increased Mdm2 and was strongly synergistic in promoting cell death in vitro. Furthermore, sensitivity of TNBC cells to combination treatment was dependent on p73α. Following combination treatment, γH2AX increased and Mdm2 localized to a larger degree to chromatin compared with single-agent treatment, consistent with previous observations that Mdm2 binds to the Mre11/Rad50/Nbs1 complex associated with DNA and inhibits the DNA damage response. In vivo efficacy studies were conducted in the TMD231 orthotopic mammary fat pad model in NOD.Cg-Prkdc(scid)Il2rg(tm1Wjl)/SzJ (NSG) mice. Using an intermittent dosing schedule of combined carboplatin and Nutlin-3a, there was a significant reduction in primary tumor growth and lung metastases compared with vehicle and single-agent treatments. In addition, there was minimal toxicity to the bone marrow and normal tissues. These studies demonstrate that Mdm2 holds promise as a therapeutic target in combination with conventional therapy and may lead to new clinical therapies for TNBC