Assessing the Impact of Retreat Mechanisms in a Simple Antarctic Ice Sheet Model Using Bayesian Calibration

The response of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) to changing climate forcings is an important driver of sea-level changes. Anthropogenic climate change may drive a sizeable AIS tipping point response with subsequent increases in coastal flooding risks. Many studies analyzing flood risks use simple models to project the future responses of AIS and its sea-level contributions. These analyses have provided important new insights, but they are often silent on the effects of potentially important processes such as Marine Ice Sheet Instability (MISI) or Marine Ice Cliff Instability (MICI). These approximations can be well justified and result in more parsimonious and transparent model structures. This raises the question of how this approximation impacts hindcasts and projections. Here, we calibrate a previously published and relatively simple AIS model, which neglects the effects of MICI and regional characteristics, using a combination of observational constraints and a Bayesian inversion method. Specifically, we approximate the effects of missing MICI by comparing our results to those from expert assessments with more realistic models and quantify the bias during the last interglacial when MICI may have been triggered. Our results suggest that the model can approximate the process of MISI and reproduce the projected median melt from some previous expert assessments in the year 2100. Yet, our mean hindcast is roughly 3/4 of the observed data during the last interglacial period and our mean projection is roughly 1/6 and 1/10 of the mean from a model accounting for MICI in the year 2100. These results suggest that missing MICI and/or regional characteristics can lead to a low-bias during warming period AIS melting and hence a potential low-bias in projected sea levels and flood risks.Comment: v1: 16 pages, 4 figures, 7 supplementary files; v2: 15 pages, 4 figures, 7 supplementary files, corrected typos, revised title, updated according to revisions made through publication proces

Allocation of time in reading

How teachers allocated instructional time in reading classes served as the focus of this study. Twenty teachers were observed during reading sessions to answer two research questions. For question 1, how do teachers allocate time, observations indicated that teachers used class time in the following increments: reading and responding 35.47%; listening and discussing 24.89%; waiting 8.36%; completing skill development activities 20.28%; telling, writing, and narrating 7.52%; and devoting 3.47% of the remaining instructional time to other activities. Question 2, does time allocated for reading coordinated text exceed more than 50% of the total time designated for reading instruction, answer appeared to be no. Teachers observed in this study allocated only 35% of instructional time for children to read and respond to concentrated amounts of coordinated text. Recommended time allocations that stated that time reading should exceed the time allocated to all other reading class activities was not observed

Long-term Success of Stump Sprouts in High-graded Baldcypress-water Tupelo Swamps in the Mississippi Delta

Regeneration of baldcypress (Taxodium distichum (L.) Rich.) and water tupelo (Nyssa aquatica L.) in swamps of the deltaic plain of the Mississippi River are of major importance for ecosystem sustainability and forest management in the context of regional hydrological changes. Water tupelo often forms prolific sprouts from cut stumps, and baldcypress is one of few conifers to produce stump sprouts capable of becoming full-grown trees. Previous studies have addressed early survival of baldcypress stump sprouts, but have not addressed the likelihood of sprouts becoming an important component of mature stands. We surveyed stands in southeastern Louisiana that were partially logged 10–41 years ago to determine if stump sprouts are an important mechanism of regeneration. At each site we inventoried stumps and measured stump height and diameter, presence and number of sprouts, sprout height, and water depth.We determined age and diameter growth rate for the largest sprout fromeach stump from increment cores. The majority of stumps did not have surviving sprouts. Baldcypress sprout survival was about the same (median 10%) as previously found for stumps up to 7 years old, so it appears that, although mortality is high soon after sprouting, it is low after age 10.Water tupelo sprouting was rare at our sites but it was not clear whether this may have been because trees were not cut at our sample locations. Baldcypress stump sprouts were more likely to survive on shorter, smaller-diameter stumps, and baldcypress sprout growth was greatest on drier sites with less competition from overstory trees. Surviving baldcypress stump sprouts had high growth rates, but were not regularly spatially distributed within stands and many had advancing decay from stumps into sprouts

The impact of population heterogeneity on risk estimation in genetic counseling

BACKGROUND: Genetic counseling has been an important tool for evaluating and communicating disease susceptibility for decades, and it has been applied to predict risks for a wide class of hereditary disorders. Most diseases are complex in nature and are affected by multiple genes and environmental conditions; it is highly likely that DNA tests alone do not define all the genetic factors responsible for a disease, so that persons classified into the same risk group by DNA testing actually could have different disease susceptibilities. Ignorance of population heterogeneity may lead to biased risk estimates, whereas additional information on population heterogeneity may improve the precision of such estimates. METHODS: Although DNA tests are widely used, few studies have investigated the accuracy of the predicted risks. We examined the impact of population heterogeneity on predicted disease risks by simulation of three different heterogeneity scenarios and studied the precision and accuracy of the risks estimated from a logistic regression model that ignored population heterogeneity. Moreover, we also incorporated information about population heterogeneity into our original model and investigated the resulting improvement in the accuracy of risk estimation. RESULTS: We found that heterogeneity in one or more categories could lead to biased estimates not only in the "contaminated" categories but also in other homogeneous categories. Incorporating information about population heterogeneity into the original model greatly improved the accuracy of risk estimation. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings imply that without thorough knowledge about genetic basis of the disease, risks estimated from DNA tests may be misleading. Caution should be taken when evaluating the predicted risks obtained from genetic counseling. On the other hand, the improved accuracy of risk estimates after incorporating population heterogeneity information into the model did point out a promising direction for genetic counseling, since more and more new techniques are being invented and disease etiology is being better understood

Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the Zero Emissions Commitment from CO₂

The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global mean temperature expected to occur following the cessation of net CO2 emissions and as such is a critical parameter for calculating the remaining carbon budget. The Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) was established to gain a better understanding of the potential magnitude and sign of ZEC, in addition to the processes that underlie this metric. A total of 18 Earth system models of both full and intermediate complexity participated in ZECMIP. All models conducted an experiment where atmospheric CO2 concentration increases exponentially until 1000 PgC has been emitted. Thereafter emissions are set to zero and models are configured to allow free evolution of atmospheric CO2 concentration. Many models conducted additional second-priority simulations with different cumulative emission totals and an alternative idealized emissions pathway with a gradual transition to zero emissions. The inter-model range of ZEC 50 years after emissions cease for the 1000 PgC experiment is −0.36 to 0.29 ∘C, with a model ensemble mean of −0.07 ∘C, median of −0.05 ∘C, and standard deviation of 0.19 ∘C. Models exhibit a wide variety of behaviours after emissions cease, with some models continuing to warm for decades to millennia and others cooling substantially. Analysis shows that both the carbon uptake by the ocean and the terrestrial biosphere are important for counteracting the warming effect from the reduction in ocean heat uptake in the decades after emissions cease. This warming effect is difficult to constrain due to high uncertainty in the efficacy of ocean heat uptake. Overall, the most likely value of ZEC on multi-decadal timescales is close to zero, consistent with previous model experiments and simple theory

How does the tobacco industry attempt to influence marketing regulations? A systematic review

BACKGROUND: The Framework Convention on Tobacco Control makes a number of recommendations aimed at restricting the marketing of tobacco products. Tobacco industry political activity has been identified as an obstacle to Parties' development and implementation of these provisions. This study systematically reviews the existing literature on tobacco industry efforts to influence marketing regulations and develops taxonomies of 1) industry strategies and tactics and 2) industry frames and arguments. METHODS: Searches were conducted between April-July 2011, and updated in March 2013. Articles were included if they made reference to tobacco industry efforts to influence marketing regulations; supported claims with verifiable evidence; were written in English; and concerned the period 1990-2013. 48 articles met the review criteria. Narrative synthesis was used to combine the evidence. RESULTS: 56% of articles focused on activity in North America, Europe or Australasia, the rest focusing on Asia (17%), South America, Africa or transnational activity. Six main political strategies and four main frames were identified. The tobacco industry frequently claims that the proposed policy will have negative unintended consequences, that there are legal barriers to regulation, and that the regulation is unnecessary because, for example, industry does not market to youth or adheres to a voluntary code. The industry primarily conveys these arguments through direct and indirect lobbying, the promotion of voluntary codes and alternative policies, and the formation of alliances with other industrial sectors. The majority of tactics and arguments were used in multiple jurisdictions. CONCLUSIONS: Tobacco industry political activity is far more diverse than suggested by existing taxonomies of corporate political activity. Tactics and arguments are repeated across jurisdictions, suggesting that the taxonomies of industry tactics and arguments developed in this paper are generalisable to multiple jurisdictions and can be used to predict industry activity

Logging Affects Fledgling Sex Ratios and Baseline Corticosterone in a Forest Songbird

Silviculture (logging) creates a disturbance to forested environments. The degree to which forests are modified depends on the logging prescription and forest stand characteristics. In this study we compared the effects of two methods of group-selection (“moderate” and “heavy”) silviculture (GSS) and undisturbed reference stands on stress and offspring sex ratios of a forest interior species, the Ovenbird (Seiurus aurocapilla), in Algonquin Provincial Park, Canada. Blood samples were taken from nestlings for corticosterone and molecular sexing. We found that logging creates a disturbance that is stressful for nestling Ovenbirds, as illustrated by elevated baseline corticosterone in cut sites. Ovenbirds nesting in undisturbed reference forest produce fewer male offspring per brood (proportion male = 30%) while logging with progressively greater forest disturbance, shifted the offspring sex ratio towards males (proportion male: moderate = 50%, heavy = 70%). If Ovenbirds in undisturbed forests usually produce female-biased broods, then the production of males as a result of logging may disrupt population viability. We recommend a broad examination of nestling sex ratios in response to anthropogenic disturbance to determine the generality of our findings