Analysing the impact of climate change on hydrological ecosystem services in laguna del sauce (Uruguay) using the swat model and remote sensing data

Assessing how climate change will affect hydrological ecosystem services (HES) provision is necessary for long-term planning and requires local comprehensive climate information. In this study, we used SWAT to evaluate the impacts on four HES, natural hazard protection, erosion control regulation and water supply and flow regulation for the Laguna del Sauce catchment in Uruguay. We used downscaled CMIP-5 global climate models for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 projections. We calibrated and validated our SWAT model for the periods 2005 2009 and 2010 2013 based on remote sensed ET data. Monthly NSE and R2 values for calibration and validation were 0.74, 0.64 and 0.79, 0.84, respectively. Our results suggest that climate change will likely negatively affect the water resources of the Laguna del Sauce catchment, especially in the RCP 8.5 scenario. In all RCP scenarios, the catchment is likely to experience a wetting trend, higher temperatures, seasonality shifts and an increase in extreme precipitation events, particularly in frequency and magnitude. This will likely affect water quality provision through runoff and sediment yield inputs, reducing the erosion control HES and likely aggravating eutrophication. Although the amount of water will increase, changes to the hydrological cycle might jeopardize the stability of freshwater supplies and HES on which many people in the south-eastern region of Uruguay depend. Despite streamflow monitoring capacities need to be enhanced to reduce the uncertainty of model results, our findings provide valuable insights for water resources planning in the study area. Hence, water management and monitoring capacities need to be enhanced to reduce the potential negative climate change impacts on HES. The methodological approach presented here, based on satellite ET data can be replicated and adapted to any other place in the world since we employed open-access software and remote sensing data for all the phases of hydrological modelling and HES provision assessment. © 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.This work has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme within the framework of the project SMARTLAGOON under grant agreement No. 101017861. This study was also supported by the State Research Agency of Spain through the excellence certification María de Maeztu (Ref. MDM-2017-0714). Celina Aznarez was supported by the Doctoral INPhINIT–INCOMING program, fellowship code (LCF/BQ/DI20/11780004), from “la Caixa” Foundation (ID 100010434). Javier Senent-Aparicio was supported by the training grant (21201/EE/19) awarded by the Séneca Foundation in the framework of the Jimenez de la Espada Mobility, Cooperation and Internationalization Program. Adrián López-Ballesteros was supported by the Spanish Ministerio de Educación, Cultura y Deporte with an FPU grant (FPU17/00923). Juan Pablo Pacheco was supported by the Sino-Danish Center–Aarhus University, the University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the University of the Republic, Uruguay. This work has received funding from the European Union?s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme within the framework of the project SMARTLAGOON under grant agreement No. 101017861. This study was also supported by the State Research Agency of Spain through the excellence certification Mar?a de Maeztu (Ref. MDM-2017-0714). Celina Aznarez was supported by the Doctoral INPhINIT?INCOMING program, fellowship code (LCF/BQ/DI20/11780004), from ?la Caixa? Foundation (ID 100010434). Javier Senent-Aparicio was supported by the training grant (21201/EE/19) awarded by the S?neca Foundation in the framework of the Jimenez de la Espada Mobility, Cooperation and Internationalization Program. Adri?n L?pez-Ballesteros was supported by the Spanish Ministerio de Educaci?n, Cultura y Deporte with an FPU grant (FPU17/00923). Juan Pablo Pacheco was supported by the Sino-Danish Center?Aarhus University, the University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the University of the Republic, Uruguay. The authors acknowledge Paper Check Proofreading and Editing Services for proofreading the manuscript

Assessment of oceanographic services for the monitoring of highly anthropised coastal lagoons: The Mar Menor case study

Ocean monitoring systems are designed for continuous monitoring to track their evolution and anticipate environmental issues. However, they are often based on IoT systems that offer little spatial coverage and are hard to maintain. Satellite remote sensing offers good geographical coverage but they also face several challenges to become a monitoring system. This paper introduces an easy-to-use software tool to crawl water-quality data from up to 6 satellite instruments from the ESA and NASA. Particularly, Chl-a data is deeply analyzed in terms of reliability and data coverage for a highly anthropised coastal lagoon (Mar Menor, Spain), where serious socio-environmental issues are happening. Our results show a good linear correlation between in situ data and SRS data, reaching values close to 0.9, and stating the relevance of organic matter inputs from ephemeral streams in Chl-a concentrations. Moreover, temporal granularity is increased from 5 to 1.5 days by combining SRS sources.Preprin

Integrated assessment of future potential global change scenarios and their hydrological impacts in coastal aquifers - a new tool to analyse management alternatives in the Plana Oropesa-Torreblanca aquifer

[EN] Any change in the components of the water balance in a coastal aquifer, whether natural or anthropogenic, can alter the freshwater-salt water equilibrium. In this sense climate change (CC) and land use and land cover (LULC) change might significantly influence the availability of groundwater resources in the future. These coastal systems demand an integrated analysis of quantity and quality issues to obtain an appropriate assessment of hydrological impacts using density-dependent flow solutions. The aim of this work is to perform an integrated analysis of future potential global change (GC) scenarios and their hydrological impacts in a coastal aquifer, the Plana Oropesa-Torreblanca aquifer. It is a Mediterranean aquifer that extends over 75 km(2) in which important historical LULC changes have been produced and are planned for the future. Future CC scenarios will be defined by using an equi-feasible and non-feasible ensemble of projections based on the results of a multi-criteria analysis of the series generated from several regional climatic models with different downscaling approaches. The hydrological impacts of these CC scenarios combined with future LULC scenarios will be assessed with a chain of models defined by a sequential coupling of rainfall-recharge models, crop irrigation requirements and irrigation return models (for the aquifer and its neighbours that feed it), and a density-dependent aquifer approach. This chain of models, calibrated using the available historical data, allow testing of the conceptual approximation of the aquifer behaviour. They are also fed with series representatives of potential global change scenarios in order to perform a sensitivity analysis regarding future scenarios of rainfall recharge, lateral flows coming from the hydraulically connected neighbouring aquifer, agricultural recharge (taking into account expected future LULC changes) and sea level rise (SLR). The proposed analysis is valuable for improving our knowledge about the aquifer, and so comprises a tool to design sustainable adaptation management strategies taking into account the uncertainty in future GC conditions and their impacts. The results show that GC scenarios produce significant increases in the variability of flow budget components and in the salinity.This research work has been partially supported by the GESINHIMPADAPT project (CGL2013-48424-C2-2-R) with Spanish MINECO funds, the PMAFI/06/14 project with UCAM funds and the Plan de Garantia Juvenil from MINECO, co-financing by BEI and FSE. 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