Информационные технологии в кредитовании физических лиц

The article is devoted to the special information technologies, which use in modern banks or systems, in crediting of physical persons

Modeling Trap-Awareness and Related Phenomena in Capture-Recapture Studies

Trap-awareness and related phenomena whereby successive capture events are not independent is a feature of the majority of capture-recapture studies. This phenomenon was up to now difficult to incorporate in open population models and most authors have chosen to neglect it although this may have damaging consequences. Focusing on the situation where animals exhibit a trap response at the occasion immediately following one where they have been trapped but revert to their original naïve state if they are missed once, we show that trap-dependence is more naturally viewed as a state transition and is amenable to the current models of capture-recapture. This approach has the potential to accommodate lasting or progressively waning trap effects

Use of Integrated Modeling to Enhance Estimates of Population Dynamics Obtained from Limited Data

International audienceDemographic data of rare and endangered species are often too sparse to estimate vital rates with sufficient precision for understanding population growth and decline. Yet, the combination of different sources of demographic data into one statistical model holds promise. We applied Bayesian integrated population modeling to demographic data from a colony of the endangered greater horseshoe bats (Rhinolophus ferrumequinum). Available data were the number of subadults and adults emerging from the colony roost at dusk, the number newborns from 1991 to 2005, as well as recapture data of subadults and adults from 2004 and 2005. Survival rates did not differ between sexes and demographic rates remained constant across time. The greater horseshoe bat is a long-lived species with high survival rates (first year: 0.49 [SD: 0.06], adults: 0.91 [SD: 0.02]) and low fecundity (0.74 [SD: 0.12]). The yearly average population growth was 4.4%. Had we analyzed each data set separately, we would not have been able to estimate fecundity, the estimates of survival would have been less precise and the estimate of population growth biased. Our results demonstrate that integrated models are suitable for obtaining crucial demographic information from limited data