Climate change impacts on Yangtze River discharge at the Three Gorges Dam

The Yangtze River basin is home to more than 400 million people and contributes to nearly half of China's food production. Therefore, planning for climate change impacts on water resource discharges is essential. We used a physically based distributed hydrological model, Shetran, to simulate discharge in the Yangtze River just below the Three Gorges Dam at Yichang (1007200km2), obtaining an excellent match between simulated and measured daily discharge, with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies of 0.95 for the calibration period (1996–2000) and 0.92 for the validation period (2001–2005). We then used a simple monthly delta change approach for 78 climate model projections (35 different general circulation models – GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to examine the effect of climate change on river discharge for 2041–2070 for Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Projected changes to the basin's annual precipitation varied between −3.6 and +14.8% but increases in temperature and consequently evapotranspiration (calculated using the Thornthwaite equation) were projected by all CMIP5 models, resulting in projected changes in the basin's annual discharge from −29.8 to +16.0%. These large differences were mainly due to the predicted expansion of the summer monsoon north and west into the Yangtze Basin in some CMIP5 models, e.g. CanESM2, but not in others, e.g. CSIRO-Mk3-6-0. This was despite both models being able to simulate current climate well. Until projections of the strength and location of the monsoon under a future climate improve, large uncertainties in the direction and magnitude of future change in discharge for the Yangtze will remain

Towards advancing scientific knowledge of climate change impacts on short-duration rainfall extremes

A large number of recent studies have aimed at understanding short-duration rainfall extremes, due to their impacts on flash floods, landslides and debris flows and potential for these to worsen with global warming. This has been led in a concerted international effort by the INTENSE Crosscutting Project of the GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Exchanges) Hydroclimatology Panel. Here, we summarize the main findings so far and suggest future directions for research, including: the benefits of convection-permitting climate modelling; towards understanding mechanisms of change; the usefulness of temperature-scaling relations; towards detecting and attributing extreme rainfall change; and the need for international coordination and collaboration. Evidence suggests that the intensity of long-duration (1 day+) heavy precipitation increases with climate warming close to the Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) rate (6–7% K−1), although large-scale circulation changes affect this response regionally. However, rare events can scale at higher rates, and localized heavy short-duration (hourly and sub-hourly) intensities can respond more strongly (e.g. 2 × CC instead of CC). Day-to-day scaling of short-duration intensities supports a higher scaling, with mechanisms proposed for this related to local-scale dynamics of convective storms, but its relevance to climate change is not clear. Uncertainty in changes to precipitation extremes remains and is influenced by many factors, including large-scale circulation, convective storm dynamics andstratification. Despite this, recent research has increased confidence in both the detectability and understanding of changes in various aspects of intense short-duration rainfall. To make further progress, the international coordination of datasets, model experiments and evaluations will be required, with consistent and standardized comparison methods and metrics, and recommendations are made for these frameworks

Dry getting drier – The future of transnational river basins in Iberia

Study region: Main international rivers of Iberia (SW Europe): Douro, Tagus and Guadiana. Study focus: Iberia has long suffered from water scarcity which will worsen with projected reductions in rainfall and increases in temperature. Nonetheless, there has been almost no research concerning the future discharges of these rivers. We examine an ensemble of climate model projections from CMIP5 RCP 8.5 and use two downscaling methods to produce a range of changes in discharge using a physically-based, spatially-distributed hydrological model (SHETRAN) for historical (1961–1990) and future (2040–2070) periods. New hydrological insights for the region: There is uncertainty in the sign of change in high (winter) discharges but most model runs show decreases in monthly, seasonal and annual discharges for all basins; especially for medium and low discharges, with all but one run showing future decreases. The magnitude of these decreases varies significantly for different CMIP5 ensemble members. However, autumn shows the biggest decreases (reaching −61% for the Douro, −71% in the Tagus, and −92% for the Guadiana) and the reductions are consistently larger for the Guadiana. This is the first study to explore a wide range of possible futures for these international basins. We show that, despite uncertainties in model projections, there is common behavior with reductions in mean and especially in low discharges which will have important implications for water resources, populations, ecology and agriculture

Päivittäisasioinnin palveluketju Case Nooa Säästöpankki Oy

Tein opinnäytetyöni toimeksiantona Nooa Säästöpankki Oy:lle. Työn tavoitteena oli tutkia päivittäisasioinnin palveluketjua. Tarkoituksena oli tuottaa Nooa Säästöpankille henkilöasiakkaan päivittäisasioinnin palveluketjun kuvaus, keskittyen tarkkojen tuote- ja järjestelmäkuvausten sijasta enemmänkin Nooan toimintatapaan, myyntiin ja myyntiprosessiin sekä käytännön vinkkeihin. Kilpailutilanne pankkialalla, kuten muillakin toimialoilla, on kiristynyt. Perinteinen pankkius-kollisuus on muisto vain, ja asiakas saattaa vaihtaa pankkia heti kun saa paremman tarjouksen muualta. Jatkuvasti kiristyvässä kilpailutilanteessa taistelu asiakkaista on kovaa. Sekä asiak-kuuksien saaminen että säilyttäminen on haasteellista. Yksi parhaista tavoista erottua kilpailijoista, on kokonaisvaltainen palvelu. Mitä paremmin asiakasta palvellaan ja mitä laajemmin asiakkaan tarpeet otetaan huomioon ja pyritään ratkaisemaan, sitä korkeampi on asiakkaan kynnys lähteä kilpailuttamaan palveluitaan. Tasaisen korkealaatuinen myyntiprosessi on avain asiakastyytyväisyyteen. Se edellyttää, että jokainen yrityksen työntekijä tuntee yhteiset toimintatavat ja noudattaa niitä. Päivittäisasioinnin prosessi voidaan nähdä yhtenä Nooa Säästöpankin tärkeimpänä prosessina. Päivittäisasioinnin palveluissa toimivat henkilöt ovat yrityksen näkyvin osa ja antavat kasvot yritykselle. Siksi onkin tärkeää, että jokainen päivittäispalveluissa toimiva myyjä, etenkin uusi työntekijä, ymmärtää niin roolinsa pankin kasvoina kuin myös mahdollisuutensa havaita asiakkaan tarpeet ensimmäisenä ja jopa ainoana. Pankin päivittäispalveluissa toimivat henkilöt tapaavat päivässä ylivoimaisesti eniten asiakkaita, ja tämä tosiasia on osattava pankissa hyödyntää. Tutkimus toteutettiin kvalitatiivisena eli laadullisena tutkimuksena. Tutkimusmenetelmäksi valittiin tapaustutkimus koska tutkimuksen kohteena on yksi yksittäinen tapaus, prosessi. Aineisto kerättiin erilaisia kirjallisia ja virtuaalisia dokumentteja tutkien, sekä havainnoimalla. Tutkittava kohde on ainutlaatuinen, ja siitä on vaikea saada syvällistä tietoa muulla tavoin kuin havainnoimalla. Opinnäytetyön tekijä itse on työskennellyt yrityksessä vuodesta 2009 ja päässyt näin ollen tekemään lukuisia havaintoja prosessin kulusta. Nämä havainnot toimivat tärkeänä aineistona tutkimusta tehdessä. Tutkimuksen tuloksena saatu päivittäisasioinnin palveluketjun kuvaus tukee päivittäisasioinnin palveluissa toimivaa henkilöä myynnillisen toimintatavan omaksumisessa. Uskon työstä olevan hyötyä sekä yritykselle sekä loppukäyttäjälle. Työn tuloksia ei suoraan pystytä käyttämään hyväksi muualla, mutta soveltaen siitä voi olla hyötyä myös muille pankeille.The service chain in day-to-day banking – Case Nooa Savings Bank Ltd This thesis was made as an assignment for Nooa Savings Bank. The purpose of this thesis was to investigate the service chain in day-to-day banking for private customers and to produce a description of the process for Nooa Savings Bank. The main focus was on the course of action, the selling process and practical suggestions for improvement rather than just focusing on exact product and system descriptions. Competition in the banking sector is fiercer than ever, and traditional customer loyalty has greatly diminished. Customers are more likely to switch bank if they get a better offer elsewhere, and banks must struggle to acquire new customers as well as retain old ones. The best way to stand out from the competition is to offer a comprehensive service. The better the bank serves its customers and provides solutions to their individual needs the more unlikely it becomes that they might switch to another bank. A fair and high quality selling process is the key to customer satisfaction. This requires that every employee in the company is aware of the goals of the organization and is able to act in accordance with them. The service chain in day-to-day banking can be seen as one of the most important processes in Nooa Savings Bank. The employees involved in the process play a key role and by virtue of their position at the customer interface constitute the face of the company. For this reason it is extremely important that every salesman working in day-to-day banking services and especially new employees understand their roles as the face of the bank as well as their opportunity to be the first and possibly the only one to observe the needs of the customer. These employees meet the overwhelming majority of customers and this is a fact that the bank has to use to its advantage. The research was conducted using a qualitative research method with the case study as chosen research method because the object of the study was a single case and one process. Data was gathered by studying written and virtual documents and by observation. The object of the study is unique and it would be difficult to get significant information in any other way than by observing. The author of the thesis herself has worked at Nooa Savings Bank since 2009 and therefore has been able to make several observations of the course of the process. These observations can be considered as valuable data in this research. The description of the service chain in day-to-day banking which was produced as result of the research can help the new employee to absorb the sales oriented procedures more rapidly. I believe that the results of the thesis will be useful for Nooa Savings Bank as well as for the end user. The results can not directly be taken advantage of by others but indirectly they can be useful for other banks

Additional file 1 of Prediabetes remission after bariatric surgery: a 4-years follow-up study

Additional file 1: Supplementary Table 1. Loss of follow-up per year

Cranial imaging findings in neurobrucellosis: results of Istanbul-3 study

Objective Neuroimaging abnormalities in central nervous system (CNS) brucellosis are not well documented. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the prevalence of imaging abnormalities in neurobrucellosis and to identify factors associated with leptomeningeal and basal enhancement, which frequently results in unfavorable outcomes