Tendency Bias Correction in Coupled and Uncoupled Global Climate Models with a Focus on Impacts over North America

We revisit the bias correction problem in current climate models, taking advantage of state-of-the-art atmospheric reanalysis data and new data assimilation tools that simplify the estimation of short-term (6 hourly) atmospheric tendency errors. The focus is on the extent to which correcting biases in atmospheric tendencies improves the models climatology, variability, and ultimately forecast skill at subseasonal and seasonal time scales. Results are presented for the NASA GMAO GEOS model in both uncoupled (atmosphere only) and coupled (atmosphereocean) modes. For the uncoupled model, the focus is on correcting a stunted North Pacific jet and a dry bias over the central United States during boreal summerlong-standing errors that are indeed common to many current AGCMs. The results show that the tendency bias correction (TBC) eliminates the jet bias and substantially increases the precipitation over the Great Plains. These changes are accompanied by much improved (increased) storm-track activity throughout the northern midlatitudes. For the coupled model, the atmospheric TBCs produce substantial improvements in the simulated mean climate and its variability, including a much reduced SST warm bias, more realistic ENSO-related SST variability and teleconnections, and much improved subtropical jets and related submonthly transient wave activity. Despite these improvements, the improvement in subseasonal and seasonal forecast skill over North America is only modest at best. The reasons for this, which are presumably relevant to any forecast system, involve the competing influences of predictability loss with time and the time it takes for climate drift to first have a significant impact on forecast skill

A Modeling Study of the Spring 2011 Extreme US Weather Activity

The spring of 2011 was characterized by record-breaking tornadic activity with substantial loss of life and destruction of property. While a waning La Nina and other atmospheric teleconnections have been implicated in the development of these extreme weather events, a quantitative assessment of their causes is still lacking. This study uses high resolution (1/4 lat/lon) GEOS-5 AGCM experiments to quantify the role of SSTs and soil moisture in the development of the extreme weather activity with a focus on April - the month of peak tornadic activity. The simulations, consisting of 22-member ensembles of three-month long simulations (initialized March 1st) reproduce the main features of the observed large-scale changes including the below-normal temperature and above-normal precipitation in the Central US, and the hot and dry conditions to the south. Various sensitivity experiments are conducted to separate the roles of the SST, soil moisture and the initial atmospheric conditions in the development and predictability of the atmospheric conditions (wind shear, moisture, etc.) favoring the severe weather activity and flooding

Free-charge carrier parameters of n-type, p-type and compensated InN:Mg determined by Infrared Spectroscopic Ellipsometry

Infrared spectroscopic ellipsometry is applied to investigate the free-charge carrier properties of Mg-doped InN films. Two representative sets of In-polar InN grown by molecular beam epitaxy with Mg concentrations ranging from $1.2\times10^{17}$ cm$^{-3}$ to $8\times10^{20}$ cm$^{-3}$ are compared. P-type conductivity is indicated for the Mg concentration range of $1\times10^{18}$ cm$^{-3}$ to $9\times10^{19}$ cm$^{-3}$ from a systematic investigation of the longitudinal optical phonon plasmon broadening and the mobility parameter in dependence of the Mg concentration. A parameterized model that accounts for the phonon-plasmon coupling is applied to determine the free-charge carrier concentration and mobility parameters in the doped bulk InN layer as well as the GaN template and undoped InN buffer layer for each sample. The free-charge carrier properties in the second sample set are consistent with the results determined in a comprehensive analysis of the first sample set reported earlier [Sch\"oche et al., J. Appl. Phys. 113, 013502 (2013)]. In the second set, two samples with Mg concentration of $2.3\times10^{20}$ cm$^{-3}$ are identified as compensated n-type InN with very low electron concentrations which are suitable for further investigation of intrinsic material properties that are typically governed by high electron concentrations even in undoped InN. The compensated n-type InN samples can be clearly distinguished from the p-type conductive material of similar plasma frequencies by strongly reduced phonon plasmon broadening

Poly(2-cyclopropyl-2-oxazoline): from rate acceleration by Cyclopropyl to Thermoresponsive properties

The synthesis and microwave-assisted living cationic ring-opening polymerization of 2-cyclopropyl-2-oxazoline is reported revealing the fastest polymerization for an aliphatic substituted 2-oxazoline to date, which is ascribed to the electron withdrawing effect of the cyclopropyl group. The poly(2-cyclopropyl-2-oxazoline) (pCPropOx) represents an alternative thermo-responsive poly(2-oxazoline) with a reversible critical temperature close to body temperature. The cloud point (CP) of the obtained pCPropOx in aqueous solution was evaluated in detail by turbidimetry, dynamic light scattering (DLS) and viscosity measurements. pCPropOx is amorphous with a significantly higher glass transition temperature (T(g) similar to 80 degrees C) compared to the amorphous poly(2-n-propyl-2-oxazoline) (pnPropOx) (T(g) similar to 40 degrees C), while poly(2-isopropyl-2-oxazoline) piPropOx is semicrystalline. In addition, a pCPropOx comb polymer was prepared by methacrylic acid end-capping of the living cationic species followed by RAFT polymerization of the macromonomer. The polymer architecture does not influence the concentration dependence of the CP, however, both the CP and T(g) of the comb polymer are lower due to the increased number of hydrophobic end groups

Potential Predictability of the Monsoon Subclimate Systems

While El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon can be predicted with some success using coupled oceanic-atmospheric models, the skill of predicting the tropical monsoons is low regardless of the methods applied. The low skill of monsoon prediction may be either because the monsoons are not defined appropriately or because they are not influenced significantly by boundary forcing. The latter characterizes the importance of internal dynamics in monsoon variability and leads to many eminent chaotic features of the monsoons. In this study, we analyze results from nine AMIP-type ensemble experiments with the NASA/GEOS-2 general circulation model to assess the potential predictability of the tropical climate system. We will focus on the variability and predictability of tropical monsoon rainfall on seasonal-to-interannual time scales. It is known that the tropical climate is more predictable than its extratropical counterpart. However, predictability is different from one climate subsystem to another within the tropics. It is important to understand the differences among these subsystems in order to increase our skill of seasonal-to-interannual prediction. We assess potential predictability by comparing the magnitude of internal and forced variances as defined by Harzallah and Sadourny (1995). The internal variance measures the spread among the various ensemble members. The forced part of rainfall variance is determined by the magnitude of the ensemble mean rainfall anomaly and by the degree of consistency of the results from the various experiments

Thermoelectric Properties of Intermetallic Semiconducting RuIn3 and Metallic IrIn3

Low temperature (<400 K) thermoelectric properties of semiconducting RuIn3 and metallic IrIn3 are reported. RuIn3 is a narrow band gap semiconductor with a large n-type Seebeck coefficient at room temperature (S(290K)~400 {\mu}V/K), but the thermoelectric Figure of merit (ZT(290K) = 0.007) is small because of high electrical resistivity and thermal conductivity ({\kappa}(290 K) ~ 2.0 W/m K). IrIn3 is a metal with low thermopower at room temperature (S(290K)~20 {\mu}V/K) . Iridium substitution on the ruthenium site has a dramatic effect on transport properties, which leads to a large improvement in the power factor and corresponding Figure of merit (ZT(380 K) = 0.053), improving the efficiency of the material by an over of magnitude.Comment: Submitted to JA

A Systematic Approach to Isolating the Causes and Impacts of Climate Model Bias Employing Analysis Increments

One of the most promising approaches to isolating the causes and understanding the impacts of climate model formulation errors is through the utilization of information contained in short-term forecast errors. The underlying assumption being that by capturing the errors at the very early stages of growth (before nonlinearities develop), we should be able to associate those errors with specific deficiencies in the model's formulation of the relevant physical processes. Here, we provide an example of utilizing the long-term mean of the 6-hourly analysis increments (first guess forecast minus analysis) produced by MERRA-2 to correct the NASA/GEOS AGCM over well-defined regions, thereby allowing us to quantify how the reduced tendency errors in these regions manifest themselves both locally and remotely through large-scale teleconnections to reduce the model's climatological biases. We extend previous work (focused on boreal summer) to address the full annual cycle of model bias. A key result is the large seasonality of the errors over the Tibet region and their impacts on the Northern Hemisphere jet biases, and related precipitation and temperature biases over North American. Attempts to correct the phase and amplitude errors of the climatological boreal winter ridge over western North America (a likely key requirement for improving winter climate forecasts over North America) reveal a surprising complexity in the sources of the errors in what is otherwise manifest as a rather simple PNA-like bias structure

Poincar\'e Husimi representation of eigenstates in quantum billiards

For the representation of eigenstates on a Poincar\'e section at the boundary of a billiard different variants have been proposed. We compare these Poincar\'e Husimi functions, discuss their properties and based on this select one particularly suited definition. For the mean behaviour of these Poincar\'e Husimi functions an asymptotic expression is derived, including a uniform approximation. We establish the relation between the Poincar\'e Husimi functions and the Husimi function in phase space from which a direct physical interpretation follows. Using this, a quantum ergodicity theorem for the Poincar\'e Husimi functions in the case of ergodic systems is shown.Comment: 17 pages, 5 figures. Figs. 1,2,5 are included in low resolution only. For a version with better resolution see http://www.physik.tu-dresden.de/~baecker