A systematic comparison of tropical waves over northern Africa. Part II: Dynamics and thermodynamics

This study presents the first systematic comparison of the (thermo-)dynamics associated with all major tropical wave types causing rainfall modulation over northern tropical Africa: Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Equatorial Rossby waves (ERs), mixed Rossby-gravity waves (MRGs), Kelvin waves, tropical disturbances (TDs, including African Easterly Waves), and eastward inertio-gravity waves (EIGs). Reanalysis and radiosonde data were analyzed for the period 1981--2013 based on space-time filtering of outgoing longwave radiation. The identified circulation patterns are largely consistent with theory. The slow modes, MJO and ER, mainly impact precipitable water, whereas the faster Kelvin waves, MRGs, and TDs primarily modulate moisture convergence. Monsoonal inflow intensifies during wet phases of the MJO, ERs, and MRGs, associated with a northward shift of the intertropical discontinuity for MJO and ERs. During passages of vertically tilted imbalanced wave modes, such as MJO, Kelvin waves, and TDs, and partly MRGs, increased vertical wind shear and improved conditions for up- and downdrafts facilitate the organization of convection. The balanced ERs are not tilted and rainfall is triggered by large-scale moistening and stratiform lifting. The MJO and ERs interact with intraseasonal variations of the Indian monsoon and extratropical Rossby wave trains. The latter causes a trough over the Atlas Mountains associated with a tropical plume and rainfall over the Sahara. Positive North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillation signals precede tropical plumes in case of the MJO. The results unveil which dynamical processes need to be modeled realistically to represent the coupling between tropical waves and rainfall in northern tropical Africa.Comment: 33 pages, 11 figures, supplementary material; submitted to Journal of Climat

A systematic comparison of tropical waves over northern Africa. Part I: Influence on rainfall

Low-latitude rainfall variability on the daily to intraseasonal timescale is often related to tropical waves, including convectively coupled equatorial waves, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and tropical disturbances. Despite the importance of rainfall variability for vulnerable societies in tropical Africa, the relative influence of tropical waves for this region is largely unknown. This article presents the first systematic comparison of the impact of six wave types on precipitation over northern tropical Africa during the transition and full monsoon seasons, using two satellite products and a dense rain gauge network. Composites of rainfall anomalies in the different datasets show} comparable modulation intensities in the West Sahel and at the Guinea Coast, varying from less than 2 to above 7 mm/d depending on the wave type. African Easterly Waves (AEWs) and Kelvin waves dominate the 3-hourly to daily timescale and explain 10-30% locally. On longer timescales (7-20d), only the MJO and equatorial Rossby (ER) waves remain as modulating factors and explain about up to one third of rainfall variability. Eastward inertio-gravity waves and mixed Rossby-gravity (MRG) waves are comparatively unimportant. An analysis of wave superposition shows that low-frequency waves (MJO, ER) in their wet phase amplify the activity of high-frequency waves (TD, MRG) and suppress them in the dry phase. The results stress that more attention should be paid to tropical waves when forecasting rainfall over northern tropical Africa.Comment: 34 pages, 12 figures, supplementary material; submitted to Journal of Climat

Statistical forecasts for the occurrence of precipitation outperform global models over northern Tropical Africa

Short‐term global ensemble predictions of rainfall currently have no skill over northern tropical Africa when compared to simple climatology‐based forecasts, even after sophisticated statistical postprocessing. Here, we demonstrate that 1‐day statistical forecasts for the probability of precipitation occurrence based on a simple logistic regression model have considerable potential for improvement. The new approach we present here relies on gridded rainfall estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission for July‐September 1998–2017 and uses rainfall amounts from the pixels that show the highest positive and negative correlations on the previous two days as input. Forecasts using this model are reliable and have a higher resolution and better skill than climatology‐based forecasts. The good performance is related to westward propagating African easterly waves and embedded mesoscale convective systems. The statistical model is outmatched by the postprocessed dynamical forecast in the dry outer tropics only, where extratropical influences are important.Plain Language Summary: Forecasts of precipitation for the next few days based on state‐of‐the‐art weather models are currently inaccurate over northern tropical Africa, even after systematic forecast errors are corrected statistically. In this paper, we show that we can use rainfall observations from the previous 2 days to improve 1‐day predictions of precipitation occurrence. Such an approach works well over this region, as rainfall systems tend to travel from the east to the west organized by flow patterns several kilometers above the ground, called African easterly waves. This statistical forecast model requires training over a longer time period (here 19 years) to establish robust relationships on which future predictions can be based. The input data employed are gridded rainfall estimates based on satellite data for the African summer monsoon in July to September. The new method outperforms all other methods currently available on a day‐to‐day basis over the region, except for the dry outer tropics, where influences from midlatitudes, which are better captured by weather models, become more important.Key Points: Raw and statistically postprocessed global ensemble forecasts fail to predict West African rainfall occurrence. A logistic regression model using observations from preceding days outperforms all other types of forecasts. The skill of the statistical model is mainly related to propagating African easterly waves and mesoscale convective systems.Deutsche ForschungsgemeinschaftKlaus Tschira Stiftun

Adaptation of maize source leaf metabolism to stress related disturbances in carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus balance

Schlueter U, Colmsee C, Scholz U, et al. Adaptation of maize source leaf metabolism to stress related disturbances in carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus balance. BMC Genomics. 2013;14(1): 442.Background: Abiotic stress causes disturbances in the cellular homeostasis. Re-adjustment of balance in carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus metabolism therefore plays a central role in stress adaptation. However, it is currently unknown which parts of the primary cell metabolism follow common patterns under different stress conditions and which represent specific responses. Results: To address these questions, changes in transcriptome, metabolome and ionome were analyzed in maize source leaves from plants suffering low temperature, low nitrogen (N) and low phosphorus (P) stress. The selection of maize as study object provided data directly from an important crop species and the so far underexplored C-4 metabolism. Growth retardation was comparable under all tested stress conditions. The only primary metabolic pathway responding similar to all stresses was nitrate assimilation, which was down-regulated. The largest group of commonly regulated transcripts followed the expression pattern: down under low temperature and low N, but up under low P. Several members of this transcript cluster could be connected to P metabolism and correlated negatively to different phosphate concentration in the leaf tissue. Accumulation of starch under low temperature and low N stress, but decrease in starch levels under low P conditions indicated that only low P treated leaves suffered carbon starvation. Conclusions: Maize employs very different strategies to manage N and P metabolism under stress. While nitrate assimilation was regulated depending on demand by growth processes, phosphate concentrations changed depending on availability, thus building up reserves under excess conditions. Carbon and energy metabolism of the C-4 maize leaves were particularly sensitive to P starvation

Metabolic Adaptation, a Specialized Leaf Organ Structure and Vascular Responses to Diurnal N-2 Fixation by Nostoc azollae Sustain the Astonishing Productivity of Azolla Ferns without Nitrogen Fertilizer

Brouwer P, Bräutigam A, Buijs VA, et al. Metabolic Adaptation, a Specialized Leaf Organ Structure and Vascular Responses to Diurnal N-2 Fixation by Nostoc azollae Sustain the Astonishing Productivity of Azolla Ferns without Nitrogen Fertilizer. Frontiers in Plant Science. 2017;8: 442.Sustainable agriculture demands reduced input of man-made nitrogen (N) fertilizer, yet N-2 fixation limits the productivity of crops with heterotrophic diazotrophic bacterial symbionts. We investigated floating ferns from the genus Azolla that host phototrophic diazotrophic Nostoc azollae in leaf pockets and belong to the fastest growing plants. Experimental production reported here demonstrated N-fertilizer independent production of nitrogen-rich biomass with an annual yield potential per ha of 1200 kg(-1) N fixed and 35 t dry biomass. N-15(2) fixation peaked at noon, reaching 0.4 mg N g(-1) dry weight h(-1). Azolla ferns therefore merit consideration as protein crops in spite of the fact that little is known about the fern's physiology to enable domestication. To gain an understanding of their nitrogen physiology, analyses of fern diel transcript profiles under differing nitrogen fertilizer regimes were combined with microscopic observations. Results established that the ferns adapted to the phototrophic N-2-fixing symbionts N. azollae by (1) adjusting metabolically to nightly absence of N supply using responses ancestral to ferns and seed plants; (2) developing a specialized xylem-rich vasculature surrounding the leaf-pocket organ; (3) responding to N-supply by controlling transcripts of genes mediating nutrient transport, allocation and vasculature development. Unlike other non-seed plants, the Azolla fern clock is shown to contain both the morning and evening loops; the evening loop is known to control rhythmic gene expression in the vasculature of seed plants and therefore may have evolved along with the vasculature in the ancestor of ferns and seed plants

The Crowdsourced Replication Initiative: Investigating Immigration and Social Policy Preferences. Executive Report.

In an era of mass migration, social scientists, populist parties and social movements raise concerns over the future of immigration-destination societies. What impacts does this have on policy and social solidarity? Comparative cross-national research, relying mostly on secondary data, has findings in different directions. There is a threat of selective model reporting and lack of replicability. The heterogeneity of countries obscures attempts to clearly define data-generating models. P-hacking and HARKing lurk among standard research practices in this area.This project employs crowdsourcing to address these issues. It draws on replication, deliberation, meta-analysis and harnessing the power of many minds at once. The Crowdsourced Replication Initiative carries two main goals, (a) to better investigate the linkage between immigration and social policy preferences across countries, and (b) to develop crowdsourcing as a social science method. The Executive Report provides short reviews of the area of social policy preferences and immigration, and the methods and impetus behind crowdsourcing plus a description of the entire project. Three main areas of findings will appear in three papers, that are registered as PAPs or in process

Genome-wide identification and phenotypic characterization of seizure-associated copy number variations in 741,075 individuals

Copy number variants (CNV) are established risk factors for neurodevelopmental disorders with seizures or epilepsy. With the hypothesis that seizure disorders share genetic risk factors, we pooled CNV data from 10,590 individuals with seizure disorders, 16,109 individuals with clinically validated epilepsy, and 492,324 population controls and identified 25 genome-wide significant loci, 22 of which are novel for seizure disorders, such as deletions at 1p36.33, 1q44, 2p21-p16.3, 3q29, 8p23.3-p23.2, 9p24.3, 10q26.3, 15q11.2, 15q12-q13.1, 16p12.2, 17q21.31, duplications at 2q13, 9q34.3, 16p13.3, 17q12, 19p13.3, 20q13.33, and reciprocal CNVs at 16p11.2, and 22q11.21. Using genetic data from additional 248,751 individuals with 23 neuropsychiatric phenotypes, we explored the pleiotropy of these 25 loci. Finally, in a subset of individuals with epilepsy and detailed clinical data available, we performed phenome-wide association analyses between individual CNVs and clinical annotations categorized through the Human Phenotype Ontology (HPO). For six CNVs, we identified 19 significant associations with specific HPO terms and generated, for all CNVs, phenotype signatures across 17 clinical categories relevant for epileptologists. This is the most comprehensive investigation of CNVs in epilepsy and related seizure disorders, with potential implications for clinical practice